Application of a wind-driven barotropic model to simulate the seasonal circulation of the northern Arabian Sea

A two dimensional numerical barotropic model based on the depth-integrated equations is presented here. Sensitivity of the model is analyzed by using wind stresses of different months. Real wind data and actual bathymetry are used as an input to obtain the circulation patterns of the northern Arabian Sea during specific seasons. However, the model is also tested with constant depth for comparison. A number of numerical simulations are performed to study the combined effects of wind stress, bathymetry and basin geometry. Since the goal of this study is to simulate the circulation of the northern Arabian sea in accordance with the observed wind stress, therefore, wind stresses of different months like July (the peak os SW monsoon), October (the transition period from SW to NE monsoon), January (the peack of NE monsoon) and April (the transition period from NE to SW monsoon) are used to examine the circulation patterns. The results obtained are satisfactory in that they resemble known patterns.

Modeling Environmental Stress

The word stress when applied to ecosystems is ambiguous. Stress may be low-level, with accompanying near-linear strain, or it may be of finite magnitude, with nonlinear response and possible disintegration of the system. Since there are practically no widely accepted definitions of ecosystem strain, classification of models of stressed systems is tenuous. Despite appearances, most ecosystem models seem to fall into the low-level linear response category. Although they sometimes simulate systems behavior well, they do not provide necessary and sufficient information about sudden structural changes nor structure after transition. Dynamic models of finiteamplitude response to stress are rare because of analytical difficulties. Some idea as to future transition states can be obtained by regarding the behavior of unperturbed functions under limiting strain conditions. Preliminary work shows that, since community variables do respond in a coherent manner to stress, macroscopic analyses of stressed ecosystems offer possible alternatives to compartmental models.

Preliminary studies on the effects of light duration on the growth and performance of Clarias gariepinus fingerlings

The effects of light duration on the growth and performance of Clarias gariepinus fingerlings were investigated using artificial methods to simulate continuous day length and absolute darkness. The normal day length (12-H Light and 12-H Darkness) served as the control. Among some of the factors affected by the varying photoperiods there were body coloration, feeding efficiency, survival rate and Specific Growth Rate (SGR). There was notably no significant difference between the SGR of the 0-photoperiod culture and the control (P>0.05) but there was significant difference between the 0-photoperiod and the 24-H photoperiod experiment (P<0.05). The haematological profile analysed showed various degrees of changes in the blood parameters of fish cultured under different photoperiods. These changes however, did not show significant differences when subjected to statistical analysis

Heated aquatic microcosms for climate change experiments

Ponds and shallow lakes are likely to be strongly affected by climate change, and by increase in environmental temperature in particular. Hydrological regimes and nutrient cycling may be altered, plant and animal communities may undergo changes in both composition and dynamics, and long-term and difficult to reverse switches between alternative stable equilibria may occur. A thorough understanding of the potential effects of increased temperature on ponds and shallow lakes is desirable because these ecosystems are of immense importance throughout the world as sources of drinking water, and for their amenity and conservation value. This understanding can only come through experimental studies in which the effects of different temperature regimes are compared. This paper reports design details and operating characteristics of a recently constructed experimental facility consisting of 48 aquatic microcosms which mimic the pond and shallow lake environment. Thirty-two of the microcosms can be heated and regulated to simulate climate change scenarios, including those predicted for the UK. The authors also summarise the current and future experimental uses of the microcosms.

New challenges in lake and river monitoring

Freshwater ecosystems are highly dynamic and change on time-scales that range from a few hours to several months. The development of models that simulate these processes is often hampered by the lack of sufficient data to parameterize the processes and validate the models. In this article, I review some of the challenges posed by this lack of information and suggest ways in which they can be met by using automatic monitoring systems. One of these studies is the project tempQsim (EVK1-CT2002-00112) funded by the European Commission. In this project, detailed field and model analyses have been performed at eight catchment study sites in south and south-east Europe. A number of perceptual models for the study sites have been established, and results are being used to improve selected catchment models and provide a more adequate description of pollution dynamics. Results from the extensive field studies and model tests are now being used to derive recommendations for more tailored monitoring concepts in highly dynamic, but ‘data scarce’ environments, such as are frequently found in Mediterranean river basins. The author includes implications of the EU Water Framework Directive on monitoring methods.

