Investigating changes in global tropical cyclone storm frequency and intensity

Understanding fluctuations in tropical cyclone activity along United States shores and abroad becomes increasingly important as coastal managers and planners seek to save lives, mitigate damage, and plan for resilience in the face of changing storminess and sea-level rise. Tropical cyclone activity has long been of concern to coastal areas as they bring strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas. Given projections of a warming climate, current estimates suggest that not only will tropical cyclones increase in frequency, but also in intensity (maximum sustained winds and minimum central pressures). An understanding of what has happened historically is an important step in identifying potential future changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. The ability to detect such changes depends on a consistent and reliable global tropical cyclone dataset. Until recently no central repository for historical tropical cyclone data existed. To fill this need, the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) dataset was developed to collect all known global historical tropical cyclone data into a single source for dissemination. With this dataset, a global examination of changes in tropical cyclone frequency and intensity can be performed. Caveats apply to any historical tropical cyclone analysis however, as the data contributed to the IBTrACS archive from various tropical cyclone warning centers is still replete with biases that may stem from operational changes, inhomogeneous monitoring programs, and time discontinuities. A detailed discussion of the difficulties in detecting trends using tropical cyclone data can be found in Landsea et al. 2006. The following sections use the IBTrACS dataset to show the global spatial variability of tropical cyclone frequency and intensity. Analyses will show where the strongest storms typically occur, the regions with the highest number of tropical cyclones per decade, and the locations of highest average maximum wind speeds. (PDF contains 3 pages)

Whales and Sonar: Environmental Exemptions for the Navy’s Mid-Frequency Active Sonar Training

Mid-frequency active (MFA) sonar emits pulses of sound from an underwater transmitter to help determine the size, distance, and speed of objects. The sound waves bounce off objects and reflect back to underwater acoustic receivers as an echo. MFA sonar has been used since World War II, and the Navy indicates it is the only reliable way to track submarines, especially more recently designed submarines that operate more quietly, making them more difficult to detect. Scientists have asserted that sonar may harm certain marine mammals under certain conditions, especially beaked whales. Depending on the exposure, they believe that sonar may damage the ears of the mammals, causing hemorrhaging and/or disorientation. The Navy agrees that the sonar may harm some marine mammals, but says it has taken protective measures so that animals are not harmed. MFA training must comply with a variety of environmental laws, unless an exemption is granted by the appropriate authority. Marine mammals are protected under the Marine Mammal Protection Act (MMPA) and some under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). The training program must also comply with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA), and in some cases the Coastal Zone Management Act (CZMA). Each of these laws provides some exemption for certain federal actions. The Navy has invoked all of the exemptions to continue its sonar training exercises. Litigation challenging the MFA training off the coast of Southern California ended with a November 2008 U.S. Supreme Court decision. The Supreme Court said that the lower court had improperly favored the possibility of injuring marine animals over the importance of military readiness. The Supreme Court’s ruling allowed the training to continue without the limitations imposed on it by other courts. (pdf contains 20pp.)

Relationship between water quality, watermilfoil frequency, and weevil distribution in the State of Washington

During the summer of 1997, we surveyed 50 waterbodies in Washington State to determine the distribution of the aquatic weevil Euhrychiopsis lecontei Dietz. We collected data on water quality and the frequency of occurrence of watermilfoil species within selected watermilfoil beds to compare the waterbodies and determine if they were related to the distribution E. lecontei . We found E. lecontei in 14 waterbodies, most of which were in eastern Washington. Only one lake with weevils was located in western Washington. Weevils were associated with both Eurasian ( Myriophyllum spicatum L.) and northern watermilfoil ( M. sibiricum K.). Waterbodies with E. lecontei had significantly higher ( P < 0.05) pH (8.7 ± 0.2) (mean ± 2SE), specific conductance (0.3 ± 0.08 mS cm -1 ) and total alkalinity (132.4 ± 30.8 mg CaCO 3 L -1 ). We also found that weevil presence was related to surface water temperature and waterbody location ( = 24.3, P ≤ 0.001) and of all the models tested, this model provided the best fit (Hosmer- Lemeshow goodness-of-fit = 4.0, P = 0.9). Our results suggest that in Washington State E. lecontei occurs primarily in eastern Washington in waterbodies with pH ≥ 8.2 and specific conductance ≥ 0.2 mS cm -1 . Furthermore, weevil distribution appears to be correlated with waterbody location (eastern versus western Washington) and surface water temperature.

The frequency of muscle protein polymorphism in Menidia menidia (Atherinidae) along the Atlantic coast

(PDF has 6 pages.)

