A statistical model of climates in the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We describe an empirical-statistical model of climates of the southwestern United States. Boundary conditions include sea surface temperatures, atmospheric transmissivity, and topography. Independent variables are derived from the boundary conditions along 1000-km paths of atmospheric circulation. ... Predictor equations are derived over a larger region than the application area to allow for the increased range of paleoclimate. This larger region is delimited by the autocorrelation properties of climatic data.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Biomass and reproduction of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) off the Pacific northwestern United States, 2003–2005

The Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) is distributed along the west coast of North America from Baja California to British Columbia. This article presents estimates of biomass, spawning biomass, and related biological parameters based on four trawl-ichthyoplankton surveys conducted during July 2003 –March 2005 off Oregon and Washington. The trawl-based biomass estimates, serving as relative abundance, were 198,600 t (coefficient of variation [CV] = 0.51) in July 2003, 20,100 t (0.8) in March 2004, 77,900 t (0.34) in July 2004, and 30,100 t (0.72) in March 2005 over an area close to 200,000 km2. The biomass estimates, high in July and low in March, are a strong indication of migration in and out of this area. Sardine spawn in July off the Pacific Northwest (PNW) coast and none of the sampled fish had spawned in March. The estimated spawning biomass for July 2003 and July 2004 was 39,184 t (0.57) and 84,120 t (0.93), respectively. The average active female sardine in the PNW spawned every 20–40 days compared to every 6–8 days off California. The spawning habitat was located in the southeastern area off the PNW coast, a shift from the northwest area off the PNW coast in the 1990s. Egg production in off the PNW for 2003–04 was lower than that off California and that in the 1990s. Because the biomass of Pacific sardine off the PNW appears to be supported heavily by migratory fish from California, the sustainability of the local PNW population relies on the stability of the population off California, and on local oceanographic conditions for local residence.

Geomorphological Evolution of Estuaries: The Dynamic Basis for Morpho-Sedimentary Units in Selected Estuaries in the Northeastern United States

The coastal geomorphological processes of alongshore transport and tidal currents are interacting with the attendant influences of sea-level rise and sediment supply to generate morphosedimentary units in selected estuarine systems. Constrained by the conditions promoted by microtidal situations in barrier island settings, vectors of sediment transport have established spatial sequences of morphologies and sediment types that are components of shellfish habitats. Greater depth and decreasing grain-size toward the mainland are common characteristics in five northeastern U.S. estuarine systems. The patterns are repeated at various scales among the lagoon-type estuaries as well as within the estuarine settings to establish geospatial associations of geomorphology and habitat.

Synthesis of marine ecosystem monitoring activities for the United States Virgin Islands: 1990-2009

The ecological integrity of coral reef ecosystems in the U.S. Caribbean is widely considered to have deteriorated in the last three decades due to a range of threats and stressors from both human and non-human processes Rothenberger 2008, Wilkinson 2008). In response to the threats to Caribbean coral reef ecosystems and other regions around the world, the United States Government authorized the Coral Reef Conservation Act of 2000 to: (1) preserve, sustain, and restore the condition of coral reef ecosystems; (2) promote the wise management and sustainable use of coral reef ecosystems to benefit local communities and the Nation; and (3) develop sound scientific information on the condition of coral reef ecosystems and the threats to such ecosystems. The Act also resulted in the formation of a National Coral Reef Action Strategy and a Coral Reef Conservation Program. The Action Strategy (Goal 2 of Action Theme 1) outlined the importance of monitoring and assessing coral reef health as a mechanism toward reducing many threats to these ecosystems. Monitoring was considered of high importance in addressing impacts from climate change; disease; overfishing; destructive fishing practices; habitat destruction; invasive species; coastal development; coastal pollution; sedimentation/runoff and overuse from tourism. The strategy states that successful coral reef ecosystem conservation requires adaptive management that responds quickly to changing environmental conditions. This, in turn, depends on monitoring programs that track trends in coral reef ecosystem health and reveal patterns in their condition before irreparable harm occurs. As such, monitoring plays a vital role in guiding and supporting the establishment of complex or potentially controversial management strategies such as no-take ecological reserves, fishing gear restrictions, or habitat restoration, by documenting the impacts of gaps in existing management schemes and illustrating the effectiveness of new measures over time. Long-term monitoring is also required to determine the effectiveness of various management strategies to conserve and enhance coral reef ecosystems.

