Severe droughts reduce estuarine primary productivity with cascading effects on higher trophic levels

Using a 10-yr time-series data set, we analyzed the effects of two severe droughts on water-quality and ecosystem processes in a temperate, eutrophic estuary (Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina). During the droughts, dissolved inorganic nitrogen concentrations were on average 46–68% lower than the long-term mean due to reduced riverine input. Phytoplankton productivity and biomass were slightly below average for most of the estuary during a spring–autumn drought in 2002, but were dramatically lower than average throughout the estuary during an autumn–winter drought in 2007–2008. Droughts affected upper trophic levels through alteration of both habitat condition (i.e., bottom-water dissolved oxygen levels) and food availability. Bottomwater dissolved oxygen levels were near or slightly above average during the 2002 drought and during summer 2007. Concomitant with these modest improvements in bottom-water oxygen condition, fish kills were greatly reduced relative to the long-term average. Low-oxygen bottom-water conditions were more pronounced during summer 2008 in the latter stages of the 2007–2008 drought, and mesozooplankton abundances were eight-fold lower in summer 2008 than during nondrought years. Below-average mesozooplankton abundances persisted for well over 1 yr beyond cessation of the drought. Significant fish kills were observed in summer 2008 and 2009, perhaps due to the synergistic effects of hypoxia and reduced food availability. These results indicate that droughts can exert both ephemeral and prolonged multiyear influence on estuarine ecosystem processes and provide a glimpse into the future, when many regions of the world are predicted to face increased drought frequency and severity due to climate change.

Severe decline in abundance of the red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) population off the southeastern United States

Status of the southeastern U.S. stock of red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) was estimated from fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data, 1972–97. Annual population numbers and fishing mortality rates at age were estimated from virtual population analysis (VPA) calibrated with fishery-independent data. For the VPA, a primary matrix of catch at age was based on age-length keys from fishery-independent samples; an alternate matrix was based on fishery-dependent keys. Additional estimates of stock status were obtained from a surplus-production model, also calibrated with fishery-independent indices of abundance. Results describe a dramatic increase in exploitation of this stock and concomitant decline in abundance. Estimated fully recruited fishing mortality rate (F) from the primary catch matrix increased from 0.10/yr in 1975 to 0.88/yr in 1997, and estimated static spawning potential ratio (SPR) declined from about 67% to about 18%. Estimated recruitment to age 1 declined from a peak of 3.0 million fish in 1973–74 to 94,000 fish in 1997, a decline of 96.9%. Estimated spawning-stock biomass declined from a peak of 3530 t in 1979 to 397 t in 1997, a decline of 88.8%. Results from the alternate catch matrix were similar. Retrospective patterns in the VPA suggest that the future estimates of this population decline will be severe, but may be less than present estimates. Long-term and marked declines in recruitment, spawning stock, and catch per unit of effort (both fishery-derived and fishery-independent)are consistent with severe overexploitation during a period of reduced recruitment. Although F prior to 1995 has generally been estimated at or below the current management criterion for overfishing (F equivalent to SPR=35%), the recent spawning-stock biomass is well below the biomass that could support maximum sustainable yield. Significant reductions in fishing mortality will be needed for rebuilding the southeastern U.S. stock.