Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.

Skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer

We have performed GCM experiments using the National Meteorological Center's Medium Range Forecasting (MRF) model to study the skill of monthly forecasts during the Northern Hemisphere summer and to test the impact of sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) on such forecasts. The daily skill varies a great deal. The skillful daily forecasts last from 5 to 8 days for the Southern Hemisphere and from 6 to 8 days for the Northern Hemisphere. SSTAs have positive impact on the forecasts in the tropics and surface variables, but the impact of tropical SSTAs on the extra-tropical circulation is, in general, positive but small. Overall, the initial conditions play a more important role than SSTAs in determining the forecast skill.

Soviet Illegal Whaling: The Devil and the Details

In 1948, the U.S.S.R. began a global campaign of illegal whaling that lasted for three decades and, together with the poorly managed “legal” whaling of other nations, seriously depleted whale populations. Although the general story of this whaling has been told and the catch record largely corrected for the Southern Hemisphere, major gaps remain in the North Pacific. Furthermore, little attention has been paid to the details of this system or its economic context. Using interviews with former Soviet whalers and biologists as well as previously unavailable reports and other material in Russian, our objective is to describe how the Soviet whaling industry was structured and how it worked, from the largest scale of state industrial planning down to the daily details of the ways in which whales were caught and processed, and how data sent to the Bureau of International Whaling Statistics were falsified. Soviet whaling began with the factory ship Aleut in 1933, but by 1963 the industry had a truly global reach, with seven factory fleets (some very large). Catches were driven by a state planning system that set annual production targets. The system gave bonuses and honors only when these were met or exceeded, and it frequently increased the following year’s targets to match the previous year’s production; scientific estimates of the sustainability of the resource were largely ignored. Inevitably, this system led to whale populations being rapidly reduced. Furthermore, productivity was measured in gross output (weights of whales caught), regardless of whether carcasses were sound or rotten, or whether much of the animal was unutilized. Whaling fleets employed numerous people, including women (in one case as the captain of a catcher boat). Because of relatively high salaries and the potential for bonuses, positions in the whaling industry were much sought-after. Catching and processing of whales was highly mechanized and became increasingly efficient as the industry gained more experience. In a single day, the largest factory ships could process up to 200 small sperm whales, Physeter macrocephalus; 100 humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae; or 30–35 pygmy blue whales, Balaenoptera musculus brevicauda. However, processing of many animals involved nothing more than stripping the carcass of blubber and then discarding the rest. Until 1952, the main product was whale oil; only later was baleen whale meat regularly utilized. Falsified data on catches were routinely submitted to the Bureau of International Whaling Statistics, but the true catch and biological data were preserved for research and administrative purposes. National inspectors were present at most times, but, with occasional exceptions, they worked primarily to assist fulfillment of plan targets and routinely ignored the illegal nature of many catches. In all, during 40 years of whaling in the Antarctic, the U.S.S.R. reported 185,778 whales taken but at least 338,336 were actually killed. Data for the North Pacific are currently incomplete, but from provisional data we estimate that at least 30,000 whales were killed illegally in this ocean. Overall, we judge that, worldwide, the U.S.S.R. killed approximately 180,000 whales illegally and caused a number of population crashes. Finally, we note that Soviet illegal catches continued after 1972 despite the presence of international observers on factory fleets.

Genetic evidence of two sibling species within the Contracoecum ogmorhini Johnson & Mawson 1941 complex (Nematoda; Anisakidae) from otariid seals in boreal and austral regions

Genetic variation of Contracaecum ogmorhini (sensu lato) populations from different otariid seals of the northern and southern hemisphere was studied on the basis of 18 enzyme loci as well as preliminary sequence analysis of the mitochondrial cyt b gene (260 bp). Samples were collected from Zalophus californianus in the boreal region and from Arctocephalus pusillus pusillus, A. pusillus doriferus and A. australis from the austral region. Marked genetic heterogeneity was found between C. ogmorhini (sensu lato) samples from the boreal and austral region, respectively. Two loci (Mdh-2 and NADHdh) showed fixed differences and a further three loci (Iddh, Mdh-1 and 6Pgdh) were highly differentiated between boreal and austral samples. Their average genetic distance was DNei = 0.36 at isozyme level. At mitochondrial DNA level, an average proportion of nucleotide substitution of 3.7% was observed. These findings support the existence of two distinct sibling species, for which the names C. ogmorhini (sensu stricto) and C. margolisi n. sp., respectively, for the austral and boreal taxon, are proposed. A description for C. margolisi n. sp. is provided. No diagnostic morphological characters have so far been detected; on the other hand, two enzyme loci, Mdh-2 and NADHdh, fully diagnostic between the two species, can be used for the routine identification of males, females and larval stages. Mirounga leonina was found to host C. ogmorhini (s.s.) inmixed infections with C. osculatum (s.l.) (of which C. ogmorhini (s.l.) was in the past considered to be a synonym) and C. miroungae; no hybrid genotypes were found,confirming the reproductive isolation of these three anisakid species. The hosts and geographical range so far recorded for C. margolisi n. sp. and C. ogmorhini (s.s.) are given.