Simulations of phytoplankton dynamics in El Gergal Reservoir, Southern Spain (PROTECH)

The Mediterranean region is characterised by a variable climate with most of the rain falling during the winter and frequent summer droughts. Such warm, dry periods are ideal for the growth of large algal blooms that often consist of potentially toxic Cyanobacteria. This makes the management of water for human use particularly challenging in such a climate and it is important to understand how such blooms can be avoided or at least be reduced in size. PROTECH (Phytoplankton RespOnses To Environmental CHange) is a model that simulates the dynamics of different species of phytoplankton populations in lakes and reservoirs. Its distinct advantage over similar models is its ability to simulate the relative composition of the algal flora, allowing both quantitative and qualitative conclusions to be drawn e.g. whether Cyanobacteria could be a potential problem. PROTECH has been applied primarily to lakes and reservoirs in northern Europe. Recently, however, the model has been applied to water bodies in lower latitudes, including Australia to a water supply reservoir in the south of Spain, El Gergal. El Gergal is the last in a chain of reservoirs that supply water to the city of Seville. It was brought into service in April 1979 and has a maximum storage volume of 35 000 000 m3. This article summarises the application of PROTECH in order to simulate the following problems: • the effect of a large influx of Ceratium biomass into El Gergal from another reservoir • the effect of using alternative water sources instead of the Guadalquivir River (used occasionally to raise water levels in El Gergal) • the effect of installing tertiary sewage treatment on the Cala River • the effect of simulated drought conditions on phytoplankton in the reservoir.

Aspects of the washout of salmonid eggs. 1. Observations on the physical characteristics of real and artificial eggs, their rate of fall in a water column and their pattern of settlement in an experimental channel

When salmonid redds are disrupted by spates, the displaced eggs will drift downstream. The mean distance of travel, the types of locations in which the eggs resettle and the depth of reburial of displaced eggs are not known. Investigation of these topics under field conditions presents considerable practical problems, though the use of artificial eggs might help to overcome some of them. Attempts to assess the similarities and/or differences in performance between real and artificial eggs are essential before artificial eggs can validly be used to simulate real eggs. The present report first compares the two types of egg in terms of their measurable physical characteristics (e.g. dimensions and density). The rate at which eggs fall in still water will relate to the rate at which they are likely to resettle in flowing water in the field. As the rate of fall will be influenced by a number of additional factors (e.g. shape and surface texture) which are not easily measured directly, the rates of fall of the two types of egg have been compared directly under controlled conditions. Finally, comparisons of the pattern of settlement of the two types of egg in flowing water in an experimental channel have been made. Although the work was primarily aimed at testing the value of artificial eggs as a simulation of real eggs, several side issues more directly concerned with the properties of real eggs and the likely distance of drift in natural streams have also been explored. This is the first of three reports made on this topic by the author in 1984.

A tool for better management of water quality during periods of algal blooms: the case of the River Oise

Like other rivers in the Paris area, the Oise is subject to important seasonal algal blooms. This eutrophication generates notable problems for the production of drinking-water from a treatment plant on the river at Méry. A mathematical model has been developed to simulate variation in water quality in a pre-treatment storage basin, and another model is currently being adapted to model the River Oise. Integration of the two models should provide a comprehensive tool for predicting variations of phytoplankton and water-quality parameters associated with algal blooms. This will be a decision-aid for optimizing control of the treatment process for providing potable water.

The potential of RIVPACS for predicting the effects of environmental change

RIVPACS has been used successfully for biological assessment of river water quality but its potential in forecasting the effects of environmental change has not been investigated. This study has shown that it is possible to simulate faunal changes in response to environmental disturbance, provided that the disturbance directly involves the environmental variables used in RIVPACS predictions. These variables relate to channel shape, discharge and substratum. Many impacts, particularly those associated with pollution, will not affect these variables and therefore RIVPACS cannot simulate the effects of pollution. RIVPACS was sensitive only to major changes in substratum. It was concluded that, because of the static nature of RIVPACS, it cannot respond to the dynamic effects and processes associated with environmental disturbance. Thus RIVPACS, while showing direction of change and indicating sensitive taxa, cannot be used to predict or forecast the effects of environmental impacts.

