Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

Proceedings of the Workshop on the Okhotsk Sea and Adjacent Areas [Vladivostok, June 1995]

I REPORT OF THE PICES WORKSHOP ON THE OKHOTSK SEA AND ADJACENT AREAS (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 1. Outline of the workshop 2. Summary reports from sessions 3. Recommendations of the workshop 4. Acknowledgments II SCIENTIFIC PAPERS SUBMITTED FROM SESSIONS 1. Physical Oceanography Sessions (pdf, 4 Mb) A. Circulation and water mass structure of the Okhotsk Sea and Northwestern Pacific Valentina D. Budaeva & Vyacheslav G. Makarov Seasonal variability of the pycnocline in La Perouse Strait and Aniva Gulf Valentina D. Budaeva & Vyacheslav G. Makarov Modeling of the typical water circulations in the La Perouse Strait and Aniva Gulf region Nina A. Dashko, Sergey M. Varlamov, Young-Ho Han & Young-Seup Kim Anticyclogenesis over the Okhotsk Sea and its influence on weather Boris S. Dyakov, Alexander A. Nikitin & Vadim P. Pavlychev Research of water structure and dynamics in the Okhotsk Sea and adjacent Pacific Howard J. Freeland, Alexander S. Bychkov, C.S. Wong, Frank A. Whitney & Gennady I. Yurasov The Ohkotsk Sea component of Pacific Intermediate Water Emil E. Herbeck, Anatoly I. Alexanin, Igor A. Gontcharenko, Igor I. Gorin, Yury V. Naumkin & Yury G. Proshjants Some experience of the satellite environmental support of marine expeditions at the Far East Seas Alexander A. Karnaukhov The tidal influence on the Sakhalin shelf hydrology Yasuhiro Kawasaki On the formation process of the subsurface mixed water around the Central Kuril Islands Lloyd D. Keigwin Northwest Pacific paleohydrography Talgat R. Kilmatov Physical mechanisms for the North Pacific Intermediate Water formation Vladimir A. Luchin Water masses in the Okhotsk Sea Andrey V. Martynov, Elena N. Golubeva & Victor I. Kuzin Numerical experiments with finite element model of the Okhotsk Sea circulation Nikolay A. Maximenko, Anatoly I. Kharlamov & Raissa I. Gouskina Structure of Intermediate Water layer in the Northwest Pacific Nikolay A. Maximenko & Andrey Yu. Shcherbina Fine-structure of the North Pacific Intermediate Water layer Renat D. Medjitov & Boris I. Reznikov An experimental study of water transport through the Straits of Okhotsk Sea by electromagnetic method Valentina V. Moroz Oceanological zoning of the Kuril Islands area in the spring-summer period Yutaka Nagata Note on the salinity balance in the Okhotsk Sea Alexander D. Nelezin Variability of the Kuroshio Front in 1965-1991 Vladimir I. Ponomarev, Evgeny P. Varlaty & Mikhail Yu. Cheranyev An experimental study of currents in the near-Kuril region of the Pacific Ocean and in the Okhotsk Sea Stephen C. Riser, Gennady I. Yurasov & Mark J. Warner Hydrographic and tracer measurements of the water mass structure and transport in the Okhotsk Sea in early spring Konstantin A. Rogachev & Andrey V. Verkhunov Circulation and water mass structure in the southern Okhotsk Sea, as observed in summer, 1994 Lynne D. Talley North Pacific Intermediate Water formation and the role of the Okhotsk Sea Anatoly S. Vasiliev & Fedor F. Khrapchenkov Seasonal variability of integral water circulation in the Okhotsk Sea B. Sea ice and its relation to circulation and climate V.P. Gavrilo, G.A. Lebedev & A.P. Polyakov Acoustic methods in sea ice dynamics studies Nina M. Pestereva & Larisa A. Starodubtseva The role of the Far-East atmospheric circulation in the formation of the ice cover in the Okhotsk Sea Yoshihiko Sekine Anomalous Oyashio intrusion and its teleconnection with Subarctic North Pacific circulation, sea ice of the Okhotsk Sea and air temperature of the northern Asian continent C. Waves and tides Vladimir A. Luchin Characteristics of the tidal motions in the Kuril Straits George V. Shevtchenko On seasonal variability of tidal constants in the northwestern part of the Okhotsk Sea D. Physical oceanography of the Japan Sea/East Sea Mikhail A. Danchenkov, Kuh Kim, Igor A. Goncharenko & Young-Gyu Kim A “chimney” of cold salt waters near Vladivostok Christopher N.K. Mooers & Hee Sook Kang Preliminary results from a numerical circulation model of the Japan Sea Lev P. Yakunin Influence of ice production on the deep water formation in the Japan Sea 2. Fisheries and Biology Sessions (pdf, 2.8 Mb) A. Communities of the Okhotsk Sea and adjacent waters: composition, structure and dynamics Lubov A. Balkonskaya Exogenous succession of the southwestern Sakhalin algal communities Tatyana A. Belan, Yelena V. Oleynik, Alexander V. Tkalin & Tat’yana S. Lishavskaya Characteristics of pelagic and benthic communities on the North Sakhalin Island shelf Lev