Time for a Sea Change: a Study of the Effectiveness of Biodiversity Conservation Measures and Marine Protected Areas Along Southern Thailand’s Andaman Sea Coastline

This study examines how Thailand’s biodiversity conservation measures affect fishing communities, especially in the marine protected areas (MPAs) on the Andaman Sea coastline. It documents the various efforts of the local fishing communities to protect the resources in the area. Also included are recommendations for government agencies, civil society and the international community. [PDF contains 94 pages]

Einfluss des Tag-Nacht-Verhaltens von Fischen auf das Ergebnis hydroakustischer Messungen

Echo integration is an established method for stock estimation. However, this method is not free of errors like every other measuring method. Especially the variation between day and night behaviour of fish may lead to large measuring errors. A new method is represented detecting such systematic errors, exemplified by investigations during the international hydroacoustic survey on the spring spawning herring in the Norwegian Sea. For this method all measured sA-values are sorted by starting time of the measuring unit distance. In order to reduce random influences a moving average over five time intervals is computed. When displaying these values in a diagram makes it is very easy to detect systematic errors based on the differences in day-night behaviour. For both species, herring and blue whiting, stock estimations are calculated based on the measured sA-values and the results of the analysed trawl catches. The influence of the differnt day and night behaviour of herring on the results of its biomass estimation is rather low. For blue whiting the measured values were about three time higher during day time than during night time. The result of this investigation should initiate a change of the evaluation procedure for stock estimation based on hydroacoustic measurements.

The relationship between otolith increments and time for yellowfin and skipjack tuna marked with tetracycline

ENGLISH: The rate at which increments are deposited on the sagittal otoliths of yellowfin (Thunnus albacares) and skipjack (Katsuwonus p elamis) tunas is determined by a markrecapture experiment using tetracycline. During growth in fork length from 40 to 110 em, and for a period of up to 389 days, yellowfin of the Revillagigedo Islands- Baja California region deposit one increment per day in either the postrostrum or rostrum position of the otolith. For skipjack of the same region, rostrum increments underestimate time by approximately 24 percent during growth from 42 to 64 cm and over the maximum interval of 249 days. The growth rate of each species is estimated from the recapture fork length and the linear change in an otolith dimension following tetracycline injection. Over specific ranges in fork length the rates are 3.06 and 1.15 em per month for yellowfin and skipjack, respectively. SPANISH: La rapidez (tasa) en la que se depositan los incrementos en los otolitos sagitales del aleta amarilla (Thunnus albacares) y el barrilete (Katsuwonus pelamis) se determina mediante un experimento al recapturar los peces que han sido marcados con tetraciclina. Durante el crecimiento de la longitud de horquilla de 40 a 110 cm y por un período hasta de 389 días, se forma en el aleta amarilla de la región de las Islas Revillagigedo-Baja California, un incremento diario ya sea en el parte del postrostrum o rostrum de los otolitos. Con respecto al barrilete de la misma region los incrementos en el rostrum subestiman aproximadamente el tiempo en un 24 por ciento durante el crecimiento de 42 a 64 cm y sobre un intervalo máximo de 249 días. El índice de crecimiento de cada especie se estima en la recaptura según la longitud de horquilla y el cambio lineal en la dimensión de un otolito después de la inyección de tetraciclina. La variación específica sobre la longitud de horquilla de los índices son 3.06 y 1.15 cm por mes para el aleta amarilla y el barrilete, respectivamente. (PDF contains 54 pages.)

Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

Predicting the effects of climate change on sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida

