Drought frequency analysis for California from observed, synthetic, and proxy data

Drought frequency analysis can be performed with statistical techniques developed for determining recurrence intervals for extreme precipitation and flood events (Linsley et al 1992). The drought analysis method discussed in this paper uses the log-Pearson Type III distribution, which has been widely used in flood frequency research. Some of the difficulties encountered when using this distribution for drought analysis are investigated.

Climatic effects on flood frequency: an example from southern Arizona

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): After 1960, the Santa Cruz River at Tucson, Arizona, an ephemeral stream normally dominated by summer floods, experienced an apparent increased frequency of flooding coincident with an increased percentage of annual floods occurring in fall and winter. This shift reflects large-scale and low-frequency changes in the eastern Pacific Ocean, in part associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena. ... Questions are raised about the validity of standard methods of flood-frequency analysis to estimate regulatory and designed floods.

Proceedings of the 1998 Science Board Symposium on The Impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño Event on the North Pacific Ocean and Its Marginal Seas

Preface [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James J. O'Brien The big picture - The ENSO of 1997-98 [pdf, 0.01 Mb] James E. Overland, Nicholas A. Bond & Jennifer Miletta Adams Atmospheric anomalies in 1997: Links to ENSO? [pdf, 0.54 Mb] Vladimir I. Ponomarev, Olga Trusenkova, Serge Trousenkov, Dmitry Kaplunenko, Elena Ustinova & Antonina Polyakova The ENSO signal in the northwest Pacific [pdf, 0.47 Mb] Robert L. Smith, A. Huyer, P.M. Kosro & J.A. Barth Observations of El Niño off Oregon: July 1997 to present (October 1998) [pdf, 1.31 Mb] Patrica A. Wheeler & Jon Hill Biological effects of the 1997-1998 El Niño event off Oregon: Nutrient and chlorophyll distributions [pdf, 1.13 Mb] William T. Peterson Hydrography and zooplankton off the central Oregon coast during the 1997-1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.26 Mb] William Crawford, Josef Cherniawsky, Michael Foreman & Peter Chandler El Niño sea level signal along the west coast of Canada [pdf, 1.25 Mb] Howard J. Freeland & Rick Thomson The El Niño signal along the west coast of Canada - temperature, salinity and velocity [pdf, 0.49 Mb] Frank A. Whitney, David L. Mackas, David W. Welch & Marie Robert Impact of the 1990s El Niños on nutrient supply and productivity of Gulf of Alaska waters [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Craig McNeil, David Farmer & Mark Trevorrow Dissolved gas measurements at Stn. P4 during the 97-98 El Niño [pdf, 0.13 Mb] Kristen L.D. Milligan, Colin D. Levings & Robert E. DeWreede Data compilation and preliminary time series analysis of abundance of a dominant intertidal kelp species in relation to the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.05 Mb] S.M. McKinnell, C.C. Wood, M. Lapointe, J.C. Woodey, K.E. Kostow, J. Nelson & K.D. Hyatt Reviewing the evidence that adult sockeye salmon strayed from the Fraser River and spawned in other rivers in 1997 [pdf,0.03 Mb] G.A. McFarlane & R.J. Beamish Sardines return to British Columbia waters [pdf, 0.34 Mb] Ken H. Morgan Impact of the 1997/98 El Niño on seabirds of the northeast Pacific [pdf, 0.06 Mb] Thomas C. Royer & Thomas Weingartner Coastal hydrographic responses in the northern Gulf of Alaska to the 1997-98 ENSO event [pdf, 0.76 Mb] John F. Piatt, Gary Drew, Thomas Van Pelt, Alisa Abookire, April Nielsen, Mike Shultz & Alexander Kitaysky Biological effects of the 1997/98 ENSO in Cook Inlet, Alaska [pdf, 0.22 Mb] H.J. Niebauer The 1997-98 El Niño in the Bering Sea as compared with previous ENSO events and the "regime shift" of the late 1970s [pdf, 0.10 Mb] A.S. Krovnin, G.P. Nanyushin, M.Yu. Kruzhalov, G.V. Khen, M.A. Bogdanov, E.I. Ustinova, V.V. Maslennikov, A.M. Orlov, B.N. Kotenev, V.V. Bulanov & G.P. Muriy The state of the Far East seas during the 1997/98 El Niño event [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Stacy Smith & Susan Henrichs Phytoplankton collected by a time-series sediment trap deployed in the southeast Bering Sea during 1997 [pdf, 0.21 Mb] Cynthia T. Tynan Redistributions of cetaceans in the southeast Bering Sea relative to anomalous oceanographic conditions during the 1997 El Niño [pdf, 0.02 Mb] Akihiko Yatsu, Junta Mori, Hiroyuki Tanaka, Tomowo Watanabe, Kazuya Nagasawa, Yikimasa Ishida, Toshimi Meguro, Yoshihiko Kamei & Yasunori Sakurai Stock abundance and size compositions of the neon flying squid in the central North Pacific Ocean during 1979-1998 [pdf, 0.11 Mb] O.B. Feschenko A new point of view concerning the El Niño mechanism [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Nathan Mantua 97/98 Ocean climate variability in the northeast Pacific: How much blame does El Niño deserve? [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Vadim P. Pavlychev Sharp changes of hydrometeorological conditions in the northwestern Pacific during the 1997/1998 El Niño event [pdf, 0.01 Mb] Jingyi Wang Predictability and forecast verification of El Niño events [pdf, 0.01 Mb] (Document contains 110 pages)