N. Bocharov & Vladimir K. Ozyorin Fishery and oceanographic database of Okhotsk Sea Victor V. Lapko Interannual dynamics of the epipelagic ichthyocen structure in the Okhotsk Sea Valentina I. Lapshina Quantitative seasonal and year-to-year changes of phytoplankton in the Okhotsk Sea and off Kuril area of the Pacific Lyudmila N. Luchsheva Biological productivity in anomalous mercury conditions (northern part of Okhotsk Sea) Inna A. Nemirovskaya Origin of hydrocarbons in the ecosystems of coastal region of the Okhotsk Sea Tatyana A. Shatilina Elements of the Pacific South Kuril area ecosystem Vyacheslav P. Shuntov & Yelena P. Dulepova Biota of the Okhotsk Sea: Structure of communities, the interannual dynamics and current status B. Abundance, distribution, dynamics of the common fishes of the Okhotsk Sea Yuri P. Diakov Influence of some abiotic factors on spatial population dynamics of the West Kamchatka flounders (Pleuronectidae) Gordon A. McFarlane, Richard J. Beamish & Larisa M. Zverkova An examination of age estimates of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) from the Sea of Okhotsk using the burnt otolith method and implications for stock assessment and management Larisa P. Nikolenko Migration of Greenland turbot (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) in the Okhotsk Sea Galina M. Pushnikova Fisheries impact on the Sakhalin-Hokkaido herring population Vidar G. Wespestad Is pollock overfished? C. Salmon of the Okhotsk Sea: biology, abundance and stock identification Vladimir A. Belyaev, Alexander Yu. Zhigalin Epipelagic Far Eastern sardine of the Okhotsk Sea Yuri E. Bregman, Victor V. Pushnikov, Lyudmila G. Sedova & Vladimir Ph. Ivanov A preliminary report on stock status and productive capacity of horsehair crab Erimacrus isenbeckii (Brandt) in the South Kuril Strait Natalia T. Dolganova Mezoplankton distribution in the West Japan Sea Vladimir V. Efremov, Richard L. Wilmot, Christine M. Kondzela, Natalia V. Varnavskaya, Sharon L. Hawkins & Maria E. Malinina Application of pink and chum salmon genetic baseline to fishery management Vyacheslav N. Ivankov & Valentina V. Andreyeva Strategy for culture, breeding and numerous dynamics of Sakhalin salmon populations Alla M. Kovalevskaya, Natalia I. Savelyeva & Dmitry M. Polyakov Primary production in Sakhalin shelf waters Tatyana N. Krupnova Some reasons for resource reduction of Laminaria japonica (Primorye region) Lyudmila N. Luchsheva & Anatoliy I. Botsul Mercury in bottom sediments of the northeastern Okhotsk Sea Pavel A. Luk’yanov, Natalia I. Belogortseva, Alexander A. Bulgakov, Alexander A. Kurika & Olga D. Novikova Lectins and glycosidases from marine macro and micro-organisms of Japan and Okhotsk Seas Boris A. Malyarchuk, Olga A. Radchenko, Miroslava V. Derenko, Andrey G. Lapinski & Leonid L. Solovenchuk PCR-fingerprinting of mitochondrial genome of chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta Alexander A. Mikheev Chaos and relaxation in dynamics of the pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) returns for two regions Yuri A. Mitrofanov & Larisa N. Lesnikova Fish-culture of Pacific Salmons increases the number of heredity defects Larisa P. Nikolenko Abundance of young halibut along the West Kamchatka shelf in 1982-1992 Sergey A. Nizyaev Living conditions of golden king crab Lithodes aequispina in the Okhotsk Sea and near the Kuril Islands Ludmila A. Pozdnyakova & Alla V. Silina Settlements of Japanese scallop in Reid Pallada Bay (Sea of Japan) Galina M. Pushnikova Features of the Southwest Okhotsk Sea herring Vladimir I. Radchenko & Igor I. Glebov Present state of the Okhotsk herring stock and fisheries outlook Alla V. Silina & Ida I. Ovsyannikova Distribution of the barnacle Balanus rostratus eurostratus near the coasts of Primorye (Sea of Japan) Galina I. Victorovskaya Dependence of urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius reproduction on water temperature Anatoly F. Volkov, Alexander Y. Efimkin & Valery I. Chuchukalo Feeding habits of Pacific salmon in the Sea of Okhotsk and in the Pacific waters of Kuril Islands in summer 1993 Larisa M. Zverkova & Georgy A. Oktyabrsky Okhotsk Sea walleye pollock stock status Tatyana N. Zvyagintseva, Elena V. Sundukova, Natalia M. Shevchenko & Ludmila A. Elyakova Water soluble polysaccharides of some Far-Eastern seaweeds 3. Biodiversity Program (pdf, 0.2 Mb) A. Biodiversity of island ecosystems and seasides of the North Pacific Larissa A. Gayko Productivity of Japanese scallop Patinopecten yessoensis (IAY) culture in Posieta Bay (Sea of Japan) III APPENDICES 1. List of acronyms 2. List of participants (Document pdf contains 431 pages)