Rising global temperatures threaten the survival of many plant and animal species. Having already risen at an unprecedented rate in the past century, temperatures are predicted to rise between 0.3 and 7.5C in North America over the next 100 years (Hawkes et al. 2007). Studies have documented the effects of climate warming on phenology (timing of seasonal activities), with observations of early arrival at breeding grounds, earlier ends to the reproductive season, and delayed autumnal migrations (Pike et al. 2006). In addition, for species not suited to the physiological demands of cold winter temperatures, increasing temperatures could shift tolerable habitats to higher latitudes (Hawkes et al. 2007). More directly, climate warming will impact thermally sensitive species like sea turtles, who exhibit temperature-dependent sexual determination. Temperatures in the middle third of the incubation period determine the sex of sea turtle offspring, with higher temperatures resulting in a greater abundance of female offspring. Consequently, increasing temperatures from climate warming would drastically change the offspring sex ratio (Hawkes et al. 2007). Of the seven extant species of sea turtles, three (leatherback, Kemp’s ridley, and hawksbill) are critically endangered, two (olive ridley and green) are endangered, and one (loggerhead) is threatened. Considering the predicted scenarios of climate warming and the already tenuous status of sea turtle populations, it is essential that efforts are made to understand how increasing temperatures may affect sea turtle populations and how these species might adapt in the face of such changes. In this analysis, I seek to identify the impact of changing climate conditions over the next 50 years on the availability of sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida given predicted changes in temperature and precipitation. I predict that future conditions in Florida will be less suitable for sea turtle nesting during the historic nesting season. This may imply that sea turtles will nest at a different time of year, in more northern latitudes, to a lesser extent, or possibly not at all. It seems likely that changes in temperature and precipitation patterns will alter the distribution of sea turtle nesting locations worldwide, provided that beaches where the conditions are suitable for nesting still exist. Hijmans and Graham (2006) evaluate a range of climate envelope models in terms of their ability to predict species distributions under climate change scenarios. Their results suggested that the choice of species distribution model is dependent on the specifics of each individual study. Fuller et al. (2008) used a maximum entropy approach to model the potential distribution of 11 species in the Arctic Coastal Plain of Alaska under a series of projected climate scenarios. Recently, Pike (in press) developed Maxent models to investigate the impacts of climate change on green sea turtle nest distribution and timing. In each of these studies, a set of environmental predictor variables (including climate variables), for which ‘current’ conditions are available and ‘future’ conditions have been projected, is used in conjunction with species occurrence data to map potential species distribution under the projected conditions. In this study, I will take a similar approach in mapping the potential sea turtle nesting habitat in Florida by developing a Maxent model based on environmental and climate data and projecting the model for future climate data. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Bassenthwaite Lake: a general assessment of environmental and biological features and their susceptibility to change

Bassenthwaite (Lake) is one of the larger Cumbrian lakes, certainly one of the most distinctive, and of considerable conservation and amenity value. Although its shores lack sizeable settlements, its main inflow receives sewage effluent from a major tourist centre (Keswick) and is subject to episodic floods. These influences, the growing development of leisure activities at the lake (e.g. sailing, time-share units), and recent road-construction, have led to past appraisals of ecological impacts and lake management. The lake has not been the subject of intense and long-term ecological study, but much scattered information exists that is relevant to future management decisions. In the present Report, commissioned by North West Water, such information - published and unpublished - is surveyed. Especial attention is given to evidence bearing on susceptibility to change, affecting the lake environment and its biota or species of conservation interest. Extensive use has been made of the results of a recent (1986-7) seasonal survey by the FBA.

A general assessment of environmental and biological features of Windermere and their susceptibility to change

Bassenthwaite (Lake) is one of the larger Cumbrian lakes, certainly one of the most distinctive, and of considerable conservation and amenity value. Although its shores lack sizeable settlements, its main inflow receives sewage effluent from a major tourist centre (Keswick) and is subject to episodic floods. These influences, the growing development of leisure activities at the lake (e.g. sailing, time-share units), and recent road-construction, have led to past appraisals of ecological impacts and lake management. The lake has not been the subject of intense and long-term ecological study, but much scattered information exists that is relevant to future management decisions. In the present Report, commissioned by North West Water, such information - published and unpublished - is surveyed. Especial attention is given to evidence bearing on susceptibility to change, affecting the lake environment and its biota or species of conservation interest. Extensive use has been made of the results of a recent (1986-7) seasonal survey by the FBA.

River Lune processes. A study of change in the River Lune catchment and recommendations for flood defence management

There has been a perception of increasing river channel instability in north west rivers and the River Lune in particular in recent decades. This has been attributed variously to: (a) long-term trends in precipitation-runoff regime; (b) changes in land-use such as moor-draining and sub-soil draining such that the river is more flashy than previously, and (c) a change in the magnitude-frequency relationships of flow such that high discharges are occurring with increased frequency. Resources are available in the form of rainfall and runoff records, archived information on channel planform, land use statistics and local engineering experience which have not been jointly and fully evaluated. Effective interpretation of the nature of channel change through time with respect to this resource may enhance the Environment Agency's ability to manage the river channel efficiently in the future and will aid the development of effective policy. The results of this study will for the first time, provide robust guidance with respect to long-term channel adjustment and the appropriate management options. The research provides suggestions as to how policy might be developed taking account of other pertinent factors.