Southern California's megaflood event of ca. 1605 AD linked to large-scale atmospheric forcing

A distinct, 1- to 2-cm-thick flood deposit found in Santa Barbara Basin with a varve-date of 1605 AD ± 5 years testifies to an intensity of precipitation that remains unmatched for later periods when historical or instrumental records can be compared against the varve record. The 1605 AD ± 5 event correlates well with Enzel's (1992) finding of a Silver Lake playa perennial lake at the terminus of the Mojave River (carbon-14-dated 1560 AD ± 90 years), in relative proximity to the rainfall catchment area draining into Santa Barbara Basin. According to Enzel, such a persistent flooding of the Silver Lake playa occurred only once during the last 3,500 years and required a sequence of floods, each comparable in magnitude to the largest floods in the modern record. To gain confidence in dating of the 1605 AD ± 5 event, we compare Southern California's sedimentary evidence against historical reports and multi-proxy time-series that indicate unusual climatic events or are sensitive to changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. The emerging pattern supports previous suggestions that the first decade of the 17th century was marked by a rapid cooling of the Northern Hemisphere, with some indications for global coverage. A burst of volcanism and the occurrence of El Nino seem to have contributed to the severity of the events. The synopsis of the 1605 AD ± 5 years flood deposit in Santa Barbara Basin, the substantial freshwater body at Silver Lake playa, and much additional paleoclimatic, global evidence testifies for an equatorward shift of global wind patterns as the world experienced an interval of rapid, intense, and widespread cooling.

The valuation of riparian fisheries in Southern and Eastern Africa

This paper reviews the published and gray literature concerning economic valuations of river fisheries in eastern and southern Africa, extracting the best available information on their direct economic values and on the impacts of changes in water management on this value. It then assesses the methods used and makes recommendations regarding approaches to be used in future. The review concentrates on rivers with their associated floodplains and major deltas. The values and issues associated with estuaries and lakes are not considered.

Biological surveys of five southern artificial reefs: Oceanside #1, Oceanside #2, Carlsbad, Pacific Beach, and Mission Bay

(Document pdf contains 19 pages)

Seasonal Biomass and Carbohydrate Allocation Patterns in Southern Minnesota Curlyleaf Pondweed Populations

Four southern Minnesota populations of curlyleaf pondweed ( Potamogeton crispus L.) were sampled monthly from January 2001 to November 2002 to determine seasonal phenological, biomass, and carbohydrate allocation patterns. Low periods of carbohydrate storage in the seasonal phenological cycle indicate potentially vulnerable periods in the plant’s life cycle and may be the ideal time to initiate management and control efforts.

Seepage beneath Hoover Dike southern shore of Lake Okeechobee, Florida

Future water needs in southern Florida call for an increase in the storage capacity of Lake Okeechobee. Seepage from the lake is expected to increase as a result of raising the lake level. Data concerning the occurrence and amounts of seepage are needed for the design and operation of flood-control works which will remove excess water from the rich agricultural lands along the southern shore. Intensive studies at five sites along the southern shore of Lake Okeechobee between the Caloosahatchee Canal and the St. Lucie Canal indicate that seepage occurs chiefly through beds of shell and limestone which underlie the Hoover Dike at shallow depth. Seepage rates at the five sites range from about 0.1 to 0.9 cfs per mile per foot of head across the dike. Seepage beneath the 50-mile length of dike should increase from about 22 to 50 cfs if the average stage of the lake is raised from 14 to 16.5 feet. Seepage is greatest between Moore Haven and Clewiston, where deep borrows have been excavated on the landward and lakeward sides of the dike. Most of the seepage from the lake can be controlled by properly spaced toe ditches which would intercept the seepage and return it to the lake. (PDF contains 108 pages.)

New fish populations as evidence of climate chage in former dry areas of the Pampa Region ( Southern South America).

Water bodies located at 34º 58' S, 62º 58' W formed after 1980 by 30 % increasing rainfall during the last half century, were colonized by ten fish species which are a subset of the commonest species living in the pampasic lagunas. These new populations imply a displacement of the West of Pampasian fishes to areas of the western basins previously lacking fish.

