Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Vegetation response to cattail management at Cheyenne Bottoms, Kansas

Dense, monospecific cattail (Typha spp.) stands are a problem in many prairie wetlands because they alter habitat structure and function, resulting in a decrease in use by wildlife species. Cheyenne Bottoms Wildlife Area, a Wetland of International Importance in central Kansas, has experienced a large increase in cattails and a subsequent decrease in migratory wetland bird use. As a consequence, intensive cattail management is practiced. We assessed the effectiveness of prescribed burning, discing following prescribed burning, and cattle grazing following prescribed burning at two stocking rates of 5 and 20 head per 11 ha in suppressing cattail, as well as the effects of these treatments on non-cattail vegetation.

Microorganisms of the East African Great Lakes and their response to environmental changes

We have reviewed the phytoplankton composition and succession in the East African Great Lakes, their response to environmental changes, and the communities of microorganisms of the microbial food web. Recent studies in some great lakes, as well as progress in understanding phytoplankton succession and response to environmental factors, enable us to update knowledge of the phytoplankton ecology of these lakes. In particular, we present information indicating that phytoplankton composition in lakes Tanganyika and Kivu may reflect recent changes as a result of global warming or species introduction. We also stress the importance of microbes (at the base of the food web) in these systems and suggest that the microbial food web, which has been mostly overlooked until recently, may play a very large role in determining productivity and nutrient cycling in these large lakes.

Flatfish herding behavior in response to trawl sweeps: a comparison of diel responses to conventional sweeps and elevated sweeps

Commercial bottom trawls often have sweeps to herd fish into the net. Elevation of the sweeps off the seaf loor may reduce seafloor disturbance, but also reduce herding effectiveness. In both field and laboratory experiments, we examined the behavior of flatfish in response to sweeps. We tested the hypotheses that 1) sweeps are more effective at herding flatfish during the day than at night, when fish are unable to see approaching gear, and that 2) elevation of sweeps off the seafloor reduces herding during the day, but not at night. In sea trials, day catches were greater than night catches for four out of six flatfish species examined. The elevation of sweeps 10 cm significantly decreased catches during the day, but not at night. Laboratory experiments revealed northern rock sole (Lepidopsetta polyxystra) and Pacific halibut (Hippoglossus stenolepis) were more likely to be herded by the sweep in the light, whereas in the dark they tended to pass under or over the sweep. In the light, elevation of the sweep reduced herding, and more fish passed under the sweep. In contrast, in the dark, sweep elevation had little effect upon the number of fish that exhibited herding behavior. The results of both field and laboratory experiments were consistent with the premise that vision is the principle sensory input that controls fish behavior and orientation to trawl gear, and gear performance will differ between conditions where flatfish can see, in contrast to where they cannot see, the approaching gear.

Biological response to changes in climate patterns: population increases of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) in Texas bays and estuaries

The increase in the abundance of gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus) in Texas bays and estuaries over the past 30 years is correlated to increased wintertime surface water temperatures. Trends in the relative abundance of gray snapper are evaluated by using monthly fishery-independent monitoring data from each of the seven major estuaries along the Texas coast from 1978 through 2006. Environmental conditions during this period demonstrated increasing annual sea surface temperatures, although this increase was not seasonally uniform. The largest proportion of temperature increases was attributed to higher winter temperature minimums since 1993. Positive phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation, resulting in wetter, warmer winters in the eastern United States have occurred nearly uninterrupted since the late 1970s, and unprecedented positive index values occurred between 1989 and 1995. Increases in water temperature in Texas estuaries, beginning in the early 1990s, are postulated to provide both favorable over-wintering conditions for the newly settled juveniles and increased recruitment success. In the absence of cold winters, this species has established semipermanent estuarine populations across the entire Texas coast. A shift to negative phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation will likely result in returns to colder winter temperature minimums that could reverse any recent population gains.

