The A Posteriori Aspects of Estuarine Modeling

This exercise is the application of an analytical method for systematically modeling ecosystems data to observations made on a naturally eutrophic, mesohaline planktonic microcosm. The theory and experimental design are briefly outlined and the particular steps in the acutal modeling process follow. Then there is a discussion as to how the whole endeavor can be refined to culminate in models with predictive capabilities. (PDF has 16 pages.)

Modeling the Chesapeake Bay and Tributaries: a synopsis

The last decade has seen the development and application of a spectrum of physical and numerical hydrographic models of the Chesapeake Bay and its tributaries. The success of the James River Hydraulic Model has initiated the construction of an estuarine hydraulic model of the entire Chesapeake System. Numerical analogues for hydrographic behavior and contaminant dispersion in one-, two-, and three dimensional model estuaries exist for various regions of the Bay. From an engineering viewpoint, one dimensional models are sufficiently advanced to be routinely employed in aiding management decisions. Bay investigators are playing leading roles in the development of two- and three-dimensional models of estuarine flows.

The Empirical Modeling of an Ecosystem

The authors have endeavored to create a verified a-posteriori model of a planktonic ecosystem. Verification of an empirically derived set of first-order, quadratic differential equations proved elusive due to the sensitivity of the model system to changes in initial conditions. Efforts to verify a similarly derived set of linear differential equations were more encouraging, yielding reasonable behavior for half of the ten ecosystem compartments modeled. The well-behaved species models gave indications as to the rate-controlling processes in the ecosystem.

Modeling Environmental Stress

The word stress when applied to ecosystems is ambiguous. Stress may be low-level, with accompanying near-linear strain, or it may be of finite magnitude, with nonlinear response and possible disintegration of the system. Since there are practically no widely accepted definitions of ecosystem strain, classification of models of stressed systems is tenuous. Despite appearances, most ecosystem models seem to fall into the low-level linear response category. Although they sometimes simulate systems behavior well, they do not provide necessary and sufficient information about sudden structural changes nor structure after transition. Dynamic models of finiteamplitude response to stress are rare because of analytical difficulties. Some idea as to future transition states can be obtained by regarding the behavior of unperturbed functions under limiting strain conditions. Preliminary work shows that, since community variables do respond in a coherent manner to stress, macroscopic analyses of stressed ecosystems offer possible alternatives to compartmental models.

Establishing National Ocean Service Priorities for Estuarine, Coastal, and Ocean Modeling: Capabilities, Gaps, and Preliminary Prioritization Factors

This report was developed to help establish National Ocean Service priorities and chart new directions for research and development of models for estuarine, coastal and ocean ecosystems based on user-driven requirements and supportive of sound coastal management, stewardship, and an ecosystem approach to management. (PDF contains 63 pages)