4 resultados para Reliability models in discrete time

em Aquatic Commons


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According to the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment’s chapter “Coastal Systems” (Agardy and Alder 2005), 40% of the world population falls within 100 km of the coast. Agardy and Alder report that population densities in coastal regions are three times those of inland regions and demographic forecasts suggest a continued rise in coastal populations. These high population levels can be partially traced to the abundance of ecosystem services provided in the coastal zone. While populations benefit from an abundance of services, population pressure also degrades existing services and leads to increased susceptibility of property and human life to natural hazards. In the face of these challenges, environmental administrators on the coast must pursue agendas which reflect the difficult balance between private and public interests. These decisions include maintaining economic prosperity and personal freedoms, protecting or enhancing the existing flow of ecosystem services to society, and mitigating potential losses from natural hazards. (PDF contains 5 pages)

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The Water Framework Directive (WFD; European Commission 2000) is a framework for European environmental legislation that aims at improving water quality by using an integrated approach to implement the necessary societal and technical measures. Assessments to guide, support, monitor and evaluate policies, such as the WFD, require scientific approaches which integrate biophysical and human aspects of ecological systems and their interactions, as outlined by the International Council for Science (2002). These assessments need to be based on sound scientific principles and address the environmental problems in a holistic way. End-users need help to select the most appropriate methods and models. Advice on the selection and use of a wide range of water quality models has been developed within the project Benchmark Models for the Water Framework Directive (BMW). In this article, the authors summarise the role of benchmarking in the modelling process and explain how such an archive of validated models can be used to support the implementation of the WFD.

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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Recently, paleoceanographers have been challenged to produce reliable proxies of climate variables that can be incorporated into climate models. In developing proxies using time series of annual radiolarian species fluxes from Santa Barbara Basin, we identify groups of species associated with years of extreme sea surface temperatures and sea level heights.