The state of coral reef ecosystems of the United States and Pacific Freely Associated States: 2008

In the past decade, increased awareness regarding the declining condition of U.S. coral reefs has prompted various actions by governmental and non-governmental organizations. Presidential Executive Order 13089 created the U.S. Coral Reef Task Force (USCRTF) in 1998 to coordinate federal and state/territorial activities (Clinton, 1998), and the Coral Reef Conservation Act of 2000 provided Congressional funding for activities to conserve these important ecosystems, including mapping, monitoring and assessment projects carried out through the support of NOAA’s CRCP. Numerous collaborations forged among federal agencies and state, local, non-governmental, academic and private partners now support a variety of monitoring activities. This report shares the results of many of these monitoring activities, relying heavily on quantitative, spatially-explicit data that has been collected in the recent past and comparisons with historical data where possible. The success of this effort can be attributed to the dedication of over 270 report contributors who comprised the expert writing teams in the jurisdictions and contributed to the National Level Activities and National Summary chapters. The scope and content of this report are the result of their dedication to this considerable collaborative effort. Ultimately, the goal of this report is to answer the difficult but vital question: what is the condition of U.S. coral reef ecosystems? The report attempts to base a response on the best available science emerging from coral reef ecosystem monitoring programs in 15 jurisdictions across the country. However, few monitoring programs have been in place for longer than a decade, and many have been initiated only within the past two to five years. A few jurisdictions are just beginning to implement monitoring programs and face challenges stemming from a lack of basic habitat maps and other ecosystem data in addition to adequate training, capacity building, and technical support. There is also a general paucity of historical data describing the condition of ecosystem resources before major human impacts occurred, which limits any attempt to present the current conditions within an historical context and contributes to the phenomenon of shifting baselines (Jackson, 1997; Jackson et al., 2001; Pandolfi et al., 2005).

Anomalous atmospheric circulation and large winter floods in six subregions of the southwestern United States

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We examined atmospheric circulation conditions conducive to occurrence of winter floods that exceed the 10-year peak discharge on rivers in six hydroclimatic subregions in Arizona, southern Utah, Nevada, and California. ... This relationship between flooding and broad-scale atmospheric patterns in the modern record will aid in paleoclimatic interpretations of paleoflood records over the last few thousand years.

Fishery resources of the United States of America

The term “fishery resources” is used in this book with a broad application. It includes the populations of the fishes and other organisms useful to men, the environment that makes life possible for them, the industry that exploits and utilizes them, and our knowledge about them by which we can conserve their productivity. This book aims to survey the present status of all these aspects of those fishery resources that are used or are available for use by United States anglers and commercial fishermen. It is planned primarily for the Congress, at its request, with the idea of giving to busy people, in condensed fashion, a perspective on its subject. (pdf contains 142 pages)

Panel Discussion - Management of Eurasian watermilfoil in the United States using native insects: State regulatory and management issues

While researchers have evaluated the potential of native insect herbivores to manage nonindigenous aquatic plant species such as Eurasian watermilfoil ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.), the practical matters of regulatory compliance and implementation have been neglected. A panel of aquatic nuisance species program managers from three state natural resource management agencies (Minnesota, Vermont and Washington) discussed their regulatory and policy concerns. In addition, one ecological consultant attempting to market one of the native insects to manage Eurasian watermilfoil added his perspective on the special challenges of distributing a native biological control agent for management of Eurasian watermilfoil.

Fish assemblages and indicator species: reef fishes off the southeastern United States

For many fish stocks, resource management cannot be based on stock assessment because data are insufficient-a situation that requires alternative approaches to management. One possible approach is to manage data-limited stocks as part of an assemblage and to determine the status of the entire unit by a data-rich indicator species. The utility of this approach was evaluated in analyses of 15 years of commercial and 34 years of recreational logbook data from reef fisheries off the southeastern United States coast. Multivariate statistical analyses successfully revealed three primary assemblages. Within assemblages, however, there was little evidence of synchrony in population dynamics of member species, and thus, no support for the use of indicator species. Nonetheless, assemblages could prove useful as management units. Their identification offers opportunities for implementing management to address such ecological considerations as bycatch and species interrelations.

Juvenile fish assemblages collected on unconsolidated sediments of the southeast United States continental shelf

Patterns were investigated in juvenile fish use of unconsolidated sediments on the southeast United States continental shelf off Georgia. Juvenile fish and environmental data were sampled at ten stations along a 110-km cross-shelf transect, including four stations surrounding Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (Gray’s Reef NMFS). Cross-shelf stations were sampled approximately quarterly from spring 2000 to winter 2002. Additional stations were sampled on three transects inshore of Gray’s Reef NMS and four transects offshore of the Sanctuary during three cruises to investigate along-shelf patterns in the juvenile fish assemblages. Samples were collected in beam trawls, and 121 juvenile taxa, of which 33 were reef-associated species, were identified. Correspondence analysis on untransformed juvenile fish abundance indicated a cross-shelf gradient in assemblages, and the station groupings and assemblages varied seasonally. During the spring, fall, and winter, three cross-shelf regions were identified: inner-shelf, mid-shelf, and outer-shelf regions. In the summer, the shelf consisted of a single juvenile fish assemblage. Water depth was the primary environmental variable correlated with cross-shelf assemblages. However, salinity, density, and water column stratification also correlated with the distribution of assemblages during the spring, fall, and winter, and along with temperature likely influenced the distribution of juvenile fish. No along-shelf spatial patterns were found in the juvenile fish assemblages, but the along-shelf dimension sampled was small (~60 km). Our results revealed that a number of commercially and recreationally important species used unconsolidated sediments on the shelf off Georgia as juvenile habitat. We conclude that management efforts would be improved through a greater recognition of the importance of these habitats to fish production and the interconnectedness of multiple habitats in the southeast U.S. continental shelf ecosystem.

