Surface temperature and precipitation variations in the western U.S. and their relation to large scale circulation indices [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An analysis of the principal components of surface temperature and precipitation in the western U.S. is presented. Data consist of monthly mean temperature and total precipitation for 66 climate divisions west of the Continental Divide, for the years 1931-1984. The analysis is repeated for three separate combinations of months - the water year (Oct - Sept), the cool season (Oct - Mar) and the warm season (Apr - Sept). Inspection of monthly precipitation climatology indicates that selection of these combinations of months results in very few awkward splittings of the natural precipitation seasons found in the West.

Uncovering North American temperature and precipitation patterns associated with the Southern Oscillation

The extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation (SO) have been linked to fairly persistent classes of circulation anomalies over the North Pacific and parts of North America. It has been more difficult to uncover correspondingly consistent patterns of surface temperature and precipitation over much of the continent. The few regions that appear to have consistent SO-related patterns of temperature and precipitation anomalies are identified and discussed. Also discussed are regions that appear to have strong SO-related surface anomalies whose sign varies from episode to episode.

ENSO and precipitation variability over Mexico during the last 90 years

Latin America has been shown to be susceptible to climatic anomalies during El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events (eg, Aceituno 1988; Ropelewshi and Halpert 1987; Kiladis and Diaz 1989). While these studies have emphasized ENSO-related rainfall and temperature anomalies over Central and South America, less work has been done on the climatic effects of ENSO over the Mexican region. In this study we are investigating interannual and intraseasonal fluctuation in temperature and precipitation over the southwestern United States and Mexico since the turn of the century. We are particularly interested in the effects of ENSO on the interannual variability over this region. This report focuses on the association between ENSO and interannual variability of precipitation over Mexico.

A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

The influence of seasonal precipitation and temperature variations on runoff in California and southwestern Oregon

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): There is considerable seasonal-to-interannual variability in the runoff of major watersheds in the Sierra Nevada, Coastal, and Cascade ranges of California and southwestern Oregon. This variability is reflected in both the amount and timing of runoff. This study examines that variability using long historical streamflow records and seasonal mean temperature and precipitation. ... Precipitation is the only significant predictor for both amount and timing of runoff in the low elevation basins. As elevation increases, the models rely more and more on temperature to explain amount and timing of runoff.

Semiempirical down-scaling of GCM output to the local scale for temperature, precipitation, and runoff

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An empirically derived multiple linear regression model is used to relate a local-scale dependent variable (either temperature, precipitation, or surface runoff) measured at individual gauging stations to six large-scale independent variables (temperature, precipitation, surface runoff, height to the 500-mbar pressure surface, and the zonal and meridional gradient across this surface). ...The area investigated is the western United States. ... The calibration data set is from 1948 through 1988 and includes data from 268 joint temperature and precipitation stations, 152 streamflow stations (which are converted to runoff data), and 24 gridded 500-mbar pressure height nodes.

Long-term response of Torrey pine to coastal climate: precipitation, temperature, and fog

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Torrey pine (Pinus torreyana Parry ex Carr.) has one of the most limited geographical ranges and population size in the Pinus genus; it is present only on Santa Rosa Island and on the coast between San Diego and Del Mar, where our research was conducted. A 168-year chronology (1827-1994) was developed using 28 increment cores extracted from 15 living and 2 dead stranding trees at Torrey Pines State Reserve, San Diego, California. ... The spatial correlation with western North America winter and spring precipitation, as well as with published tree-ring chronologies, indicates a connection with the American Southwest. Global correlation maps with winter sea level pressure and sea surface temperature are consistent with the hypothesis that San Diego precipitation is affected by a southerly displaced North Pacific storm track and by warmer water farther south, both leading to higher transport of lower latitude moisture.