Assessment of Atlantic Red Drum for 1999: Northern and southern regions

An assessment of the status of the Atlantic stock of red drum is conducted using recreational and commercial data from 1986 through 1998. This assessment updates data and analyses from the 1989, 1991, 1992 and 1995 stock assessments on Atlantic coast red drum (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996). Since 1981, coastwide recreational catches ranged between 762,300 pounds in 1980 and 2,623,900 pounds in 1984, while commercial landings ranged between 60,900 pounds in 1997 and 422,500 pounds in 1984. In weight of fish caught, Atlantic red drum constitute predominantly a recreational fishery (ranging between 85 and 95% during the 1990s). Commercially, red drum continue to be harvested as part of mixed species fisheries. Using available length-frequency distributions and age-length keys, recreational and commercial catches are converted to catch in numbers at age. Separable and tuned virtual population analyses are conducted on the catch in numbers at age to obtain estimates of fishing mortality rates and population size (including recruitment to age 1). In tum, these estimates of fishing mortality rates combined with estimates of growth (length and weight), sex ratios, sexual maturity and fecundity are used to estimate yield per recruit, escapement to age 4, and static (or equilibrium) spawning potential ratio (static SPR, based on both female biomass and egg production). Three virtual analysis approaches (separable, spreadsheet, and FADAPT) were applied to catch matrices for two time periods (early: 1986-1991, and late: 1992-1998) and two regions (Northern: North Carolina and north, and Southern: South Carolina through east coast of Florida). Additional catch matrices were developed based on different treatments for the catch-and-release recreationally-caught red drum (B2-type). These approaches included assuming 0% mortality (BASEO) versus 10% mortality for B2 fish. For the 10% mortality on B2 fish, sizes were assumed the same as caught fish (BASEl), or positive difference in size distribution between the early period and the later period (DELTA), or intermediate (PROP). Hence, a total of 8 catch matrices were developed (2 regions, and 4 B2 assumptions for 1986-1998) to which the three VPA approaches were applied. The question of when offshore emigration or reduced availability begins (during or after age 3) continues to be a source of bias that tends to result in overestimates of fishing mortality. Additionally, the continued assumption (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996) of no fishing mortality on adults (ages 6 and older), causes a bias that results in underestimates of fishing mortality for adult ages (0 versus some positive value). Because of emigration and the effect of the slot limit for the later period, a range in relative exploitations of age 3 to age 2 red drum was considered. Tuning indices were developed from the MRFSS, and state indices for use in the spreadsheet and FADAPT VPAs. The SAFMC Red Drum Assessment Group (Appendix A) favored the FADAPT approach with catch matrix based on DELTA and a selectivity for age 3 relative to age 2 of 0.70 for the northern region and 0.87 for the southern region. In the northern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 1.3% for the period 1987-1991 to approximately 18% (15% and 20%) for the period 1992-1998. For the southern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 0.5% for the period 1988-1991 to approximately 15% for the period 1992-1998. Population models used in this assessment (specifically yield per recruit and static spawning potential ratio) are based on equilibrium assumptions: because no direct estimates are available as to the current status of the adult stock, model results imply potential longer term, equilibrium effects. Because current status of the adult stock is unknown, a specific rebuilding schedule cannot be determined. However, the duration of a rebuilding schedule should reflect, in part, a measure of the generation time of the fish species under consideration. For a long-lived, but relatively early spawning, species as red drum, mean generation time would be on the order of 15 to 20 years based on age-specific egg production. Maximum age is 50 to 60 years for the northern region, and about 40 years for the southern region. The ASMFC Red Drum Board's first phase recovery goal of increasing %SPR to at least 10% appears to have been met. (PDF contains 79 pages)

Bag and size limit analyses for red drum in Northern and Southern Regions of the U.S. Atlantic

Assessments of the Atlantic red drum for the northern (North Carolina and north) and southern (South Carolina through east coast of Florida) regions along the U. S. Atlantic coast were recently completed. The joint Red Drum Technical Committee (SAFMC/ASMFC) selected the most appropriate catch matrix (incorporating an assumption on size of recreationally-released fish), selectivity of age 3 relative to age 2, and virtual population analysis (FADAPT). Given gear- and age-specific estimates of fishing mortality (F) for the 1992-1998 period, analyses were made of potential gains in escapement through age 4 and static spawning potential ratio (SPR) from further reductions in fishing mortality due to changes in slot and bag limits. Savings from bag limits were calculated given a particular slot size for the recreational fishery, with no savings for the commercial fisheries in the northern region due to their being managed primarily through a quota. Relative changes in catch-at-age estimates were used to adjust age-specific F and hence calculated escapement through age 4 and static SPR. Adjustment was made with the recreational savings to account for release mortality (10%, as in the stock assessment). Alternate runs for the northern region commercial fishery considered 25% release mortality for lengths outside the slot (instead of 0% for the base run), and 0% vs. 10% gain or loss across legal sizes in F. These results are summarized for ranges of bag limits with increasing minimum size limit (for fixed maximum size), and with decreasing maximum size limit (for fixed minimum size limit). For the southern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip would be required to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR if the current slot limit were not changed. However, for the northern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip appears to be insufficient to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR while maintaining the current slot limit. (PDF contains 41 pages)

