18 resultados para Regional population forecasting, service provision, box-Jenkins model

em Aquatic Commons


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Listening to people, especially those who are poor, and involving them in policy making and decisions about service delivery processes are logical steps in building better services and improving policies aimed at poverty alleviation. This case describes a facilitated advocacy that helped to negotiate and support a role for poor people who farm and fish, to contribute recommendations for changes in services and policies that impact on their lives. The national Government of India’s Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying and the Indian Council for Agricultural Research, both in the capital Delhi, have been linking with farmers and fishers and state government officials in the eastern states of Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal, in partnership with the STREAM Initiative of the intergovernmental Network of Aquaculture Centers in Asia Pacific and with the support of the UK Government Department for International Development, Natural resources Systems Program supporting farmers to have a voice(13 p.)

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Long-term changes in chlorophyll production were predicted from environmental variables for the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers and Suisun Bay using Box-Jenkins transfer function models. Data used for the analyses were collected semimonthly or monthly between 1971 and 1987. Transfer function models developed to describe changes in chlorophyll production over time as a function of environmental variables were characterized by lagged responses and described between 39 and 51 percent of the data variation. Significant correlations between environmental variables and the California climate index (CA SLP) were used to develop a conceptual model of the link between regional climate and estuarine production.

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Recommendations for changes to service provision and fisheries policy in support of poverty alleviation emerged recently in India from a process know as facilitated advocacy (see Case Study SI 2) that helped to negotiate and support a role for poor people and their service providers, to contribute to changes in services and policies. Two of the key recommendations to emerge from farmers and fishers, which were prioritized by Fisheries Departments, were to change the way that information is made available and to simplify procedures for accessing government schemes and bank loans. This case which identifies the origin of these recommendations to change the way that information is made available, shows how different models of the concept have emerged, and follows the development of the One-stop Aqua Shops (OAS) in the eastern Indian states of Jharkhand, Orissa and West Bengal, that represent a new and vital tier in communications in aquaculture. (12 p.)

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This report describes the working of National Centers for Coastal Ocean Service (NCCOS) Wave Exposure Model (WEMo) capable of predicting the exposure of a site in estuarine and closed water to local wind generated waves. WEMo works in two different modes: the Representative Wave Energy (RWE) mode calculates the exposure using physical parameters like wave energy and wave height, while the Relative Exposure Index (REI) empirically calculates exposure as a unitless index. Detailed working of the model in both modes and their procedures are described along with a few sample runs. WEMo model output in RWE mode (wave height and wave energy) is compared against data collected from wave sensors near Harkers Island, North Carolina for validation purposes. Computed results agreed well with the wave sensors data indicating that WEMo can be an effective tool in predicting local wave energy in closed estuarine environments. (PDF contains 31 pages)

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Variation at 14 microsatellite loci was examined in 34 chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) populations from Russia and evaluated for its use in the determination of population structure and stock composition in simulated mixed-stock fishery samples. The genetic differentiation index (Fst) over all populations and loci was 0.017, and individual locus values ranged from 0.003 to 0.054. Regional population structure was observed, and populations from Primorye, Sakhalin Island, and northeast Russia were the most distinct. Microsatellite variation provided evidence of a more fine-scale population structure than those that had previously been demonstrated with other genetic-based markers. Analysis of simulated mixed-stock samples indicated that accurate and precise regional estimates of stock composition were produced when the microsatellites were used to estimate stock compositions. Microsatellites can be used to determine stock composition in geographically separate Russian coastal chum salmon fisheries and provide a greater resolution of stock composition and population structure than that previously provided with other techniques.

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EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Current projections of the response of the biosphere to global climatic change indicate as much as 50 to 90% spatial displacement of extratropical biomes. The mechanism of spatial shift could be dominated either by competitive displacement of northern biomes by southern biomes or by drought-induced dieback of areas susceptible to change. The current suite of global biosphere models cannot distinguish between these two processes, hence the need for a mechanistically based biome model. The first steps have been taken toward development of a rule-based, mechanistic model of regional biomes at a continental scale. ... The model is in an early stage of development and will require several enhancements, including: explicit simulation of potential evapotranspiration, extension to boreal and tropical biomes, a shift from steady-state to transient dynamics, and validation on other continents.

