Risk analysis in aquaculture: A step-by-step introduction with worked examples

This publication is based on materials covered and outputs generated during the Workshop on Risk Assessment Methodologies and Tools for Aquaculture in Sub-Saharan Africa, which was jointly held by WorldFish and FAO in Siavonga, Zambia on 28 June - 2 July 2010. The workshop was delivered as a training exercise to 17 participants from seven sub-Saharan countries and was designed to highlight current methodologies and tools available for environmental risk analysis in aquaculture development. A key focus of the workshop was to encourage participants to consider hypothetical but realistic scenarios and to discuss issues relevant to evaluating the environmental risks of a given activity or scenario. This publication presents selected scenarios from the workshop and the outcomes of the deliberative process as developed by the participants. This publication is factual but not comprehensive, therefore any statements or estimations of risk do not represent the actual risks arising from the described scenario. It is intended to serve as an easily readable introduction to risk analysis, highlighting worked examples that will provide guidance on how a risk analysis may be approached in a similar situation.

1976 step in the Pacific climate: forty environmental changes between 1968-1975 and 1977-1984

Examination of 40 time series of multidisciplinary environmental variables from the Pacific Ocean and the Americas, collected in 1968 to 1984, demonstrated the remarkable consistency of a major climate-related, step-like change in 1976. To combine the 40 variables (e.g., air and water temperatures, Southern Oscillation, chlorophyll, geese, salmon, crabs, glaciers, atmospheric dust, coral, carbon dioxide, winds, ice cover, Bering Strait transport) into a single time series, standard variants of individual annual values (subtracting the mean and dividing by a standard deviation) were averaged. Analysis of the resulting time series showed that the single step in 1976, separating the 1968-1975 period from the 1977-1984 period, accounted for 89% of variance within the composite time series. Apparently, one of the Earth's large ecosystems occasionally undergoes large abrupt shifts.

White spot syndrome virus (WSSV) transmission risk through infected cooked shrimp products assessed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and bio-inoculation studies

The aim of the study was to evaluate the resistance of white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) in shrimps (Penaeus monodon) to the process of cooking. The cooking was carried out at 1000C six different durations 5, 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30 min. The presence of WSSV was tested by single step and nested polymerase chain reaction (PCR). In the single step PCR, the primers 1s5 & 1a16 and IK1 & IK2 were used. While in the nested PCR, primers IK1 &IK2 – IK3 & IK4 were used for the detection of WSSV. WSSV was detected in the single step PCR with the primers 1s5 and 1a16 and the nested PCR with the primers IK1 and IK2 – IK3 & IK4 from the cooked shrimp samples. The cooked shrimps, which gave positive results for WSSV by PCR, were further confirmed for the viability of WSSV by conducting the bio-inoculation studies. Mortality (100%) was observed within 123 h of intra-muscular post injection (P.I) into the live healthy WSSV-free shrimps (P. monodon). These results show that the WSSV survive the cooking process and even infected cooked shrimp products may pose a transmission risk for WSSV to the native shrimp farming systems.

Estimating the food consumption of fishes: one step in linking a species with its ecosystem

Details are given of a new software package MAXIMS which may be used to estimate the daily food consumption of fish. The software estimates the feeding times, the rates of ingestion and evacuation and related parameters. Two applications of the program are described. The first pertains to anchovy (Engraulis ringens ) with one feeding period per day, and the second one to juvenile cod (Gadus morhua ), which feed during dawn and dusk.

Rapid detection of white spot syndrome virus (WSSV) of Penaeus monodon by latex agglutination test using monoclonal antibodies

Latex beads were sensitized with monoclonal antibodies (MAb) rose against VP28 of WSSV. The optimum concentration of MAb required to sensitize the latex beads was 125 µg/ml. The sensitized latex beads were used to detect WSSV from PCR-positive stomach tissue homogenates obtained from infected shrimp. Stomach tissue homogenates from WSSV-infected shrimp agglutinated the sensitized latex beads within 10 minutes, while uninfected samples did not produce any agglutination, although non-specific agglutinations were observed in some samples. The analytical sensitivity, analytical specificity, diagnostic sensitivity and diagnostic specificity of the (LAT) agglutination test were assessed. The analytical sensitivity of the test was 40 ng of purified WSSV (2 µg/ml). The sensitized latex beads did not agglutinate with normal shrimp tissue or MBV-infected tissue homogenate. The test has a diagnostic sensitivity of 70 and 45%, respectively, compared to single-step and nested PCR. The diagnostic specificity of the test was 82%. This test is a simple and rapid on-farm test which can be used to corroborate clinical signs for the detection of WSSV in grow-out ponds.