Evaluating methods for estimating rare events with zero-heavy data: a simulation model estimating sea turtle bycatch in the pelagic longline fishery

Estimating rare events from zero-heavy data (data with many zero values) is a common challenge in fisheries science and ecology. For example, loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and leatherback sea turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) account for less than 1% of total catch in the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. Nevertheless, the Southeast Fisheries Science Center (SEFSC) of the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) is charged with assessing the effect of this fishery on these federally protected species. Annual estimates of loggerhead and leatherback bycatch in a fishery can affect fishery management and species conservation decisions. However, current estimates have wide confidence intervals, and their accuracy is unknown. We evaluate 3 estimation methods, each at 2 spatiotemporal scales, in simulations of 5 spatial scenarios representing incidental capture of sea turtles by the U.S. Atlantic pelagic longline fishery. The delta-log normal method of estimating bycatch for calendar quarter and fishing area strata was the least biased estimation method in the spatial scenarios believed to be most realistic. This result supports the current estimation procedure used by the SEFSC.

Flowering in British Lemna: A rare, cyclic or simply overlooked phenomenon?

It is largely presumed that reproduction in British Lemna, as in other British Lemnaceae, is almost entirely asexual, with new daughter fronds being produced from the side pouches of older mother fronds. Sexual reproduction is considered to be a rather rare event or even absent and because of this rarity the sexual features of Lemna, such as anthers and fruit, are often considered to be of little taxonomic value. It was with some surprise, therefore, that widespread flowering was observed in all British Lemna during the summer of 1995. Initial observations in Shropshire during June recorded flowers in minor and trisulca, with fruit production in trisulca. L.gibba, minor and minuta were noted as being in flower on several occasions in Kent, during July and August, probably fruit production occurring in both species. To what extent these events are truly representative of the sexual reproduction rate of British Lemna on a year-to-year basis, or simply reflect the unusually high summer temperatures of 1995, is unclear.

Report on Marine Mammal Unusual Mortality Event UMESE0501Sp: Multispecies Mass Stranding of Pilot Whales (Globicephala macrorhynchus), Minke Whale (Balaenoptera acutorostrata), and Dwarf Sperm Whales (Kogia sima) in North Carolina on 15-16 January 2005