The characteristics of distribution and change of the seawater temperature and salinity of Cai river estuary and Northern Part of Nha Trang bay in the dry and rainy season

In this paper, some results of analyzing the hydrographic characteristics of the seawater temperature and salinity are presented. The received results showed that: in dry season, the influence of the Cai river water has is limited in Cai river estuary with the approximate transferable distance from the river mouth to the open sea of about 1 km. The isohaline 32%o could be defined as the separate boundary of the Cai river water; In rainy season, due to the river water discharges are high, the influence of Cai river water could be transferred to the open sea and island areas. The immerge of the Cai river water in the open sea areas in rainy season has changed the vertical structure of salinity and temperature in the northern part of Nhatrang bay. In both seasons, the Cai river water have influenced in the surface water layers 0 - 2m and the water layers deeper than 2m are influenced by the sea waters with the salinity of higher than 32%o.

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Report of the workshop on process monitoring and significant change. Bangkok, Thailand 26-28 June 2002

The STREAM Initiative is a process rather than a project, and its focus is on learning and building on learning, not the achievement of pre-determined objectives. An overarching goal of STREAM is to facilitate changes that support poor people who manage aquatic resources. A key objective of STREAM is policy change, which in itself is complex and difficult to monitor. Two further layers of complexity relate to the regional scope of the Initiative and the collaborative involvement of stakeholders, all of which need to be accountable for their work. The objectives of this workshop are consistent with the aims of the STREAM Initiative and can be summerized as follows: 1- Familiarizing everyone in the regional STREAM Initiative with work being done in process monitoring and significant change. 2- Discussion and development of a practical information system that enables (i) the monitoring of development processes and significant changes occurring within the STREAM Initiative, and (ii) learning to inform STREAM implementation and other stakeholders. (PDF has 59 pages.)

The Effects of Salinity, Temperature, and Food on the Growth and Reproductive Output of Polydora nuchalis Woodick, 1953

Polydora nuchalis Woodwick, 1953 (Polychaeta: Spionidae) is a protandric hermaphrodite commonly inhabiting intertidal mud flats in southern California. The species exhibits lecithotrophic larval development and adelphophagia. Reproduction of P. nuchalis was monitored for a year at four sites: Catalina Harbor, San Gabriel River, Huntington Harbour, and Malibu Lagoon. Females deposited from 11 to 31 egg capsules in their tubes, with up to 230 eggs per capsule. An average of 3% of the eggs developed into larvae: the remaining were nurse eggs serving as food for the developing larvae. Reproductive output was quantified by determining the number and size of larvae and nurse eggs for individual capsules. Significant differences among the four populations were found for all the quantified variables. In addition, two size classes of nurse eggs were found to exist in capsules from all of the sites. Egg capsules were found throughout the year at San Gabriel River, but none were found during the winter months at the remaining three sites. Size/frequency data for juveniles and adults of the Catalina Harbor population indicate an annual cycle of recruitment. The laboratory experiment consisted of a 3 x 3 x 2 £actor1al design with replication testing the effects of temperature, salinity, and food supply on growth and reproduction of P. nuchalis. Increasing temperature resulted in significantly increased survivorship, growth rates, and percentage reproduction. It also produced a significant decrease in the size of the nurse eggs and the volume of food per larva. The number of egg capsules was maximum at the intermediate temperature. Increasing the salinity resulted in significant increases in survivorship and Class I nurse egg size. Increaaing food availability produced a significant increase in the percentage of worms reproducing. The interactive effect of salinity and £ood level produced significant changes in the number of larvae per capsule and the number of nurse eggs per capsule. However, the number of nurse eggs per larva did not differ significantly among the experimental treatment groups. (PDF contains 129 pages)

Impacts of Climate and Climate Change on the Key Species in the Fisheries in the North Pacific

(PDF contains 246 pages)

Variability of Temperature and Salinity in the Middle Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine

Monitoring of the waters of the Middle Atlantic Bight and Gulf of Maine has been conducted by the MARMAP Ships of Opportunity Program since the early 1970's. Presented in this atlas are portrayals of the temporal and spatial patterns of surface and bottom temperature and surface salinity for these areas during the period 1978-1990. These patterns are shown in the form of time-space diagrams for single-year and multiyear (base period) time frames. Each base period figure shows thirteen-year (1978-1990) mean conditions, sample variance in the form of standard deviations of the measured values, and data locations. Each single-year figure displays annual conditions, sampling locations, and departures of annual conditions from the thirteen-year means, expressed as algebraic anomalies and standardized anomalies. (PDF file contains 112 pages.)

