Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Exploratory analysis of resource demand and the environmental footprint of future aquaculture development using Life Cycle Assessment

Increases in fish demand in the coming decades are projected to be largely met by growth of aquaculture. However, increased aquaculture production is linked to higher demand for natural resources and energy as well as emissions to the environment. This paper explores the use of Life Cycle Assessment to improve knowledge of potential environmental impacts of future aquaculture growth. Different scenarios of future aquaculture development are taken into account in calculating the life cycle environmental impacts. The environmental impact assessments were built on Food and Agriculture Organization statistics in terms of production volume of different species, whereas the inputs and outputs associated with aquaculture production systems were sourced from the literature. The matrix of input-output databases was established through the Blue Frontiers study.

Three dimensional modeling of contaminants transportation (oil spill) in Caspian Sea

Nowadays, Caspian Sea is in focus of more attentions than past because of its individualistic as the biggest lake in the world and the existing of very large oil and gas resources within it. Very large scale of oil pollution caused by development of oil exploration and excavation activities not only make problem for coastal facilities but also make severe damage on environment. In the first stage of this research, the location and quality of oil resources in offshore and onshore have been determined and then affected depletion factors on oil spill such as evaporation, emulsification, dissolution, sedimentation and so on have been studied. In second stage, sea hydrodynamics model is offered and tested by determination of governing hydrodynamic equations on sea currents and on pollution transportation in sea surface and by finding out main parameters in these equations such as Coriolis, bottom friction, wind and etc. this model has been calculated by using cell vertex finite volume method in an unstructured mesh domain. According to checked model; sea currents of Caspian Sea in different seasons of the year have been determined and in final stage different scenarios of oil spill movement in Caspian sea on various conditions have been investigated by modeling of three dimensional oil spill movement on surface (affected by sea currents) and on depth (affected by buoyancy, drag and gravity forces) by applying main above mentioned depletion factors.

Pacific Hake, Merluccius productus, Autecology: A Timely Review

Pacific hake, Merluccius productus, the most abundant groundfish in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem (CCLME), is a species of both commercial significance, supporting a large international fishery, and ecological importance, connecting other species as both predator and prey. Coastal Pacific hake migrations are characterized by movements between northern summer feeding areas and southern winter spawning areas, with variations in annual abundance, distribution, and the extent of these movements associated with varying climate-ocean conditions. In general, warm (cool) years with enhanced (reduced) stratification and poleward (equatorward) transport are often related to good (poor) recruitment, increased (decreased) northward distribution, and reduced (enhanced) growth. However, the classic periodic pattern of annual migration and distribution may no longer be fully representative. Based on recent advances in the understanding of climate-ocean variability off the U.S. west coast, we hypothesize that the annual movements of Pacific hake are more responsive to climate-ocean variability than previously thought, and further, that changes observed in Pacific hake distributions may reflect long-term changes in climate-ocean conditions in the CCLME. Therefore, an updated model of these relations is key to effective monitoring and management of this stock, as well as to devising scenarios of future change in the CCLME as a result of climate variations. The current state of knowledge of the relationship between the Pacific hake and its environment is reviewed, highlighting emerging ideas compared to those of the past, and priorities for future research are suggested.