Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

Description of economic data collected with a random sample of commercial reef fish boats in the Florida Keys

This study summarizes the results of a survey designed to provide economic information about the financial status of commercial reef fish boats with homeports in the Florida Keys. A survey questionnaire was administered in the summer and fall of 1994 by interviewers in face-to-face meetings with owners or operators of randomly selected boats. Fishermen were asked for background information about themselves and their boats, their capital investments in boats and equipment, and about their average catches, revenues, and costs per trip for their two most important kinds of fishing trips during 1993 for species in the reef fish fishery. Respondents were characterized with regard to their dependence on the reef fish fishery as a source of household income. Boats were described in terms of their physical and financial characteristics. Different kinds of fishing trips were identified by the species that generated the greatest revenue. Trips were grouped into the following categories: yellowtail snapper (Ocyurus chrysurus); mutton snapper (Lutjanus analis), black grouper (Mycteroperca bonaci), or red grouper (Epinephelus morio); gray snapper (Lutjanus griseus); deeper water groupers and tilefishes; greater amberjack (Seriola dumerili); spiny lobster (Panulirus argus); king mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla); and dolphin (Coryphaena hippurus). Average catches, revenues, routine trip costs, and net operating revenues per boat per trip and per boat per year were estimated for each category of fishing trips. In addition to its descriptive value, data collected during this study will aid in future examinations of the economic effects of various regulations on commercial reef fish fishermen.(PDF file contains 48 pages.)

Walk on the Water: experience of brackish rivers with children

A resource guide for teachers for 4th through 6th graders, produced as part of the Aquapeake project. Includes: background on how and why it was developed; Cycles which is a poetic expression of the wedding of natural studies with personal expression; Aout our Trip, is a tentative sketch for possible uses of the folios; Aquaria on setting up various sizes and styles of aquaria; Music, songs in word and music. (PDF contains 70 pages)

Recruitment as an evolving random process of aggregation and mortality

The dynamics of the survival of recruiting fish are analyzed as evolving random processes of aggregation and mortality. The analyses draw on recent advances in the physics of complex networks and, in particular, the scale-free degree distribution arising from growing random networks with preferential attachment of links to nodes. In this study simulations were conducted in which recruiting fish 1) were subjected to mortality by using alternative mortality encounter models and 2) aggregated according to random encounters (two schools randomly encountering one another join into a single school) or preferential attachment (the probability of a successful aggregation of two schools is proportional to the school sizes). The simulations started from either a “disaggregated” (all schools comprised a single fish) or an aggregated initial condition. Results showed the transition of the school-size distribution with preferential attachment evolving toward a scale-free school size distribution, whereas random attachment evolved toward an exponential distribution. Preferential attachment strategies performed better than random attachment strategies in terms of recruitment survival at time when mortality encounters were weighted toward schools rather than to individual fish. Mathematical models were developed whose solutions (either analytic or numerical) mimicked the simulation results. The resulting models included both Beverton-Holt and Ricker-like recruitment, which predict recruitment as a function of initial mean school size as well as initial stock size. Results suggest that school-size distributions during recruitment may provide information on recruitment processes. The models also provide a template for expanding both theoretical and empirical recruitment research.

Applications in adaptive cluster sampling of Gulf of Alaska rockfish

Adaptive cluster sampling (ACS) has been the subject of many publications about sampling aggregated populations. Choosing the criterion value that invokes ACS remains problematic. We address this problem using data from a June 1999 ACS survey for rockfish, specifically for Pacific ocean perch (Sebastes alutus), and for shortraker (S. borealis) and rougheye (S. aleutianus) rockfish combined. Our hypotheses were that ACS would outperform simple random sampling (SRS) for S. alutus and would be more applicable for S. alutus than for S. borealis and S. aleutianus combined because populations of S. alutus are thought to be more aggregated. Three alternatives for choosing a criterion value were investigated. We chose the strategy that yielded the lowest criterion value and simulated the higher criterion values with the data after the survey. Systematic random sampling was conducted across the whole area to determine the lowest criterion value, and then a new systematic random sample was taken with adaptive sampling around each tow that exceeded the fixed criterion value. ACS yielded gains in precision (SE) over SRS. Bootstrapping showed that the distribution of an ACS estimator is approximately normal, whereas the SRS sampling distribution is skewed and bimodal. Simulation showed that a higher criterion value results in substantially less adaptive sampling with little tradeoff in precision. When time-efficiency was examined, ACS quickly added more samples, but sampling edge units caused this efficiency to be lessened, and the gain in efficiency did not measurably affect our conclusions. ACS for S. alutus should be incorporated with a fixed criterion value equal to the top quartile of previously collected survey data. The second hypothesis was confirmed because ACS did not prove to be more effective for S. borealis-S. aleutianus. Overall, our ACS results were not as optimistic as those previously published in the literature, and indicate the need for further study of this sampling method.

