Wind wave prediction in the Caspian Sea

In this thesis, wind wave prediction and analysis in the Southern Caspian Sea are surveyed. Because of very much importance and application of this matter in reducing vital and financial damages or marine activities, such as monitoring marine pollution, designing marine structure, shipping, fishing, offshore industry, tourism and etc, gave attention by some marine activities. In this study are used the Caspian Sea topography data that are extracted from the Caspian Sea Hydrography map of Iran Armed Forces Geographical Organization and the I 0 meter wind field data that are extracted from the transmitted GTS synoptic data of regional centers to Forecasting Center of Iran Meteorological Organization for wave prediction and is used the 20012 wave are recorded by the oil company's buoy that was located at distance 28 Kilometers from Neka shore for wave analysis. The results of this research are as follows: - Because of disagreement between the prediction results of SMB method in the Caspian sea and wave data of the Anzali and Neka buoys. The SMB method isn't able to Predict wave characteristics in the Southern Caspian Sea. - Because of good relativity agreement between the WAM model output in the Caspian Sea and wave data of the Anzali buoy. The WAM model is able to predict wave characteristics in the southern Caspian Sea with high relativity accuracy. The extreme wave height distribution function for fitting to the Southern Caspian Sea wave data is obtained by determining free parameters of Poisson-Gumbel function through moment method. These parameters are as below: A=2.41, B=0.33. The maximum relative error between the estimated 4-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant wave height by above function with the wave data of Neka buoy is about %35. The 100-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant height wave is about 4.97 meter. The maximum relative error between the estimated 4-year return value of the Southern Caspian Sea significant wave height by statistical model of peak over threshold with the wave data of Neka buoy is about %2.28. The parametric relation for fitting to the Southern Caspian Sea frequency spectra is obtained by determining free parameters of the Strekalov, Massel and Krylov etal_ multipeak spectra through mathematical method. These parameters are as below: A = 2.9 B=26.26, C=0.0016 m=0.19 and n=3.69. The maximum relative error between calculated free parameters of the Southern Caspian Sea multipeak spectrum with the proposed free parameters of double-peaked spectrum by Massel and Strekalov on the experimental data from the Caspian Sea is about 36.1 % in spectrum energetic part and is about 74M% in spectrum high frequency part. The peak over threshold waverose of the Southern Caspian Sea shows that maximum occurrence probability of wave height is relevant to waves with 2-2.5 meters wave fhe error sources in the statistical analysis are mainly due to: l) the missing wave data in 2 years duration through battery discharge of Neka buoy. 2) the deportation %15 of significant height annual mean in single year than long period average value that is caused by lack of adequate measurement on oceanic waves, and the error sources in the spectral analysis are mainly due to above- mentioned items and low accurate of the proposed free parameters of double-peaked spectrum on the experimental data from the Caspian Sea.

Shoreline erosion due to extreme storms and sea level rise

A summary is presented of research conducted on beach erosion associated with extreme storms and sea level rise. These results were developed by the author and graduate students under sponsorship of the University of Delaware Sea Grant Program. Various shoreline response problems of engineering interest are examined. The basis for the approach is a monotonic equilibrium profile of the form h = Ax2 /3 in which h is water depth at a distance x from the shoreline and A is a scale parameter depending primarily on sediment characteristics and secondarily on wave characteristics. This form is shown to be consistent with uniform wave energy dissipation per unit volume. The dependency of A on sediment size is quantified through laboratory and field data. Quasi-static beach response is examined to represent the effect of sea level rise. Cases considered include natural and seawalled profiles. To represent response to storms of realistic durations, a model is proposed in which the offshore transport is proportional to the "excess" energy dissipation per unit volume. The single rate constant in this model was evaluated based on large scale wave tank tests and confirmed with Hurricane Eloise pre- and post-storm surveys. It is shown that most hurricanes only cause 10% to 25% of the erosion potential associated with the peak storm tide and wave conditions. Additional applications include profile response employing a fairly realistic breaking model in which longshore bars are formed and long-term (500 years) Monte Carlo simulation including the contributions due to sea level rise and random storm occurrences. (PDF has 67 pages.)

Population structure, long-term connectivity, and effective size of mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis) in the Caribbean Sea and Florida Keys

Genetic structure and average long-term connectivity and effective size of mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis) sampled from offshore localities in the U.S. Caribbean and the Florida Keys were assessed by using nuclear-encoded microsatellites and a fragment of mitochondrial DNA. No significant differences in allele, genotype (microsatellites), or haplotype (mtDNA) distributions were detected; tests of selective neutrality (mtDNA) were nonsignificant after Bonferroni correction. Heuristic estimates of average long-term rate of migration (proportion of migrant individuals/generation) between geographically adjacent localities varied from 0.0033 to 0.0054, indicating that local subpopulations could respond independently of environmental perturbations. Estimates of average longterm effective population sizes varied from 341 to 1066 and differed significantly among several of the localities. These results indicate that over time larval drift and interregional adult movement may not be sufficient to maintain population sustainability across the region and that there may be different demographic stocks at some of the localities studied. The estimate of long-term effective population size at the locality offshore of St. Croix was below the minimum threshold size considered necessary to maintain the equilibrium between the loss of adaptive genetic variance from genetic drift and its replacement by mutation. Genetic variability in mutton snapper likely is maintained at the intraregional level by aggregate spawning and random mating of local populations. This feature is perhaps ironic in that aggregate spawning also renders mutton snapper especially vulnerable to overexploitation.

