33 resultados para Probability of detection

em Aquatic Commons


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Most microbiological methods require culture to allow organisms to recover or to selectively increase, and target organisms are identified by growth on specific agar media. Many cultural methods take several days to complete and even then the results require confirmation. Alternative techniques include the use of chromogenic and fluorogenic substances to identify bacteria as they are growing, selective capture using antibodies after short periods of growth, molecular techniques, and direct staining with or without flow cytometry for enumeration and identification. Future microbiologists may not use culture but depend on the use of specific probes and sophisticated detection systems.

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This report describes a surveillance strategy to detect deepwater invasive species in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. A need for this strategy was identified in the Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument Management Plan and the Monument’s Draft Natural Resources Science Plan. This strategy focuses on detecting two species of concern, the octocoral Carijoa riisei and the red alga Hypnea musciformis. Most research on invasive species in the Hawaiian archipelago has focused on shallow water habitats within the limits of conventional SCUBA (0-30 m). Deeper habitats such as mesophotic reefs are much more difficult to access and consequently little is known about the distribution of deepwater invasive species or their impacts. Recent deepwater (>30 m) sightings of H. musciformis and C. riisei, in and near NWHI, respectively, have prompted a call for further research and surveillance of invasive species in deepwater habitats. This report compiles the most up to date information about these two species of concern in deepwater habitats. A literature search and conversations with subject matter experts was used to identify their current distribution, preferred habitat types, optimal detection methods and ways to efficiently sample the vast extent of NWHI. The proposed sampling strategy prioritizes survey effort where C. riisei and H. musciformis are most likely to be found. At coarse spatial scales (tens to hundreds of kilometers), opportunistic observations and distance from the Main Hawaiian Islands, a principal propagule source, are used to identify high-risk islands and banks. At fine spatial scales (meters to tens of kilometers) a habitat suitability model was developed to identify high-risk habitats. The habitat suitability model focused on habitat preferences of C. riisei, since the species is well studied and adequate data exists to map habitats. There was insufficient information to identify suitable habitat for H. muscifomis. Habitat preferences for the algae are poorly understood and there is a lack of data at relevant spatial scales to map those preferences which are known. The principal habitats identified by the habitat suitability model were ledges and the edges of rugose coral reefs, where the shade loving octocoral would likely be found. Habitat suitability maps were developed for seven atolls and banks to aid in survey site selection. The protocol relied on technical divers to conduct visual surveys of benthic habitats. It was developed to increase the efficiency of surveys, maximize the probability of detection, identify important information relevant to future surveys and standardize results. The strategy, model and protocol were tested during a field mission in 2009 at several atolls and islands in NWHI. The field mission did not detect any invasive species among deepwater habitats and much was learned to improve future surveys. Data gaps and improvements are discussed.

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Nonindigenous species (NIS) are a major threat to marine ecosystems, with possible dramatic effects on biodiversity, biological productivity, habitat structure and fisheries. The Papahānaumokuākea Marine National Monument (PMNM) has taken active steps to mitigate the threats of NIS in Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI). Of particular concern are the 13 NIS already detected in NWHI and two invasive species found among the main Hawaiian Islands, snowflake coral (Carijoa riseii) and a red alga (Hypnea musciformis). Much of the information regarding NIS in NWHI has been collected or informed by surveys using conventional SCUBA or fishing gear. These technologies have significant drawbacks. SCUBA is generally constrained to depths shallower than 40 m and several NIS of concern have been detected well below this limit (e.g., L. kasmira – 256 m) and fishing gear is highly selective. Consequently, not all habitats or species can be properly represented. Effective management of NIS requires knowledge of their spatial distribution and abundance over their entire range. Surveys which provide this requisite information can be expensive, especially in the marine environment and even more so in deepwater. Technologies which minimize costs, increase the probability of detection and are capable of satisfying multiple objectives simultaneously are desired. This report examines survey technologies, with a focus on towed camera systems (TCSs), and modeling techniques which can increase NIS detection and sampling efficiency in deepwater habitats of NWHI; thus filling a critical data gap in present datasets. A pilot study conducted in 2008 at French Frigate Shoals and Brooks Banks was used to investigate the application of TCSs for surveying NIS in habitats deeper than 40 m. Cost and data quality were assessed. Over 100 hours of video was collected, in which 124 sightings of NIS were made among benthic habitats from 20 to 250 m. Most sightings were of a single cosmopolitan species, Lutjanus kasmira, but Cephalopholis argus, and Lutjanus fulvus, were also detected. The data expand the spatial distributions of observed NIS into deepwater habitats, identify algal plain as an important habitat and complement existing data collected using SCUBA and fishing gear. The technology’s principal drawback was its inability to identify organisms of particular concern, such as Carijoa riseii and Hypnea musciformis due to inadequate camera resolution and inability to thoroughly inspect sites. To solve this issue we recommend incorporating high-resolution cameras into TCSs, or using alternative technologies, such as technical SCUBA diving or remotely operated vehicles, in place of TCSs. We compared several different survey technologies by cost and their ability to detect NIS and these results are summarized in Table 3.

