35 resultados para Uncertainty and reasoning, Sets of probability measures, Bayesian networks, Multilinear programming.
em Aquatic Commons
Resumo:
Predicting and under-standing the dynamics of a population requires knowledge of vital rates such as survival, growth, and reproduction. However, these variables are influenced by individual behavior, and when managing exploited populations, it is now generally realized that knowledge of a species’ behavior and life history strategies is required. However, predicting and understanding a response to novel conditions—such as increased fishing-induced mortality, changes in environmental conditions, or specific management strategies—also require knowing the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce phenotypic changes and knowing whether these behaviors and life history patterns are plastic. Although a wide variety of patterns of sex change have been observed in the wild, it is not known how the specific sex-change rule and cues that induce sex change affect stock dynamics. Using an individual based model, we examined the effect of the sex-change rule on the predicted stock dynamics, the effect of mating group size, and the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit (SPR) measures in a protogynous stock. We considered four different patterns of sex change in which the probability of sex change is determined by 1) the absolute size of the individual, 2) the relative length of individuals at the mating site, 3) the frequency of smaller individuals at the mating site, and 4) expected reproductive success. All four pat-terns of sex change have distinct stock dynamics. Although each sex-change rule leads to the prediction that the stock will be sensitive to the size-selective fishing pattern and may crash if too many reproductive size classes are fished, the performance of traditional spawning-per-recruit measures, the fishing pattern that leads to the greatest yield, and the effect of mating group size all differ distinctly for the four sex-change rules. These results indicate that the management of individual species requires knowledge of whether sex change occurs, as well as an understanding of the endogenous or exogenous cues that induce sex change.
Resumo:
Otolith thermal marking is an efficient method for mass marking hatchery-reared salmon and can be used to estimate the proportion of hatchery fish captured in a mixed-stock fishery. Accuracy of the thermal pattern classification depends on the prominence of the pattern, the methods used to prepare and view the patterns, and the training and experience of the personnel who determine the presence or absence of a particular pattern. Estimating accuracy rates is problematic when no secondary marking is available and no error-free standards exist. Agreement measures, such as kappa (κ), provide a relative measure of the reliability of the determinations when independent readings by two readers are available, but the magnitude of κ can be influenced by the proportion of marked fish. If a third reader is used or if two or more groups of paired readings are examined, latent class models can provide estimates of the error rates of each reader. Applications of κ and latent class models are illustrated by a program providing contribution estimates of hatchery-reared chum and sockeye salmon in Southeast Alaska.
Resumo:
Intra-and interspecific virtual niche measures and feeding strategies of Barbodes gonionotus and Oreochromis spp. were studied from a rice field in Bangladesh. Appropriateness and ease of interpretation of different indices were evaluated. Small sizes of both species had a relatively wider dietary breadth and used many of the resource categories available to them than the large size groups, though none were generalist feeder. The dietary overlap of large B. gonionotus on the small was greater than the reverse, but biologically insignificant. While the dietary overlap of large Oreochromis spp. on the small was significantly greater. Interspecific dietary width was relatively broader for B. gonionotus than Oreochromis spp. and overlap of B. gonionotus on Oreochromis spp. was significantly greater than the reverse. Evidence of significant intraspecific dietary overlap between the two sizes of tilapia reflects strong competition and cautions for mixed-size stocking in rice-fish system. Besides, there seem fewer opportunities for habitat segregation between B. gonionotus and Oreochromis spp., due to the significant interspecific dietary overlap of the former on the latter in rice-fish system. Tilapia specialized on periphytic detrital aggregate while silver barb tended to consume aquatic macrophytes and molluscs. Small sizes of B. gonionotus should be preferred for rice-fish integration over the Oreochromis spp. due to their broader niche width and pronounced ontogenetic dietary shifts with the aging of the stock.
