Report of the special session of "Chesapeake Bay Ecological Forecasting: Moving Ecosystem Modeling from Research to Operation" of the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium

Moving ecosystem modeling from research to applications and operations has direct management relevance and will be integral to achieving the water quality and living resource goals of the 2010 Chesapeake Bay Executive Order. Yet despite decades of ecosystem modeling efforts of linking climate to water quality, plankton and fish, ecological models are rarely taken to the operational phase. In an effort to promote operational ecosystem modeling and ecological forecasting in Chesapeake Bay, a meeting was convened on this topic at the 2010 Chesapeake Modeling Symposium (May, 10-11). These presentations show that tremendous progress has been made over the last five years toward the development of operational ecological forecasting models, and that efforts in Chesapeake Bay are leading the way nationally. Ecological forecasts predict the impacts of chemical, biological, and physical changes on ecosystems, ecosystem components, and people. They have great potential to educate and inform not only ecosystem management, but also the outlook and opinion of the general public, for whom we manage coastal ecosystems. In the context of the Chesapeake Bay Executive Order, ecological forecasting can be used to identify favorable restoration sites, predict which sites and species will be viable under various climate scenarios, and predict the impact of a restoration project on water quality.

Influence of shelf-break fronts on shellfish and fish stocks off Argentina [Contribution to ICES Annual Science Conference, Reykjavik, Iceland, 27 Sep- 04 Oct 1996]

The general circulation pattern in the western boundary of the SW Atlantic is dominated by the opposite flows of Malvinas (-Falkland)and Brazil Current. In the Confluence region both currents separate from the continental slope and flow offshore creating an area of strong contracts and complex dynamics. The shelf-break fronts off Argentina mark the transition between shelf waters of mixed origin and nutrient rich Malvinas waters. Two areas deserve special attention due to the steep gradients introduced by the outflow of important sources of continental waters: the Rio de la Plata and the Magellan Strait to the north and south of the study area. Characteristics of the front is the high primary and secondary production, and the presence of important invertebrate and fish stocks that concentrate along the front to feed or spawn. The area comprises nearly 30 o/o (333 million U$S in 1995)of all Argentine catches of fish and squid. Resources in the area, beyond the EEZ limits, support international fisheries mainly of Russia, Poland and Spain. (Document contains 15 pages & figs)

Caribbean connectivity: implications for Marine Protected Area Management. Proceedings of a Special Symposium, 9-11 November 2006, 59th Annual Meeting of the Gulf and Caribbean Fisheries Institute, Belize City, Belize

Executive Summary: Tropical marine ecosystems in the Caribbean region are inextricably linked through the movement of pollutants, nutrients, diseases, and other stressors, which threaten to further degrade coral reef communities. The magnitude of change that is occurring within the region is considerable, and solutions will require investigating pros and cons of networks of marine protected areas (MPAs), cooperation of neighboring countries, improved understanding of how external stressors degrade local marine resources, and ameliorating those stressors. Connectivity can be broadly defined as the exchange of materials (e.g., nutrients and pollutants), organisms, and genes and can be divided into: 1) genetic or evolutionary connectivity that concerns the exchange of organisms and genes, 2) demographic connectivity, which is the exchange of individuals among local groups, and 3) oceanographic connectivity, which includes flow of materials and circulation patterns and variability that underpin much of all these exchanges. Presently, we understand little about connectivity at specific locations beyond model outputs, and yet we must manage MPAs with connectivity in mind. A key to successful MPA management is how to most effectively work with scientists to acquire the information managers need. Oceanography connectivity is poorly understood, and even less is known about the shape of the dispersal curve for most species. Dispersal kernels differ for various systems, species, and life histories and are likely highly variable in space and time. Furthermore, the implications of different dispersal kernels on population dynamics and management of species is unknown. However, small dispersal kernels are the norm - not the exception. Linking patterns of dispersal to management options is difficult given the present state of knowledge. The behavioral component of larval dispersal has a major impact on where larvae settle. Individual larval behavior and life history details are required to produce meaningful simulations of population connectivity. Biological inputs are critical determinants of dispersal outcomes beyond what can be gleaned from models of passive dispersal. There is considerable temporal and spatial variation to connectivity patterns. New models are increasingly being developed, but these must be validated to understand upstream-downstream neighborhoods, dispersal corridors, stepping stones, and source/sink dynamics. At present, models are mainly useful for providing generalities and generating hypotheses. Low-technology approaches such as drifter vials and oceanographic drogues are useful, affordable options for understanding local connectivity. The “silver bullet” approach to MPA design may not be possible for several reasons. Genetic connectivity studies reveal divergent population genetic structures despite similar larval life histories. Historical stochasticity in reproduction and/or recruitment likely has important, longlasting consequences on present day genetic structure. (PDF has 200 pages.)