Distribution and sighting frequency of reef fishes in the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary

This study analyzed species richness, distribution, and sighting frequency of selected reef fishes to describe species assemblage composition, abundance, and spatial distribution patterns among sites and regions (Upper Keys, Middle Keys, Lower Keys, and Dry Tortugas) within the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary (FKNMS) barrier reef ecosystem. Data were obtained from the Reef Environmental Education Foundation (REEF) Fish Survey Project, a volunteer fish-monitoring program. A total of 4,324 visual fish surveys conducted at 112 sites throughout the FKNMS were used in these analyses. The data set contained sighting information on 341 fish species comprising 68 families. Species richness was generally highest in the Upper Keys sites (maximum was 220 species at Molasses Reef) and lowest in the Dry Tortugas sites. Encounter rates differed among regions, with the Dry Tortugas having the highest rate, potentially a result of differences in the evenness in fishes and the lower diversity of habitat types in the Dry Tortugas region. Geographic coverage maps were developed for 29 frequently observed species. Fourteen of these species showed significant regional variation in mean sighting frequency (%SF). Six species had significantly lower mean %SF and eight species had significantly higher mean %SF in the Dry Tortugas compared with other regions. Hierarchical clustering based on species composition (presence-absence) and species % SF revealed interesting patterns of similarities among sites that varied across spatial scales. Results presented here indicate that phenomena affecting reef fish composition in the FKNMS operate at multiple spatial scales, including a biogeographic scale that defines the character of the region as a whole, a reef scale (~50-100 km) that include meso-scale physical oceanographic processes and regional variation in reef structure and associated reef habitats, and a local scale that includes level of protection, cross-shelf location and a suite of physical characteristics of a given reef. It is likely that at both regional and local scales, species habitat requirements strongly influence the patterns revealed in this study, and are particularly limiting for species that are less frequently observed in the Dry Tortugas. The results of this report serve as a benchmark for the current status of the reef fishes in the FKNMS. In addition, these data provide the basis for analyses on reserve effects and the biogeographic coupling of benthic habitats and fish assemblages that are currently underway. (PDF contains 61 pages.)

Length-frequency estimation for yellowfin tuna (Thunnus albacares) caught by commercial fishing gear in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Methods of collecting samples for the purpose of estimating the numbers and weights of fish caught, by length interval, are described. Several models for two-stage sampling are described, and the equations for the estimators and their variances are given. The results from a brief simulation study are used to show the differences between estimates made with the different models. Estimators for the average weights of fish in the catch and their variances are also described. These average weights are used to provide improved estimates of the total annual catches of yellowfin taken from the eastern Pacific Ocean, east of 150°W, between 1955 and 1990. SPANISH: Se describen los métodos de recoger de muestreo para estimar el número o peso de peces capturados, por intervalo de talla. Se describen varios modelos para el muestreo de dos etapas, y se presentan las ecuaciones para los estimadores y sus varianzas. Se usan los resultados de un breve estudio de simulación para indicar las diferencias entre estimaciones realizadas con los distintosmodelos. También se describe un estimador para el peso promedio de peces en la captura y su varianza. Se usan estos estimadores para calcular estimaciones mejoradas de las capturas anuales totales de aleta amarilla tomadas del Océano Pacífico oriental, al este de 150°W, entre 1955 y 1990. (PDF contains 41 pages.)

Growth and age composition of northern bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, caught in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, as estimated from length-frequency data, with comments on trans-Pacific migrations

ENGLISH: The spawning of Pacific northern bluefin tuna, Thunnus thynnus, takes place only in the western Pacific Ocean (WPO), but substantial numbers of the juveniles migrate to the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO), where they remain for several months, or longer, and the.n return to the WPO. Lengthfrequency and tagging data show that many bluefin arrive in the EPO as 1-and 2-year olds, and remain there for one or two fishing seasons before returning to the WPO. The proportion of the fish which make the west-to-east migration varies among years. The numbers of 1-, 2-, 3-, 4, and >4 –year olds in the catches of the EPO are estimated for most years of the 1952-1991 period. SPANISH: EI desove del atun aleta azul del norte del Pacifico, Thunnus thynnus, ocurre solamente en el Océano Pacifico occidental (WPO), pero números substanciales de los juveniles migran al Océano Pacifico oriental (OPO), donde permanecen unos meses, 0 mas, antes de regresar al WPO. Datos de marcado y frecuencia de talla indican que muchos aletas azules llegan al OPO a 1 o 2 anos de edad, y permanecen alIi una 0 dos temporadas de pesca antes de regresar al WPO. La proporcion de los peces que migra del oeste al este varia entre anos. Se estima el numero de peces de 1, 2, 3, 4, Y>4 anos de edad en las capturas del OPO para la mayoria de los anos del periodo de 1952-1991. (PDF contains 40 pages.)

