In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

Shoreline erosion due to extreme storms and sea level rise

A summary is presented of research conducted on beach erosion associated with extreme storms and sea level rise. These results were developed by the author and graduate students under sponsorship of the University of Delaware Sea Grant Program. Various shoreline response problems of engineering interest are examined. The basis for the approach is a monotonic equilibrium profile of the form h = Ax2 /3 in which h is water depth at a distance x from the shoreline and A is a scale parameter depending primarily on sediment characteristics and secondarily on wave characteristics. This form is shown to be consistent with uniform wave energy dissipation per unit volume. The dependency of A on sediment size is quantified through laboratory and field data. Quasi-static beach response is examined to represent the effect of sea level rise. Cases considered include natural and seawalled profiles. To represent response to storms of realistic durations, a model is proposed in which the offshore transport is proportional to the "excess" energy dissipation per unit volume. The single rate constant in this model was evaluated based on large scale wave tank tests and confirmed with Hurricane Eloise pre- and post-storm surveys. It is shown that most hurricanes only cause 10% to 25% of the erosion potential associated with the peak storm tide and wave conditions. Additional applications include profile response employing a fairly realistic breaking model in which longshore bars are formed and long-term (500 years) Monte Carlo simulation including the contributions due to sea level rise and random storm occurrences. (PDF has 67 pages.)

Nutrient distributions for Georges Bank and adjacent waters in 1979

In this report we describe the temporal and spatial distributions of inorganic nutrients over Georges Bank and in adjacent waters and discuss major features with respect to tbe nutrient environments of pbytoplankton. Nitrate and orthophosphorus were rapidly depleted from the surface layer of much of the study area in spring, but major differences were found between the shallow areas on Georges Bank and the surrounding stratified waters. In the "well-mixed" area of Georges Bank, the depletion encompassed the entire water column and ammonium became the dominant form of inorganic nitrogen throughout. Dissolved silicon was depleted slowly over central Georges Bank, reaching a minimum concentration in September while orthophosphorus gradually increased during the summer. The nutrient environment of phytoplankton over central Georges Bank may be described as vertically uniform but temporally changing in the relative availability of the various nutrients. In areas that undergo stratification (e.g., the central Gulf of Maine), a quasi-steady state was established as the surface water layer formed, consisting of declining nutrient gradients from below the euphotic layer to the top of the water column. These intergrading nutrient environments are relatively stable through time. Destratification reintroduced nutrients to depleted areas beginning in October; however, dissolved silicon was again depleted over shallow Georges Bank in late autumn though nitrate remained abundant. Slope water has been found to enter the bottom layer of the Gulf of Maine via the Northeast Channel. High nutrient concentrations observed in the bottom water of the Northeast Channel are consistent with this mechanism being the nutrient source for the Gulf of Maine. (PDF file contains 40 pages.)