An evaluation of geographic and annual variation in morphometric characters and gill-raker counts of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, from the Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Samples of yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, collected from five areas of the Pacific Ocean (Mexico, Ecuador, Australia, Japan, and Hawaii) between January and May of 1988 and 1990 were examined for spatiotemporal variation in morphometric characters and gill-raker counts. 'Iwo-factor analysis of variance, with area and year treated as grouping factors, indicated a significant difference in the means of the total gill-raker counts among fish from different areas, but no significant difference between fish caught in different years. The morphometric data were adjusted by allometric formulae to remove size effects. The correct classification rates for the five groups, using discriminant function analysis, based on adjusted morphometric characters, were 77.60/0 for the samples from 1988 and 74.40/0 for those from 1990. These are 72.00/0 and 68.00/0 (Cohen's kappa statistic) better than would have occurred chance. The pattern of geographic variability, however, is unstable for these two years, thus requiring separate discriminant functions for each year. Although there is annual variability in the morphometric characters, these results demonstrate that the stocks examined are morphometrically distinguishable and that their phenetic relationships reflect their geographic origin. SPANISH: Se examinaron muestras de atún aleta amarilla, Thunnus albacares, tomadas de cinco áreas del Océano Pacífico (México, Ecuador, Australia, Japón, y Hawaii) entre enero y mayo de 1988 y 1990, para descubrir variaciones espaciotemporales en las características morfométricas y los conteos de branquiespinas. Un análisis de varianza de dos factores, con área y año como factores de agrupación, indicó una diferencia significativa en los promedios de los conteos de branquiespinas totales entre peces de distintas áreas, pero ninguna entre peces capturados en distintos años. Se ajustaron los datos morfométricos con fórmulas alométricas para eliminar los efectos de la talla del pez. En un análisis de función discriminante, las tasas de clasificación correcta de los cinco grupos, basadas en características morfométricas ajustadas, fueron 77.60/0 para las muestras de 1988 y 74.40/0 para aquellas de 1990. Estas cifras son 72.00/0 y 68.00/0 (estadístico de kappa de Cohen) mejores de lo que se hubiera obtenido al azar. Sin embargo, la variabilidad geográfica es inestable en estos dos años, requiriendo por lo tanto funciones discriminantes separadas para cada año. Aunque existe variabilidad anual en las características morfométricas, estos resultados demuestran que los stocks examinados son morfamétricamente distinguibles, y que su relación fenética refleja su origen geográfico. (PDF contains 31 pages.)