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The relative abundance of Bristol Bay red king crab (Paralithodes camtschaticus) is estimated each year for stock assessment by using catch-per-swept-area data collected on the Alaska Fisheries Science Center’s annual eastern Bering Sea bottom trawl survey. To estimate survey trawl capture efficiency for red king crab, an experiment was conducted with an auxiliary net (fitted with its own heavy chain-link footrope) that was attached beneath the trawl to capture crabs escaping under the survey trawl footrope. Capture probability was then estimated by fitting a model to the proportion of crabs captured and crab size data. For males, mean capture probability was 72% at 95 mm (carapace length), the size at which full vulnerability to the survey trawl is assigned in the current management model; 84.1% at 135 mm, the legal size for the fishery; and 93% at 184 mm, the maximum size observed in this study. For females, mean capture probability was 70% at 90 mm, the size at which full vulnerability to the survey trawl is assigned in the current management model, and 77% at 162 mm, the maximum size observed in this study. The precision of our estimates for each sex decreased for juveniles under 60 mm and for the largest crab because of small sample sizes. In situ data collected from trawl-mounted video cameras were used to determine the importance of various factors associated with the capture of individual crabs. Capture probability was significantly higher when a crab was standing when struck by the footrope, rather than crouching, and higher when a crab was hit along its body axis, rather than from the side. Capture probability also increased as a function of increasing crab size but decreased with increasing footrope distance from the bottom and when artificial light was provided for the video camera.

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The center of low pressure of a tropical disturbance which moved northward in the Gulf of Mexico, reached land between Panama City and Port St. Joe, Florida, on September 20, 1969. This system was nearly stationary for 48 hours producing heavy rainfall in the Quincy-Havana area, 70-80 miles northeast of the center. Rainfall associated with the tropical disturbance exceeded 20 inches over a part of Gadsden County, Florida, during September 20 through 23, 1969, and the maximum rainfall of record occurred at Quincy with 10.87 inches during a 6-hour period on September 21. The 48-hour maximum of 17.71 inches exceeded the 1 in 100-year probability of 16 inches for a 7-day period. The previous maximum rainfall of record at Quincy (more than 12 inches) was on September 14-15, 1924. The characteristics of this historical storm were similar in path and effect to the September 1969 tropical disturbance. Peak runoff from a 1.4-square mile area near Midway, Florida, was 1,540 cfs (cubic feet per second) per square mile. A peak discharge of 45,600 cfs on September 22 at the gaging station on the Little River near Quincy exceeded the previous peak of 25,400 cfs which occurred on December 4, 1964. The peak discharge of 89,400 cfs at Ochlockonee River near Bloxham exceeded the April 1948 peak of 50,200 cfs, which was the previous maximum of record, by 1.8 times. Many flood-measurement sites had peak discharges in excess of that of a 50-year flood. Nearly $200,000 was spent on emergency repairs to roads. An additional $520,000 in contractual work was required to replace four bridges that were destroyed. Agricultural losses were estimated at $1,000,000. (44 page document)

