Statistical analyses to support guidelines for marine avian sampling: Final report. [Digital Supplements A-G attached]

Interest in development of offshore renewable energy facilities has led to a need for high-quality, statistically robust information on marine wildlife distributions. A practical approach is described to estimate the amount of sampling effort required to have sufficient statistical power to identify species specific “hotspots” and “coldspots” of marine bird abundance and occurrence in an offshore environment divided into discrete spatial units (e.g., lease blocks), where “hotspots” and “coldspots” are defined relative to a reference (e.g., regional) mean abundance and/or occurrence probability for each species of interest. For example, a location with average abundance or occurrence that is three times larger the mean (3x effect size) could be defined as a “hotspot,” and a location that is three times smaller than the mean (1/3x effect size) as a “coldspot.” The choice of the effect size used to define hot and coldspots will generally depend on a combination of ecological and regulatory considerations. A method is also developed for testing the statistical significance of possible hotspots and coldspots. Both methods are illustrated with historical seabird survey data from the USGS Avian Compendium Database.

Investigations on the number of trials required for statistical comparison of fishing gears

The number of fishing trials required for comparing the efficiency of fishing gears was investigated. A unique solution to this problem did not appear to exist because of the heterogeneity of the experimental material. Sequential experimentation and analysis have been found to be a practical approach to this problem. By this, the experiment can be terminated almost after 35 days fishing for catches with standard error per unit as per cent of the mean about 30% or less (after logarithmic transformation). For data with mean catches less than 1.5 kg analysis of variance approach does not appear to be meaningful.

Studies of physical, chemical, and biological oceanography in the vicinity of the Revilla Gigedo Islands during the “Island Current Survey” of 1957

ENGLISH: The tendency of the tunas, especially the yellowfin (Neothunnus macropterus) to be more abundant in the near vicinity of islands and seamounts, or "banks", than in the surrounding oceanic areas, is well known to commercial fishermen. This has been confirmed by statistical analysis of fishing vessel logbook records, which demonstrates that the catch-per-day's-fishing is, indeed, higher in the near vicinity of these features. It is hypothesized that islands and seamounts cause changes in the physical circulation or the biochemical cycle resulting in greater supplies of food for tunas in their immediate environs. In order to examine this hypothesis, and in order to study possible mechanisms involved, the "Island Current Survey" was undertaken from 8 May to 12 June, 1957, under the joint auspices of the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography. Surveys of varying nature and extent were made from M/V Spencer F. Baird near Alijos Rocks, Clarion Island, Shimada Bank and Socorro Island (Figure 1). These studies sought to provide knowledge of the action of islands and seamounts in arresting, stalling or deflecting the mean current past them, in establishing convergence and divergence in the surface flow, in producing vertical motion (mixing and upwelling), and in influencing the primary production and the standing crops of phytoplankton and zooplankton. Each survey is discussed below in detail. Observations made at a front on 10 June will be discussed in another paper. SPANISH: Los pescadores que realizan la pesca comercial conocen muy bien la tendencia de los atunes, en particular del atún aleta amarilla (Neothunnus macropterus), de presentarse en mayor abundancia en las cercanías inmediatas a las islas y cimas submarinas, o "bancos", que en las áreas oceánicas circundantes. Este hecho ha sido confirmado par el análisis estadístico de los registros de los cuadernos de bitácora de las embarcaciones pesqueras, demostrándose que la captura par dias de pesca es, en efecto, más abundante en la inmediata proximidad de tales formaciones. Hipotéticamente se admite que las islas y las cimas submarinas provocan cambios en la circulación física o en el ciclo bioquímico, lo cual se pone de manifiesto a través de un mejor abastecimiento de alimento para los atunes en sus cercanías inmediatas. Con la finalidad de verificar esta hipótesis y de estudiar los mecanismos que ella involucra, se realizó la “Island Current Survey” del 8 de mayo al 12 de junio de 1957, bajo los auspicios de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical y de la Institución Scripps de Oceanografia. Con el barco Spencer F. Baird se hicieron observaciones de distintas clases y alcances cerca de las Rocas Alijos, la Isla Clarion, el Banco Shimada y la Isla Socorro (Figura 1). Estos estudios tuvieron por objeto adquirir conocimientos sobre la acción que ejercen las islas y cimas submarinas sobre la corriente promedio, ya sea deteniéndola, reduciendo su velocidad o desviando su curso, así como estableciendo convergencia o divergencia en su flujo de superficie, o provocando un movimiento vertical (mezcla y afloramiento) e influyendo en la producción primaria y en las existencias de fitoplancton y zooplancton. Cada operación será tratada a continuación por separado. Las observaciones hechas el dia 10 de junio sobre un frente serán objeto de otra publicación.

Knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of management strategies and regulations of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary by commercial fishers, dive operators, and environmental group members: A baseline characterization and 10-year comparison

This research is part of the Socioeconomic Research & Monitoring Program for the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS), which was initiated in 1998. In 1995-96, a baseline study on the knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of proposed FKNMS management strategies and regulations of commercial fishers, dive operators and on selected environmental group members was conducted by researchers at the University of Florida and the University of Miami’s Rosenstiel School of Atmospheric and Marine Science (RSMAS). The baseline study was funded by the U.S. Man and the Biosphere Program, and components of the study were published by Florida Sea Grant and in several peer reviewed journals. The study was accepted into the Socioeconomic Research & Monitoring Program at a workshop to design the program in 1998, and workshop participants recommended that the study be replicated every ten years. The 10-year replication was conducted in 2004-05 (commercial fishers) 2006 (dive operators) and 2007 (environmental group members) by the same researchers at RSMAS, while the University of Florida researchers were replaced by Thomas J. Murray & Associates, Inc., which conducted the commercial fishing panels in the FKNMS. The 10-year replication study was funded by NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation Program. The study not only makes 10-year comparisons in the knowledge, attitudes and perceptions of FKNMS management strategies and regulations, but it also establishes new baselines for future monitoring efforts. Things change, and following the principles of “adaptive management”, management has responded with changes in the management plan strategies and regulations. Some of the management strategies and regulations that were being proposed at the time of the baseline 1995-96 study were changed before the management plan and regulations went into effect in July 1997. This was especially true for the main focus of the study which was the various types of marine zones in the draft and final zoning action plan. Some of the zones proposed were changed significantly and subsequently new zones have been created. This study includes 10-year comparisons of socioeconomic/demographic profiles of each user group; sources and usefulness of information; knowledge of purposes of FKNMS zones; perceived beneficiaries of the FKNMS zones; views on FKNMS processes to develop management strategies and regulations; views on FKNMS zone outcomes; views on FKNMS performance; and general support for FKNMS. In addition to new baseline information on FKNMS zones, new baseline information was developed for spatial use, investment and costs-and-earnings for commercial fishers and dive operators, and views on resource conditions for all three user groups. Statistical tests were done to detect significant changes in both the distribution of responses to questions and changes in mean scores for items replicated over the 10-year period. (PDF has 143 pages.)

An increment technique for estimating growth parameters of tropical tunas, as applied to yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares)