An evaluation of length-frequency sampling procedures and subsequent data analysis for purse seine-caught yellowfin tuna in the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: A two-stage sampling design is used to estimate the variances of the numbers of yellowfin in different age groups caught in the eastern Pacific Ocean. For purse seiners, the primary sampling unit (n) is a brine well containing fish from a month-area stratum; the number of fish lengths (m) measured from each well are the secondary units. The fish cannot be selected at random from the wells because of practical limitations. The effects of different sampling methods and other factors on the reliability and precision of statistics derived from the length-frequency data were therefore examined. Modifications are recommended where necessary. Lengths of fish measured during the unloading of six test wells revealed two forms of inherent size stratification: 1) short-term disruptions of existing pattern of sizes, and 2) transition zones between long-term trends in sizes. To some degree, all wells exhibited cyclic changes in mean size and variance during unloading. In half of the wells, it was observed that size selection by the unloaders induced a change in mean size. As a result of stratification, the sequence of sizes removed from all wells was non-random, regardless of whether a well contained fish from a single set or from more than one set. The number of modal sizes in a well was not related to the number of sets. In an additional well composed of fish from several sets, an experiment on vertical mixing indicated that a representative sample of the contents may be restricted to the bottom half of the well. The contents of the test wells were used to generate 25 simulated wells and to compare the results of three sampling methods applied to them. The methods were: (1) random sampling (also used as a standard), (2) protracted sampling, in which the selection process was extended over a large portion of a well, and (3) measuring fish consecutively during removal from the well. Repeated sampling by each method and different combinations indicated that, because the principal source of size variation occurred among primary units, increasing n was the most effective way to reduce the variance estimates of both the age-group sizes and the total number of fish in the landings. Protracted sampling largely circumvented the effects of size stratification, and its performance was essentially comparable to that of random sampling. Sampling by this method is recommended. Consecutive-fish sampling produced more biased estimates with greater variances. Analysis of the 1988 length-frequency samples indicated that, for age groups that appear most frequently in the catch, a minimum sampling frequency of one primary unit in six for each month-area stratum would reduce the coefficients of variation (CV) of their size estimates to approximately 10 percent or less. Additional stratification of samples by set type, rather than month-area alone, further reduced the CV's of scarce age groups, such as the recruits, and potentially improved their accuracy. The CV's of recruitment estimates for completely-fished cohorts during the 198184 period were in the vicinity of 3 to 8 percent. Recruitment estimates and their variances were also relatively insensitive to changes in the individual quarterly catches and variances, respectively, of which they were composed. SPANISH: Se usa un diseño de muestreo de dos etapas para estimar las varianzas de los números de aletas amari11as en distintos grupos de edad capturados en el Océano Pacifico oriental. Para barcos cerqueros, la unidad primaria de muestreo (n) es una bodega de salmuera que contenía peces de un estrato de mes-área; el numero de ta11as de peces (m) medidas de cada bodega es la unidad secundaria. Limitaciones de carácter practico impiden la selección aleatoria de peces de las bodegas. Por 10 tanto, fueron examinados los efectos de distintos métodos de muestreo y otros factores sobre la confiabilidad y precisión de las estadísticas derivadas de los datos de frecuencia de ta11a. Se recomiendan modificaciones donde sean necesarias. Las ta11as de peces medidas durante la descarga de seis bodegas de prueba revelaron dos formas de estratificación inherente por ta11a: 1) perturbaciones a corto plazo en la pauta de ta11as existente, y 2) zonas de transición entre las tendencias a largo plazo en las ta11as. En cierto grado, todas las bodegas mostraron cambios cíclicos en ta11a media y varianza durante la descarga. En la mitad de las bodegas, se observo que selección por ta11a por los descargadores indujo un cambio en la ta11a media. Como resultado de la estratificación, la secuencia de ta11as sacadas de todas las bodegas no fue aleatoria, sin considerar si una bodega contenía peces de un solo lance 0 de mas de uno. El numero de ta11as modales en una bodega no estaba relacionado al numero de lances. En una bodega adicional compuesta de peces de varios lances, un experimento de mezcla vertical indico que una muestra representativa del contenido podría estar limitada a la mitad inferior de la bodega. Se uso el contenido de las bodegas de prueba para generar 25 bodegas simuladas y comparar los resultados de tres métodos de muestreo aplicados a estas. Los métodos fueron: (1) muestreo aleatorio (usado también como norma), (2) muestreo extendido, en el cual el proceso de selección fue extendido sobre una porción grande de una bodega, y (3) medición consecutiva de peces durante la descarga de la bodega. EI muestreo repetido con cada método y distintas combinaciones de n y m indico que, puesto que la fuente principal de variación de ta11a ocurría entre las unidades primarias, aumentar n fue la manera mas eficaz de reducir las estimaciones de la varianza de las ta11as de los grupos de edad y el numero total de peces en los desembarcos. El muestreo extendido evito mayormente los efectos de la estratificación por ta11a, y su desempeño fue esencialmente comparable a aquel del muestreo aleatorio. Se recomienda muestrear con este método. El muestreo de peces consecutivos produjo estimaciones mas sesgadas con mayores varianzas. Un análisis de las muestras de frecuencia de ta11a de 1988 indico que, para los grupos de edad que aparecen con mayor frecuencia en la captura, una frecuencia de muestreo minima de una unidad primaria de cada seis para cada estrato de mes-área reduciría los coeficientes de variación (CV) de las estimaciones de ta11a correspondientes a aproximadamente 10% 0 menos. Una estratificación adicional de las muestras por tipo de lance, y no solamente mes-área, redujo aun mas los CV de los grupos de edad escasos, tales como los reclutas, y mejoró potencialmente su precisión. Los CV de las estimaciones del reclutamiento para las cohortes completamente pescadas durante 1981-1984 fueron alrededor de 3-8%. Las estimaciones del reclutamiento y sus varianzas fueron también relativamente insensibles a cambios en las capturas de trimestres individuales y las varianzas, respectivamente, de las cuales fueron derivadas. (PDF contains 70 pages)