Sea surface temperature and the distribution and apparent abundance of skipjack (Katsuwonus pelamis) in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, 1951-1968

ENGLISH: Isograms of sea surface temperature (OC) have been produced for 1949-1968 for the areas of the eastern Pacific Ocean in which the majority of the skipjack catch is taken. These are in the immediate coastal zone, California (35° N) to Chile (20 0 S), and the Revillagigedo and Galapagos Islands groups. Skipjack occurrence and apparent abundance (as CSDF, i.e., catch per standard days fishing, standardized in purse-seiner units) for 1951-1968 were then superimposed on the surface temperature isograms. Results show that skipjack occur at surface temperatures> 17° C but with the majority between 20°-30° C. Apparent abundance at CSDF > 1 ton/day is normally Iimited to 20°29° C water, except in two areas in certain years; from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to Cape Mala rates of 1-9 tons/day are relatively common at 29°-30° C, and off Chimbote (Peru) occasionally >9 tons/day are recorded down to 18° C. As expected there were no apparent relationships between annual thermal conditions in the coastal zone and skipjack abundance (total catch or indices of abundance) in the same or 2 subsequent years. An Appendix to the report determines the quantitative relationships between surface temperature and skipjack abundance in relatively small areal strata in Baja California waters in 1955 and 1958. Relationships generally appeared significant and opposite in these years when temperatures were respectively anomalously cold and warm. SPANISH: Se han producido isogramas de la temperatura de la superficie del mar (OC) para 1949-1968 correspondientes a las áreas del Océano Pacífico oriental en donde se obtiene la mayor parte de la captura de barrilete. Estas se encuentran ubicadas en la zona costanera inmediata, desde California (35°N) hasta Chile (200S) y en las Islas Revillagigedo y Galápagos. La ocurrencia de barrilete y su abundancia aparente (expresada como CDSP standardizada en unidades de cerqueros) para 1951-1968 fueron luego superpuestas en los isogramas de la temperatura superficial. Los resultados demuestran que el barrilete aparece en temperaturas superficiales de > 17°C pero la mayoría entre los 20°C-30°C. La abundancia aparente de la CDSP > 1 tonelada/día se limita normalmente a aguas de 20°-29°C, excepto en dos áreas en ciertos años; desde el Golfo de Tehuantepec a Cabo Mala las tasas de 1-9 toneladas/día son relativamente comunes en los 29°-30°C, y frente a Chimbote (Perú) se registran ocasionalmente> 9 toneladas/día a una temperatura tan fría como de 18°C. Como era de esperarse no existió una relación aparente entre las condiciones térmicas anuales de la zona costanera y la abundancia del barrilete (captura total o índices de abundancia) en el mismo año o en los 2 años siguientes. Un Apéndice del informe determina la relación cuantitativa entre la temperatura superficial y la abundancia del barrilete en un estrato de áreas relativamente pequeño en las aguas de Baja California en 1955 y 1968. Las relaciones generalmente aparecieron significativas y opuestas en esos años cuando las temperaturas fueron respectivamente anómalamente frías y calientes. (PDF contains 53 pages.)

Stormwater runoff - modeling impacts of urbanization and climate change

Development pressure throughout the coastal areas of the United States continues to build, particularly in the southeast (Allen and Lu 2003, Crossett et al. 2004). It is well known that development alters watershed hydrology: as land becomes covered with surfaces impervious to rain, water is redirected from groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration to stormwater runoff, and as the area of impervious cover increases, so does the volume and rate of runoff (Schueler 1994, Corbett et al. 1997). Pollutants accumulate on impervious surfaces, and the increased runoff with urbanization is a leading cause of nonpoint source pollution (USEPA 2002). Sediment, chemicals, bacteria, viruses, and other pollutants are carried into receiving water bodies, resulting in degraded water quality (Holland et al. 2004, Sanger et al. 2008). (PDF contains 5 pages)