ENGLISH: The rate of growth of tropical tunas has been studied by various investigators using diverse methods. Hayashi (1957) examined methods to determine the age of tunas by interpreting growth patterns on the bony or hard parts, but the results proved unreliable. Moore (1951), Hennemuth (1961), and Davidoff (1963) studied the age and growth of yellowfin tuna by the analysis of size frequency distributions. Schaefer, Chatwin and Broadhead (1961), and Fink (ms.), estimated the rate of growth of yellowfin tuna from tagging data; their estimates gave a somewhat slower rate of growth than that obtained by the study of length-frequency distributions. For the yellowfin tuna, modal groups representing age groups can be identified and followed for relatively long periods of time in length-frequency graphs. This may not be possible, however, for other tropical tunas where the modal groups may not represent identifiable age groups; this appears to be the case for skipjack tuna (Schaefer, 1962). It is necessary, therefore, to devise a method of estimating the growth rates of such species without identifying the year classes. The technique described in this study, hereafter called the "increment technique", employs the measurement of the change in length per unit of time, with respect to mean body length, without the identification of year classes. This technique is applied here as a method of estimating the growth rate of yellowfin tuna from the entire Eastern Tropical Pacific, and from the Commission's northern statistical areas (Areas 01-04 and 08) as shown in Figure 1. The growth rates of yellowfin tuna from Area 02 (Hennemuth, 1961) and from the northern areas (Davidoff, 1963) have been described by the technique of tracing modal progressions of year classes, hereafter termed the "year class technique". The growth rate analyses performed by both techniques apply to the segment of the population which is captured by tuna fishing vessels. The results obtained by both methods are compared in this report. SPANISH: La tasa del crecimiento de los atunes tropicales ha sido estudiada por varios investigadores quienes usaron diversos métodos. Hayashi (1957) examinó los métodos para determinar la edad de los atunes interpretando las marcas del crecimiento de las partes óseas o duras, pero los resultados no han demostrado eficacia. Moore (1951), Hennemuth (1961) y Davidoff (1963) estudiaron la edad y el crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla por medio del análisis de las distribuciones de la frecuencia de tamaños. Schaefer, Chatwin y Broadhead (1961) y Fink (Ms.), estimaron la tasa del crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla valiéndose de los datos de la marcación de los peces; ambos estimaron una tasa del crecimiento algo más lenta que la que se obtiene mediante el estudio de las distribuciones de la frecuencia de longitudes. Para el atún aleta amarilla, los grupos modales que representan grupos de edad pueden ser identificados y seguidos durante períodos de tiempo relativamente largos en los gráficos de la frecuencia de longitudes. Sin embargo, ésto puede no ser posible para otros atunes tropicales para los cuales los grupos modales posiblemente no representan grupos de edad identificables; este parece ser el caso para el barrilete (Schaefer, 1962). Consecuentemente, es necesario idear un método para estimar las tasas del crecimiento de las mencionadas especies sin necesidad de identificar las clases anuales. La técnica descrita en este estudio, en adelante llamada la "técnica incremental", emplea la medida del cambio en la longitud por unidad de tiempo, con respecto al promedio de la longitud corporal, sin tener que identificar las clases anuales. Esta técnica se aplica aquí como un método para estimar la tasa del crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla de todo el Pacífico Oriental Tropical, y de las áreas estadísticas norteñas de la Comisión (Areas 01-04 y 08), como se muestra en la Figura 1. Las tasas del crecimiento del atún aleta amarilla del Area 02 (Hennemuth, 1961) y de las áreas del norte (Davidoff, 1963), han sido descritas por medio de una técnica que consiste en delinear las progresiones modales de las clases anuales, en adelante llamada la "técnica de la clase anual". Los análisis de la tasa del crecimiento llevados a cabo por ambas técnicas se refieren al segmento de la población capturada por embarcaciones pesqueras de atún. Los resultados obtenidos por ambos métodos se comparan en este informe.

A statistical investigation of fish prices in Nigeria

The main objective of this study is to describe and characterize the behaviour of fish prices in Nigeria. Drawing upon aspects of the data from a nationwide fish survey in 1980/81 and on various secondary data, the study analyses the pattern of fish price movement and makes projections of fish prices in Nigeria till 2002 A.D. It is concluded that unless efforts are directed at stemming inflation in fish prices, prices paid by fish consumers in Nigeria will be more than doubled within the next two decades

An investigation of the effect of replacing fish meal with soyabean meal, groundnut cake and blood meal at varied proportion on growth and food utilization of the Clarias anguillaris fingerlings fed in outdoor hapas

Fingerlings of Clarias anguillaris obtained from a homogenous source through induce breeding and each with a mean weight of 2.8g were stocked in ten hapas each measuring 1.0x1.0m in outdoor concrete tank and were fed for eight (8) weeks. Results shows that the best growth rate was recorded among fingerlings fed fish meal as the only protein source (TD5) while DT2 containing soya bean, groundnut cake (40%), blood meal as the protein sources came next. The growth rate of fingerlings fed DT2 (40 % groundnut cake, 10% soyabean meal and 10% blood meal) was higher than those fed DT4 containing 10% fish meal but lower than those fed DT5 which has fish meal as its sole source of protein (53.0%). Analysis of various growth parameters like SGR, FCR and PER. shows that DT5 was the overall best diet but there was no significant statistical difference in weight gained by fish fed the five diets (P <0.05)

Fisheries statistical bulletin, Kainji Lake, northern Nigeria, 1997

The bulletin presents summary tables and charts on levels of fishing activity, fishing effort, yields and economic values of yields for the fisheries of Kainji Lake, Nigeria for the year 1997. Frame survey data and fishing gear measurements are also included. (PDF contains 34 pages)