A Demographic Profile of Participants in Two Gulf of Mexico Inshore Shrimp Fisheries and Their Response to the Texas Closure

A social study of the shrimp fisheries of Galveston Bay, Tex., and Calcasieu Lake, La., was made during the summer of 1987 to examine the impacts of the seasonal closure of the Federal waters off Texas and to understand the infrastructure and demographic processes of these two diverse fisheries. Survey instruments were administered to 159 shrimp boat captains: 89 from Galveston Bay and 70 from Calcasieu Lake. Shrimp-house owners were interviewed in each region as well. The results suggest that the inshore fisheries (i.e., shrimpers and shrimp houses) are distinct from the offshore fisheries. The infrastructure of the two inshore fisheries examined differ in that the market distribution of shrimp from Galveston Bay was more diffuse than from Calcasieu Lake. Much more of the shrimp harvested from Galveston Bay was channelled into the surrounding community than from Calcasieu Lake. The distribution of age,years as a commercial fisherman, and family involvement in fishing suggest that participation in Calcasieu Lake's and Galveston Bay's inshore fisheries have expanded concurrent with declining economies. While overall the Texas closure had little impact on either of the inshore fisheries, the Galveston Bay shrimpers experienced more of a direct impact on their livelihood than Calcasieu Lake shrimpers.

High-resolution natural recording systems: intercomparisons of the response to interannual climatic variability [abstract]

The goal of this work is to examine the properties of recording mechanisms which are common to continuously recording high-resolution natural systems in which climatic signals are imprinted and preserved as proxy records. These systems produce seasonal structures as an indirect response to climatic variability over the annual cycle. We compare the proxy records from four different high-resolution systems: the Quelccaya ice cap of the Peruvian Andes; composite tree ring growth from southern California and the southwestern United States; and the marine varve sedimentation systems in the Santa Barbara basin (off California, United States) and in the Gulf of California, Mexico. An important focus of this work is to indicate how the interannual climatic signal is recorded in a variety of different natural systems with vastly different recording mechanisms and widely separated in space. These high-resolution records are the products of natural processes which should be comparable, to some degree, to human-engineered systems developed to transmit and record physical quantities. We therefore present a simple analogy of a data recording system as a heuristic model to provide some unifying concepts with which we may better understand the formation of the records. This analogy assumes special significance when we consider that natural proxy records are the principal means to extend our knowledge of climatic variability into the past, beyond the limits of instrumentally recorded data.

Terrestrial ecosystem response to interdecadal climate variability in the western United States [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): We argue that the most important climatically-driven terrestrial ecosystem changes are concentrated in annual- to decadal-scale episodic events. These rapid ecosystem responses to climate change are manifested as regionally synchronized disturbance events (eg, floods, fires, and insect outbreaks) and increased drought-caused plant mortality rates.

Geographic patterns in the lag of temperature response to insolation for El Niño vs. La Niña conditions [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The most important control on the annual cycle of temperature is insolation, with secondary influences from terms related to moisture, yet direct statistical analysis of the moisture-driven modulations (such as El Niño) of the response of temperature to insolation are not available. We have examined one aspect of the relationship between insolation and the instrumental record of maximum daily temperature - the lag between the two - at 252 stations in the western United States.

River salinity variations in response to discharge: examples from the western United States during the early 1900s

Major controls on river salinity (total dissolved solids) in the western United States are climate, geology, and human activity. Climate, in general, influences soil-river salinity via salt-balance variations. When climate becomes wetter, river discharge increases and soil-river salinity decreases; when climate becomes drier river discharge decreases and soil-river salinity increases. This study characterizes the river salinity response to discharge using statistical-dynamic methods. An exploratory analysis of river salinity, using early 1900s water quality surveys in the western United States, shows much river salinity variability is in response to storm and annual discharge. Presumably this is because river discharge is largely supported by surface flow.

Bacterial flora of fresh and iced Indian mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta) and its response to chlortetracycline (CTC) treatment

Quantitative and qualitative studies on the bacterial flora of fresh Indian mackerel (Rastrelliger kanagurta) have been made. The total native flora as well as 5 ppm CTC insensitive flora of the fish showed variations with season. About 90% of the fresh fish flora was sensitive to 5 ppm CTC. The natural flora of the fresh fish consisted of Vibrios, Pseudomonas, Achromobacter, Flavobacterium, Corynebacteria, Micrococci, Bacillus and yeasts. In the CTC insensitive flora, Vibrios predominated followed by yeasts. The selection of bacterial genera during storage of the fish in ice and in 5 ppm CTC incorporated ice has also been investigated. At the time of spoilage, Pseudomonas was found to be the dominant flora of the fish stored in both types of ice.