In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

From organism to population: the role of life-history theory

The role of life-history theory in population and evolutionary analyses is outlined. In both cases general life histories can be analysed, but simpler life histories need fewer parameters for their description. The simplest case, of semelparous (breed-once-then-die) organisms, needs only three parameters: somatic growth rate, mortality rate and fecundity. This case is analysed in detail. If fecundity is fixed, population growth rate can be calculated direct from mortality rate and somatic growth rate, and isoclines on which population growth rate is constant can be drawn in a ”state space” with axes for mortality rate and somatic growth rate. In this space density-dependence is likely to result in a population trajectory from low density, when mortality rate is low and somatic growth rate is high and the population increases (positive population growth rate) to high density, after which the process reverses to return to low density. Possible effects of pollution on this system are discussed. The state-space approach allows direct population analysis of the twin effects of pollution and density on population growth rate. Evolutionary analysis uses related methods to identify likely evolutionary outcomes when an organism's genetic options are subject to trade-offs. The trade-off considered here is between somatic growth rate and mortality rate. Such a trade-off could arise because of an energy allocation trade-off if resources spent on personal defence (reducing mortality rate) are not available for somatic growth rate. The evolutionary implications of pollution acting on such a trade-off are outlined.

Long-term and seasonal patterns in coastal temperature and salinity along the North American west coast

Numerous integrated time series have been assembled that suggest global temperature has been increasing steadily over the last century. ... However, superimposed on the long-term warming trends of these series are decadal-scale fluctuations, periods of slightly increasing and even decreasing temperature followed by rapid increases in temperature. ... In this pilot study, data for 1931-1990 from eight [western North America] coastal stations are examined to test the utility of a state-space statistical model (developed by Dr. Roy Mendelssohn, PFEG) in separating and describing seasonal patterns and long-term trends.

Initial Hydraulic modelling and Levee Stability Analysis of the Triple M Ranch Restoration Project

“Advanced Watershed Science and Policy (ESSP 660)” is a graduate class taught in the Master of Science in Coastal and Watershed Science & Policy program at California State University Monterey Bay (CSUMB). In 2007, the class was taught in four 4-week modules, each focusing on a local watershed issue. This report is one outcome of one of those 4-week modules taught in the fall 2007 session. (Document contains 32 pages)

Looking for safe harbor in a crowded sea: Coastal space use conflict and marine renewable energy development

Technological advances in the marine renewable energy industry and increased clarity about the leasing and licensing process are fostering development proposals in both state and federal waters. The ocean is becoming more industrialized and competition among all marine space users is developing (Buck et al. 2004). More spatial competition can lead to conflict between ocean users themselves, and to tensions that spill over to include other stakeholders and the general public (McGrath 2004). Such conflict can wind up in litigation, which is costly and takes agency time and financial resources away from other priorities. As proposals for marine renewable energy developments are evaluated, too often decision-makers lack the tools and information to properly account for the cumulative effects and the tradeoffs associated with alternative human uses of the ocean. This paper highlights the nature of marine space conflicts associated with marine renewable energy literature highlights key issues for the growth of the marine renewable energy sector in the United States. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Marine spatial planning approaches at the state level: Similarities and differences between MSP efforts across the country

Competing uses, sensitive and valuable marine resources, and overlapping jurisdictions complicate management decision making in the marine environment. States are developing marine spatial planning capacity to help make better decisions, particularly as demand for ocean space and resources is growing because of emerging human uses (renewable energy, aquaculture) and traditional human uses (commercial fishing, commerce). This paper offers perspectives on marine spatial planning efforts being carried out in four states across the US, and demonstrates similarities and differences between them. The approach to marine spatial planning in each state is discussed with specific attention given to issues such as what is driving the effort, data availability, maturity of the effort, and level of resources devoted to it. Highlighting the similarities and differences illustrates state and region specific challenges and the approaches being used to meet them. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Testable models of aquatic systems: A NERC special topic for integrating experiments and modelling

A major part of the support for fundamental research on aquatic ecosystems continues to be provided by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC). Funds are released for ”thematic” studies in a selected special topic or programme. ”Testable Models of Aquatic Ecosystems” was a Special Topic of the NERC, initiated in 1995, the aim of which was to promote ecological modelling by making new links between experimental aquatic biologists and state-of-the-art modellers. The Topic covered both marine and freshwater systems. This paper summarises projects on aspects of the responses of individual organisms to the effects of environmental variability, on the assembly, permanence and resilience of communities, and on aspects of spatial models. The authors conclude that the NERC Special Topic has been highly successful in promoting the development and application of models, most particularly through the interplay between experimental ecologists and formal modellers.