Whales and Sonar: Environmental Exemptions for the Navy's Mid-Frequency Active Sonar Training.

Mid-frequency active (MFA) sonar emits pulses of sound from an underwater transmitter to help determine the size, distance, and speed of objects. The sound waves bounce off objects and reflect back to underwater acoustic receivers as an echo. MFA sonar has been used since World War II, and the Navy indicates it is the only reliable way to track submarines, especially more recently designed submarines that operate more quietly, making them more difficult to detect. Scientists have asserted that sonar may harm certain marine mammals under certain conditions, especially beaked whales. Depending on the exposure, they believe that sonar may damage the ears of the mammals, causing hemorrhaging and/or disorientation. The Navy agrees that the sonar may harm some marine mammals, but says it has taken protective measures so that animals are not harmed. (PDF contains 20 pages)

Policy analysis of shoreline restoration options on private shorelines of Puget Sound

Puget Sound shorelines have historically provided a diversity of habitats that support a variety of aquatic resources throughout the region. These valued natural resources are iconic to the region and remain central to both the economic vitality and community appreciation of Puget Sound. Deterioration of upland and nearshore shoreline habitats, have placed severe stress on many aquatic resources within the region (PSAT, 2007). Since a majority of Washington State shorelines are privately owned, regulatory authority to legislate restoration on private property is limited in scope and frequency. Washington States’ Shoreline Management Act (RCW 90.58) requires local jurisdictions to plan for appropriate future shoreline uses. Under the Act, future development can be regulated to protect existing ecological functions, but lost functions cannot be restored without purchase or compensation of restored areas. Therefore, questions remains as to the ecological resilience of the region when considering cumulative effect of existing/ongoing shoreline development constrained by limited shoreline restoration opportunities. In light of these questions, this analysis will explore opportunities to promote restoration on privately owned shorelines within Puget Sound. These efforts are intended to promote more efficient ecosystem management and improve ecosystem-wide ecological functions. From an economics perspective, results of past shoreline management can generally be characterized as both market and government failure in effectively protecting the publics’ interest in maintaining healthy shoreline resources. Therefore coastal development has proceeded in spite of negative externalities and market imbalances resulting in inefficient resource management driven by the individual ambitions of private shoreline property owners to develop their property to their highest and best use. Federally derived property rights will protect continuation of existing uses along privately owned shorelines; therefore, a fundamental challenge remains in sustainable management of existing shoreline resources while also restoring ecological functions lost to past mistakes in an effort to increase the ecologic resiliency within the region. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Building a sustainable community of coastal leaders to deal with sea level rise and inundation

Sea level rise and inundation were stated to be the highest priorities in the community-developed Ocean Research Priorities Plan and Implementation Strategy in 2005. Although they remain stated priorities, very few resources have been allocated towards this challenge. Inundation poses a substantial risk to many coastal communities, and the risk is projected to increase because of continued development, changes in the frequency and intensity of inundation events, and acceleration in the rate of sea-level rise along our vulnerable shorelines. (PDF contains 4 pages) There is an increasing urgency for federal and state governments to focus on the local and regional levels and consistently provide the information, tools, and methods necessary for adaptation. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. A workshop held in December 2000 on coastal inundation and sea level rise proposes a shared framework that can help guide where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade.