Season- and depth-dependent variability of a demersal fish assemblage in a large fjord estuary (Puget Sound, Washington)

Fjord estuaries are common along the northeast Pacific coastline, but little information is available on fish assemblage structure and its spatiotemporal variability. Here, we examined changes in diversity metrics, species biomasses, and biomass spectra (the distribution of biomass across body size classes) over three seasons (fall, winter, summer) and at multiple depths (20 to 160 m) in Puget Sound, Washington, a deep and highly urbanized fjord estuary on the U.S. west coast. Our results indicate that this fish assemblage is dominated by cartilaginous species (spotted ratfish [Hydrolagus colliei] and spiny dogfish [Squalus acanthias]) and therefore differs fundamentally from fish assemblages found in shallower estuaries in the northeast Pacific. Diversity was greatest in shallow waters (<40 m), where the assemblage was composed primarily of flatfishes and sculpins, and lowest in deep waters (>80 m) that are more common in Puget Sound and that are dominated by spotted ratf ish and seasonally (fall and summer) by spiny dogfish. Strong depth-dependent variation in the demersal fish assemblage may be a general feature of deep fjord estuaries and indicates pronounced spatial variability in the food web. Future comparisons with less impacted fjords may offer insight into whether cartilaginous species naturally dominate these systems or only do so under conditions related to human-caused ecosystem degradation. Information on species distributions is critical for marine spatial planning and for modeling energy flows in coastal food webs. The data presented here will aid these endeavors and highlight areas for future research in this important yet understudied system.

Ichthyoplankton community structure and comparative trophodynamics in an estuarine transition zone

Surveys were conducted to evaluate and compare assemblage structure and trophodynamics of ichthyoplankton, and their variability, in an estuarine transition zone. Environmental gradients in the saltfront region of the Patuxent River subestuary, Chesapeake Bay, were hypothesized to define spatiotemporal distributions and assemblages of ichthyoplankton. Larval fishes, zooplankton, and hydrographic data were collected during spring through early summer 2000 and 2001. Larvae of 28 fish species were collected and species richness was similar each year. Total larval abundance was highest in the oligohaline region down-estuary of the salt front in 2000, but highest at the salt front in 2001. Larvae of anadromous fishes were most abundant at or up-estuary of the salt front in both years. Two ichthyoplankton assemblages were distinguished: 1) riverine—characterized predominantly by anadromous species (Moronidae and Alosinae); and 2) estuarine—characterized predominantly by naked goby (Gobiosoma bosc) (Gobiidae). Temperature, dissolved oxygen, salinity-associated variables (e.g., salt-front location), and concentrations of larval prey, specifically the calanoid copepod Eurytemora affinis and the cladoceran Bosmina longirostris, were important indicators of larval fish abundance. In the tidal freshwater region up-estuary of the salt front, there was substantial diet overlap between congeneric striped bass (Morone saxatilis) and white perch (M. americana) larvae, and also larvae of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) (overlap= 0.71–0.93). Larval abundance, taxonomic diversity, and dietary overlap were highest within and up-estuary of the salt front, which serves to both structure the ichthyoplankton community and control trophic relationships in the estuarine transition zone.

Spatial and temporal distribution of North Atlantic right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) in Cape Cod Bay, and implications for management

Cape Cod Bay (Massachusetts) is the only known winter and early spring feeding area for concentrations of the endangered North Atlantic right whale (Eubalaena glacialis) population. During January–May, 1998–2002, 167 aerial surveys were conducted (66,466 km of total survey effort), providing a complete representation of the spatiotemporal distribution of right whales in the bay during winter and spring. A total of 1553 right whales were sighted; some of these sightings were multiple sightings of the same individuals. Right whale distribution and relative abundance patterns were quantified as sightings per unit of effort (SPUE) and partitioned into 103 23-km2 cells and 12 2-week periods. Significant interannual variations in mean SPUE and timing of SPUE maxima were likely due to physically forced changes in available food resources. The area of greatest SPUE expanded and contracted during the season but its center remained in the eastern bay. Most cells with SPUE>0 were inside the federal critical habitat (CH) and this finding gave evidence of the need for management measures within CH boundaries to reduce anthropogenic mortality from vessel strikes and entanglement. There was significant within-season SPUE variability: low in December−January, increasing to a maximum in late February−early April, and declining to zero in May; and these results provide support for management measures from 1 January

Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

A Positive trajectory for corals at Little Cayman Island

Coral reefs are damaged by natural disturbances and local and global anthropogenic stresses. As stresses intensify, so do debates about whether reefs will recover after significant damage. True headway in this debate requires documented temporal trajectories for coral assemblages subjected to various combinations of stresses; therefore, we report relevant changes in coral assemblages at Little Cayman Island. Between 1999 and 2012, spatiotemporal patterns in cover, densities of juveniles and size structure of assemblages were documented inside and outside marine protected areas using transects, quadrats and measurements of maximum diameters. Over five years, bleaching and disease caused live cover to decrease from 26% to 14%, with full recovery seven years later. Juvenile densities varied, reaching a maximum in 2010. Both patterns were consistent within and outside protected areas. In addition, dominant coral species persisted within and outside protected areas although their size frequency distributions varied temporally and spatially. The health of the coral assemblage and the similarity of responses across levels of protection suggested that negligible anthropogenic disturbance at the local scale was a key factor underlying the observed resilience.

Strandings as indicators of marine mammal biodiversity and human interactions off the coast of North Carolina

The adjacency of 2 marine biogeographic regions off Cape Hatteras, North Carolina (NC), and the proximity of the Gulf Stream result in a high biodiversity of species from northern and southern provinces and from coastal and pelagic habitats. We examined spatiotemporal patterns of marine mammal strandings and evidence of human interaction for these strandings along NC shorelines and evaluated whether the spatiotemporal patterns and species diversity of the stranded animals reflected published records of populations in NC waters. During the period of 1997–2008, 1847 stranded animals were documented from 1777 reported events. These animals represented 9 families and 34 species that ranged from tropical delphinids to pagophilic seals. This biodiversity is higher than levels observed in other regions. Most strandings were of coastal bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) (56%), harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) (14%), and harbor seals (Phoca vitulina) (4%). Overall, strandings of northern species peaked in spring. Bottlenose dolphin strandings peaked in spring and fall. Almost half of the strandings, including southern delphinids, occurred north of Cape Hatteras, on only 30% of NC’s coastline. Most stranded animals that were positive for human interaction showed evidence of having been entangled in fishing gear, particularly bottlenose dolphins, harbor porpoises, short-finned pilot whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus), harbor seals, and humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae). Spatiotemporal patterns of bottlenose dolphin strandings were similar to ocean gillnet fishing effort. Biodiversity of the animals stranded on the beaches reflected biodiversity in the waters off NC, albeit not always proportional to the relative abundance of species (e.g., Kogia species). Changes in the spatiotemporal patterns of strandings can serve as indicators of underlying changes due to anthropogenic or naturally occurring events in the source populations.

Historical knowledge of sharks: ancient science, earliest American encounters, and American science, fisheries, and utilization

In western civilization, the knowledge of the elasmobranch or selachian fishes (sharks and rays) begins with Aristotle (384–322 B.C.). Two of his extant works, the “Historia Animalium” and the “Generation of Animals,” both written about 330 B.C., demonstrate knowledge of elasmobranch fishes acquired by observation. Roman writers of works on natural history, such as Aelian and Pliny, who followed Aristotle, were compilers of available information. Their contribution was that they prevented the Greek knowledge from being lost, but they added few original observations. The fall of Rome, around 476 A.D., brought a period of economic regression and political chaos. These in turn brought intellectual thought to a standstill for nearly one thousand years, the period known as the Dark Ages. It would not be until the middle of the sixteenth century, well into the Renaissance, that knowledge of elasmobranchs would advance again. The works of Belon, Salviani, Rondelet, and Steno mark the beginnings of ichthyology, including the study of sharks and rays. The knowledge of sharks and rays increased slowly during and after the Renaissance, and the introduction of the Linnaean System of Nomenclature in 1735 marks the beginning of modern ichthyology. However, the first major work on sharks would not appear until the early nineteenth century. Knowledge acquired about sea animals usually follows their economic importance and exploitation, and this was also true with sharks. The first to learn about sharks in North America were the native fishermen who learned how, when, and where to catch them for food or for their oils. The early naturalists in America studied the land animals and plants; they had little interest in sharks. When faunistic works on fishes started to appear, naturalists just enumerated the species of sharks that they could discern. Throughout the U.S. colonial period, sharks were seldom utilized for food, although their liver oil or skins were often utilized. Throughout the nineteenth century, the Spiny Dogfish, Squalus acanthias, was the only shark species utilized in a large scale on both coasts. It was fished for its liver oil, which was used as a lubricant, and for lighting and tanning, and for its skin which was used as an abrasive. During the early part of the twentieth century, the Ocean Leather Company was started to process sea animals (primarily sharks) into leather, oil, fertilizer, fins, etc. The Ocean Leather Company enjoyed a monopoly on the shark leather industry for several decades. In 1937, the liver of the Soupfin Shark, Galeorhinus galeus, was found to be a rich source of vitamin A, and because the outbreak of World War II in 1938 interrupted the shipping of vitamin A from European sources, an intensive shark fishery soon developed along the U.S. West Coast. By 1939 the American shark leather fishery had transformed into the shark liver oil fishery of the early 1940’s, encompassing both coasts. By the late 1940’s, these fisheries were depleted because of overfishing and fishing in the nursery areas. Synthetic vitamin A appeared on the market in 1950, causing the fishery to be discontinued. During World War II, shark attacks on the survivors of sunken ships and downed aviators engendered the search for a shark repellent. This led to research aimed at understanding shark behavior and the sensory biology of sharks. From the late 1950’s to the 1980’s, funding from the Office of Naval Research was responsible for most of what was learned about the sensory biology of sharks.