The western blue groper (Achoerodus gouldii), a protogynous hermaphroditic labrid with exceptional longevity, late maturity, slow growth, and both late maturation and sex change

The western blue groper (Achoerodus gouldii) is shown to be a temperate protogynous hermaphrodite, which spawns between early winter and mid-spring. Because A. gouldii changes body color at about the time of sex change, its color can be used as a proxy for sex for estimating the size and age at sex change and for estimating growth when it is not possible to use gonads for determining the sex of this fish. The following characteristics make A. gouldii highly susceptible to overfishing: 1) exceptional longevity, with a maximum age (70 years) that is by far the greatest yet estimated for a labrid; 2) slow growth for the first 15 years and little subsequent growth by females; and 3) late maturation at a large total length (TL50 = 653 mm) and old age (~17 years) and 4) late sex change at an even greater total length (TL50 = 821 mm) and age (~35 years). The TL50 at maturity and particularly at sex change exceeded the minimum legal total length (500 mm) of A. gouldii and the lengths of many recreationally and commercially caught fish. Many of these characteristics are found in certain deep-water fishes that are likewise considered susceptible to overfishing. Indeed, although fishing effort for A. gouldii in Western Australia is not particularly high, per-recruit analyses indicate that this species is already close to or fully exploited.

Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

Linking climate change, rice yield, and migration: the Philippine experience

This study tests the hypothesis that climate change, through its rice productivity impacts, induces out-migration in the Philippines. Results show that climate change effects such as increasing night time temperature and extreme rainfall pattern, by way of reduction in rice yield and farm revenues, significantly increases the number of Overseas Filipino Workers. Findings also show that overseas migration of female workers is more sensitive to climate and rice productivity changes compared to male overseas migration. However, unlike overseas migration, the reduction in yield and farm revenues act as a constraint to domestic migration.

Change in Pacific Northwest coastal ecosystems. Proceedings of the Pacific Northwest Coastal Ecosystems Regional Study Workshop, August 73-14, 1996, Troutdale, Oregon

Over the past one hundred and fifty years, the landscape and ecosystems of the Pacific Northwest coastal region, already subject to many variable natural forces, have been profoundly affected by human activities. In virtually every coastal watershed from the Strait of Juan de Fuca to Cape Mendocino, settlement, exploitation and development of resou?-ces have altered natural ecosystems. Vast, complex forests that once covered the region have been largely replaced by tree plantations or converted to non-forest conditions. Narrow coastal valleys, once filled with wetlands and braided streams that tempered storm runoff and provided salmon habitat, were drained, filled, or have otherwise been altered to create land for agriculture and other uses. Tideflats and saltmarshes in both large and small estuaries were filled for industrial, commercial, and other urban uses. Many estuaries, including that of the Columbia River, have been channeled, deepened, and jettied to provide for safe, reliable navigation. The prodigious rainfall in the region, once buffered by dense vegetation and complex river and stream habitat, now surges down sirfiplified stream channels laden with increased burdens of sediment and debris. Although these and many other changes have occurred incrementally over time and in widely separated areas, their sum can now be seen to have significantly affected the natural productivity of the region and, as a consequence, changed the economic structure of its human communities. This activity has taken place in a region already shaped by many interacting and dynamic natural forces. Large-scale ocean circulation patterns, which vary over long time periods, determine the strength and location of currents along the coast, and thus affect conditions in the nearshore ocean and estuaries throughout the region. Periodic seasonal differences in the weather and ocean act on shorter time scales; winters are typically wet with storms from the southwest while summers tend to be dry with winds from the northwest. Some phenomena are episodic, such as El Nifio events, which alter weather, marine habitats, and the distribution and survival of marine organisms. Other oceanic and atmospheric changes operate more slowly; over time scales of decades, centuries, and longer. Episodic geologic events also punctuate the region, such as volcanic eruptions that discharge widespread blankets of ash, frequent minor earthquakes, and major subduction zone earthquakes each 300 to 500 years that release accumulated tectonic strain, dropping stretches of ocean shoreline, inundating estuaries and coastal valleys, and triggering landslides that reshape stream profiles. While these many natural processes have altered, sometimes dramatically, the Pacific Northwest coastal region, these same processes have formed productive marine and coastal ecosystems, and many of the species in these systems have adapted to the variable environmental conditions of the region to ensure their long-term survival.