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Diking and holding water on salt marshes ("impounding" the marsh) is a management technique used on Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge (MINWR) and elsewhere in the Southeast to: a) prevent the reproduction of saltmarsh mosquitos, and b) attract wintertering waterfowl and other marsh, shore, and wading birds. Because of concern that diking and holding water may interfere with the production of estuarine fish and shellfish, impoundment managers are being asked to consider altering management protocol to reduce or eliminate any such negative influence. How to change protocol and preserve effective mosquito control and wildlife management is a decision of great complexity because: a) the relationships between estuarine organisms and the fringing salt marshes at the land-water interface are complex, and b) impounded marshes are currently good habitat for a variety of species of fish and wildlife. Most data collection by scientists and managers in the area has not been focused on this particular problem. Furthermore, collection of needed data may not be possible before changes in protocol are demanded. Therefore, the purpose of this document is two-fold: 1) to suggest management alternatives, given existing information, and 2) to help identify research needs that have a high probability of leading to improved simultaneous management of mosquitos, waterfowl, other wildlife, freshwater fish, and estuarine fish and shellfish on the marshland of the Merritt Island National Wildlife Refuge. (92 page document)

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Evaluation of the potential for remote sensing to detect a relationship between wave action factors and plant re-establishment after a habitat enhancement at Lake Kissimmee, Florida. Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and remote sensing, wave action factors were found to be inversely related to the probability of plant re-establishment. However, correlation of wave action factors with areal coverage of aquatic plants based on field measurements, were unable to detect a significant relationship. Other factors aside from wave action, including littoral slope and the presence of offshore vegetation, may have influenced plant re-establishment in these sites. Remote sensing techniques may be useful to detect large changes in plants communities, however small changes in plant coverages may not be detectable using this technique.

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The requirement of setting annual catch limits to prevent overfishing has been added to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act of 2006 (MSRA). Because this requirement is new, a body of applied scientific practice for deriving annual catch limits and accompanying targets does not yet exist. This article demonstrates an approach to setting levels of catch that is intended to keep the probability of future overfishing at a preset low level. The proposed framework is based on stochastic projection with uncertainty in population dynamics. The framework extends common projection methodology by including uncertainty in the limit reference point and in management implementation, and by making explicit the risk of overfishing that managers consider acceptable. The approach is illustrated with application to gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a grouper that inhabits the waters off the southeastern United States. Although devised to satisfy new legislation of the MSRA, the framework has potential application to any fishery where the management goal is to limit the risk of overfishing by controlling catch.