Fisheries development in Nigeria with special reference to Cross River State

The paper appraises fisheries development in Nigeria with specific reference to Cross River State and the problems militating against increased fish production. The potential for developing the industry to supplement the low level of animal protein consumption in Nigeria is discussed as well as the import of a vibrant fishery industry to contribute to the employment and international trade. The need to legislate on fisheries activities while enforcing the existing laws for sustainable exploitation of the fisheries resources is elaborated. Similarly, the need to maximize the proceeds from Nigeria's Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) by protecting the operations of this economic sector and other unauthorized fishing practices is elucidated. In view of the present situation where most of the country's water bodies have been over-fished, more attention and emphasis should be placed on aquaculture development. The paper also proffers recommendations to boost fish production in capture and culture fisheries

Challenges in using science-based shoreline setbacks: Examples from South Carolina

Beachfront jurisdictional lines were established by the South Carolina Beachfront Management Act (SC Code §48- 39-250 et seq.) in 1988 to regulate the new construction, repair, or reconstruction of buildings and erosion control structures along the state’s ocean shorelines. Building within the state’s beachfront “setback area” is allowed, but is subject to special regulations. For “standard beaches” (those not influenced by tidal inlets or associated shoals), a baseline is established at the crest of the primary oceanfront sand dune; for “unstabilized inlet zones,” the baseline is drawn at the most landward point of erosion during the past forty years. The parallel setback line is then established landward of the baseline a distance of forty times the long-term average annual erosion rate (not less than twenty feet from the baseline in stable or accreting areas). The positions of the baseline and setback line are updated every 8-10 years using the best available scientific and historical data, including aerial imagery, LiDAR, historical shorelines, beach profiles, and long-term erosion rates. One advantage of science-based setbacks is that, by using actual historical and current shoreline positions and beach profile data, they reflect the general erosion threat to beachfront structures. However, recent experiences with revising the baseline and setback line indicate that significant challenges and management implications also exist. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Sediment quality triad assessment in Kachemak Bay: characterization of soft bottom benthic habitats and contaminant bioeffects assessment condensed. A NOAA/NOS/NCCOS/CCMA Special Report

A baseline environmental characterization of the inner Kachemak Bay, Alaska was conducted using standardized National Status and Trends Bioeffects Program methods. Three sites near the village of Port Graham were also sampled for comparison. Concentrations of over 120 organic and metallic contaminants were analyzed. Ambient toxicity was assessed using two bioassays. A detailed benthic community condition assessment was performed. Habitat parameters (e.g. depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content) that influence species and contaminant distribution were also measured at each sampling site. The following is the synopsis of findings • Sediments were mostly mixed silt and sand with pockets of muddy zones. Organic compounds (PAHs, DDTs, PCBs, chlorinated pesticides) were detected throughout the bay but at relatively low concentrations. With some exceptions, metals concentrations were relatively low and probably reflect the input of glacial runoff. • Homer Harbor had elevated concentrations of metallic and organic contaminants. Concentrations of organic contaminants measured were five to ten times higher in the harbor sites than in the open bay sites. Tributyltin was elevated in Homer Harbor relative to the other areas. • There was no evidence of residual PAHs attributable to oil spills, outside of local input in the confines of the harbor. • The benthic community is very diverse. Specific community assemblages were distributed based on depth and water clarity. Species richness and diversity was lower in the eastern end of the bay in the vicinity of the Fox River input. Abundance was also generally lower in the eastern portion of the study area, and in the intertidal areas near Homer. The eastern portions of the bay are stressed by the sediment load from glacial meltwater. • Significant toxicity was virtually absent. • The benthic fauna at Port Graham contained a significant number of species not found in Kachemak Bay. • Selected metal concentrations were elevated at Port Graham relative to Kachemak Bay, probably due to local geology. Organic contaminants were elevated at a site south of the village.

Remote sensing of the oceans from space with special reference to marine resources

A number of ocean science fields have profitted, either directly or indirectly from satellite remote sensing, including physical, biological and geological oceanography. User oriented applications include fishing, shipping, offshore drilling and mining, coastal engineering and coastal hydrology. Following a brief account of the technology involved, areas in oceanography benefitting from satellite information are detailed. Examples are given of satellite data applications to marine resources.

Investigation on the ecological impact of constructing and activities of petrochemical industries of petrochemical special economic zone of Mahshahr on the abundance and diversity of macrobenthic fauna in Jafari Creek, north-west of the Persian Gulf

The impact of Petrochemical Special Economic Zone (PETZONE) activities on the health status of Jafari Creek was studied by assessing the changes in macroinvertebrate assemblages in nine sites during September 2006- January 2008. Furthermore to evaluate the ecological status of the Jafari Creek the WFD indices (i.e. AMBI, M-AMBI) were used. The relationship between spatial pattern of macro invertebrate assemblages and ambient factors (i.e. water temperature, salinity, pH, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solid, total hardness, total nitrogen, ammonia, total phosphorous, chemical oxygen demand, biological oxygen demand, sediment grain size distribution, sediment organic content, heavy metals contents) was measured. Background Enrichment indices, Contamination factor and Contamination degree, were used to assess the health status in the study area based on Nickel, Lead, Cadmium and Mercury contents of the sediments. The macrobenthic communities had a low diversity and were dominated by opportunistic taxa, and the AMBI and M-AMBI indices need to be calibrated before using in Persian Gulf and its coastal waters. The BIO-ENV analysis identified pH, dissolved oxygen, TDS, and the total organic content of sediments as the major environmental variables influencing the infaunal pattern. This suggests that management should attempt to ensure minimal disturbance to environmental variables underlying the spatial variation in macroinvertebrate assemblages. Background Enrichment indices showed that the health of Jafari Creek has declined over time due to the constant discharge of heavy metals to the Creek system. Furthermore WQS index shows that the quality condition of the water column in Jafari Creek, regard to the calculated number (3) is week. These indices also identified a significant degree of pollution in the study area. The decrease in the ecological potential of Jafari Creek was best highlighted by the alteration in macrobenthic assemblages.