An Accounting of the Sources of Steller Sea Lion, Eumetopias jubatus, Mortality

During 1991–2000, the west-are additional mortalities that fueled the ern stock of Steller sea lions, Eumetopias decline. We tabulated the levels of reported jubatus, declined at 5.03% (SE = 0.25%) anthropogenic sources of mortality (sub- per year, statistically significant rates (P < sistence, incidental take in fisheries, and 0.10) in all but the eastern Aleutian Islands research), estimated another (illegal shoot-region. The greatest rates of declines oc-ing), then approximated levels of predation curred in the eastern and central Gulf of Alas-(killer whales and sharks). We attempted to ka and the western Aleutian Islands (> 8.2% partition the various sources of “additional” per year). Using a published correction mortalities as anthropogenic and as addifactor, we estimated the total non-pup pop-tional mortality including some predation. ulation size in Alaska of the western stock We classified 436 anthropogenic mortalities of Steller sea lions to be about 33,000 ani-and 769 anthropogenic plus some predation mals. Based on a published life table and mortalities as “mortality above replace-the current rate of decline, we estimate that ment”; this accounted for 26% and 46% of the total number of mortalities of non-pup the estimated total level of “mortality above Steller sea lions during 1991–2000 was replacement”, respectively. The remaining about 6,383 animals; of those, 4,718 (74%) mortality (74% and 54%, respectively) was are mortalities that would have occurred if not attributed to a specific cause and may be the population were stable, and 1,666 (26%) the result of nutritional stress.

An ecological correction to marine reserves boundaries in the US Virgin Islands

Marine protected areas (MPAs) are important tools for management of marine ecosystems. While desired, ecological and biological criteria are not always feasible to consider when establishing protected areas. In 2001, the Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument (VICR) in St. John, US Virgin Islands was established by Executive Order. VICR boundaries were based on administrative determination of Territorial Sea boundaries and land ownership at the time of the Territorial Submerged Lands Act of 1974. VICR prohibits almost all fishing and other extractive uses. Surveys of habitat and fishes inside and outside of VICR were conducted in 2002-07. Based on these surveys, areas outside VICR had significantly more hard corals; greater habitat complexity; and greater richness, abundance and biomass of reef fishes than areas within VICR, further supporting results from 2002-2004 (Monaco et al., 2007). The administrative (political) process used to establish VICR did not allow a robust ecological characterization of the area to determine the boundaries of the MPA. Efforts are underway to increase amounts of complex reef habitat within VICR by swapping a part of VICR that has little coral reef habitat for a Territorially-owned area within VICR that contains a coral reef with higher coral cover.

Use of skeletochronological analysis to estimate the age of leatherback sea turtles Dermochelys coriacea in the western North Atlantic

Although growth rate and age data are essential for leatherback management, estimates of these demographic parameters remain speculative due to the cryptic life history of this endangered species. Skeletochronological analysis of scleral ossicles obtained from 8 captive, known-age and 33 wild leatherbacks originating from the western North Atlantic was conducted to characterize the ossicles and the growth marks within them. Ages were accurately estimated for the known-age turtles, and their growth mark attributes were used to calibrate growth mark counts for the ossicles from wild specimens. Due to growth mark compaction and resorption, the number of marks visible at ossicle section tips was consistently and significantly greater than the number visible along the lateral edges, demonstrating that growth mark counts should be performed at the tips so that age is not underestimated. A correction factor protocol that incorporated the trajectory of early growth increments was used to estimate the number of missing marks in those ossicles exhibiting resorption, which was then added to the number of observed marks to obtain an age estimate for each turtle. A generalized smoothing spline model, von Bertalanffy growth curve, and size-at-age function were used to obtain estimates of age at maturity for leatherbacks in the western North Atlantic. Results of these analyses suggest that median age at maturation for leatherbacks in this part of the world may range from 24.5 to 29 yr. These age estimates are much greater than those proposed in previous studies and have significant implications for population management and recovery.