On 15-16 January 2005, three offshore species of cetaceans (33 short-finned pilot whales, Globicephala macrorhynchus, one minke whale, Balaenoptera acutorostrata, and two dwarf sperm whales, Kogia sima) stranded alive on the beaches of North Carolina. The pilot whales stranded near Oregon Inlet, the minke whale in northern North Carolina, and the dwarf sperm whales near Cape Hatteras. Live strandings of three species in one weekend was unique in North Carolina and qualified as an Unusual Mortality Event. Gross necropsies were conducted on 16-17 January 2005 on 27 pilot whales, two dwarf sperm whales, and the minke whale. Samples were collected for clinical pathology, parasitology, gross pathology, histopathology, microbiology and serology. There was variation in the number of animals sampled for each collection type, however, due to carcasses washing off the beach or degradation in carcass condition during the course of the response. Comprehensive histologic examination was conducted on 16 pilot whales, both dwarf sperm whales, and the minke whale. Limited organ or only head tissue suites were obtained from nine pilot whales. Histologic examination of tissues began in February 2005 and concluded in December 2005 when final sampling was concluded. Neither the pilot whales nor dwarf sperm whales were emaciated although none had recently ingested prey in their stomachs. The minke whale was emaciated; it was likely a dependent calf that became separated from the female. Most serum biochemistry abnormalities appear to have resulted from the stranding and indicated deteriorating condition from being on land for an extended period. Three pilot whales had clinical evidence of pre-existing systemic inflammation, which was supported by histopathologic findings. Although gross and histologic lesions involving all organ systems were noted, consistent lesions were not observed across species. Verminous pterygoid sinusitis and healed fishery interactions were seen in pilot whales but neither of these changes were causes of debilitation or death. In three pilot whales and one dwarf sperm whale there was evidence of clinically significant disease in postcranial tissues which led to chronic debilitation. Cardiovascular disease was present in one pilot whale and one dwarf sperm whale; musculoskeletal disease and intra-abdominal granulomas were present in two pilot whales. These lesions were possible, but not definitive, causal factors in the stranding. Remaining lesions were incidental or post-stranding. The minke whale and three of five tested pilot whales had positive morbillivirus titers (≥1:8 with one at >1:256), but there was no histologic evidence of active viral infection. Parasites (nematodes, cestodes, and trematodes) were collected from 26 pilot whales and two dwarf sperm whales. Sites of collection included stomach, nasal/pterygoid, peribullar sinuses, blubber, and abdominal cavity. Parasite species, locations and loads were within normal limits for free-ranging cetaceans and were not considered causative for the stranding event. Gas emboli lesions which were considered consistent with or diagnostic of sonarassociated strandings of beaked whales or small cetaceans were not found in the whales stranded as part of UMESE0501Sp. Twenty-five heads were examined with nine specific anatomic locations of interest: extramandibular fat, intramandibular fat, auditory meatus, peribullar acoustic fat, peribullar soft tissue, peribullar sinus, pterygoid sinus, melon, and brain. The common finding in all examined heads was verminous pterygoid sinusitis. Intramandibular adipose tissue reddening, typically adjacent to the vascular plexus, was observed in some individuals and could represent localized hemorrhage resulting from vascular rete rupture, hypostatic congestion, or erythrocyte rupture during the freeze/thaw cycle. One cetacean had peracute to acute subdural hemorrhage that likely occurred from thrashing on the beach post-stranding, although its occurrence prior to stranding cannot be excluded. Information provided to NMFS by the U.S. Navy indicated routine tactical mid-frequency sonar operations from individual surface vessels over relatively short durations and small spatial scales within the area and time period investigated. No marine mammals were detected by marine mammal observers on operational vessels; standard operating procedure for surface naval vessels operating mid-frequency sonar is the use of trained visual lookouts using high-powered binoculars. Sound propagation modeling using information provided to NMFS indicated that acoustic conditions in the vicinity likely depended heavily on position of the receivers (e.g., range, bearing, depth) relative to that of the sources. Absent explicit information on the location of animals meant that it was not possible to estimate received acoustic exposures from active sonar transmissions. Nonetheless, the event was associated in time and space with naval activity using mid-frequency active sonar. It also had a number of features in common (e.g., the “atypical” distribution of strandings involving multiple offshore species, all stranding alive, and without evidence of common infectious or other disease process) with other sonar-related cetacean mass stranding events. Given that this event was the only stranding of offshore species to occur within a 2-3 day period in the region on record (i.e., a very rare event), and given the occurrence of the event simultaneously in time and space with a naval exercise using active sonar, the association between the naval sonar activity and the location and timing of the event could be a causal rather than a coincidental relationship. However, evidence supporting a definitive association is lacking, and, in particular, there are differences in operational/environmental characteristics between this event and previous events where sonar has apparently played a role in marine mammal strandings. This does not preclude behavorial avoidance of noise exposure. No harmful algal blooms were present along the Atlantic coast south of the Chesapeake Bay during the months prior to the event. Environmental conditions, including strong winds, changes in upwelling- to downwelling-favorable conditions, and gently sloping bathymetry, were consistent with conditions which have been correlated with other mass strandings. In summary, we did not find commonality in gross and histologic lesions that would indicate a single cause for this stranding event. Three pilot whales and one dwarf sperm whale had debilitating conditions identified that could have contributed to stranding, one pilot whale had a debilitating condition (subdural hemorrhage) that could have been present prior to or resulting from stranding. While the pilot and dwarf sperm whale strandings may have had a common cause, the minke whale stranding was probably just coincidental. On the basis of examination of physical evidence in the affected whales, however, we cannot definitively conclude that there was or was not a causal link between anthropogenic sonar activity or environmental conditions (or a combination of these factors) and the strandings. Overall, the cause of UMESE0501Sp in North Carolina is not and likely will not be definitively known. (PDF contains 240 pages)

Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

M/V ELPIS Coral Reef Restoration Monitoring Report Monitoring Events 2004-2007 Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary, Monroe County, Florida