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Executive Summary: Baseline characterization of resources is an essential part of marine protected area (MPA) management and is critical to inform adaptive management. Gray’s Reef National Marine Sanctuary (GRNMS) currently lacks adequate characterization of several key resources as identified in the 2006 Final Management Plan. The objectives of this characterization were to fulfill this need by characterizing the bottom fish, benthic features, marine debris, and the relationships among them for the different bottom types within the sanctuary: ledges, sparse live bottom, rippled sand, and flat sand. Particular attention was given to characterizing the different ledge types, their fish communities, and the marine debris associated with them given the importance of this bottom type to the sanctuary. The characterization has been divided into four sections. Section 1 provides a brief overview of the project, its relevance to sanctuary needs, methods of site selection, and general field procedures. Section 2 provides the survey methods, results, discussion, and recommendations for monitoring specific to the benthic characterization. Section 3 describes the characterization of marine debris. Section 4 is specific to the characterization of bottom fish. Field surveys were conducted during August 2004, May 2005, and August 2005. A total of 179 surveys were completed over ledge bottom (n=92), sparse live bottom (n=51), flat sand (n=20), and rippled sand (n=16). There were three components to each field survey: fish counting, benthic assessment, and quantification of marine debris. All components occurred within a 25 x 4 m belt transect. Two divers performed the transect at each survey site. One diver was responsible for identification of fish species, size, and abundance using a visual survey. The second diver was responsible for characterization of benthic features using five randomly placed 1 m2 quadrats, measuring ledge height and other benthic structures, and quantifying marine debris within the entire transect. GRNMS is composed of four main bottom types: flat sand, rippled sand, sparsely colonized live bottom, and densely colonized live bottom (ledges). Independent evaluation of the thematic accuracy of the GRNMS benthic map produced by Kendall et al. (2005) revealed high overall accuracy (93%). Most discrepancies between map and diver classification occurred during August 2004 and likely can be attributed to several factors, including actual map or diver errors, and changes in the bottom type due to physical forces. The four bottom types have distinct physical and biological characteristics. Flat and rippled sand bottom types were composed primarily of sand substrate and secondarily shell rubble. Flat sand and rippled sand bottom types were characterized by low percent cover (0-2%) of benthic organisms at all sites. Although the sand bottom types were largely devoid of epifauna, numerous burrows indicate the presence of infaunal organisms. Sparse live bottom and ledges were colonized by macroalgae and numerous invertebrates, including coral, gorgonians, sponges, and “other” benthic species (such as tunicates, anemones, and bryozoans). Ledges and sparse live bottom were similar in terms of diversity (H’) given the level of classification used here. However, percent cover of benthic species, with the exception of gorgonians, was significantly greater on ledge than on sparse live bottom. Percent biotic cover at sparse live bottom ranged from 0.7-26.3%, but was greater than 10% at only 7 out of 51 sites. Colonization on sparse live bottom is likely inhibited by shifting sands, as most sites were covered in a layer of sediment up to several centimeters thick. On ledge bottom type, percent cover ranged from 0.42-100%, with the highest percent cover at ledges in the central and south-central region of GRNMS. Biotic cover on ledges is influenced by local ledge characteristics. Cluster analysis of ledge dimensions (total height, undercut height, undercut width) resulted in three main categories of ledges, which were classified as short, medium, and tall. Median total percent cover was 97.6%, 75.1%, and 17.7% on tall, medium, and short ledges, respectively. Total percent cover and cover of macroalgae, sponges, and other organisms was significantly lower on short ledges compared to medium and tall ledges, but did not vary significantly between medium and tall ledges. Like sparse live bottom, short ledges may be susceptible to burial by sand, however the results indicate that ledge height may only be important to a certain threshold. There are likely other factors not considered here that also influence spatial distribution and community structure (e.g., small scale complexity, ocean currents, differential settlement patterns, and biological interactions). GRNMS is a popular site for recreational fishing and boating, and there has been increased concern about the accumulation of debris in the sanctuary and potential effects on sanctuary resources. Understanding the types, abundance, and distribution of debris is essential to improving debris removal and education efforts. Approximately two-thirds of all observed debris items found during the field surveys were fishing gear, and about half of the fishing related debris was monofilament fishing line. Other fishing related debris included leaders and spear gun parts, and non-gear debris included