Resumo:
We analyzed the relationships between the larval and juvenile abundances of selected estuarine-dependent fishes that spawn during the winter in continental shelf waters of the U.S. Atlantic coast. Six species were included in the analysis based on their ecological and economic importance and relative abundance in available surveys: spot Leiostomus xanthurus, pinfish Lagodon rhomboides, southern flounder Paralichthys lethostigma, summer flounder Paralichthys dentatus, Atlantic croaker Micropogonias undulatus, and Atlantic menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus. Cross-correlation analysis was used to examine the relationships between the larval and juvenile abundances within species. Tests of synchrony across species were used to find similarities in recruitment dynamics for species with similar winter shelf-spawning life-history strategies. Positive correlations were found between the larval and juvenile abundances for three of the six selected species (spot, pinfish, and southern flounder). These three species have similar geographic ranges that primarily lie south of Cape Hatteras. There were no significant correlations between the larval and juvenile abundances for the other three species (summer flounder, Atlantic croaker, and Atlantic menhaden); we suggest several factors that could account for the lack of a relationship. Synchrony was found among the three southern species within both the larval and juvenile abundance time series. These results provide support for using larval ingress measures as indices of abundance for these and other species with similar geographic ranges and winter shelf-spawning life-history strategies.
Resumo:
Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, butyltins, polychlorinated biphenyls, DDT and metabolites, other chlorinated pesticides, trace and major elements, and a number of measures of contaminant effects are quantified in bivalves and sediments collected as part of the NOAA National Status and Trends (NS&T) Program. This document contains descriptions of some of the sampling and analytical protocols used by NS&T contract laboratories from 1993 through 1996. (PDF contains 257 pages)
Resumo:
This dissertation is an assessment of the status of odontocetes in Hawaiian waters focussing on O´ahu. The work builds on available literature, and on data collected by the author and by others in Hawaiian waters. Abundance and distribution patterns of odontocetes were derived from stranding and aerial survey data. A stranding network operated by the National Marine Fisheries Service, Pacific Area Office collected 187 stranding reports throughout the main Hawaiian Islands between 1937 and 2002. These reports included 16 odontocete species. Number of stranding reports increased over time and was highest on O´ahu. Strandings occurred throughout the year. The difference in number of strandings per month was not significant. Fifteen of the 16 species reported in the stranding record for the main Hawaiian Islands were also reported by aerial survey studies of the area between 1993 and 1998. Only 7 of the species reported were detected during aerial transects around O′ahu between 1998 and 2000. Based on the stranding record, Kogia sp., melon-headed whales, striped dolphins and dwarf killer whale appear to be more common than suggested by aerial surveys. Conversely, pilot whales and bottlenose dolphins were more common, according to aerial surveys, than predicted by the stranding data. Aerial surveys of waters between 0 and 500m around the Island of O′ahu showed that the most abundant species by frequency of occurrence was the pilot whale (30% of sightings), followed by the spinner (16%) and bottlenose dolphin (14%). Because of small sample size, abundance estimates for odontocetes have a high level of uncertainty. The unavailability of a correction factor for g(0)<1, and the reduced visibility below the aircraft further reduced accuracy and increased the inherent underestimation in the data. The most abundant species according to distance sampling estimates were spotted dolphins, pilot whales, false killer whales and spinner dolphins. A natural factor shaping the ecology of odontocete populations is predation pressure both by other odontocetes and, more frequently, by sharks. An account of predation by a tiger shark on a spotted dolphin near Penguin Banks is used as an example of the potential mechanisms of predation by sharks on odontocetes.
Distribution and relative abundance of pelagic nonsalmonid nekton Off Oregon and Washington, 1979-84
Resumo:
Fifteen fine-mesh (32-mm mesh) pelagic purse seine surveys were conducted between 1979 and 1984 off the Oregon and Washington coasts. Environmental conditions varied greatly among the years sampled, and even within years, due to variability in upwelling conditions and productivity and the effects of a strong El Nino from late 1982 to the middle of 1984. In the 843 sets made, a total of 115,891 specimens from 69 taxa was collected. Most individuals collected belonged to nine dominant taxa. Seasonal and interannual variations in the abundance and distribution patterns of these dominant taxa are presented in detail. A recurrent group analysis delineated four major groupings of nekton. (PDF file contains 91 pages.)
