Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

Food habits and dietary variability of pelagic nekton off Oregon and Washington, 1979-1984

The food habits of 20 species of pelagic nekton were investigated from collections made with small-mesh purse seines from 1979-84 off Washington and Oregon. Four species (spiny dogfish, Squalus acanthias; soupfin shark, Galeorhinus zyopterus; blue shark, Prionace glauca; and cutthroat trout, Salmo clarki) were mainly piscivorous. Six species (coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kisutch; chinook salmon, O. tshawytscha; black rockfish, Sebastes melanops; yellowtail rockfish, S. f1avidus; sablefish, Anoplopoma fimbria; and jack mackerel, Trachurus symmetricus) consumed both nektonic and planktonic organisms. The remaining species (market squid, Loligo opalescens; American shad, Alosa sapidissima; Pacific herring, Clupea harengus pallasi; northern anchovy, Engraulis mordax; pink salmon, O. gorbuscha; surf smelt, Hypomesus pretiosus; Pacific hake, Merluccius productus; Pacific saury, Cololabis saira; Pacific mackerel, Scomber japonicus; and medusafish, Icichthys lockingtom) were primarily planktonic feeders. There were substantial interannual, seasonal, and geographic variations in the diets of several species due primarily to changes in prey availability. Juvenile salmonids were not commonly consumed by this assemblage of fishes (PDF file contains 36 pages.)

Deutscher Beitrag zum internationalen Makrelen(Scomber scombrus) und Stöcker- (Trachurus trachurus) Eier-Survey

Based on the results from egg and larvae surveys, mackerel and horse mackerel are thought to form three more or less distinct stocks each in the North Sea and in the waters west of the British Isles. These are firstly the southern stocks in the southern part of the English Channel, Celtic Sea and Bay of Biscay, secondly the North Sea and finally the western stocks of both species, loeated between the Shetlands and southern Norway. It is argued here that in view of the high mobility and the extended seasonal migrations of both species a c1ear separation of the stocks can hardly be maintained. In this context the results of the 1995 mackerel and horse mackerel egg survey to the southern spawning location is presented.

Contribución al conocimiento de la biología del surel (Trachurus picturatus australis) del área de Mar del Plata (Pisces, Carangidae)

The individuals studied came from commercial catches on the coastal area off Mar del Plata. The monthly distribution of sizes shows that the juvenile stay in coastal waters, while the adult individuals leave those waters during winter season to return there in the spring during the season of sexual maturation and spawning, when the water reaches temperature of 10-11°C. The jack mackerel is a relatively small fish, compared with other species of its genus, and has a total length of scarcely 25 cm. The comparison of indexes and mesurements does not reveal any marked difference between sexes, except for the total length, which is greater in the females. Sexually nature individuals at a lenth of 13 cm have been found. Spawning takes place in coastal waters. A great part of the population spawns from December to January. There are oscillations ranging from November to March. On this latter month mature individuals of smaller size have veen found. The jack mackerel feeds usually on copepods and other planktonic organims, but it can feed also on juveniles of other fishes. This fish is caught throghout the whole year. The catches show their greater peak during winter; one other non-constant peak occurs during the spring (October-November) and declines shoraply during the summer months. It follows from this that the time of greates catch does not coincide with spawning season, or with the appearence of the greatest mean sizes. This happens because the interests of the fishermen are attracted during those months by others species of greater commercial value.

Effect of environmental conditions on the distribution of Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) larvae in the California Current system

We modeled the probability of capturing Pacif ic mackerel (Scomber japonicus) larvae as a function of environmental variables for the Southern California Bight (SCB) most years from 1951 through 2008 and Mexican waters offshore of Baja California from 1951 through 1984. The model exhibited acceptable fit, as indicated by the area under a receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.80 but was inconsistent with the zero catches that occurred frequently in the 2000s. Two types of spawners overlapped spatially within the survey area: those that exhibited peak spawning during April in the SCB at about 15.5°C and a smaller group that exhibited peak spawning in August near Punta Eugenia, Mexico, at 20°C or greater. The SCB generally had greater zooplankton than Mexican waters but less appropriate (lower) geostrophic f lows. Mexican waters generally exhibited greater predicted habitat quality than the SCB in cold years. Predicted quality of the habitat in the SCB was greater from the 1980s to 2008 than in the earlier years of the survey primarily because temperatures and geostrophic flows were more appropriate for larvae. However, stock size the previous year had a larger effect on predictions than any environmental variable, indicating that larval Pacific mackerel did not fully occupy the suitable habitat during most years.

