Ecological forecasting: new tools for coastal and marine ecosystem management

Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)

Science-based restoration monitoring of coastal habitats, Volume Two: Tools for monitoring coastal habitats

Healthy coastal habitats are not only important ecologically; they also support healthy coastal communities and improve the quality of people’s lives. Despite their many benefits and values, coastal habitats have been systematically modified, degraded, and destroyed throughout the United States and its protectorates beginning with European colonization in the 1600’s (Dahl 1990). As a result, many coastal habitats around the United States are in desperate need of restoration. The monitoring of restoration projects, the focus of this document, is necessary to ensure that restoration efforts are successful, to further the science, and to increase the efficiency of future restoration efforts.

EcoGIS – GIS tools for ecosystem approaches to fisheries management

Executive Summary: The EcoGIS project was launched in September 2004 to investigate how Geographic Information Systems (GIS), marine data, and custom analysis tools can better enable fisheries scientists and managers to adopt Ecosystem Approaches to Fisheries Management (EAFM). EcoGIS is a collaborative effort between NOAA’s National Ocean Service (NOS) and National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), and four regional Fishery Management Councils. The project has focused on four priority areas: Fishing Catch and Effort Analysis, Area Characterization, Bycatch Analysis, and Habitat Interactions. Of these four functional areas, the project team first focused on developing a working prototype for catch and effort analysis: the Fishery Mapper Tool. This ArcGIS extension creates time-and-area summarized maps of fishing catch and effort from logbook, observer, or fishery-independent survey data sets. Source data may come from Oracle, Microsoft Access, or other file formats. Feedback from beta-testers of the Fishery Mapper was used to debug the prototype, enhance performance, and add features. This report describes the four priority functional areas, the development of the Fishery Mapper tool, and several themes that emerged through the parallel evolution of the EcoGIS project, the concept and implementation of the broader field of Ecosystem Approaches to Management (EAM), data management practices, and other EAM toolsets. In addition, a set of six succinct recommendations are proposed on page 29. One major conclusion from this work is that there is no single “super-tool” to enable Ecosystem Approaches to Management; as such, tools should be developed for specific purposes with attention given to interoperability and automation. Future work should be coordinated with other GIS development projects in order to provide “value added” and minimize duplication of efforts. In addition to custom tools, the development of cross-cutting Regional Ecosystem Spatial Databases will enable access to quality data to support the analyses required by EAM. GIS tools will be useful in developing Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) and providing pre- and post-processing capabilities for spatially-explicit ecosystem models. Continued funding will enable the EcoGIS project to develop GIS tools that are immediately applicable to today’s needs. These tools will enable simplified and efficient data query, the ability to visualize data over time, and ways to synthesize multidimensional data from diverse sources. These capabilities will provide new information for analyzing issues from an ecosystem perspective, which will ultimately result in better understanding of fisheries and better support for decision-making. (PDF file contains 45 pages.)

Acoustic signatures of the seafloor: Tools for predicting grouper habitat

Groupers are important components of commercial and recreational fisheries. Current methods of diver-based grouper census surveys could potentially benefit from development of remotely sensed methods of seabed classification. The goal of the present study was to determine if areas of high grouper abundance have characteristic acoustic signatures. A commercial acoustic seabed mapping system, QTC View Series V, was used to survey an area near Carysfort Reef, Florida Keys. Acoustic data were clustered using QTC IMPACT software, resulting in three main acoustic classes covering 94% of the area surveyed. Diver-based data indicate that one of the acoustic classes corresponded to hard substrate and the other two represented sediment. A new measurement of seabed heterogeneity, designated acoustic variability, was also computed from the acoustic survey data in order to more fully characterize the acoustic response (i.e., the signature) of the seafloor. When compared with diver-based grouper census data, both acoustic classification and acoustic variability were significantly different at sites with and without groupers. Sites with groupers were characterized by hard bottom substrate and high acoustic variability. Thus, the acoustic signature of a site, as measured by acoustic classification or acoustic variability, is a potentially useful tool for stratifying diver sampling effort for grouper census.