This document presents the results of the first three monitoring events to track the recovery of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Elpis vessel grounding incident of November 11, 1989. This grounding occurred within the boundaries of what at the time was designated the Key Largo National Marine Sanctuary (NMS), now designated the Key Largo NMS Existing Management Area within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Pursuant to the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA) 16 U.S.C. 1431 et seq., and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Protection Act (FKNMSPA) of 1990, NOAA is the federal trustee for the natural and cultural resources of the FKNMS. Under Section 312 of the NMSA, NOAA has the authority to recover monetary damages for injury, destruction, or loss of Sanctuary resources, and to use the recovered monies to restore injured or lost sanctuary resources within the FKNMS. The restoration monitoring program tracks patterns of biological recovery, determines the success of restoration measures, and assesses the resiliency to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances of the site over time. To evaluate restoration success, reference habitats adjacent to the restoration site are concurrently monitored to compare the condition of restored reef areas with natural coral reef areas unimpacted by the vessel grounding. Restoration of the site was completed September 1995, and thus far three monitoring events have occurred; one in the summer of 2004, one in the summer of 2005, and the latest in the summer of 2007. The monitoring in 2004 was in the nature of a “pilot project,” or proof of concept. Only the quantitative results of the 2005 and 2007 monitoring are presented and discussed. Monitoring has consisted of assessment of the structural stability of limestone boulders used in the restoration and comparison of the coral communities on the boulders and reference areas. Corals are divided into Gorgonians, Milleporans, and Scleractinians. Coral densities at the Restored and Reference areas for the 2005 and 2007 events are compared, and it is shown that the densities of all taxa in the Restored area are greater by 2007, though not significantly so. For the Scleractinians, number and percentage of colonies by species, as well as several common biodiversity indices are provided. The greater biodiversity of the Restored area is evidenced. Also, size-class frequency distributions for Agaricia spp. (Scleractinia) are presented. These demonstrate the approaching convergence of the Restored and Reference areas in this regard. An inter-annual comparison of densities, within both areas, for all three Orders, is presented. The most noteworthy finding was the relative consistency across time for all taxa in each area. Finally, certain anomalies regarding species settlement patterns are presented. (PDF contains 48 pages.)

M/V WELLWOOD Coral Reef Restoration Monitoring Report, Monitoring Events 2004-2006. Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Monroe County, Florida

This document presents the results of the first two monitoring events to track the recovery of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Wellwood vessel grounding incident of August 4, 1984. This grounding occurred within the boundaries of what at the time was designated the Key Largo National Marine Sanctuary (NMS), now designated the Key Largo NMS Existing Management Area within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). Pursuant to the National Marine Sanctuaries Act (NMSA) 16 U.S.C. 1431 et seq., and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Protection Act (FKNMSPA) of 1990, NOAA is the federal trustee for the natural and cultural resources of the FKNMS. Under Section 312 of the NMSA, NOAA has the authority to recover monetary damages for injury, destruction, or loss of Sanctuary resources, and to use the recovered monies to restore injured or lost sanctuary resources within the FKNMS. The restoration monitoring program tracks patterns of biological recovery, determines the success of restoration measures, and assesses the resiliency to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances of the site over time. To evaluate restoration success, reference habitats adjacent to the restoration site are concurrently monitored to compare the condition of restored reef areas with “natural” coral reef areas unimpacted by the vessel grounding or other injury. Restoration of the site was completed on July 22, 2002, and thus far two monitoring events have occurred; one in the Fall of 2004, and one in the Summer/Fall of 2006. The monitoring has consisted of: assessment of the structural stability of restoration modules and comparison of the coral recruitment conditions of the modules and reference sites. Corals are divided into Gorgonians, Milleporans, and Scleractinians and (except where noted) recruits are defined as follows: Gorgonians—maximum size (height) 150 mm at first monitoring event, 270 mm at second; Milleporans—maximum size (height) 65 mm at first event, 125 mm at second; Scleractinians—maximum size (greatest diameter) 50 mm at second event (only one species was size-classed at first event, at smaller size). Recruit densities at the restored and reference areas for each event are compared, as are size-class frequency distributions. For the Scleractinians, number and percentage of recruits by species, as well as several common biodiversity indices are provided. Finally, a qualitative comparison of recruit substrate settlement preference is indicated. Generally, results indicate that restored areas are converging on reference areas, based on almost all parameters examined, with one noted exception. Further monitoring is planned and the trends are anticipated to continue; close attention will be paid to the indicated anomaly. (PDF contains 63 pages.)

