A three dimensional model of Caspian Sea circulation

Observations of Caspian Sea during August - September 1995 are used to develop a three dimensional numerical for calculating temperature and current. This period was chosen because of extensive set of observational data including surface temperature observations. Data from the meteorological buoy network on Caspian Sea are combined with routine observation at first order synoptic station around the lake to obtain hourly values of wind stress and pressure fields. Initial temperature distribution as a function of depth and horizontal coordinates are derived from ship cruises. The model has variable grid resolution and horizontal smoothing which filters out small scale vertical motion. The hydrodynamic model of Caspian Sea has 6 vertical levels and a uniform horizontal grid size of 50 km The model is driven with surface fluxes of heat and momentum derived from observed meteorological. The model was able to reproduce all of the basic feature of the thermal structure in Caspian sea and: larger scale circulation patterns tend to be cyclone, with cyclone circulation with each sub basin. Result has agreement with observations.

Seasonal changes of heat and moisture fluxes from the Caspian Sea surface and its effect on synoptic systems with heavy rainfalls in southern shores of the sea during 2005-2010

Caspian Sea with its unique characteristics is a significant source to supply required heat and moisture for passing weather systems over the north of Iran. Investigation of heat and moisture fluxes in the region and their effects on these systems that could lead to floods and major financial and human losses is essential in weather forecasting. Nowadays by improvement of numerical weather and climate prediction models and the increasing need to more accurate forecasting of heavy rainfall, the evaluation and verification of these models has been become much more important. In this study we have used the WRF model as a research-practical one with many valuable characteristics and flexibilities. In this research, the effects of heat and moisture fluxes of Caspian Sea on the synoptic and dynamical structure of 20 selective systems associated with heavy rainfall in the southern shores of Caspian Sea are investigated. These systems are selected based on the rainfall data gathered by three local stations named: Rasht, Babolsar and Gorgan in different seasons during a five-year period (2005-2010) with maximum amount of rainfall through the 24 hours of a day. In addition to synoptic analyses of these systems, the WRF model with and without surface flues was run using the two nested grids with the horizontal resolutions of 12 and 36 km. The results show that there are good consistencies between the predicted distribution of rainfall field, time of beginning and end of rainfall by the model and the observations. But the model underestimates the amounts of rainfall and the maximum difference with the observation is about 69%. Also, no significant changes in the results are seen when the domain and the resolution of computations are changed. The other noticeable point is that the systems are severely weakened by removing heat and moisture fluxes and thereby the amounts of large scale rainfall are decreased up to 77% and the convective rainfalls tend to zero.