Sediment Quality in Puget Sound Year 3 - Southern Puget Sound

As a component of a three-year cooperative effort of the Washington State Department of Ecology and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, surficial sediment samples from 100 locations in southern Puget Sound were collected in 1999 to determine their relative quality based on measures of toxicity, chemical contamination, and benthic infaunal assemblage structure. The survey encompassed an area of approximately 858 km2, ranging from East and Colvos Passages south to Oakland Bay, and including Hood Canal. Toxic responses were most severe in some of the industrialized waterways of Tacoma’s Commencement Bay. Other industrialized harbors in which sediments induced toxic responses on smaller scales included the Port of Olympia, Oakland Bay at Shelton, Gig Harbor, Port Ludlow, and Port Gamble. Based on the methods selected for this survey, the spatial extent of toxicity for the southern Puget Sound survey area was 0% of the total survey area for amphipod survival, 5.7% for urchin fertilization, 0.2% for microbial bioluminescence, and 5- 38% with the cytochrome P450 HRGS assay. Measurements of trace metals, PAHs, PCBs, chlorinated pesticides, other organic chemicals, and other characteristics of the sediments, indicated that 20 of the 100 samples collected had one or more chemical concentrations that exceeded applicable, effects-based sediment guidelines and/or Washington State standards. Chemical contamination was highest in eight samples collected in or near the industrialized waterways of Commencement Bay. Samples from the Thea Foss and Middle Waterways were primarily contaminated with a mixture of PAHs and trace metals, whereas those from Hylebos Waterway were contaminated with chlorinated organic hydrocarbons. The remaining 12 samples with elevated chemical concentrations primarily had high levels of other chemicals, including bis(2-ethylhexyl) phthalate, benzoic acid, benzyl alcohol, and phenol. The characteristics of benthic infaunal assemblages in south Puget Sound differed considerably among locations and habitat types throughout the study area. In general, many of the small embayments and inlets throughout the study area had infaunal assemblages with relatively low total abundance, taxa richness, evenness, and dominance values, although total abundance values were very high in some cases, typically due to high abundance of one organism such as the polychaete Aphelochaeta sp. N1. The majority of the samples collected from passages, outer embayments, and larger bodies of water tended to have infaunal assemblages with higher total abundance, taxa richness, evenness, and dominance values. Two samples collected in the Port of Olympia near a superfund cleanup site had no living organisms in them. A weight-of-evidence approach used to simultaneously examine all three “sediment quality triad” parameters, identified 11 stations (representing 4.4 km2, 0.5% of the total study area) with sediment toxicity, chemical contamination, and altered benthos (i.e., degraded sediment quality), 36 stations (493.5 km2, 57.5% total study area) with no toxicity or chemical contamination (i.e., high sediment quality), 35 stations (274.1 km2, 32.0% total study area) with one impaired sediment triad parameter (i.e., intermediate/high sediment quality), and 18 stations (85.7km2, 10.0% total study area) with two impaired sediment parameters (i.e., intermediate/degraded quality sediments). Generally, upon comparison, the number of stations with degraded sediments based upon the sediment quality triad of data was slightly greater in the central Puget Sound than in the northern and southern Puget Sound study areas, with the percent of the total study area degraded in each region decreasing from central to north to south (2.8, 1.3 and 0.5%, respectively). Overall, the sediments collected in Puget Sound during the combined 1997-1999 surveys were among the least contaminated relative to other marine bays and estuaries studied by NOAA using equivalent methods. (PDF contains 351 pages)

Biodiversity study of Southern Biscayne Bay and Card Sound 1968-1973

A multi-disciplinary investigation was conducted in southern Biscayne Bay and Card Sound from 1968 to 1973. The purpose of the investigation was to conduct an integrated study of the ecology of southern Biscayne Bay with special emphasis on the effects of the heated effluent from the Turkey Point fossil fuel power plant, and to predict the impact of additional effluent from the planned conversion of the plant to nuclear fuel. The results of this investigation have been discussed in numerous publications. This report contains the unpublished biology data that resulted from the investigation. (PDF contains 44 pages)