Environmental and aesthetic impacts of small docks and piers, workshop report: Developing a science-based decision support tool for small dock management, phase 1: Status of the science

Few issues confronting coastal resource managers are as divisive or difficult to manage as regulating the construction of private recreational docks and piers associated with residential development. State resource managers face a growing population intent on living on or near the coast, coupled with an increasing desire to have immediate access to the water by private docks or piers. (PDF contains 69 pages)

Netzmaterial und Selektivität in der Ostseedorschfischerei

Since some time fishing gear scientists express their concern over an observed tendency of the commercial fishery to proceed from codend netting yarns of 3 to 4 mm to higher values or to switch to the use of double instead of single yarn. A recent large EU-financed project collected statistical evidence on the detrimental effect of such behaviour on the selectivity of the codends. In this context data on cod are very scarce. German-Polish experiments in the Baltic from 1999 to 2001 aimed at filling this gap. The investigations prove a clear evidence of a negativ ecorrelation between netting yarn diameter and selectivity factor and/or L50. In addition they demonstrate a clear negative effect on selectivity when switching from single to double yarn The effects are of an order of magnitude that counteracting effects as catch size are masked and support the decision of the IBSFC to define maximum yarn diameters both for single and double yarn netting. A measuring instrument for the enforcement of these new regulations was introduced right in time.

A statistical investigation of fish prices in Nigeria

The main objective of this study is to describe and characterize the behaviour of fish prices in Nigeria. Drawing upon aspects of the data from a nationwide fish survey in 1980/81 and on various secondary data, the study analyses the pattern of fish price movement and makes projections of fish prices in Nigeria till 2002 A.D. It is concluded that unless efforts are directed at stemming inflation in fish prices, prices paid by fish consumers in Nigeria will be more than doubled within the next two decades

Fisheries statistical bulletin, Kainji Lake, northern Nigeria, 1997

The bulletin presents summary tables and charts on levels of fishing activity, fishing effort, yields and economic values of yields for the fisheries of Kainji Lake, Nigeria for the year 1997. Frame survey data and fishing gear measurements are also included. (PDF contains 34 pages)

Fisheries statistical bulletin, Kainji Lake, Nigeria, 1998

A tabulated summary is presented of the main fisheries data collected to date (1998) by the Nigerian-German Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project, together with a current overview of the fishery. The data are given under the following sections: 1) Fishing localities and types; 2) Frame survey data; 3) Number of licensed fishermen by state; 4) Mesh size distribution; 5) Fishing net characteristics; 6) Fish yield; 7) Total annual fishing effort by gear type; 8) Total annual value of fish landed by gear type; 9) Graphs of effort and CPUE by gear type. (PDF contains 36 pages)

Fisheries statistical bulletin, Kainji Lake, Nigeria, 1999

A tabulated summary is presented of the main Lake Kainji fisheries data collected to date (1999) by the Nigerian-German Kainji Lake Fisheries Promotion Project, together with a current overview of the fishery. The data are given under the following sections: 1) Fishing localities and types; 2) Frame survey data; 3) Number of licensed fishermen by state; 4) Mesh size distribution; 5) Fishing net characteristics; 6) Fish yield; 7) Average monthly CPUE by gear type; 8)Average monthly fishing activity by gear type; 9) Total annual fishing effort by gear type; 10) Total annual value of fish landed by gear type; 11) Trends of the total yield by gear type. (PDF contains 34 pages)

Decision support systems optimising effluent release in sub tropical estuarine environment - An Australian case study

Gold Coast Water is responsible for the management of the water and wastewater assets of the City of the Gold Coast on Australia’s east coast. Treated wastewater is released at the Gold Coast Seaway on an outgoing tide in order for the plume to be dispersed before the tide changes and renters the Broadwater estuary. Rapid population growth over the past decade has placed increasing demands on the receiving waters for the release of the City’s effluent. The Seaway SmartRelease Project is designed to optimise the release of the effluent from the City’s main wastewater treatment plant in order to minimise the impact of the estuarine water quality and maximise the cost efficiency of pumping. In order to do this an optimisation study that involves water quality monitoring, numerical modelling and a web based decision support system was conducted. An intensive monitoring campaign provided information on water levels, currents, winds, waves, nutrients and bacterial levels within the Broadwater. These data were then used to calibrate and verify numerical models using the MIKE by DHI suite of software. The decision support system then collects continually measured data such as water levels, interacts with the WWTP SCADA system, runs the models in forecast mode and provides the optimal time window to release the required amount of effluent from the WWTP. The City’s increasing population means that the length of time available for releasing the water with minimal impact may be exceeded within 5 years. Optimising the release of the treated water through monitoring, modelling and a decision support system has been an effective way of demonstrating the limited environmental impact of the expected short term increase in effluent disposal procedures. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Panel discussion: U.S. EPA using modeling and ecosystem services to enhance coastal decision making

This panel will discuss the research being conducted, and the models being used in three current coastal EPA studies being conducted on ecosystem services in Tampa Bay, the Chesapeake Bay and the Coastal Carolinas. These studies are intended to provide a broader and more comprehensive approach to policy and decision-making affecting coastal ecosystems as well as provide an account of valued services that have heretofore been largely unrecognized. Interim research products, including updated and integrated spatial data, models and model frameworks, and interactive decision support systems will be demonstrated to engage potential users and to elicit feedback. It is anticipated that the near-term impact of the projects will be to increase the awareness by coastal communities and coastal managers of the implications of their actions and to foster partnerships for ecosystem services research and applications. (PDF contains 4 pages)

To pave or not to pave: A social landscape analysis of land use decision-making in the towns of the lamprey watershed