Population assessment of two stocks of white grunt, Haemulon plumieri, from the southeastern coast of the United States

Changes in the age structure and population size of white grunt, Haemulon plumieri, from North Carolina through the Florida Keys were examined using records of landings and size frequencies of fish from commercial, re~reational, and headboat fisheries from 1986-1998. Data were stratified into two geographical areas: North Carolina and South Carolina; and southeast Florida. Population size in numbers at age was estimated for each year and geographical area by applying an uncalibrated separable virtual population analysis (SVPA) to the landings in numbers at age. A calibrated virtual population analysis, FADAPT, was also run for data from North Carolina and South Carolina. SVPA and FADAPT were used to estimate annual, age-specific fishing mortality (F) for four levels of natural mortality (M = 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35). The best estimate of M for white grunt is 0.30. Landings of white grunt in the Carolinas for the three fisheries have generally decreased in recent years, but have held fairly steady for the species in southeast Florida. Age at entry and age at full recruitment were age-1 and age-4 for the Carolinas, and age-l and age-3 for southeast Florida. With M = 0.30, levels of fishing mortality (F) on the fully-recruited ages were 0.23 for the Carolinas and 0.33 for southeast Florida. Spawning potential ratio (SPR) at M = 0.30 was 57% for the Carolinas and 61% for southeast Florida, which indicates that the species, by definition, has not been over-exploited by fishing. The results of this assessment of the white grunt population off the Carolinas agree with the recent F/FMSY analysis of white grunt (Anonymous, 1999). (PDF contaons 72 pages)

Residential Docks and Piers: Inventory of laws, regulations, and policies for the Southeastern United States

While the homes threatened by erosion and the developer illegally filling in marshlands are the projects that make the headlines, for many state regulatory programs, it’s the residential docks and piers that take up the most time. When is a dock too long? What about crossing extended property lines? And at what point does a creek have too many docks? There are no easy answers to any of the dock and pier related questions. Each state has to craft the laws and policies that are best for its natural resources and its political and legal environment. At the same time, mistakes in judgment can be costly for the organization, the homeowner, and the natural resources. At the request of the Georgia Coastal Management Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Services Center compiled an inventory of dock information for four states—Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Federal laws, state laws and regulations, permitting policies, and contact information are included in a tabular format that is easy to use. (PDF contaions 18 pages)

Population assessment of the vermilion snapper, Rhomboplites aurorubens, from the Southeastern United States

Changes in the age structure and population size of vermilion snapper, Rhornboplites aurorubens, from North Carolina through the Florida Keys were examined using records of landings and size frequencies of fish from commercial, recreational, and headboat fisheries from 1986-1996. Population size in numbers at age was estimated for each year by applying separable virtual population analysis (SVPA) to the landings in numbers at age. SVPA was used to estimate annual, age-specific fishing mortality (F) for four levels of natural mortality (M = 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35). Although landings of vermilion snapper for the three fisheries have declined, minimum fish size regulations have resulted in an increase in the mean size of fish landed. Age at entry and age at full recruitment were age-1 andage-3 fDr 1986-1991, compared with age-1 and age-4, respectively, for 1992-1996. Levels of mortality from fishing (F) ranged from 0.38 - 0.61 for the entire period. Current spawning potential ratio (SPR) is 21% or 27% depending on the natural mortality estimate. SPR could be raised to 30% or 40% with a reduction in F, or by increasing the age at entry to the fisheries. The latter could be enhanced now if fishermen, particularly recreational, comply with minimum size regulations. However, released fish mortality, modeled in the assessment at 27%, will continue to make the achievement of 30% and 40% SPR more difficult. (PDF contains 63 pages)

A manual of previously recorded non-indigenous invasive and native transplanted animal species of the Laurentian Great Lakes and coastal United States

This manual presents geographic information by state of occurrence, and descriptions of the socio-economic impact created by the invasion of non-indigenous and native transplanted animal species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and the coastal waters of the United States. It is not a comprehensive literature review, but rather is intended as a primer for those unfamiliar with the socio-economic impacts of invasive aquatic and marine animals. Readers should also note that the information contained in this manual is current as of its publication date. New information and new species are routinely being added to the wider literature base. Most of the information was gathered from a number of web sites maintained by government agencies, commissions, academic institutions and museums. Additional information was taken from the primary and secondary literature. This manual focuses on socio-economic consequences of invasive species. Thus, ecological impacts, when noted in the literature, are not discussed unless a connection to socio-economic factors can be made. For a majority of the species listed, either the impact of their invasion is not understood, or it is not published in sources surveyed. In the species summaries, sources of information are cited except for information from the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) Nonindigenous Aquatic Species Database http://nas.er.usgs.gov. This website formed the base information used in creating tables on geographic distribution, and in many of the species summaries provided. Thus, whenever information is given without specific author/source and date citation, it has come from this comprehensive source. (PDF contains 90 pages)