M/V CONNECTED Coral Reef Restoration Monitoring Report, Monitoring Events 2004-2005. Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Monroe County, Florida

This document presents the results of the monitoring of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Connected vessel grounding incident of March 27, 2001. This grounding occurred in Florida state waters within the boundaries of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Board of Trustees of the Internal Improvement Trust Fund of the State of Florida, (“State of Florida” or “state”) are the co-trustees for the natural resources within the FKNMS and, thus, are responsible for mediating the restoration of the damaged marine resources and monitoring the outcome of the restoration actions. The restoration monitoring program tracks patterns of biological recovery, determines the success of restoration measures, and assesses the resiliency to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances of the site over time. The monitoring program at the Connected site was to have included an assessment of the structural stability of installed restoration modules and biological condition of reattached corals performed on the following schedule: immediately (i.e., baseline), 1, 3, and 6 years after restoration and following a catastrophic event. Restoration of this site was completed on July 20, 2001. Due to unavoidable delays in the settlement of the case, the “baseline” monitoring event for this site occurred in July 2004. The catastrophic monitoring event occurred on August 31, 2004, some 2 ½ weeks after the passage of Hurricane Charley which passed nearby, almost directly over the Dry Tortugas. In September 2005, the year one monitoring event occurred shortly after the passage of Hurricane Katrina, some 70 km to the NW. This report presents the results of all three monitoring events. (PDF contains 37 pages.)

M/V JACQUELYN L Coral Reef Restoration Monitoring Report, Monitoring Events 2004-2005. Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary Monroe County, Florida

This document presents the results of the monitoring of a repaired coral reef injured by the M/V Jacquelyn L vessel grounding incident of July 7, 1991. This grounding occurred in Florida state waters within the boundaries of the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the Board of Trustees of the Internal Improvement Trust Fund of the State of Florida, (“State of Florida” or “state”) are the co-trustees for the natural resources within the FKNMS and, thus, are responsible for mediating the restoration of the damaged marine resources and monitoring the outcome of the restoration actions. The restoration monitoring program tracks patterns of biological recovery, determines the success of restoration measures, and assesses the resiliency to environmental and anthropogenic disturbances of the site over time. The monitoring program at the Jacquelyn L site was to have included an assessment of the structural stability of installed restoration modules and biological condition of reattached corals performed on the following schedule: immediately (i.e., baseline), 1, 3, and 6 years after restoration and following a catastrophic event. Restoration of this site was completed on July 20, 2000. Due to unavoidable delays in the settlement of the case, the “baseline” monitoring event for this site occurred in July 2004. The catastrophic monitoring event occurred on August 31, 2004, some 2 ½ weeks after the passage of Hurricane Charley which passed nearby, almost directly over the Dry Tortugas. In September 2005, the year one monitoring event occurred shortly after the passage of Hurricane Katrina, some 70 km to the NW. This report presents the results of all three monitoring events. (PDF contains 31 pages.)

News from Academy Bay

Conservation problems and programmes. The giant tortoises. The land iguanas. The Hawaiian petrels. The penguins, cormorants and gulls. The fire ants. The control of introduced mammals. Botany. Marine biology. Galapagos cave faunas. Rare twin births of giant tortoises. Visitors and events at the Charles Darwin Research Station (CDRS).

Final Evaluation Memorandum: Strategies for Resolving Low Dissolved Oxygen and Methylmercury Events in Northern Suisun Marsh

