Proceedings of the PICES/CoML/IPRC Workshop on Impact of Climate Variability on Observation and Prediction of Ecosystem and Biodiversity Changes in the North Pacific

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.09 Mb] Section I - Presentations and Discussions at Plenary Sessions Introduction and Overview of Workshop Objectives [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Plenary Session Presentations [pdf, 2.23 Mb] Reports of the Breakout Group Discussions [pdf, 0.43 Mb] Closing Plenary Discussion and Recommendations [pdf, 0.11 Mb] Section II - Extended Abstracts of Individual Presentations at Breakout Group Sessions Breakout Group 1: Physical/Chemical Oceanography and Climate [pdf, 6.14 Mb] Breakout Group 2: Phytoplankton, Zooplankton, Micronekton and Benthos [pdf, 28.14 Mb] Breakout Group 3: Fish, Squid, Crabs and Shrimps [pdf, 4.30 Mb] Breakout Group 4: Highly Migratory Fishes, Seabirds and Marine Mammals [pdf, 6.27 Mb] Appendix 1. Workshop agenda [pdf, 0.15 Mb] Appendix 2. List of participants [pdf, 0.13 Mb] (Document pdf contains 216 pages)

The classification and prediction of macroinvertebrate communities in British rivers

This article describes the progress of the River Communities Project which commenced in 1977. This project aimed to develop a sensitive and practical system for river site classification using macroinvertebrates as an objective means of appraising the status of British rivers. The relationship between physical and chemical features of sites and their biological communities were examined. Sampling was undertaken on 41 British rivers. Ordination techniques were used to analyze data and the sites were classified into 16 groups using multiple discrimination analysis. The potential for using the environmental data to predict to which group a site belonged and the fauna likely to be present was investigated.

A low-level geographic information system for coastal zone management with applications to Brunei Darussalam: Part III:: simulation and tracking oil spills

B:RUN is a low-level GIS software designed to help formulate options for the management of the coastal zone of Brunei Darussalam. This contribution presents the oil spill simulation module of B:RUN. This simple module, based largely on wind and sea surface current vector parameters, may be helpful in formulating relevant oil spill contingency plans. It can be easily adapted to other areas, as can the B:RUN software itself.

Simulation and diagnosis of large-scale atmospheric moisture and surface hydrology over North America

We describe a preliminary investigation into large-scale atmospheric and surface moisture variations over North America. We compare large-scale hydrologic budgets in the Los Alamos general circulation model (GCM) to observed precipitation and vertically integrated atmospheric moisture fluxes derived from the National Meteorological Center's operational analyses. THe GCM faithfully simulates the integrated flux divergence and P-E differences. However, the integrated moisture content is too low, and precipitation and evaporation are too high. The model produces summertime soil moisture dryness, which supports previous studies showing increased droughts under warmer conditions.

Mechanisms of upper-ocean thermal variability in a 1970-1988 simulation and observations

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Variations in temperature that occurred in the North Pacific thermocline (250 to 400 meters) during the 1970s and 1980s are described in both a numerical simulation and XBT observations.

Investigation and prediction of sea level variations in the northern coasts of Persian Gulf using artificial neural network

Sea- level variations have a significant impact on coastal areas. Prediction of sea level variations expected from the pre most critical information needs associated with the sea environment. For this, various methods exist. In this study, on the northern coast of the Persian Gulf have been studied relation to the effectiveness of parameters such as pressure, temperature and wind speed on sea leve and associated with global parameters such as the North Atlantic Oscillation index and NAO index and present statistic models for prediction of sea level. In the next step by using artificial neural network predict sea level for first in this region. Then compared results of the models. Prediction using statistical models estimated in terms correlation coefficient R = 0.84 and root mean square error (RMS) 21.9 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.85 and root mean square error (RMS) 48.4 cm for Rajai station, While neural network used to have 4 layers and each middle layer six neurons is best for prediction and produces the results reliably in terms of correlation coefficient with R = 0.90126 and the root mean square error (RMS) 13.7 cm for the Bushehr station, and R = 0.93916 and the root mean square error (RMS) 22.6 cm for Rajai station. Therefore, the proposed methodology could be successfully used in the study area.

PICES Science: the first ten years and a look to the future

Introduction [pdf, 0.17 MB] Warren S. Wooster [pdf, 0.12 MB] PICES - the first decade, and beyond Paul H. LeBlond [pdf, 0.03 MB] The Physical Oceanography and Climate Committee: The first decade D.E. Harrison and Neville Smith [pdf, 0.04 MB] Ocean observing systems and prediction - the next ten years Tsutomu Ikeda and Patricia A. Wheeler [pdf, 0.85 MB] Ocean impacts from the bottom of the food web to the top: Biological Oceanography Committee (BIO) retrospective Timothy R. Parsons [pdf, 0.2 MB] Future needs for biological oceanographic studies in the Pacific Ocean Douglas E. Hay, Richard J. Beamish, George W. Boehlert, Vladimir I. Radchenko, Qi-Sheng Tang, Tokio Wada, Daniel W. Ware and Chang-Ik Zhang [pdf, 0.2 MB] Ten years FIS in PICES: An introspective, retrospective, critical and constructive review of fishery science in PICES Richard F. Addison, John E. Stein and Alexander V. Tkalin [pdf, 0.12 MB] Marine Environmental Committee in review Robie W. Macdonald, Brian Morton, Richard F. Addison and Sophia C. Johannessen [pdf, 1.89 MB] Marine environmental contaminant issues in the North Pacific: What are the dangers and how do we identify them? R. Ian Perry, Anne B. Hollowed and Takashige Sugimoto [pdf, 0.36 MB] The PICES Climate Change and Carrying Capacity Program: Why, how, and what next? List of acronyms [pdf, 0.07 MB] (Document contains 108 pages)