Towed vehicles: undulating platforms as tools for maping coastal processes and water quality assessment, Seaside, California, February 5-7,2007. Workshop proceedings

The Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT) Workshop on Towed Vehicles: Undulating Platforms As Tools for Mapping Coastal Processes and Water Quality Assessment was convened February 5-7,2007 at The Embassy Suites Hotel, Seaside, California and sponsored by the ACT-Pacific Coast partnership at the Moss Landing Marine Laboratories (MLML). The TUV workshop was co-chaired by Richard Burt (Chelsea Technology Group) and Stewart Lamerdin (MLML Marine Operations). Invited participants were selected to provide a uniform representation of the academic researchers, private sector product developers, and existing and potential data product users from the resource management community to enable development of broad consensus opinions on the application of TUV platforms in coastal resource assessment and management. The workshop was organized to address recognized limitations of point-based monitoring programs, which, while providing valuable data, are incapable of describing the spatial heterogeneity and the extent of features distributed in the bulk solution. This is particularly true as surveys approach the coastal zone where tidal and estuarine influences result in spatially and temporally heterogeneous water masses and entrained biological components. Aerial or satellite based remote sensing can provide an assessment of the aerial extent of plumes and blooms, yet provide no information regarding the third dimension of these features. Towed vehicles offer a cost-effective solution to this problem by providing platforms, which can sample in the horizontal, vertical, and time-based domains. Towed undulating vehicles (henceforth TUVs) represent useful platforms for event-response characterization. This workshop reviewed the current status of towed vehicle technology focusing on limitations of depth, data telemetry, instrument power demands, and ship requirements in an attempt to identify means to incorporate such technology more routinely in monitoring and event-response programs. Specifically, the participants were charged to address the following: (1) Summarize the state of the art in TUV technologies; (2) Identify how TUV platforms are used and how they can assist coastal managers in fulfilling their regulatory and management responsibilities; (3) Identify barriers and challenges to the application of TUV technologies in management and research activities, and (4) Recommend a series of community actions to overcome identified barriers and challenges. A series of plenary presentation were provided to enhance subsequent breakout discussions by the participants. Dave Nelson (University of Rhode Island) provided extensive summaries and real-world assessment of the operational features of a variety of TUV platforms available in the UNOLs scientific fleet. Dr. Burke Hales (Oregon State University) described the modification of TUV to provide a novel sampling platform for high resolution mapping of chemical distributions in near real time. Dr. Sonia Batten (Sir Alister Hardy Foundation for Ocean Sciences) provided an overview on the deployment of specialized towed vehicles equipped with rugged continuous plankton recorders on ships of opportunity to obtain long-term, basin wide surveys of zooplankton community structure, enhancing our understanding of trends in secondary production in the upper ocean. [PDF contains 32 pages]

A statistical investigation of fish prices in Nigeria

The main objective of this study is to describe and characterize the behaviour of fish prices in Nigeria. Drawing upon aspects of the data from a nationwide fish survey in 1980/81 and on various secondary data, the study analyses the pattern of fish price movement and makes projections of fish prices in Nigeria till 2002 A.D. It is concluded that unless efforts are directed at stemming inflation in fish prices, prices paid by fish consumers in Nigeria will be more than doubled within the next two decades

Fisheries statistical bulletin, Kainji Lake, northern Nigeria, 1997

The bulletin presents summary tables and charts on levels of fishing activity, fishing effort, yields and economic values of yields for the fisheries of Kainji Lake, Nigeria for the year 1997. Frame survey data and fishing gear measurements are also included. (PDF contains 34 pages)

Fisheries statistical bulletin, Kainji Lake, Nigeria, 1998

A tabulated summary is presented of the main fisheries data collected to date (1998) by the Nigerian-German Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project, together with a current overview of the fishery. The data are given under the following sections: 1) Fishing localities and types; 2) Frame survey data; 3) Number of licensed fishermen by state; 4) Mesh size distribution; 5) Fishing net characteristics; 6) Fish yield; 7) Total annual fishing effort by gear type; 8) Total annual value of fish landed by gear type; 9) Graphs of effort and CPUE by gear type. (PDF contains 36 pages)

Fisheries statistical bulletin, Kainji Lake, Nigeria, 1999

A tabulated summary is presented of the main Lake Kainji fisheries data collected to date (1999) by the Nigerian-German Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project, together with a current overview of the fishery. The data are given under the following sections: 1) Fishing localities and types; 2) Frame survey data; 3) Number of licensed fishermen by state; 4) Mesh size distribution; 5) Fishing net characteristics; 6) Fish yield; 7) Average monthly CPUE by gear type; 8)Average monthly fishing activity by gear type; 9) Total annual fishing effort by gear type; 10) Total annual value of fish landed by gear type; 11) Trends of the total yield by gear type. (PDF contains 34 pages)