The purpose of the project is to improve our understanding about best management practices that can be utilized on diked managed wetlands in Suisun Marsh for reducing the occurrence of low dissolved oxygen (DO) and high methylmercury (MeHg) events associated primarily with fall flood-up practices. Low DO events are of concern because they can lead to undue stress and even mortality of sensitive aquatic organisms. Elevated MeHg levels are of concern because MeHg is a neurotoxin that bio-magnifies up the food chain and can cause deleterious effects to higher trophic level consumers such as piscivorous fish, birds, and mammals (including humans). This study involved two years (2007-2008) of intensive field data collection at two managed wetland sites in northwest Suisun Marsh and their surrounding tidal sloughs, an area with prior documented low DO events. In addition, the study collected limited soils and water quality field data and mapped vegetation for three managed wetland sites in the central interior of Suisun Marsh, for the purpose of examining whether wetlands at other locations exhibit characteristics that could indicate potential for similar concerns. In Year 1 of the study, the objective was to identify the baseline conditions in the managed wetlands and determine which physical management conditions could be modified for Year 2 to reduce low DO and MeHg production issues most effectively. The objective of Year 2 was to evaluate the effectiveness of these modified management actions at reducing production of low DO and elevated MeHg conditions within the managed wetlands and to continue improving understanding of the underlying biogeochemical processes at play. This Final Evaluation Memorandum examined a total of 19 BMPs, 14 involving modified water management operations and the remaining five involving modified soil and vegetation management practices. Some of these BMPs were previously employed and others have not yet been tested. For each BMP this report assesses its efficacy in improving water quality conditions and potential conflicts with wetland management. It makes recommendations for further study (either feasibility assessments or field testing) and whether to consider for future use. Certain previously used BMPs were found to be important contributors to poor water quality conditions and their continued use is not recommended. Some BMPs that could improve water quality conditions appear difficult to implement in regards to compatibility with wetland management; these BMPs require further elaboration and feasibility assessment to determine whether they should be field tested. In practice for any given wetland, there is likely a combination of BMPs that would together have the greatest potential to address the low DO and high MeHg water quality concerns. Consequently, this report makes no sweeping recommendations applicable to large groups of wetlands but instead promotes a careful consideration of factors at each wetland or small groups of wetlands and from that assessment to apply the most effective suite of BMPs. This report also identifies a number of recommended future actions and studies. These recommendations are geared toward improving the process understanding of factors that promote low DO and high MeHg conditions, the extent of these problems in Suisun Marsh, the regulatory basis for the DO standards for a large estuarine marsh, the economics of BMPs, and alternative approaches to BMPs on diked managed wetlands that may address the water quality issues. The most important of these recommendations is that future BMP implementation should be carried out within the context of rigorous scientific evaluation so as to gain the maximum improvement in how to manage these water quality issues in the diked managed wetlands of Suisun Marsh.

Catch rates and demographics of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) captured from the Charleston, South Carolina, shipping channel during the period of mandatory use of turtle excluder devices (TEDs)

Trawling was conducted in the Charleston, South Carolina, shipping channel between May and August during 2004–07 to evaluate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) catch rates and demographic distributions. Two hundred and twenty individual loggerheads were captured in 432 trawling events during eight sampling periods lasting 2–10 days each. Catch was analyzed by using a generalized linear model. Data were fitted to a negative binomial distribution with the log of standardized sampling effort (i.e., an hour of sampling with a net head rope length standardized to 30.5 m) for each event treated as an offset term. Among 21 variables, factors, and interactions, five terms were significant in the final model, which accounted for 45% of model deviance. Highly significant differences in catch were noted among sampling periods and sampling locations within the channel, with greatest catch furthest seaward consistent with historical observations. Loggerhead sea turtle catch rates in 2004–07 were greater than in 1991–92 when mandatory use of turtle excluder devices was beginning to be phased in. Concurrent with increased catch rates, loggerheads captured in 2004–07 were larger than in 1991–92. Eighty-five percent of loggerheads captured were ≤75.0 cm straight-line carapace length (nuchal notch to tip of carapace) and there was a 3.9:1 female-to-male bias, consistent with limited data for this location two decades earlier. Only juvenile loggerheads ≤75.0 cm possessed haplotypes other than CC-A01 or CC-A02 that dominate in the region. Six rare and one un-described haplotype were predominantly found in June 2004.

Influence of ocean conditions on the timing of early life history events for blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) off California

Settled juvenile blue rockfish (Sebastes mystinus) were collected from two kelp beds approximately 335 km apart off Mendocino in northern California and Monterey in central California. A total of 112 rockfish were collected from both sites over 5 years (1993, 1994, 2001, 2002, and 2003). Total age, settlement date, age at settlement, and birth date were determined from otolith microstructure. Fish off Mendocino settled mostly in June and fish off Monterey settled mostly in May (average difference in settlement=23 days). Although the difference in the timing of settlement followed this same pattern for both areas over the five years, settlement occurred later in 2002 and 2003 than in the prior years of sampling. The difference in the timing of settlement was due primarily to differences in birth dates for the two areas. The time of settlement was positively related to upwelling and negatively related to sea level anomaly for most of the months before settlement. Knowledge of the timing of settlement has implications for design and placement of marine protected areas because protection of nursery grounds is frequently a major objective of these protected areas. The timing of settlement is also an important consideration in the planning of surveys of early recruits because mistimed surveys (caused by latitudinal differences in the timing of settlement) could produce biased estimates.