A probability-based approach to setting annual catch levels.

The requirement of setting annual catch limits to prevent overfishing has been added to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act of 2006 (MSRA). Because this requirement is new, a body of applied scientific practice for deriving annual catch limits and accompanying targets does not yet exist. This article demonstrates an approach to setting levels of catch that is intended to keep the probability of future overfishing at a preset low level. The proposed framework is based on stochastic projection with uncertainty in population dynamics. The framework extends common projection methodology by including uncertainty in the limit reference point and in management implementation, and by making explicit the risk of overfishing that managers consider acceptable. The approach is illustrated with application to gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a grouper that inhabits the waters off the southeastern United States. Although devised to satisfy new legislation of the MSRA, the framework has potential application to any fishery where the management goal is to limit the risk of overfishing by controlling catch.

Ecological risk assessment of pollution in sediment on benthic fauna in coast of Bandar Abbas

Ecological risk assessment is determination of the probability of an adverse effect occurring to an ecological system. This investigation was carried out to assess the ecological risk of sediment in coast of Bandar Abbass in 9 stations including Shilat Jetty, Hotel Amin, Poshte-Shahr, Souro, Bahonar Jetty, Powerhouse, Refinery and Rajaee Jetty from autumn 2013 to summer 2014. Results showed that Polychaete with 1177 , 1109 , 414 , 573 , ind.m2 in autumn 91 , winter 91 , spring 92 and summer 92 were the most abundant in frequency respectively. Among ecological indices, the Margalof that ranged from 4 to 7 was in a good situation while Shanoon and Berger – Parker with 1.2 (at most) and 0.32 (at least) respectively indicated an environment with probable stress. Heavy metal distribution obtained as Cd>Pb>Cu>Zn in sediment. In tissue, the distribution of heavy metals were as Crab>polychaete>Bivalve>gastropod for Pb, Gastropod>Bivalve>Polychaete>Crab for Cd, Gastropod>Crab>Polychaete>Bivalve for Cu and Gastropod>Bivalve>Crab>Polychaete for Zn. Maximum and Minimum of TOM obtained 10.16 and 1.96 percent in Posht-e-Shahr and shilat Jetty respectively and clay was the dominant grain in most area. Bioaccumulation coefficient of Zn and Cu was high in all stations. Igeo as a single index was high for Cd indicating a high risk in all stations. Potential Ecological Risk was high for Cu and Zn and goes increasingly from shilat Jetty to Rajee Jetty but goes down for Pb. Pollution index for Cu and Pb was nearly the same as Potential Ecological Risk but for Zn goes constantly. Among PAH, 5-ring and 6-ring PAhs were more concentrate comparison to other compounds in sediment. 2-ring and 3-ring, 3-ring, 4-ring and 5-ring and 5-ring PAHs were more concentrate in Gastropod, Bivalve, Crab and Polychaete respectively. HI as an index of PAH obtained 1. Ecological Risk Indices showed that the heavy metals are a serious risk for invertebrate in sediment but PAHs are not a risk for benthic community.

Oil spill environmental risk assessment of stationary sources in offshore zones (Innovating a mathematical model)

Nowadays, risks arising from the rapid development of oil and gas industries are significantly increasing. As a result, one of the main concerns of either industrial or environmental managers is the identification and assessment of such risks in order to develop and maintain appropriate proactive measures. Oil spill from stationary sources in offshore zones is one of the accidents resulting in several adverse impacts on marine ecosystems. Considering a site's current situation and relevant requirements and standards, risk assessment process is not only capable of recognizing the probable causes of accidents but also of estimating the probability of occurrence and the severity of consequences. In this way, results of risk assessment would help managers and decision makers create and employ proper control methods. Most of the represented models for risk assessment of oil spills are achieved on the basis of accurate data bases and analysis of historical data, but unfortunately such data bases are not accessible in most of the zones, especially in developing countries, or else they are newly established and not applicable yet. This issue reveals the necessity of using Expert Systems and Fuzzy Set Theory. By using such systems it will be possible to formulize the specialty and experience of several experts and specialists who have been working in petroliferous areas for several years. On the other hand, in developing countries often the damages to environment and environmental resources are not considered as risk assessment priorities and they are approximately under-estimated. For this reason, the proposed model in this research is specially addressing the environmental risk of oil spills from stationary sources in offshore zones.