cans, bottles, and rope. The spatial distribution of debris was concentrated in the center of the sanctuary and was most frequently associated with ledges rather than at other bottom types. Several factors may contribute to this observation. Ledges are often targeted by fishermen due to the association of recreationally important fish species with this bottom type. In addition, ledges are structurally complex and are often densely colonized by biota, providing numerous places for debris to become stuck or entangled. Analysis of observed boat locations indicated that higher boat activity, which is an indication of fishing, occurs in the center of the sanctuary. On ledges, the presence and abundance of debris was significantly related to observed boat density and physiographic features including ledge height, ledge area, and percent cover. While it is likely that most fishing related debris originates from boats inside the sanctuary, preliminary investigation of ocean current data indicate that currents may influence the distribution and local retention of more mobile items. Fish communities at GRNMS are closely linked to benthic habitats. A list of species encountered, probability of occurrence, abundance, and biomass by habitat is provided. Species richness, diversity, composition, abundance, and biomass of fish all showed striking differences depending on bottom type with ledges showing the highest values of nearly all metrics. Species membership was distinctly separated by bottom type as well, although very short, sparsely colonized ledges often had a similar community composition to that of sparse live bottom. Analysis of fish communities at ledges alone indicated that species richness and total abundance of fish were positively related to total percent cover of sessile invertebrates and ledge height. Either ledge attribute was sufficient to result in high abundance or species richness of fish. Fish diversity (H`) was negatively correlated with undercut height due to schools of fish species that utilize ledge undercuts such as Pareques species. Concurrent analysis of ledge types and fish communities indicated that there are five distinct combinations of ledge type and species assemblage. These include, 1) short ledges with little or no undercut that lacked many of the undercut associated species except Urophycis earlii ; 2) tall, heavily colonized, deeply undercut ledges typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Mycteroperca sp., and Pareques sp.; 3) tall, heavily colonized but less undercut with high occurrence of Lagodon rhomboides and Balistes capriscus; 4) short, heavily colonized ledges typically with Centropristis ocyurus, Halichoeres caudalis, and Stenotomus sp.; and 5) tall, heavily colonized, less undercut typically with Archosargus probatocephalus, Caranx crysos and Seriola sp.. Higher levels of boating activity and presumably fishing pressure did not appear to influence species composition or abundance at the community level although individual species appeared affected. These results indicate that merely knowing the basic characteristics of a ledge such as total height, undercut width, and percent cover of sessile invertebrates would allow good prediction of not only species richness and abundance of fish but also which particular fish species assemblages are likely to occur there. Comparisons with prior studies indicate some major changes in the fish community at GRNMS over the last two decades although the causes of the changes are unknown. Species of interest to recreational fishermen including Centropristis striata, Mycteroperca microlepis, and Mycteroperca phenax were examined in relation to bottom features, areas of assumed high versus low fishing pressure, and spatial dispersion. Both Mycteroperca species were found more frequently when undercut height of ledges was taller. They often were found together in small mixed species groups at ledges in the north central and southwest central regions of the sanctuary. Both had lower mode size and proportion of fish above the fishery size limit in heavily fished areas of the sanctuary (i.e. high boat density) despite the presence of better habitat in that region. Black sea bass, C. striata, occurred at 98% of the ledges surveyed and appeared to be evenly distributed throughout the sanctuary. Abundance was best explained by a positive relationship with percent cover of sessile biota but was also negatively related to presence of either Mycteroperca species. This may be due to predation by the Mycteroperca species or avoidance of sites where they are present by C. striata. Suggestions for monitoring bottom features, marine debris, and bottom fish at GRNMS are provided at the end of each chapter. The present assessment has established quantitative baseline characteristics of many of the key resources and use issues at GRNMS. The methods can be used as a model for future assessments to track the trajectory of GRNMS resources. Belt transects are ideally suited to providing efficient and quantitative assessment of bottom features, debris, and fish at GRNMS. The limited visibility, sensitivity of sessile biota, and linear nature of ledge habitats greatly diminish the utility of other sampling techniques. Ledges should receive the bulk of future characterization effort due to their importance to the sanctuary and high variability in physical structure, benthic composition, and fish assemblages. (PDF contains 107 pages.)