Maori octopus (Octopus maorum) bycatch and southern rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) mortality in the South Australian lobster fishery

Octopuses are commonly taken as bycatch in many trap fisheries for spiny lobsters (Decapoda: Palinuridae) and can cause significant levels of within-trap lobster mortality. This article describes spatiotemporal patterns for Maori octopus (Octopus maorum) catch rates and rock lobster (Jasus edwardsii) mortality rates and examines factors that are associated with within-trap lobster mortality in the South Australian rock lobster fishery (SARLF). Since 1983, between 38,000 and 119,000 octopuses per annum have been taken in SARLF traps. Catch rates have fluctuated between 2.2 and 6.2 octopus/100 trap-lifts each day. There is no evidence to suggest that catch rates have declined or that this level of bycatch is unsustainable. Over the last five years, approximately 240,000 lobsters per annum have been killed in traps, representing ~4% of the total catch. Field studies show that over 98% of within-trap lobster mortality is attributable to octopus predation. Lobster mortality rates are positively correlated with the catch rates of octopus. The highest octopus catch rates and lobster mortality rates are recorded during summer and in the more productive southern zone of the fishery. In the southern zone, within-trap lobster mortality rates have increased in recent years, apparently in response to the increase in the number of lobsters in traps and the resultant increase in the probability of octopus encountering traps containing one or more lobsters. Lobster mortality rates are also positively correlated with soak-times in the southern zone fishery and with lobster size. Minimizing trap soak-times is one method currently available for reducing lobster mortality rates. More significant reductions in the rates of within-trap lobster mortality may require a change in the design of lobster traps.

Do fluctuations in the somatic growth rate of rock lobster (Jasus lalandii) encompass all size classes? A re-assessment of juvenile growth

Catch rates in the South African rock lobster (Jasus lalandii) fishery declined after 1989 in response to reduced adult somatic growth rates and a consequent reduction in recruitment to the fishable population. Although spatial and temporal trends in adult growth are well described, little is known about how juvenile growth rates have been affected. In our study, growth rates of juvenile rock lobster on Cape Town harbor wall were compared with those recorded at the same site more than 25 years prior to our study, and with those on a nearby natural nursery reef. We found that indices of somatic growth measured during 1996–97 at the harbor wall had declined significantly since 1971–72. Furthermore, growth was slower among juvenile J. lalandii at the harbor wall than those at the natural nursery reef. These results suggest that growth rates of juvenile and adult J. lalandii exhibit similar types of spatiotemporal patterns. Thus, the recent coastwide decline in adult somatic growth rates might also encompass smaller size classes.

Dynamical structure in paleoclimate data

Deterministic chaos in dynamical systems offers a new paradigm for understanding irregular fluctuations. The theory of chaotic dynamical systems includes methods that can test whether any given set of time series data, such as paleoclimate proxy data, are consistent with a deterministic interpretation. Paleoclimate data with annual resolution and absolute dating provide multiple channels of concurrent time series; these multiple time series can be treated as potential phase space coordinates to test whether interannual climate variability is deterministic. Dynamical structure tests which take advantage of such multichannel data are proposed and illustrated by application to a simple synthetic model of chaos, and to two paleoclimate proxy data series.