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*Table of Contents* Sustainable aquaculture Peter Edwards writes on rural aquaculture: Small-scale pond culture in Bangladesh. People in aquaculture Community based aquaculture - issues and challenges H.K. De and G.S. Saha. Aquaculture as an action programme: An exercise in building confidence and self worth. B. Shanthi, V.S. Chandrasekaran, M. Kailasam, M. Muralidar, T. Ravisankar,.C. Saradad and M. Krishnan The STREAM Column: Transforming policy recommendations into pro-poor service provision Graham Haylor. Research & farming techniques. Grow out of juvenile spotted Babylon to marketable size in earthen ponds II: Polyculture with seabass. S. Kritsanapuntu, N. Chaitanawisuti, W. Santhaweesuk and Y. Natsukari Asia-Pacific Marine Finfish Aquaculture Network. Influence of economic conditions of importing nations and unforeseen global events on grouper markets. Sih Yang Sim. Present status of hatchery technology for cobia in Vietnam. Nhu Van Can. Report on grouper hatchery training course in Indonesia. Nguyen Quoc Thai. Aquatic animal health. Biosecured and improved penaeid shrimp production through organic nursery raceway system in India. Felix. S. and M. Samaya Kannan. Management of monogenean parasites in brackishwater finfish. K.P. Jithendran, M. Natarajan and I.S. Azad. Vembanad Lake: A potential spawner bank of the giant freshwater prawn Macrobrachium rosenbergii on the southwest coast of India. Paramaraj Balamurugan, Pitchaimuthu Mariappan & Chellam Balasundaram.

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Population pressure in coastal New Hampshire challenges land use decision-making and threatens the ecological health and functioning of Great Bay, an estuary designated as both a NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve and an EPA National Estuary Program site. Regional population in the seacoast has quadrupled in four decades resulting in sprawl, increased impervious surface cover and larger lot rural development (Zankel, et.al., 2006). All of Great Bay’s contributing watersheds face these challenges, resulting in calls for strategies addressing growth, development and land use planning. The communities within the Lamprey River watershed comprise this case study. Do these towns communicate upstream and downstream when making land use decisions? Are cumulative effects considered while debating development? Do town land use groups consider the Bay or the coasts in their decision-making? This presentation, a follow-up from the TCS 2008 conference and a completed dissertation, will discuss a novel social science approach to analyze and understand the social landscape of land use decision-making in the towns of the Lamprey River watershed. The methods include semi-structured interviews with GIS based maps in a grounded theory analytical strategy. The discussion will include key findings, opportunities and challenges in moving towards a watershed approach for land use planning. This presentation reviews the results of the case study and developed methodology, which can be used in watersheds elsewhere to map out the potential for moving towns towards EBM and watershed-scaled, land use planning. (PDF contains 4 pages)

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Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

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The status of the Gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, fishery was assessed with purse-seine landings data from 1946 to 1997 and port sampling data from 1964 to 1997. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, biological reference points for fi shing mortality from yield per recruit and maximum spawning potential analyses, spawner-recruit relationships, and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). The separable virtual population approach was used for the period 1976–97 (augmented by earlier analyses for 1964–75) to obtain point estimates of stock size, recruits to age 1, spawning stock size, and fishing mortality rates. Exploitation rates for age-1 fi sh ranged between 11% and 45%, for age-2 fi sh between 32% and 72%, and for age-3 fi sh between 32% and 76%. Biological reference points from yield per recruit (F0.1: 1.5–2.5/yr) and spawning potential ratio (F20: 1.3–1.9/yr and F30: 0.8–1.2/yr) were obtained for comparison with recent estimates of F (0.6–0.8/yr). Recent spawning stock estimates (as biomass or eggs) are above the long-term average, while recent recruits to age 1 are comparable to the long-term average. Parameters from Ricker-type spawner-recruit relations were estimated, although considerable unexplained variability remained. Recent survival to age-1 recruitment has generally been below that expected based on the Ricker spawner-recruit relation. Estimates of long-term MSY from PRODFIT and ASPIC estimation of production model ranged between 717,000 t and 753,000 t, respectively. Declines in landings between 1988 and 1992 raised concerns about the status of the Gulf menhaden stock. Landings have fl uctuated without trend since 1992, averaging about 571,000 t. However, Gulf menhaden are short lived and highly fecund. Thus, variation in recruitment to age 1, largely mediated by environmental conditions, infl uences fi shing success over the next two years (as age-1 and age-2 fi sh). Comparisons of recent estimates of fi shing mortality to biological reference points do not suggest overfishing. (PDF file contains 22 pages.)