Supporting regional coastal and ocean managers: Linking ocean observing tools and capabilities to the priority needs of managers and users in the southeast region

Ocean observing has been recognized by the US Commission on Ocean Policy, the Ocean Research and Resources Advisory Panel, the Joint Ocean Commission Initiative, and many other ocean policy entities and initiatives as foundational to meeting the nation’s need for more effective coastal and ocean management. The Interim Report of the Interagency Task Force on Ocean Policy (September 2009) has called for strengthening the nation’s capacity for observing the nation’s ocean, coastal, and Great Lakes systems. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Some statistical aspects of the long-term gill net monitoring programme for pike Esox lucius in Windermere (English Lake District)

For more than 55 years, data have been collected on the population of pike Esox lucius in Windermere, first by the Freshwater Biological Association (FBA) and, since 1989, by the Institute of Freshwater Ecology (IFE) of the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. The aim of this article is to explore some methodological and statistical issues associated with the precision of pike gill net catches and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data, further to those examined by Bagenal (1972) and especially in the light of the current deployment within the Windermere long-term sampling programme. Specifically, consideration is given to the precision of catch estimates from gill netting, including the effects of sampling different locations, the effectiveness of sampling for distinguishing between years, and the effects of changing fishing effort.

On statistical treatment of the results of parallel trails with special reference to fishery research

Parallel trials form a most important part of the technique of scientific experimentation. Such trials may be divided into two; categories. In the first the results are comparable measurements of one kind or another. In the second the data consist of records of the number of times a certain 'event' has occurred in the two sets of trials compared. Only trials of the second category are dealt with here. In this paper all the reliable methods of testing for significance the results of parallel trials of a certain type with special reference to fishery research are described fully. Some sections relate to exact, others to approximate tests. The only advantage in the use of the latter lies in the fact that they are often the more expeditious. Apart from this it is always preferable to use exact methods.

A-SCALA: an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis for assessing tuna stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

Statistical inference about the relative efficiency of a new survey protocol, based on paired-tow survey calibration data

Paired-tow calibration studies provide information on changes in survey catchability that may occur because of some necessary change in protocols (e.g., change in vessel or vessel gear) in a fish stock survey. This information is important to ensure the continuity of annual time-series of survey indices of stock size that provide the basis for fish stock assessments. There are several statistical models used to analyze the paired-catch data from calibration studies. Our main contributions are results from simulation experiments designed to measure the accuracy of statistical inferences derived from some of these models. Our results show that a model commonly used to analyze calibration data can provide unreliable statistical results when there is between-tow spatial variation in the stock densities at each paired-tow site. However, a generalized linear mixed-effects model gave very reliable results over a wide range of spatial variations in densities and we recommend it for the analysis of paired-tow survey calibration data. This conclusion also applies if there is between-tow variation in catchability.

Evaluation of rockfish abundance in untrawlable habitat: combining acoustic and complementary sampling tools

Rockfishes (Sebastes spp.) are an important component of North Pacific marine ecosystems and commercial fisheries. Because the rocky, high-relief substrate that rockfishes often inhabit is inaccessible to standard survey trawls, population abundance assessments for many rockfish species are difficult. As part of a large study to classify substrate and compare complementary sampling tools, we investigated the feasibility of using an acoustic survey in conjunction with a lowered stereo-video camera, a remotely operated vehicle, and a modified bottom trawl to estimate rockfish biomass in untrawlable habitat. The Snakehead Bank south of Kodiak Island, Alaska, was surveyed repeatedly over 4 days and nights. Dusky rockfish (S. variabilis), northern rockfish (S. polyspinis), and harlequin rockfish (S. variegatus) were the most abundant species observed on the bank. Backscatter attributed to rockfish were collected primarily near the seafloor at a mean height off the bottom of 1.5 m. Total rockfish backscatter and the height of backscatter off the bottom did not differ among survey passes or between night and day. Biomass estimates for the 41 square nautical-mile area surveyed on this small, predominantly untrawlable bank were 2350 metric tons (t) of dusky rockfish, 331 t of northern rockfish, and 137 t of harlequin rockfish. These biomass estimates are 5–60 times the density estimated for these rockfish species by a regularly conducted bottom trawl survey covering the bank and the surrounding shelf. This finding shows that bottom trawl surveys can underestimate the abundance of rockfishes in untrawlable areas and, therefore, may underestimate overall population abundance for these species.