Resumo:
Recruitment and commercial catches of European eel have been in decline since the late 1970s. So far, the reasons are not well understood. A range of potential natural and anthropogenic reasons have been discussed, but the relative importance of the factors is unknown. As a consequence of the decline in recruitment an urgent need for protective management measures was concluded. The main approach is to restrict the fishery on eel, in particular with reference to the precautionary approach. However, in view of the lack of knowledge on the factors responsible for the recruitment decline and by considering that many yellow and silver eel stocks in freshwaters depend on restocking by the fishery, such simplified conclusions are critically discussed. A concept for the sustainable management of eel has to include 1) research on the factors determining the population dynamics, in particular during the oceanic stages, 2) a stronger consideration of socio-economic aspects, and 3) intensified research on artificial reproduction and rearing of eel.
Resumo:
“Why does overfishing persist in the face of regulation?” The author argues that over fishing,a fundamental cause of the crisis facing our oceans, is the result of the failure of our fishing management agencies (ultimately our politicians and communities) to embrace a small suite of powerful tools (more correctly strategic approaches) which have been developed to account for uncertainty. Broad success in managing fisheries to achieve sustainability goals will only come if these tools are enthusiastically applied. This will not happen until organisational cultures within fishery management agencies undergo a major shift leading to an asset-based biodiversity conservation, rather than resource exploitation, to be placed at the centre of ocean governance.This thesis examines these issues in the context of case studies covering regional, national and provincial (State) fishery management agencies. With the exception of the case study of a regional fishery (the southern ocean krill fishery) all case studies are drawn from Australian experiences. The central recommendation of the thesis is that fishery management agencies, worldwide, should be replaced by biodiversity asset management agencies.
Resumo:
Over the years, Nigeria have witnessed different government with different policy measures. Against the negative consequences of the past policies, the structural adjustment was initiated in 1986. Its aims is to effectively altar and restructure the consumption patterns of the economy as well as to eliminate price distortions and heavy dependence on the oil and the imports of consumer goods and services. Within the period of implementation, there has been a decreasing trend in yearly fish catch landings and sizes but the reverse in shrimping. There is also a gradual shift from fishing to shrimping, from the vessels purchased with 83.3% increase of shrimpers from 1985 to 1989. Decreasing fish catch sizes and quantity aggravated by the present high cost of fishing coupled with the favourable export market for Nigeria shrimp tend to influence the sift. This economic situation is the result of the supply measures of SAP through the devaluation of the Naira. There is also overconcentration of vessels on the inshore waters as majority of the vessels are old and low powers hence incapable of fishing on the deep sea. Rotterdam price being paid for automotive gas oil (AGO) by fishing industries is observed to be discriminating and unhealthy to the growth of the industry as it is exceedingly high and unstable thus affecting planning for fishing operation. Fuel alone takes 43% of the total cost of operation. The overall consequences is that fishing days are loss and therefore higher overhead cost. It was concluded that for a healthy growth and sustainable resources of our marine fishery under the structural adjustment programme licensing of new fishing vessels should be stopped immediately and the demand side of SAP should be employed by subsidizing high powered fishing vessels which can operate effectively on the deep sea
Resumo:
Management of natural resources all over the world is of paramount importance to their sustainability in developing countries like Nigeria, there is less emphasis on proper management especially of fishery and other aquatic resources due to lack of sensitization and enlightenment of the rural dwellers who are closer to such natural resources. The main thrust of this review is to examine the management plans for Nigerian freshwater bodies (rivers and lakes) and the impact of such plans on the artisanal fisheries development in Nigeria. From the on-shelf information gathered there is scarcity of information on the management of Nigerian freshwater body's information available indicates that there is the traditional fisheries management and the government legal approach in form of fisheries Laws and Regulations. However, these management techniques are poorly carried out since there is a poor follow-up. Appreciable impact of fisheries management introduced on Kanji Lake by the Nigerian-German Kanji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project (NGKLFPP) between 1993 and 2001 proves worthwhile as this introduced some management measures such as implementation of fisheries Laws and Regulations, the ban of obnoxious fishing methods, introduction of fishing license, constitution of a management unit and appointment of liaison fishermen. Within the operative years of the project a lot of success was achieved and it is recommended that the approach in Kainji should be replicated in other freshwater bodies in Nigeria to alleviate poverty in the rural poor fishing communities
Resumo:
Scholars recently derived simple models from published data for the prediction from water temperature of hatching times for the eggs of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) and Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.). A similar model to predict eyeing time for salmon eggs was obtained and used in this study, largely by analogy, to develop equations which might be used to obtain very approximate estimates of eyeing and swim-up times for salmon and brown trout. As the models were based on data for constant temperatures and some of them also had a very inadequate data base, it was desirable that they should be tested, as far as possible, against field and hatchery observations. The present report is a brief summary based on such data as have been obtained to date. None of the data sets were ideal for the purpose and the various inadequacies are discussed later in this report.