Distributions and abundances of Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax) and other pelagic fishes in the California Current Ecosystem during spring 2006, 2008, and 2010, estimated from acoustic–trawl surveys

The abundances and distributions of coastal pelagic fish species in the California Current Ecosystem from San Diego to southern Vancouver Island, were estimated from combined acoustic and trawl surveys conducted in the spring of 2006, 2008, and 2010. Pacific sardine (Sardinops sagax), jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus), and Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) were the dominant coastal pelagic fish species, in that order. Northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax) and Pacific herring (Clupea pallasii) were sampled only sporadically and therefore estimates for these species were unreliable. The estimates of sardine biomass compared well with those of the annual assessments and confirmed a declining trajectory of the “northern stock” since 2006. During the sampling period, the biomass of jack mackerel was stable or increasing, and that of Pacific mackerel was low and variable. The uncertainties in these estimates are mostly the result of spatial patchiness which increased from sardine to mackerels to anchovy and herring. Future surveys of coastal pelagic fish species in the California Current Ecosystem should benefit from adaptive sampling based on modeled habitat; increased echosounder and trawl sampling, particularly for the most patchy and nearshore species; and directed-trawl sampling for improved species identification and estimations of their acoustic target stren

Comparative growth performance of jack mackerels of the genus Trachurus with emphasis on T. symmetricus murphyi in Chile

This contribution presents von Bertalanffy growth parameter estimates for species/stocks of jack mackerels of the genus Trachurus from around the world, and compares them with growth parameters for T. symmetricus murphyi caught off central-Chile (33 super(o)S-39 super(o)S). It is found that Trachurus stocks inhabiting upwelling areas such as the Humboldt and Benguela current systems grow better than their ecological equivalents in temperate waters, such as the North Sea. The von Bertalanffy growth paramters estimated from Chilean horse mackerel are: FL = 65.2 cm (TL = 71.6 cm) and K = 0.138 year super(-1).

Length-based estimates of vital statistics in threadfin bream (Nemipterus japonicus) from Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh

ELEFAN 0, ELEFAN I and ELEFAN II were used to estimate vital statistics of Nemipterus japonicus from length-frequency data sampled along the coast of Bangladesh. The parameters L and K were estimated at 24.5 cm and 0.94 year super(-1). The values of M and F were found to be 1.81 and 1.58 year super(-1), respectively. The fish recruit to the fishery during May-June and September-October.

Growth and length-weight parameters of Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the Gulf of Guayaquil, Ecuador

The seasonally oscillating growth parameters and length-weight relationships for Scomber japonicus caught in the Gulf of Guayaquil, Ecuador, were determined based on length-frequency data from 1989 to 1996, using the FiSAT software package of Gayanilo et al. (1996). Estimates of growth parameters are in general agreement with previous studies on the same species. Results also imply that the growth of Scomber japonicus slows down during the cold season by approximately 50% with respect to the average growth. The mean value of the power b is significantly larger than 3, indicating that the model of allometric growth should be used for the length-weight relationship and calculation of the condition factor.

Spatial and temporal variation in the diet of the California sea lion (Zalophus californianus) in the Gulf of California, Mexico

