5 resultados para Signed likelihood ratio test

em Aquatic Commons


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The carpenter seabream (Argyrozona argyrozona) is an endemic South African sparid that comprises an important part of the handline fishery. A three-year study (1998−2000) into its reproductive biology within the Tsitsikamma National Park revealed that these fishes are serial spawning late gonochorists. The size at 50% maturity (L50) was estimated at 292 and 297 mm FL for both females and males, respectively. A likelihood ratio test revealed that there was no significant difference between male and female L50 (P>0.5). Both monthly gonadosomatic indices and macroscopically determined ovarian stages strongly indicate that A. argyrozona within the Tsitsikamma National Park spawn in the astral summer between November and April. The presence of postovulatory follicles (POFs) confirmed a six-month spawning season, and monthly proportions of early (0−6 hour old) POFs showed that spawning frequency was highest (once every 1−2 days) from December to March. Although spawning season was more highly correlated to photoperiod (r = 0.859) than temperature (r = −0.161), the daily proportion of spawning fish was strongly correlated (r= 0.93) to ambient temperature over the range 9−22oC. These results indicate that short-term upwelling events, a strong feature in the Tsitsikamma National Park during summer, may negatively affect carpenter fecundity. Both spawning frequency and duration (i.e., length of spawning season) increased with fish length. As a result of the allometric relationship between annual fecundity and fish mass a 3-kg fish was calculated to produce fivefold more eggs per kilogram of body weight than a fish of 1 kg. In addition to producing more eggs per unit of weight each year, larger fish also produce significantly larger eggs.

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We present a method to integrate environmental time series into stock assessment models and to test the significance of correlations between population processes and the environmental time series. Parameters that relate the environmental time series to population processes are included in the stock assessment model, and likelihood ratio tests are used to determine if the parameters improve the fit to the data significantly. Two approaches are considered to integrate the environmental relationship. In the environmental model, the population dynamics process (e.g. recruitment) is proportional to the environmental variable, whereas in the environmental model with process error it is proportional to the environmental variable, but the model allows an additional temporal variation (process error) constrained by a log-normal distribution. The methods are tested by using simulation analysis and compared to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. In the traditional method, the estimates of recruitment were provided by a model that allowed the recruitment only to have a temporal variation constrained by a log-normal distribution. We illustrate the methods by applying them to test the statistical significance of the correlation between sea-surface temperature (SST) and recruitment to the snapper (Pagrus auratus) stock in the Hauraki Gulf–Bay of Plenty, New Zealand. Simulation analyses indicated that the integrated approach with additional process error is superior to the traditional method of correlating model estimates with environmental variables outside the estimation procedure. The results suggest that, for the snapper stock, recruitment is positively correlated with SST at the time of spawning.

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Fish growth is commonly estimated from length-at-age data obtained from otoliths. There are several techniques for estimating length-at-age from otoliths including 1) direct observed counts of annual increments; 2) age adjustment based on a categorization of otolith margins; 3) age adjustment based on known periods of spawning and annuli formation; 4) back-calculation to all annuli, and 5) back-calculation to the last annulus only. In this study we compared growth estimates (von Bertalanffy growth functions) obtained from the above five methods for estimating length-at-age from otoliths for two large scombrids: narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson) and broad-barred king mackerel (Scomberomorus semifasciatus). Likelihood ratio tests revealed that the largest differences in growth occurred between the back-calculation methods and the observed and adjusted methods for both species of mackerel. The pattern, however, was more pronounced for S. commerson than for S. semifasciatus, because of the pronounced effect of gear selectivity demonstrated for S. commerson. We propose a method of substituting length-at-age data from observed or adjusted methods with back-calculated length-at-age data to provide more appropriate estimates of population growth than those obtained with the individual methods alone, particularly when faster growing young fish are disproportionately selected for. Substitution of observed or adjusted length-at-age data with back-calculated length-at-age data provided more realistic estimates of length for younger ages than observed or adjusted methods as well as more realistic estimates of mean maximum length than those derived from backcalculation methods alone.

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Growth of a temperate reefa-ssociated fish, the purple wrasse (Notolabrus fucicola), was examined from two sites on the east coast of Tasmania by using age- and length-based models. Models based on the von Bertalanffy growth function, in the standard and a reparameterized form, were constructed by using otolith-derived age estimates. Growth trajectories from tag-recaptures were used to construct length-based growth models derived from the GROTAG model, in turn a reparameterization of the Fabens model. Likelihood ratio tests (LRTs) determined the optimal parameterization of the GROTAG model, including estimators of individual growth variability, seasonal growth, measurement error, and outliers for each data set. Growth models and parameter estimates were compared by bootstrap confidence intervals, LRTs, and randomization tests and plots of bootstrap parameter estimates. The relative merit of these methods for comparing models and parameters was evaluated; LRTs combined with bootstrapping and randomization tests provided the most insight into the relationships between parameter estimates. Significant differences in growth of purple wrasse were found between sites in both length- and age-based models. A significant difference in the peak growth season was found between sites, and a large difference in growth rate between sexes was found at one site with the use of length-based models.

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Samples of 11,000 King George whiting (Sillaginodes punctata) from the South Australian commercial and recreational catch, supplemented by research samples, were aged from otoliths. Samples were analyzed from three coastal regions and by sex. Most sampling was undertaken at fish processing plants, from which only fish longer than the legal minimum length were obtained. A left-truncated normal distribution of lengths at monthly age was therefore employed as model likelihood. Mean length-at-monthly-age was described by a generalized von Bertalanffy formula with sinusoidal seasonality. Likelihood standard deviation was modeled to vary allometrically with mean length. A range of related formulas (with 6 to 8 parameters) for seasonal mean length at age were compared. In addition to likelihood ratio tests of relative fit, model selection criteria were a minimum occurrence of high uncertainties (>20% SE), of high correlations (>0.9, >0.95, and >0.99) and of parameter estimates at their biological limits, and we sought a model with a minimum number of parameters. A generalized von Bertalanffy formula with t0 fixed at 0 was chosen. The truncated likelihood alleviated the overestimation bias of mean length at age that would otherwise accrue from catch samples being restricted to legal sizes.