A method to improve size estimates of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius) consumed by pinnipeds: digestion correction factors applied to bones and otoliths recovered in scats

The lengths of otoliths and other skeletal structures recovered from the scats of pinnipeds, such as Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus), correlate with body size and can be used to estimate the length of prey consumed. Unfortunately, otoliths are often found in too few scats or are too digested to usefully estimate prey size. Alternative diagnostic bones are frequently recovered, but few bone-size to prey-size correlations exist and bones are also reduced in size by various degrees owing to digestion. To prevent underestimates in prey sizes consumed techniques are required to account for the degree of digestion of alternative bones prior to estimating prey size. We developed a method (using defined criteria and photo-reference material) to assign the degree of digestion for key cranial structures of two prey species: walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius). The method grades each structure into one of three condition categories; good, fair or poor. We also conducted feeding trials with captive Steller sea lions, feeding both fish species to determine the extent of erosion of each structure and to derive condition-specific digestion correction factors to reconstruct the original sizes of the structures consumed. In general, larger structures were relatively more digested than smaller ones. Mean size reduction varied between different types of structures (3.3−26.3%), but was not influenced by the size of the prey consumed. Results from the observations and experiments were combined to be able to reconstruct the size of prey consumed by sea lions and other pinnipeds. The proposed method has four steps: 1) measure the recovered structures and grade the extent of digestion by using defined criteria and photo-reference collection; 2) exclude structures graded in poor condition; 3) multiply measurements of structures in good and fair condition by their appropriate digestion correction factors to derive their original size; and 4) calculate the size of prey from allometric regressions relating corrected structure measurements to body lengths. This technique can be readily applied to piscivore dietary studies that use hard remains of fish.

Sizes of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius) consumed by the western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska from 1999 to 2000

Prey-size selectivity by Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) is relevant for understanding the foraging behavior of this declining predator, but studies have been problematic because of the absence and erosion of otoliths usually used to estimate fish length. Therefore, we developed regression formulae to estimate fish length from seven diagnostic cranial structures of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) and Atka mackerel (Pleurogrammus monopterygius). For both species, all structure measurements were related with fork length of prey (r2 range: 0.78−0.99). Fork length (FL) of walleye pollock and Atka mackerel consumed by Steller sea lions was estimated by applying these regression models to cranial structures recovered from scats (feces) collected between 1998 and 2000 across the range of the Alaskan western stock of Steller sea lions. Experimentally derived digestion correction factors were applied to take into account loss of size due to digestion. Fork lengths of walleye pollock consumed by Steller sea lions ranged from 3.7 to 70.8 cm (mean=39.3 cm, SD=14.3 cm, n=666) and Atka mackerel ranged from 15.3 to 49.6 cm (mean=32.3 cm, SD=5.9 cm, n=1685). Although sample sizes were limited, a greater proportion of juvenile (≤20 cm) walleye pollock were found in samples collected during the summer (June−September) on haul-out sites (64% juveniles, n=11 scats) than on summer rookeries (9% juveniles, n=132 scats) or winter (February−March) haul-out sites (3% juveniles, n=69 scats). Annual changes in the size of Atka mackerel consumed by Steller sea lions corresponded to changes in the length distribution of Atka mackerel resulting from exceptionally strong year classes. Considerable overlap (>51%) in the size of walleye pollock and Atka mackerel taken by Steller sea lions and the sizes of these species caught by the commercial trawl fishery were demonstrated.

Sizes of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) consumed by the eastern stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Southeast Alaska from 1994 to 1999

Lengths of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) consumed by Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) were estimated by using allometric regressions applied to seven diagnostic cranial structures recovered from 531 scats collected in Southeast Alaska between 1994 and 1999. Only elements in good and fair condition were selected. Selected structural measurements were corrected for loss of size due to erosion by using experimentally derived condition-specific digestion correction factors. Correcting for digestion increased the estimated length of fish consumed by 23%, and the average mass of fish consumed by 88%. Mean corrected fork length (FL) of pollock consumed was 42.4 ±11.6 cm (range=10.0−78.1 cm, n=909). Adult pollock (FL>45.0 cm) occurred more frequently in scats collected from rookeries along the open ocean coastline of Southeast Alaska during June and July (74% adults, mean FL=48.4 cm) than they did in scats from haul-outs located in inside waters between October and May (51% adults, mean FL=38.4 cm). Overall, the contribution of juvenile pollock (≤20 cm) to the sea lion diet was insignificant; whereas adults contributed 44% to the diet by number and 74% by mass. On average, larger pollock were eaten in summer at rookeries throughout Southeast Alaska than at rookeries in the Gulf of Alaska and the Bering Sea. Overall it appears that Steller sea lions are capable of consuming a wide size range of pollock, and the bulk of fish fall between 20 and 60 cm. The use of cranial hard parts other than otoliths and the application of digestion correction factors are fundamental to correctly estimating the sizes of prey consumed by sea lions and determining the extent that these sizes overlap with the sizes of pollock caught by commercial fisheries.

The study of the sea state data collected from Bay of Bengal during 1964-65

The wave data collected on board Ins Kistna from Bay of Bengal during July to August, 1964 and January, February and April, 1965 are presented. The wave parameters are analyzed and given in a form most suitable for model testing of ships. The variation of wave height with Beaufort number is remarkable. Wave periods from 2 to 10 seconds are observed with maximum frequency in the range of 2 to 5 seconds. The heights and period obtained are compared with those obtained by previous workers for the North Atlantic region and Bay of Bengal. The influence of the wave period 2 to 5 seconds on the rolling, pitching and heaving periods of medium size vessels is also discussed.