Between June 1995 and May 1996 seven rookeries in the Gulf of California were visited four times in order to collect scat samples for studying spatial and seasonal variability California sea lion prey. The rookeries studied were San Pedro Mártir, San Esteban, El Rasito, Los Machos, Los Cantiles, Isla Granito, and Isla Lobos. The 1273 scat samples collected yielded 4995 otoliths (95.3%) and 247 (4.7%) cephalopod beaks. Fish were found in 97.4% of scat samples collected, cephalopods in 11.2%, and crustaceans in 12.7%. We identified 92 prey taxa to the species level, 11 to genus level, and 10 to family level, of which the most important were Pacific cutlassfish (Trichiurus lepturus), Pacific sardine (Sardinops caeruleus), plainfin midshipman (Porichthys spp.), myctophid no. 1, northern anchovy (Engraulis mordax), Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus), anchoveta (Cetengraulis mysticetus), and jack mackerel (Trachurus symmetricus). Significant differences were found among rookeries in the occurrence of all main prey (P≤0.04), except for myctophid no. 1 (P>0.05). Temporally, significant differences were found in the occurrence of Pacific cutlassfish, Pacific sardine, plainfin midshipman, northern anchovy, and Pacific mackerel (P<0.05), but not in jack mackerel (χ 2=2.94, df=3, P=0.40), myctophid no. 1 (χ 2=1.67, df= 3, P=0.64), or lanternfishes (χ 2=2.08, df=3, P=0.56). Differences were observed in the diet and in trophic diversity among seasons and rookeries. More evident was the variation in diet in relation to availability of Pacific sardine.

Effects of density-dependence and sea surface temperature on interannual variation in length-at-age of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) in the Kuroshio-Oyashio area during 1970–1997

Annual mean fork length (FL) of the Pacific stock of chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) was examined for the period of 1970–97. Fork length at age 0 (6 months old) was negatively correlated with year-class strength which fluctuated between 0.2 and 14 billion in number for age-0 fish. Total stock biomass was correlated with FL at age but was not a significant factor. Sea surface temperature (SST) between 38–40°N and 141–143°E during April–June was also negatively correlated with FL at age 0. A modified von Bertalanffy growth model that incorporated the effects of population density and SST on growth was well fitted to the observed FL at ages. The relative FL at age 0 for any given year class was maintained throughout the life span. The variability in size at age in the Pacific stock of chub mackerel is largely attributable to growth during the first six months after hatching.

Condition factor and length-weight relationship of Nemipterus japonicus (Bloch) off Bombay coast

Fluctuations in the K values of Nemipterus japonicus (Bloch) off Bombay coast were interpreted regarding sex, month and females maturity stage. These indicate differential growth rates in males and females. Males and females attain first maturity at 145 mm and 115 mm respectively, second maturity is attained by both the sexes at 195 mm. First spawning occurs when both are of 155 mm length and at second spawning males and females attain 215 and 205 mm of length respectively. The fish mature and breed at "O" year; the main spawning period is from August to November with peak spawning activities in October. It grows about 155 mm in first year at 12.91mm per month and about 215 mm in the second year at 5.0 mm per month on an average. Length-weight relationships for males and females are given. The rate of growth of females by weight was found to be slower below 150 mm, but faster than that of males above 150 mm specimens.

Studies on maturity, spawning and fecundity of Nemipterus japonicus (Bloch) off Bombay coast

Studies indicated spawning season of Nemipterus japonicus off Bombay coast (Maharashtra, India), to be during July to December with peak breeding during November to December. Females attained first maturity at the length range 110-120 mm; 50% maturity and spawning occurred at 135 mm within one year of its age. Overall male: female ratio for the entire period of study was 1:1.01. Relationships of fecundity with total length of fish, total ovary weight and per g. fish weight were worked out as F=(-72674.33) L super(739.73); F =65.44 W super(807.33); F=3112.57 W super(22383.27) and F=467.85 W super(4.96) with coefficient of correlation values (r) 0.9090, 0.9443, 0.9911 and 0.8843 respectively.

A study on food and feeding habits of Nemipterus japonicus (Bloch) off Bombay coast

The gut content of Nemipterus japonicus revealed that this fish is a carnivorous bottom feeder, feeding mainly on crustaceans, fishes, salps and polychaetes, with marginal variations in females. The intensity of feeding increased with the advancement of maturity till stage 5 except in stage 3 where the intensity of feeding indicated a decrease.

Utilization of trash fish for human consumption. 3: Studies on the development of fish pickle from Nemipterus japonicus

A method for the preparation of fish pickles from a lean variety of fish namely pink perch (Nemipterus japonicus) is described. Dipping the fish in 10% sodium chloride solution containing 6% acetic acid before pickling, was found desirable for retaining the meaty texture of the product. The product has no fish smell or flavour and has a shelf life of more than six months at ambient temperatures and scored very well in organoleptic tests.