Proceedings of the International Workshop on age determination of oceanic pelagic fishes: Tunas, billfishes, and sharks, Miami, Florida, February 15-18,1982

Accurate and precise estimates of age and growth rates are essential parameters in understanding the population dynamics of fishes. Some of the more sophisticated stock assessment models, such as virtual population analysis, require age and growth information to partition catch data by age. Stock assessment efforts by regulatory agencies are usually directed at specific fisheries which are being heavily exploited and are suspected of being overfished. Interest in stock assessment of some of the oceanic pelagic fishes (tunas, billfishes, and sharks) has developed only over the last decade, during which exploitation has increased steadily in response to increases in worldwide demand for these resources. Traditionally, estimating the age of fishes has been done by enumerating growth bands on skeletal hardparts, through length frequency analysis, tag and recapture studies, and raising fish in enclosures. However, problems related to determining the age of some of the oceanic pelagic fishes are unique compared with other species. For example, sampling is difficult for these large, highly mobile fishes because of their size, extensive distributions throughout the world's oceans, and for some, such as the marlins, infrequent catches. In addition, movements of oceanic pelagic fishes often transect temperate as well as tropical oceans, making interpretation of growth bands on skeletal hardparts more difficult than with more sedentary temperate species. Many oceanic pelagics are also long-lived, attaining ages in excess of 30 yr, and more often than not, their life cycles do not lend themselves easily to artificial propagation and culture. These factors contribute to the difficulty of determining ages and are generally characteristic of this group-the tunas, billfishes, and sharks. Accordingly, the rapidly growing international concern in managing oceanic pelagic fishes, as well as unique difficulties in ageing these species, prompted us to hold this workshop. Our two major objectives for this workshop are to: I) Encourage the interchange of ideas on this subject, and 2) establish the "state of the art." A total of 65 scientists from 10 states in the continental United States and Hawaii, three provinces in Canada, France, Republic of Senegal, Spain, Mexico, Ivory Coast, and New South Wales (Australia) attended the workshop held at the Southeast Fisheries Center, Miami, Fla., 15-18 February 1982. Our first objective, encouraging the interchange of ideas, is well illustrated in the summaries of the Round Table Discussions and in the Glossary, which defines terms used in this volume. The majority of the workshop participants agreed that the lack of validation of age estimates and the means to accomplish the same are serious problems preventing advancements in assessing the age and growth of fishes, particularly oceanic pelagics. The alternatives relating to the validation problem were exhaustively reviewed during the Round Table Discussions and are a major highlight of this workshop. How well we accomplished our second objective, to establish the "state of the art" on age determination of oceanic pelagic fishes, will probably best be judged on the basis of these proceedings and whether future research efforts are directed at the problem areas we have identified. In order to produce high-quality papers, workshop participants served as referees for the manuscripts published in this volume. Several papers given orally at the workshop, and included in these proceedings, were summarized from full-length manuscripts, which have been submitted to or published in other scientific outlets-these papers are designated as SUMMARY PAPERS. In addition, the SUMMARY PAPER designation was also assigned to workshop papers that represented very preliminary or initial stages of research, cursory progress reports, papers that were data shy, or provide only brief reviews on general topics. Bilingual abstracts were included for all papers that required translation. We gratefully acknowledge the support of everyone involved in this workshop. Funding was provided by the Southeast Fisheries Center, and Jack C. Javech did the scientific illustrations appearing on the cover, between major sections, and in the Glossary. (PDF file contains 228 pages.)