Simple method for backyard production of snakehead (Channa striata Bloch) fry

The snakehead (Channa striata ) is a common freshwater fish species in Malaysia. Details are given of a simple technique for breeding this species, suitable for small-scale farmers practising backyard aquaculture. Two techniques were used to induce spawning - the first used water level manipulation to simulate rain and the second used injected with human chorionic gonadotropic hormone. The former, more natural, spawning technique was found to provide a viable alternative for the small-scale farmer, being much simpler than hormone injection.

Effects of fishing on growth traits: a simulation analysis

Abstract—Fisheries often target individuals based on size. Size-selective fishing can create selection differentials on life-history traits and, when those traits have a genetic basis, may cause evolution. The evolution of life history traits affects potential yield and sustainability of fishing, and it is therefore an issue for fishery management. Yet fishery managers usually disregard the possibility of evolution, because little guidance is available to predict evolutionary consequences of management strategies. We attempt to provide some generic guidance. We develop an individual-based model of a population with overlapping generations and continuous reproduction. We simulate model populations under size-selective fishing to generate and quantify selection differentials on growth. The analysis comprises a variety of common life-history and fishery characteristics: variability in growth, correlation between von Bertalanffy growth parameters (K and L∞), maturity rate, natural mortality rate (M), M/K ratio, duration of spawning season, fishing mortality rate (F), maximum size limit, slope of selectivity curve, age at 50% selectivity, and duration of fishing season. We found that each characteristic affected the magnitude of selection differentials. The most vulnerable stocks were those with a short spawning or fishing season. Under almost all life-history and fishery characteristics examined, selection differentials created by realistic fishing mortality rates are considerable.

Differences in Dolphin Mortality Rates in Night and Day Sets for the U.S. Eastern Tropical Pacific Tuna Purse Seine Fishery

Because dolphins sometimes travel with yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacares, in the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP), purse seiners use the dolphins to locate and capture tuna schools. During the process of setting the purse seine nets, dolphins often become entangled and drown before they can be released. Data for the U.S. purse seine fleet in the ETP during 1979-88 show that dolphin mortality rates in sets made during the night are higher than mortality rates in sets made during the day. Even with efforts to reduce nightset mortality rates through the use of high intensity floodlights, night set mortality rates remain higher. The data are also used to simulate a regulation on the fishery aimed at eliminating night sets and show that dolphin mortality rates would decrease.

Economic and social impacts of Integrated Aquaculture-Agriculture technologies in Bangladesh

This study estimated the adoption rate of integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) technologies in Bangladesh and their impact on poverty and fish and food consumption in adopting households. We used a novel, simulation-based approach to impact assessment called Tradeoff Analysis for Multi-Dimensional Impact Assessment (TOA-MD). We used the TOA-MD model to demonstrate how it is possible to use available data to estimate adoption rates in relevant populations, and to quantify impacts on distributional outcomes such as poverty and food security, thus demonstrating ex ante the potential for further investment in technology dissemination. The analysis used baseline and end-of-project survey data from WorldFish-implemented Development of Sustainable Aquaculture Project (DSAP), promoting IAA. This dataset was used to simulate adoption and assess its impacts on poverty and food security in the target population. We found that, if adopted, IAA had a significant positive impact on reducing poverty and improving food security and income.

The annual course of precipitation over much of the United States: observed versus GCM simulation

General Circulation Models (GCMs) may be useful in estimating the ecological impacts of global climatic change. We analyzed seasonal weather patterns over the conterminous United States and determined that regional patterns of rainfall seasonality appear to control the distributions of the Nation's major biomes. These regional patterns were compared to the output from three GCMs for validation. The models appear to simulate the appropriate seasonal climates in the northern tier of states. However, the spatial extent of these regions is distorted. None of the models accurately portrayed rainfall seasonalities in the southern tier of states, where biomes are primarily influenced by the Bermuda High.

GCM-data intercomparison: the good news and the bad

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): General circulation models (GCMs) are probably the most sophisticated theoretical tools we have to simulate possible climatic effects of increasing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. ... As will be illustrated here using a variety of examples, although the models do simulate "reality" very well on the "grand" scale (e.g., global, hemispheric, zonal), substantial differences are more apparent as the scale is reduced to areas particularly relevant to regional planners. It is particularly important that workers more clearly recognize the potential dangers in relying too heavily on simple summary statistics such as averages estimated over large regional scales. Many shortcomings are apparent in the model simulations of the present climate, indicating that further model improvements are needed to achieve reliable regional and seasonal projections of the future climatic conditions.