PICES-GLOBEC International Program on Climate Change and Carrying Capacity

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY WORKSHOP OVERVIEW Introduction Goals and objectives of the workshop Organizing committee, participants, sponsors and venue Workshop activity NEMURO.FISH COUPLED WITH A POPULATION DYNAMICS MODEL (SAURY) Introduction One cohort case with no reproduction Two (overlapping) cohort scenario with no reproduction Two-cohort case with no reproduction and body size-dependent mortality Two-cohort case with reproduction and KL-dependent mortality Conclusions and future perspectives LAGRANGIAN MODEL OF NEMURO.FISH Tasks and members Description of model and preliminary results Future tasks COUPLING NEMURO TO HERRING BIOENERGETICS Overview Details of the NEMURO_Herring model Example simulation of NEMURO_Herring Future plans REFERENCES APPENDICES Workshop participants Workshop schedule Lagrangian model (FORTRAN program) (55 page document)

Impacts of inorganic turbidity on diquat efficacy against Egeria densa

In clear water, diquat [6,7-dihydrodipyrido (1,2-1a:2',1'-c) pyrazinediium dibromide] provides excellent submersed Plant control at low concentrations, such as <0.5 mg active ingredient (ai) L-1: however. turbid water conditions can interfere with the activity and effectiveness of this herbicide. Little work has been done to examine what ranges of turbidity caused by different Suspended sediment types affect diquat efficacy against a target species. A growth chamber study was conducted rising diquat against the submersed macrophyte -egeria (Egeria densa Planch.) under a range Of turbid conditions. Two materials were used to create turbid beater conditions: 100% bentonite clay for a "worst-case" scenario and a natural partial-clav (20% clay). Results indicated that a high rate of diquat (2 mg ai L-1) controlled egeria under relatively low levels of turbidity (5-10 NTU) using bentonite clay: however. higher levels (25 to 50 NTU) of turbidity essentially blocked effectiveness of diquat when applied at all rates tested (0.5. 1, 2 mg ai L-1). When using a natural partial-clay sediment, rates of 1 to 2 mg ai L-1 diquat provided good control of egeria in moderately turbid water (15 NTU). Additional evaluations rising different clay types would be useful to determine the effect of inorganic turbidity oil diquat efficacy.

An Integrated Assessment of the Introduction of Lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles complex) to the Western Atlantic Ocean.

Lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles complex) are venomous coral reef fishes from the Indian and western Pacific oceans that are now found in the western Atlantic Ocean. Adult lionfish have been observed from Miami, Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and juvenile lionfish have been observed off North Carolina, New York, and Bermuda. The large number of adults observed and the occurrence of juveniles indicate that lionfish are established and reproducing along the southeast United States coast. Introductions of marine species occur in many ways. Ballast water discharge, a very common method of introduction for marine invertebrates, is responsible for many freshwater fish introductions. In contrast, most marine fish introductions result from intentional stocking for fishery purposes. Lionfish, however, likely were introduced via unintentional or intentional aquarium releases, and the introduction of lionfish into United States waters should lead to an assessment of the threat posed by the aquarium trade as a vector for fish introductions. Currently, no management actions are being taken to limit the effect of lionfish on the southeast United States continental shelf ecosystem. Further, only limited funds have been made available for research. Nevertheless, the extent of the introduction has been documented and a forecast of the maximum potential spread of lionfish is being developed. Under a scenario of no management actions and limited research, three predictions are made: ● With no action, the lionfish population will continue to grow along the southeast United States shelf. ● Effects on the marine ecosystem of the southeast United States will become more noticeable as the lionfish population grows. ● There will be incidents of lionfish envenomations of divers and/or fishers along the east coast of the United States. Removing lionfish from the southeast United States continental shelf ecosystem would be expensive and likely impossible. A bounty could be established that would encourage the removal of fish and provide specimens for research. However, the bounty would need to be lower than the price of fish in the aquarium trade (~$25-$50 each) to ensure that captured specimens were from the wild. Such a low bounty may not provide enough incentive for capturing lionfish in the wild. Further, such action would only increase the interaction between the public and lionfish, increasing the risk of lionfish envenomations. As the introduction of lionfish is very likely irreversible, future actions should focus on five areas. 1) The population of lionfish should be tracked. 2) Research should be conducted so that scientists can make better predictions regarding the status of the invasion and the effects on native species, ecosystem function, and ecosystem services. 3) Outreach and education efforts must be increased, both specifically toward lionfish and more generally toward the aquarium trade as a method of fish introductions. 4) Additional regulation should be considered to reduce the frequency of marine fish introduction into U.S. waters. However, the issue is more complicated than simply limiting the import of non-native species, and these complexities need to be considered simultaneously. 5) Health care providers along the east coast of the United States need to be notified that a venomous fish is now resident along the southeast United States. The introduction and spread of lionfish illustrates the difficulty inherent in managing introduced species in marine systems. Introduced species often spread via natural mechanisms after the initial introduction. Efforts to control the introduction of marine fish will fail if managers do not consider the natural dispersal of a species following an introduction. Thus, management strategies limiting marine fish introductions need to be applied over the scale of natural ecological dispersal to be effective, pointing to the need for a regional management approach defined by natural processes not by political boundaries. The introduction and success of lionfish along the east coast should change the long-held perception that marine fish invasions are a minimal threat to marine ecosystems. Research is needed to determine the effects of specific invasive fish species in specific ecosystems. More broadly, a cohesive plan is needed to manage, mitigate and minimize the effects of marine invasive fish species on ecosystems that are already compromised by other human activities. Presently, the magnitude of marine fish introductions as a stressor on marine ecosystems cannot be quantified, but can no longer be dismissed as negligible. (PDF contains 31 pages)

Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Developing alternatives for optimal representation of seafloor habitats and associated communities in Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary

The implementation of various types of marine protected areas is one of several management tools available for conserving representative examples of the biological diversity within marine ecosystems in general and National Marine Sanctuaries in particular. However, deciding where and how many sites to establish within a given area is frequently hampered by incomplete knowledge of the distribution of organisms and an understanding of the potential tradeoffs that would allow planners to address frequently competing interests in an objective manner. Fortunately, this is beginning to change. Recent studies on the continental shelf of the northeastern United States suggest that substrate and water mass characteristics are highly correlated with the composition of benthic communities and may therefore, serve as proxies for the distribution of biological biodiversity. A detailed geo-referenced interpretative map of major sediment types within Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS) has recently been developed, and computer-aided decision support tools have reached new levels of sophistication. We demonstrate the use of simulated annealing, a type of mathematical optimization, to identify suites of potential conservation sites within SBNMS that equally represent 1) all major sediment types and 2) derived habitat types based on both sediment and depth in the smallest amount of space. The Sanctuary was divided into 3610 0.5 min2 sampling units. Simulations incorporated constraints on the physical dispersion of sampling units to varying degrees such that solutions included between one and four site clusters. Target representation goals were set at 5, 10, 15, 20, and 25 percent of each sediment type, and 10 and 20 percent of each habitat type. Simulations consisted of 100 runs, from which we identified the best solution (i.e., smallest total area) and four nearoptimal alternates. We also plotted total instances in which each sampling unit occurred in solution sets of the 100 runs as a means of gauging the variety of spatial configurations available under each scenario. Results suggested that the total combined area needed to represent each of the sediment types in equal proportions was equal to the percent representation level sought. Slightly larger areas were required to represent all habitat types at the same representation levels. Total boundary length increased in direct proportion to the number of sites at all levels of representation for simulations involving sediment and habitat classes, but increased more rapidly with number of sites at higher representation levels. There were a large number of alternate spatial configurations at all representation levels, although generally fewer among one and two versus three- and four-site solutions. These differences were less pronounced among simulations targeting habitat representation, suggesting that a similar degree of flexibility is inherent in the spatial arrangement of potential protected area systems containing one versus several sites for similar levels of habitat representation. We attribute these results to the distribution of sediment and depth zones within the Sanctuary, and to the fact that even levels of representation were sought in each scenario. (PDF contains 33 pages.)