Distribution of skipjack in the Pacific Ocean, based on records of incidental catches of the Japanese longline tuna fishery

ENGLISH: All available longline data on skipjack captured in the Pacific Ocean by Japanese research vessels (1949-1965) and from incidental skipjack catches by Japanese commercial vessels (1956-1964) were analyzed. As skipjack are not specifically sought by longline vessels, the data are limited. Considering this it was found that: longline gear captures skipjack of wider size-range and is more selective for larger skipjack than conventional fishing methods, i.e. pole-and-line and purse-seine; skipjack are widely and almost continuously distributed across the Pacific; throughout the year average hook-rates are greater in the southeastern Pacific than in the northwestern Pacific; areas of high hook-rate shift south during the second and third quarters and north during the first and fourth quarters; in the western Pacific the north-south range of the catch distribution was greatest in the first and fourth quarters; skipjack hook-rates are relatively high in the northwestern Pacific east of Japan only during the first and fourth quarters; the highest hook-rates were recorded in extensive areas along the equator (from lO°N to 20°8 between approximately 155°W-100°W); generally more skipjack were captured by research longline gear in water temperature ranges approaching both the upper and lower temperature limits of skipjack distribution (18-21C and 26-28C), than is the case in surface skipjack fisheries; tentative comparisons of longline skipjack catch distributions with Pacific current systems, suggests low skipjack abundance in both North Pacific Central and North Pacific Equatorial water; the sex ratio was 95 males : 63 females in a small sample of skipjack examined; longlines capture skipjack of three, and possibly more, age groups; in skipjack size-composition samples studied, the smaller modal group (65 cm) observed in January-March in the northwestern Pacific (1600E-180oE and 20oN-45°N) corresponds in size to the larger modal group appearing in the late-summer surface fishery off the Izu-Bonin Islands southeast of Japan, and also compares in modal size to the skipjack taken in the Hawaiian fishery in spring time; the analysis of skipjack catches by hook position on the longline and by death-rate studies, indicates that part of the catch is made while the gear is in motion near the surface, and a lesser part of the catch is made when the gear is stabilized at a depth of 70 to 140 m. A brief discussion is given, in the light of new information presented, on several hypotheses by other authors concerning the population structure and migration of skipjack in the Pacific Ocean. SPANISH: Se analizaron todos los datos disponibles de la pesca con palangre de barriletes capturados en el Océano Pacífico por barcos japoneses de investigación (1949-1965) y por las capturas incidentales de los barcos comerciales japoneses (1956-1964). Como los barcos palangreros específicamente, no persiguen al barrilete, los datos son limitados. Considerando ésto, se encontró: que el arte palangrero obtiene barriletes con una distribución más amplia de tallas, y es más selectivo en cuanto a los barriletes de mayor talla, que los métodos convencionales de pesca, Le. cañas de pescar y redes de cerco; el barrilete se encuentra amplia y casi continuamente distribuido a través del Pacífico; en todo el año, las tasas promedio de captura por anzuelo son superiores en el Pacífico sudoriental que las del Pacífico noroeste; las áreas con una tasa alta de captura por anzuelo, se cambian hacia el sur durante los trimestres segundo y tercero, y durante los trimestres primero y cuarto hacia el norte; en el Pacífico occidental la amplitud de la distribución de captura norte-sur, fue superior en los trimestres primero y cuarto; las tasas de captura por anzuelo de barrilete, son relativamente altas en el Pacífico noroeste al este del Japón, únicamente durante los trimestres primero y cuarto; las tasas de captura por anzuelo más altas fueron registradas en extensas áreas a lo largo del ecuador (desde los 10°N hasta los 20°S, aproximadamente entre los 155°W-100°W) ; generalmente las artes palangreras de investigación capturaron más barrilete en aguas en las que la temperatura se aproximaba a los límites más altos o bajos de la temperatura en la distribución del barrilete (18-21 C y 26-28 C), que en el caso de la pesca superficial de barrilete; las comparaciones tentativas de la captura de barrilete con palangre, con el sistema de las corrientes del Pacífico, sugieren una abundancia inferior de barrilete tanto en las aguas del Pacífico central del norte como en las del Pacífico ecuatorial del norte; la proporcíon sexual examinada en una pequeña muestra de barriletes, fue de 95 machos y 63 hembras; los palangreros capturan barriletes de tres grupos de edad y posiblemente de más; en las muestras estudiadas de la composición de las tallas de barrilete, el grupo modal más pequeño (65 cm), observado en enero-marzo en el Pacífico noroeste (160 0E-180° y 20 oN-45°N), corresponde en talla al grupo modal más grande que aparece en la pesca de superficie a fines del verano frente a las Islas Izu-Bonín al sudeste del Japón, y se compara también con la talla modal del barrilete obtenido en la pesca hawaiana en la época de primavera; el análisis de las capturas de barrilete por medio del estudio de la posición de los anzuelos en el palangre y por la tasa de mortalidad, indica que parte de la captura se efectúa cuando el equipo está en movimiento cerca a la superficie y una parte inferior de la captura se realiza, cuando las artes se estabilizan a una profundidad de 70 a 140 m. Se ofrece una breve discusión sobre varias hipótesis de otros autores, en vista de la nueva información presentada referente a la estructura poblacional y a la migración del barrilete en el Océano Pacífico. (PDF contains 100 pages.)