If the tide is rising, who pays for the ark?

Two common goals of this meeting are to arrest the effects of sea level rise and other phenomena caused by Greenhouse Gases from anthropogenic sources ("GHG",) and to mitigate the effects. The fundamental questions are: (1) how to get there and (2) who should shoulder the cost? Given Washington gridlock, states, NGO's and citizens such as the Inupiat of the Village of Kivalina have turned to the courts for solutions. Current actions for public nuisance seek (1) to reduce and eventually eliminate GHG emissions, (2) damages for health effects and property damage—plus hundreds of millions in dollars spent to prepare for the foregoing. The U.S. Court of Appeals just upheld the action against the generators of some 10% of the CO2 emissions from human activities in the U.S., clearing the way for a trial featuring the state of the art scientific linkage between GHG production and the effects of global warming. Climate change impacts on coastal regions manifest most prominently through sea level rise and its impacts: beach erosion, loss of private and public structures, relocation costs, loss of use and accompanying revenues (e.g. tourism), beach replenishment and armoring costs, impacts of flooding during high water events, and loss of tax base. Other effects may include enhanced storm frequency and intensity, increased insurance risks and costs, impacts to water supplies, fires and biological changes through invasions or local extinctions (IPCC AR4, 2007; Okmyung, et al., 2007). There is an increasing urgency for federal and state governments to focus on the local and regional levels and consistently provide the information, tools, and methods necessary for adaptation. Calls for action at all levels acknowledge that a viable response must engage federal, state and local expertise, perspectives, and resources in a coordinated and collaborative effort. A workshop held in December 2000 on coastal inundation and sea level rise proposes a shared framework that can help guide where investments should be made to enable states and local governments to assess impacts and initiate adaptation strategies over the next decade. (PDF contains 5 pages)

An integrated approach for evaluating coastal vulnerability in a changing climate

Coastal hazards such as flooding and erosion threaten many coastal communities and ecosystems. With documented increases in both storm frequency and intensity and projected acceleration of sea level rise, incorporating the impacts of climate change and variability into coastal vulnerability assessments is becoming a necessary, yet challenging task. We are developing an integrated approach to probabilistically incorporate the impacts of climate change into coastal vulnerability assessments via a multi-scale, multi-hazard methodology. By examining the combined hazards of episodic flooding/inundation and storm induced coastal change with chronic trends under a range of future climate change scenarios, a quantitative framework can be established to promote more sciencebased decision making in the coastal zone. Our focus here is on an initial application of our method in southern Oregon, United States. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Integrating climate change impacts to improve understanding of coastal climate change: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas in coastal Hawaii, Alaska and the Pacific Northwest

Coastal storms, and the strong winds, heavy rains, and high seas that accompany them pose a serious threat to the lives and livelihoods of the peoples of the Pacific basin, from the tropics to the high latitudes. To reduce their vulnerability to the economic, social, and environmental risks associated with these phenomena (and correspondingly enhance their resiliency), decision-makers in coastal communities require timely access to accurate information that affords them an opportunity to plan and respond accordingly. This includes information about the potential for coastal flooding, inundation and erosion at time scales ranging from hours to years, as well as the longterm climatological context of this information. The Pacific Storms Climatology Project (PSCP) was formed in 2006 with the intent of improving scientific understanding of patterns and trends of storm frequency and intensity - “storminess”- and related impacts of these extreme events. The project is currently developing a suite of integrated information products that can be used by emergency managers, mitigation planners, government agencies and decision-makers in key sectors, including: water and natural resource management, agriculture and fisheries, transportation and communication, and recreation and tourism. The PSCP is exploring how the climate-related processes that govern extreme storm events are expressed within and between three primary thematic areas: heavy rains, strong winds, and high seas. To address these thematic areas, PSCP has focused on developing analyses of historical climate records collected throughout the Pacific region, and the integration of these climatological analyses with near-real time observations to put recent weather and climate events into a longer-term perspective.(PDF contains 4 pages)

The ecology of chalk-stream invertebrates studied in a recirculating stream

To study and qualify the factors influencing interactions between various trophic levels in natural hard-water streams, a recirculating artificial stream channel was constructed. This structure has enabled patterns of population change of stream fauna to be observed under partially controlled physical and chemical conditions. Initial colonization of the substratum by invertebrates and subsequent succession was studied along with depth distribution and growth and production studies of invertebrates.