Allozyme and RAPD variation in the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares)

Stock structure of eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna was investigated by analyzing allozymes and random amplified polymorphic DNAs (RAPDs) from 10 samples of 20–30 individuals each, collected between 1994 and 1996 from fishing vessels operating in the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission (IATTC) yellowfin regulatory area (CYRA). Allozyme analysis resolved 28 loci, eight of which were polymorphic under the 0.95 criterion: Aat-S*, Glud, Gpi-F*, Gpi-S*, La, Lgg, Pap-F*, and 6-Pgd, resulting in a mean heterozygosity over all allozyme loci of H = 0.052. Four polymorphic RAPD loci were selected for analysis, resulting in a mean heterozygosity of H = 0.43. Eight of 45 pairwise comparisons of allozyme allele frequencies among the ten samples showed significant differences after correction for multiple testing (P<0.0001), all of which involved comparisons with the Gulf of California sample. Confirmation of this signal of population structure would have management implications. No significant divergence in RAPD allele frequencies was observed among samples. Weir and Cockerham θ estimated for allozyme loci (θ=0.048; P<0.05) and RAPD loci (θ=0.030; P>0.05) revealed little population structure among samples. Mantel tests demonstrated that the genetic relationships among samples did not correspond to an isolation-by-distance model for either class of marker. Four of eight comparisons of coastal and offshore samples revealed differences of allele frequencies at the Gpi-F* locus (P<0.05), although none of these differences was significant after correction for multiple testing (P>0.001). Results are consistent with the hypothesis that the CYRA yellowfin tuna samples comprise a single genetic stock, although gene flow appears to be greater among coastal samples than between coastal and offshore samples.

Movements, behavior, and habitat selection of bigeye tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern equatorial Pacific, ascertained through archival tags

Ninety-six bigeye tuna (88– 134 cm fork length) were caught and released with implanted archival (electronic data storage) tags near fish-aggregating devices (FADs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO) during April 2000. Twenty-nine fish were recaptured, and the data from twenty-seven tags were successfully downloaded and processed. Time at liberty ranged from 8 to 446 days, and data for 23 fish at liberty for 30 days or more are presented. The accuracy in geolocation estimates, derived from the light level data, is about 2 degrees in latitude and 0.5 degrees in longitude in this region. The movement paths derived from the filtered geolocation estimates indicated that none of the fish traveled west of 110°W during the period between release and recapture. The null hypothesis that the movement path is random was rejected in 17 of the 22 statistical tests of the observed movement paths. The estimated mean velocity was 117 km/d. The fish exhibited occasional deep-diving behavior, and some dives exceeded 1000 m where temperatures were less than 3°C. Evaluations of timed depth records, resulted in the discrimination of three distinct behaviors: 54.3% of all days were classified as unassociated (with a floating object) type-1 behavior, 27.7% as unassociated type-2 behavior, and 18.7% as behavior associated with a floating object. The mean residence time at floating objects was 3.1 d. Data sets separated into day and night were used to evaluate diel differences in behavior and habitat selection. When the fish were exhibiting unassociated type-1 behavior (diel vertical migrations), they were mostly at depths of less than 50 m (within the mixed layer) throughout the night, and during the day between 200 and 300 m and 13° and 14°C. They shifted their average depths in conjunction with dawn and dusk events, presumably tracking the deep-scattering layer as a foraging strategy. There were also observed changes in the average nighttime depth distributions of the fish in relation to moon phase.

Results of a stratified random bottom trawl survey for scad and mackerel in Mozambican waters, from May to June 1984

The total abundance of small pelagic species in Mozambican waters was estimated to be 100 (plus or minus 45) thousand tonnes of which scad and mackerel constituted 57 (plus or minus 39) thousand tonnes. These abundance estimates must be considered as minimum estimates of biomass as the efficiency of the trawl was assumed to be equal to 1.0.

Results of a random stratified bottom trawl survey for scad and mackerel stocks in Mozambican waters: small pelagic fish December-January 1985

The results obtained during the third phase of Nauka are reported concerning the standing stock estimates, population length structure and gonad development of scad and mackerel stocks and the catch composition in Mozambican waters.

Genetic analysis of east and west coast populations of Penaeus monodon from India based on random amplified polymorphic DNA

The east and west coast populations of wild Penaeus monodon in India were genetically characterized by RAPD analysis using six highly polymorphic primers reported earlier. The average genetic similarities within populations, based on profiles generated by all the six primers, were 0.828 and 0.851 for the east and west coast populations, respectively, values with individual primers ranging from 0.744 to 0.889. The average genetic similarity between populations across all the primers was 0.774. The number of bands found to be polymorphic were 38 (51.35%) and 37 (50.68%) in the east and west coast populations, respectively. Primer 5 yielded the highest level of polymorphism (63.63%) in the east coast population whereas primer 3 yielded the lowest level of polymorphism (36.36%) in the west coast population. The study reveals the existence of genetic variation in P. monodon stocks providing scope for genetic improvement through selective breeding. It also provides baseline data for future work on population structure analysis of P. monodon.