Population parameters of Penaeus californiensis in the Gulf of Guayaquil, Ecuador

The growth, mortality, and recruitment pattern of Penaeus californiensis were investigated using tail length (TL)-frequency data obtained from the Gulf of Guayaquil shrimp population. Computer-based methods of tail-frequency analysis Compleat ELEFAN software were used. Results obtained gave relatively high growth and mortality estimates for both males and females. The recruitment pattern indicated two pulses annually, one significantly larger than the other.

Growth and mortality of dagaa (Rastrineobola argentea, Fam. Cyprinidae) in Lake Victoria

Growth and mortality parameters of the small Lake Victoria cyprinid Rastrineobola argentea were determined from length-frequency analysis, using the ELEFAN I and II programs. The results of two sampling programs, both performed during 1988, one in Uganda (mosquito seine) and the other in Tanzania (pelagic trawl), were highly corresponding, In comparison with previously published data on the growth of dagaa and some similar species, low values for L sub( infinity ) (65 mm standard length) and K (1 year super(-1)) were found. Total mortality (Z) amounted to 3.9-4.4 year super(-1). A single annual breeding peak was observed both in Uganda (October/November) and in Tanzania (February/March).

River Dart Salmon Project. Summary of Phase I report.

This is the River Dart Salmon Project Summary of Phase I Report (2002) by the Westcountry Rivers Trust. The report contains sections on the introduction to Dart Salmon, factors affecting salmon numbers, salmon rod catch and salmon electro-fishing data, and a summary and discussion of the next phase. It also contains two tables with time series analysis on fry/parr numbers in representative section of the River Dart and figures with trends in fry/parrs numbers at juveniles electro-fishing sites. The section on salmon rod catch data includes trend analysis, cross-correlation of catches in different rivers and a general conclusion.

Age determination and growth of the night shark (Carcharhinus signatus) off the northeastern Brazilian coast

Age and growth of the night shark (Carcharhinus signatus) from areas off northeastern Brazil were determined from 317 unstained vertebral sections of 182 males (113–215 cm total length [TL]), 132 females (111.5–234.9 cm) and three individuals of unknown sex (169–242 cm). Although marginal increment (MI) analysis suggests that band formation occurs in the third and fourth trimesters in juveniles, it was inconclusive for adults. Thus, it was assumed that one band is formed annually. Births that occur over a protracted period may be the most important source of bias in MI analysis. An estimated average percent error of 2.4% was found in readings for individuals between two and seventeen years. The von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) showed no significant differences between sexes, and the model derived from back-calculated mean length at age best represented growth for the species (L∞=270 cm, K=0.11/yr, t0=–2.71 yr) when compared to the observed mean lengths at age and the Fabens’ method. Length-frequency analysis on 1055 specimens (93–260 cm) was used to verify age determination. Back-calculated size at birth was 66.8 cm and maturity was reached at 180–190 cm (age 8) for males and 200–205 cm (age ten) for females. Age composition, estimated from an age-length key, indicated that juveniles predominate in commercial catches, representing 74.3% of the catch. A growth rate of 25.4 cm/yr was estimated from birth to the first band (i.e. juveniles grow 38% of their birth length during the first year), and a growth rate of 8.55 cm/yr was estimated for eight- to ten-year-old adults.

Determining the role of linear and nonlinear interactions in records of climate change: possible solar influences in annual to century-scale records

Time series analysis methods have traditionally helped in identifying the role of various forcing mechanisms in influencing climate change. A challenge to understanding decadal and century-scale climate change has been that the linkages between climate changes and potential forcing mechanisms such as solar variability are often uncertain. However, most studies have focused on the role of climate forcing and climate response within a strictly linear framework. Nonlinear time series analysis procedures provide the opportunity to analyze the role of climate forcing and climate responses between different time scales of climate change. An example is provided by the possible nonlinear response of paleo-ENSO-scale climate changes as identified from coral records to forcing by the solar cycle at longer time scales.

Addendum I: Paleoclimate and the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model

Recent papers provide detailed analyses of more than 40 high-resolution time series culled from the extensive paleoclimate literature that appear to define cyclical elements of the Solar-Insolation/Tidal-Resonance Climate Model. This model was earlier referred to as the Milankovitch/Pettersson Climatic Theory. This paper provides comparable analyses of an additional 20 or so, evidently supportive, climate and volcanic time series. The tree-ring, historical, pollen, cultural, time-frequency, and hydrologic records range in length from 400 to 90,000 years and spatially from Alaska to Tierra del Fuego.

Stock assessment of soldier catfish Osteogeneiosus militaris along the northwest coast of India

Value of length growth parameters L∞, K and t(sub)0 from age-length relation obtained from length-frequency analysis for the soldier catfish stock were estimated to be 47.6 cm, 0.51 per year and 0.03 year respectively. The age at recruitment (t [sub]r) was 0.58 year and the age at first capture (t[sub]c) 0.83 year. The total mortality (Z) was 0.88 including the present natural mortality (M) of 0.84 and fishing mortality (F) of 0.04. The total stock of this fish along the Northwest coast of India was assessed to be 32,413 tons and the MSY 5,426 tons which is much higher than the current catch of 863.8 tons. The potential yield (P[sub]y) of 38.7 g per recruit could be obtained at the optimum of exploitation (t[sub]y) of 2.84 years.