Fisheries statistical bulletin, Kainji Lake, Nigeria, 1998

A tabulated summary is presented of the main fisheries data collected to date (1998) by the Nigerian-German Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project, together with a current overview of the fishery. The data are given under the following sections: 1) Fishing localities and types; 2) Frame survey data; 3) Number of licensed fishermen by state; 4) Mesh size distribution; 5) Fishing net characteristics; 6) Fish yield; 7) Total annual fishing effort by gear type; 8) Total annual value of fish landed by gear type; 9) Graphs of effort and CPUE by gear type. (PDF contains 36 pages)

Fisheries statistical bulletin, Kainji Lake, Nigeria, 1999

A tabulated summary is presented of the main Lake Kainji fisheries data collected to date (1999) by the Nigerian-German Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project, together with a current overview of the fishery. The data are given under the following sections: 1) Fishing localities and types; 2) Frame survey data; 3) Number of licensed fishermen by state; 4) Mesh size distribution; 5) Fishing net characteristics; 6) Fish yield; 7) Average monthly CPUE by gear type; 8)Average monthly fishing activity by gear type; 9) Total annual fishing effort by gear type; 10) Total annual value of fish landed by gear type; 11) Trends of the total yield by gear type. (PDF contains 34 pages)

Some statistical aspects of the long-term gill net monitoring programme for pike Esox lucius in Windermere (English Lake District)

For more than 55 years, data have been collected on the population of pike Esox lucius in Windermere, first by the Freshwater Biological Association (FBA) and, since 1989, by the Institute of Freshwater Ecology (IFE) of the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. The aim of this article is to explore some methodological and statistical issues associated with the precision of pike gill net catches and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data, further to those examined by Bagenal (1972) and especially in the light of the current deployment within the Windermere long-term sampling programme. Specifically, consideration is given to the precision of catch estimates from gill netting, including the effects of sampling different locations, the effectiveness of sampling for distinguishing between years, and the effects of changing fishing effort.

Surface water temperature of Windermere. Monthly and yearly totals of degree-days centigrade and monthly mean temperatures, 1933 to 1975

The surface temperature of Windermere has been recorded by the staff of the Freshwater Biological Association on every weekday (with a few minor exceptions) since 11 January 1933. This publication presents this information in a form which can easily be used by individual research workers. There are 43 tables (1 for each year, 1933-1975) which give the data, expressed as degree-days centigrade. The tables show for each month the number of degree-days above each temperature from 0 degree C to the highest recorded, at 1 degree C intervals. Mean temperatures are obtained by dividing the number of degree-days over 0 degree C by the relevant number of days. The advantage of degree-days rather than mean temperatures is that degree-days are additive so data for any desired periods may be combined quickly and simply. Seasonal results for spring, summer, autumn and winter are presented in tabular form, as are selected totals for comparisons between years. Further tables give the mean temperature in each month of the year, and the frequency distributions of monthly mean temperatures.

On statistical treatment of the results of parallel trails with special reference to fishery research

Parallel trials form a most important part of the technique of scientific experimentation. Such trials may be divided into two; categories. In the first the results are comparable measurements of one kind or another. In the second the data consist of records of the number of times a certain 'event' has occurred in the two sets of trials compared. Only trials of the second category are dealt with here. In this paper all the reliable methods of testing for significance the results of parallel trials of a certain type with special reference to fishery research are described fully. Some sections relate to exact, others to approximate tests. The only advantage in the use of the latter lies in the fact that they are often the more expeditious. Apart from this it is always preferable to use exact methods.

A-SCALA: an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis for assessing tuna stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

Statistical inference about the relative efficiency of a new survey protocol, based on paired-tow survey calibration data

Paired-tow calibration studies provide information on changes in survey catchability that may occur because of some necessary change in protocols (e.g., change in vessel or vessel gear) in a fish stock survey. This information is important to ensure the continuity of annual time-series of survey indices of stock size that provide the basis for fish stock assessments. There are several statistical models used to analyze the paired-catch data from calibration studies. Our main contributions are results from simulation experiments designed to measure the accuracy of statistical inferences derived from some of these models. Our results show that a model commonly used to analyze calibration data can provide unreliable statistical results when there is between-tow spatial variation in the stock densities at each paired-tow site. However, a generalized linear mixed-effects model gave very reliable results over a wide range of spatial variations in densities and we recommend it for the analysis of paired-tow survey calibration data. This conclusion also applies if there is between-tow variation in catchability.