Fish and habitat community assessments on North Carolina shipwrecks: potential sites for detecting climate change in the graveyard of the Atlantic

The Monitor National Marine Sanctuary (MNMS) was the nation’s first sanctuary, originally established in 1975 to protect the famous civil war ironclad shipwreck, the USS Monitor. Since 2008, sanctuary sponsored archeological research has branched out to include historically significant U-boats and World War II shipwrecks within the larger Graveyard of the Atlantic off the coast of North Carolina. These shipwrecks are not only important for their cultural value, but also as habitat for a wide diversity of fishes, invertebrates and algal species. Additionally, due to their unique location within an important area for biological productivity, the sanctuary and other culturally valuable shipwrecks within the Graveyard of the Atlantic are potential sites for examining community change. For this reason, from June 8-30, 2010, biological and ecological investigations were conducted at four World War II shipwrecks (Keshena, City of Atlanta, Dixie Arrow, EM Clark), as part of the MNMS 2010 Battle of the Atlantic (BOTA) research project. At each shipwreck site, fish community surveys were conducted and benthic photo-quadrats were collected to characterize the mobile conspicuous fish, smaller prey fish, and sessile invertebrate and algal communities. In addition, temperature sensors were placed at all four shipwrecks previously mentioned, as well as an additional shipwreck, the Manuela. The data, which establishes a baseline condition to use in future assessments, suggest strong differences in both the fish and benthic communities among the surveyed shipwrecks based on the oceanographic zone (depth). In order to establish these shipwrecks as sites for detecting community change it is suggested that a subset of locations across the shelf be selected and repeatedly sampled over time. In order to reduce variability within sites for both the benthic and fish communities, a significant number of surveys should be conducted at each location. This sampling strategy will account for the natural differences in community structure that exist across the shelf due to the oceanographic regime, and allow robust statistical analyses of community differences over time.

Recruitment as an evolving random process of aggregation and mortality

The dynamics of the survival of recruiting fish are analyzed as evolving random processes of aggregation and mortality. The analyses draw on recent advances in the physics of complex networks and, in particular, the scale-free degree distribution arising from growing random networks with preferential attachment of links to nodes. In this study simulations were conducted in which recruiting fish 1) were subjected to mortality by using alternative mortality encounter models and 2) aggregated according to random encounters (two schools randomly encountering one another join into a single school) or preferential attachment (the probability of a successful aggregation of two schools is proportional to the school sizes). The simulations started from either a “disaggregated” (all schools comprised a single fish) or an aggregated initial condition. Results showed the transition of the school-size distribution with preferential attachment evolving toward a scale-free school size distribution, whereas random attachment evolved toward an exponential distribution. Preferential attachment strategies performed better than random attachment strategies in terms of recruitment survival at time when mortality encounters were weighted toward schools rather than to individual fish. Mathematical models were developed whose solutions (either analytic or numerical) mimicked the simulation results. The resulting models included both Beverton-Holt and Ricker-like recruitment, which predict recruitment as a function of initial mean school size as well as initial stock size. Results suggest that school-size distributions during recruitment may provide information on recruitment processes. The models also provide a template for expanding both theoretical and empirical recruitment research.

Radiocarbon record of solar variability and Holocene climatic change in coastal southern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pollen analysis and 5 radiocarbon dates for a 687-cm core provide a detailed chronology of environmental change for San Joaquin Marsh at the head of Newport Bay, Orange County, California. Sediment deposition kept pace with sea level rise during the mid-Holocene, but after 4500 years BP, sea water regularly reached the coring site, and salt marsh was the local vegetation. Brief periods of dominance by fresh-water vegetation 3800, 2800, 2300 and after 560 years BP correlate global cooling events and (except the 3800-year BP event) with carbon-14 production anomalies. The coincidence of climate change and carbon-14 anomalies support a causal connection with solar variability, but regardless of the causal mechanism(s) the delta-carbon-14 curves provide a chronology for global, high-frequency climatic change comparable to that of Milankovitch cyclicity for longer time scales.