Recreational anglers' valuation of near-shore marine fisheries in Florida

This report describes and summarizes the results from a state-wide survey of Florida resident saltwater anglers. The survey was designed to provide estimates of the economic value anglers place on marginal changes in management of selected near-shore marine species. The Contingent valuation method was used to elicit angler willingness to pay for changes in management for redfish, seatrout , mullet, sheepshead, pompano. and king mackerel. Contingent valuation is a process in which respondents are presented with a detailed scenario that describes an opportunity to express their willingness to pay for a proposed change in current conditions. The process consists of three parts. First. the change in current conditions, or the "good" to be valued is described. Second, the payment method is described. The payment method is usually closely related to typical methods of buying goods similar to the one to be valued. Finally. the respondent is asked how much they would pay for the good described in the scenario. A special saltwater fishing license stamp that would allow the holder to take advantage of the described management change was used as a payment mechanism. (PDF contains 147 pages.)

Predictions of fish yields and the status of the Kainji Lake fishery, 1998

Length frequency data was collected for the 6 main species from the Kainji Lake fishery for up to 16 months. Growth parameters were estimated and used for virtual - population and length based cohort analysis. The results from cohort analysis suggest that before the ban on beach seines the maximum economic yield from the fishery was overshot by 70%. Yield per recruit analysis showed that the fish are caught far below their optimum size. Fishing gears and the timing responsible for this early mortality have been identified. After the eradication of seines from the lake a 10% increase in total catch revenue can be expected from the fishery. This is equivalent to an increase in income of Naira 18,300 per annum for each fishing entrepreneur using other methods. A scenario for the regulation of cast net mesh size together with the ban of beach seines has been presented. A further increase of Naira 142 million (N25,500 per entrepreneur) can be anticipated if this is implemented by the Kainji Lake Fisheries Management and Conservation Unit. It is expected that the annual increase in fishing effort presently experienced will cause future yields to decline. The rate of the decline has been reduced by the eradication of the beach seine fishery and will further fall if the minimum mesh size for cast nets is implemented. A recommendation is made to the Kainji Lake Fisheries Management and Conservation Unit to first consolidate the beach seine ban and then to implement a ban of undersized cast nets. (PDF contains 70 pages)

"Global Change" und das Meer als Nahrungsquelle

The potential importance of marine produetion as a protein ressource for a growing human population can hardly be overestimated. Climatic changes in the marine environment may affect marine production in a significant way. Increasing levels of UV-B may decrease primary production and thus diminish the food base for harvestable marine ressources. Direct effects on early stages of fishes may occur. Temperature changes can lead to additional mortality in the early phase of life histories of fishes. In spite of the potentially negative scenario, actual effects of global change on the ressources have not been detected so far. The marine organisms dispose of a significant level of pre-adaptation to changes of environmental factors both on a seasonal and an interannual scale. Effects on marine life may therefore be less dramatic than those on terrestrial systems, which are more directly linked with the exponentially growing human population.

Changes in the phytoplankton

An article discussing changes observed in phytoplankton of the Lake District. An overview is given of previous phytoplankton studies undertaken in the area, detailing some changes found in various waterbodies. Water quality changes in Lake Windermere are mentioned, including the gradual increase of dissolved organic matter (DOM), believed to be caused by the increase of sewage to the lake. The lakes in the Alps are given as an example of a similar anthropogenic pollution scenario. The treatment of a Lake District tarn with bone meal is described. The article goes on to discuss the composition of plankton throughout the year under a variety of climatic conditions. A figure shows seasonal variation in the consistuents of phytoplankton in Windermere (north basin).