Population pressure in coastal New Hampshire challenges land use decision-making and threatens the ecological health and functioning of Great Bay, an estuary designated as both a NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve and an EPA National Estuary Program site. Regional population in the seacoast has quadrupled in four decades resulting in sprawl, increased impervious surface cover and larger lot rural development (Zankel, et.al., 2006). All of Great Bay’s contributing watersheds face these challenges, resulting in calls for strategies addressing growth, development and land use planning. The communities within the Lamprey River watershed comprise this case study. Do these towns communicate upstream and downstream when making land use decisions? Are cumulative effects considered while debating development? Do town land use groups consider the Bay or the coasts in their decision-making? This presentation, a follow-up from the TCS 2008 conference and a completed dissertation, will discuss a novel social science approach to analyze and understand the social landscape of land use decision-making in the towns of the Lamprey River watershed. The methods include semi-structured interviews with GIS based maps in a grounded theory analytical strategy. The discussion will include key findings, opportunities and challenges in moving towards a watershed approach for land use planning. This presentation reviews the results of the case study and developed methodology, which can be used in watersheds elsewhere to map out the potential for moving towns towards EBM and watershed-scaled, land use planning. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Using climate extension to assist coastal decision-makers with climate adaptation

Coastal managers need accessible, trusted, tailored resources to help them interpret climate information, identify vulnerabilities, and apply climate information to decisions about adaptation on regional and local levels. For decades, climate scientists have studied the impacts that short term natural climate variability and long term climate change will have on coastal systems. For example, recent estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming scenarios suggest that global sea levels may rise 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100 (Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2009). Many low-lying coastal ecosystems and communities will experience more frequent salt water intrusion events, more frequent coastal flooding, and accelerated erosion rates before they experience significant inundation. These changes will affect the ways coastal managers make decisions, such as timing surface and groundwater withdrawals, replacing infrastructure, and planning for changing land use on local and regional levels. Despite the advantages, managers’ use of scientific information about climate variability and change remains limited in environmental decision-making (Dow and Carbone 2007). Traditional methods scientists use to disseminate climate information, like peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at conferences, are inappropriate to fill decision-makers’ needs for applying accessible, relevant climate information to decision-making. General guides that help managers scope out vulnerabilities and risks are becoming more common; for example, Snover et al. (2007) outlines a basic process for local and state governments to assess climate change vulnerability and preparedness. However, there are few tools available to support more specific decision-making needs. A recent survey of coastal managers in California suggests that boundary institutions can help to fill the gaps between climate science and coastal decision-making community (Tribbia and Moser 2008). The National Sea Grant College Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) university-based program for supporting research and outreach on coastal resource use and conservation, is one such institution working to bridge these gaps through outreach. Over 80% of Sea Grant’s 32 programs are addressing climate issues, and over 60% of programs increased their climate outreach programming between 2006 and 2008 (National Sea Grant Office 2008). One way that Sea Grant is working to assist coastal decision-makers with using climate information is by developing effective methods for coastal climate extension. The purpose of this paper is to discuss climate extension methodologies on regional scales, using the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) as an example of Sea Grant’s growing capacities for climate outreach and extension. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Deciding to evacuate: Gathering the information to make this important decision

When hazardous storms threaten coastal communities, people need information to decide how to respond to this potential emergency. NOAA and NC Sea Grant are funding a two-year project (Risk Perceptions and Emergency Communication Effectiveness in Coastal Zones) to learn how residents, government officials, businesses and other organizations are informed and use information regarding hurricane and tropical storms. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Some statistical aspects of the long-term gill net monitoring programme for pike Esox lucius in Windermere (English Lake District)

For more than 55 years, data have been collected on the population of pike Esox lucius in Windermere, first by the Freshwater Biological Association (FBA) and, since 1989, by the Institute of Freshwater Ecology (IFE) of the NERC Centre for Ecology and Hydrology. The aim of this article is to explore some methodological and statistical issues associated with the precision of pike gill net catches and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data, further to those examined by Bagenal (1972) and especially in the light of the current deployment within the Windermere long-term sampling programme. Specifically, consideration is given to the precision of catch estimates from gill netting, including the effects of sampling different locations, the effectiveness of sampling for distinguishing between years, and the effects of changing fishing effort.

On statistical treatment of the results of parallel trails with special reference to fishery research

Parallel trials form a most important part of the technique of scientific experimentation. Such trials may be divided into two; categories. In the first the results are comparable measurements of one kind or another. In the second the data consist of records of the number of times a certain 'event' has occurred in the two sets of trials compared. Only trials of the second category are dealt with here. In this paper all the reliable methods of testing for significance the results of parallel trials of a certain type with special reference to fishery research are described fully. Some sections relate to exact, others to approximate tests. The only advantage in the use of the latter lies in the fact that they are often the more expeditious. Apart from this it is always preferable to use exact methods.

A-SCALA: an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis for assessing tuna stocks in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

Statistical inference about the relative efficiency of a new survey protocol, based on paired-tow survey calibration data

Paired-tow calibration studies provide information on changes in survey catchability that may occur because of some necessary change in protocols (e.g., change in vessel or vessel gear) in a fish stock survey. This information is important to ensure the continuity of annual time-series of survey indices of stock size that provide the basis for fish stock assessments. There are several statistical models used to analyze the paired-catch data from calibration studies. Our main contributions are results from simulation experiments designed to measure the accuracy of statistical inferences derived from some of these models. Our results show that a model commonly used to analyze calibration data can provide unreliable statistical results when there is between-tow spatial variation in the stock densities at each paired-tow site. However, a generalized linear mixed-effects model gave very reliable results over a wide range of spatial variations in densities and we recommend it for the analysis of paired-tow survey calibration data. This conclusion also applies if there is between-tow variation in catchability.