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The status of the gulf menhaden, Brevoortia patronus, fishery was assessed with purseseine landing data from 1946 to 1992 and port sampling data from 1964 to 1992. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, biological reference points for fishing mortality from yield per recruit and maximum spawning potential analyses, spawner-recruit relationships, and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Virtual population approaches were used to obtain point estimates of stock size, recruits to age I, spawning stock size, and fishing mortality rates. Exploitation rates ranged between 14% and 45% for age-1 fish, between 30% and 72% for age-2 fish, and between 36% and 71% for age-3 fish. Biological reference points from yield per recruit (FO. I: 0.7-0.9 yr-1) and maximum spawning potential (F20: 1.62.9 yr-l and F30: 1.0-2.1 yr-1) were obtained for comparison with recent estimates of F (0.4-0.8 yr-l). Parameters from Ricker-type spawner-recruit relations were estimated, although considerable unexplained variability remained. Estimates of long-term MSY from fits of the generalized production model ranged between 664,000 metric tons (t) and 897,000 t. Declines in landings since 1988 have raised concerns about the status of the gulf menhaden stock. However, gulf menhaden are short lived and highly fecund. Thus, variation in recruitment to age 1 largely mediated by environmental conditions influences fishing success over the next two years (as age-1 and age-2 fish). Comparisons of recent estimates of fishing mortality to biological reference points do not suggest overfishing. (PDF file contains 26 pages.)

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ENGLISH: Mathematical documentation of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and surface tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is described. Example runs of the model are presented and discussed, and the sensitivity of the model output to changes in various parameters is examined. SPANISH: Se describe la documentación matemática de TUNP0P, un modelo computador de simulación basado en la edad de la población del atún aleta amarilla y de la pesca atunera epipelágíca del Océano Pacífico oriental. Se presentan y se discuten ejemplos de las pasadas del modelo, y se examina la sensibilidad de los resultados de salida con relación a los cambios de varios parámetros. (PDF contains 47 pages.)

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Reef fishes are conspicuous and essential components of coral reef ecosystems and economies of southern Florida and the United States Virgin Islands (USVI). Throughout Florida and the USVI, reef fish are under threat from a variety of anthropogenic and natural stressors including overfishing, habitat loss, and environmental changes. The South Florida/Caribbean Network (SFCN), a unit of the National Park Service (NPS), is charged with monitoring reef fishes, among other natural and cultural resources, within six parks in the South Florida - Caribbean region (Biscayne National Park, BISC; Buck Island Reef National Monument, BUIS; Dry Tortugas National Park, DRTO; Everglades National Park, EVER; Salt River Bay National Historic Park and Ecological Preserve, SARI; Virgin Islands National Park, VIIS). Monitoring data is intended for park managers who are and will continue to be asked to make decisions to balance environmental protection, fishery sustainability and park use by visitors. The range and complexity of the issues outlined above, and the need for NPS to invest in a strategy of monitoring, modeling, and management to ensure the sustainability of its precious assets, will require strategic investment in long-term, high-precision, multispecies reef fish data that increases inherent system knowledge and reduces uncertainty. The goal of this guide is to provide the framework for park managers and researchers to create or enhance a reef fish monitoring program within areas monitored by the SFCN. The framework is expected to be applicable to other areas as well, including the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Virgin Islands Coral Reef National Monument. The favored approach is characterized by an iterative process of data collection, dataset integration, sampling design analysis, and population and community assessment that evaluates resource risks associated with management policies. Using this model, a monitoring program can adapt its survey methods to increase accuracy and precision of survey estimates as new information becomes available, and adapt to the evolving needs and broadening responsibilities of park management.