Resumo:
Based on the well known sea ice phase diagram, equations are derived for determining the brine and gas content of sea Ice for high temperatures (range 0 to -2 °C) and low salinities. The presently widely used equations of Cox and Weeks (1982) are valid only for temperatures below -2°C. Fresh-water ice is used as a boundary condition for the equations. The relative salt concentrations in brine are_assumed to be the same as in normal (or standard) seawater. Two sets of equations are presented: 1) accurate formulae based on UNESCO standard sea water equations, and 2) approximate formulae based on general properties of weak solutions. The approximate formulae are not essentially different from the classical system which basically assumes the freezing point to be a linear function of fractional salt content. The agreement between the two approaches is excellent and the approximate system is good enough for most applications.
Resumo:
Determining patterns of population connectivity is critical to the evaluation of marine reserves as recruitment sources for harvested populations. Mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis) is a good test case because the last known major spawning aggregation in U.S. waters was granted no-take status in the Tortugas South Ecological Reserve (TSER) in 2001. To evaluate the TSER population as a recruitment source, we genotyped mutton snapper from the Dry Tortugas, southeast Florida, and from three locations across the Caribbean at eight microsatellite loci. Both Fstatistics and individual-based Bayesian analyses indicated that genetic substructure was absent across the five populations. Genetic homogeneity of mutton snapper populations is consistent with its pelagic larval duration of 27 to 37 days and adult behavior of annual migrations to large spawning aggregations. Statistical power of future genetic assessments of mutton snapper population connectivity may benefit from more comprehensive geographic sampling, and perhaps from the development of less polymorphic DNA microsatellite loci. Research where alternative methods are used, such as the transgenerational marking of embryonic otoliths with barium stable isotopes, is also needed on this and other species with diverse life history characteristics to further evaluate the TSER as a recruitment source and to define corridors of population connectivity across the Caribbean and Florida.
Resumo:
Cape Cod Bay (Massachusetts) is the only known winter and early spring feeding area for concentrations of the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) population. During January–May, 1998–2002, 167 aerial surveys were conducted (66,466 km of total survey effort), providing a complete representation of the spatiotemporal distribution of right whales in the bay during winter and spring. A total of 1553 right whales were sighted; some of these sightings were multiple sightings of the same individuals. Right whale distribution and relative abundance patterns were quantified as sightings per unit of effort (SPUE) and partitioned into 103 23-km2 cells and 12 2-week periods. Significant interannual variations in mean SPUE and timing of SPUE maxima were likely due to physically forced changes in available food resources. The area of greatest SPUE expanded and contracted during the season but its center remained in the eastern bay. Most cells with SPUE>0 were inside the federal critical habitat (CH) and this finding gave evidence of the need for management measures within CH boundaries to reduce anthropogenic mortality from vessel strikes and entanglement. There was significant within-season SPUE variability: low in December−January, increasing to a maximum in late February−early April, and declining to zero in May; and these results provide support for management measures from 1 January