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Analyses of blood and liver samples from live captured sea otters and liver samples from beachcast sea otter carcasses off the remote Washington coast indicate relatively low exposure to contaminants, but suggest that even at the low levels measured, exposure may be indicated by biomarker response. Evidence of pathogen exposure is noteworthy - infectious disease presents a potential risk to Washington sea otters, particularly due to their small population size and limited distribution. During 2001 and 2002, 32 sea otters were captured, of which 28 were implanted with transmitters to track their movements and liver and blood samples were collected to evaluate contaminant and pathogen exposure. In addition, liver samples from fifteen beachcast animals that washed ashore between 1991 and 2002 were analyzed to provide historical information and a basis of reference for values obtained from live otters. The results indicate low levels of metals, butyltins, and organochlorine compounds in the blood samples, with many of the organochlorines not detected except polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), and a few aromatic hydrocarbons detected in the liver of the live captured animals. Aliphatic hydrocarbons were measurable in the liver from the live captured animals; however, some of these are likely from biogenic sources. A significant reduction of vitamin A storage in the liver was observed in relation to PCB, dibutyltin and octacosane concentration. A significant and strong positive correlation in vitamin A storage in the liver was observed for cadmium and several of the aliphatic hydrocarbons. Peripheral blood mononuclear cell (PBMC) cytochrome P450 induction was elevated in two of 16 animals and may be potentially related to aliphatic and aromatic hydrocarbon exposure. Mean concentration of total butyltin in the liver of the Washington beach-cast otters was more than 15 times lower than the mean concentration reported by Kannan et al. (1998) for Southern sea otters in California. Organochlorine compounds were evident in the liver of beach-cast animals, despite the lack of large human population centers and development along the Washington coast. Concentrations of PCBs and chlordanes (e.g., transchlordane, cis-chlordane, trans-nonachlor, cis-nonachlor and oxychlordane) in liver of Washington beach-cast sea otters were similar to those measured in Aleutian and California sea otters, excluding those from Monterey Bay, which were higher. Mean concentrations of 1,1,1,- trichloro-2,2-bis(p-chlorophyenyl)ethanes (DDTs) were lower, and mean concentrations of cyclohexanes (HCH, e.g., alpha BHC, beta BHC, delta BHC and gamma BHC) were slightly higher in Washington beach-cast otters versus those from California and the Aleutians. Epidemiologically, blood tests revealed that 80 percent of the otters tested positive for morbillivirus and 60 percent for Toxoplasma, the latter of which has been a significant cause of mortality in Southern sea otters in California. This is the first finding of positive morbillivirus titers in sea otters from the Northeast Pacific. Individual deaths may occur from these diseases, perhaps more so when animals are otherwise immuno-compromised or infected with multiple diseases, but a population-threatening die-off from these diseases singly is unlikely while population immunity remains high. The high frequency of detection of morbillivirus and Toxoplasma in the live otters corresponds well with the cause of death of stranded Washington sea otters reported herein, which has generally been attributable to infectious disease. Washington’s sea otter population continues to grow, with over 1100 animals currently inhabiting Washington waters; however, the rate of growth has slowed over recent years. The population has a limited distribution and has not yet reached its carrying capacity and as such, is still considered at high risk to catastrophic events. (PDF contains 189 pages)

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The Olympic Coast National Marine Sanctuary (OCNMS) continues to invest significant resources into seafloor mapping activities along Washington’s outer coast (Intelmann and Cochrane 2006; Intelmann et al. 2006; Intelmann 2006). Results from these annual mapping efforts offer a snapshot of current ground conditions, help to guide research and management activities, and provide a baseline for assessing the impacts of various threats to important habitat. During the months of August 2004 and May and July 2005, we used side scan sonar to image several regions of the sea floor in the northern OCNMS, and the data were mosaicked at 1-meter pixel resolution. Video from a towed camera sled, bathymetry data, sedimentary samples and side scan sonar mapping were integrated to describe geological and biological aspects of habitat. Polygon features were created and attributed with a hierarchical deep-water marine benthic classification scheme (Greene et al. 1999). For three small areas that were mapped with both side scan sonar and multibeam echosounder, we made a comparison of output from the classified images indicating little difference in results between the two methods. With these considerations, backscatter derived from multibeam bathymetry is currently a costefficient and safe method for seabed imaging in the shallow (<30 meters) rocky waters of OCNMS. The image quality is sufficient for classification purposes, the associated depths provide further descriptive value and risks to gear are minimized. In shallow waters (<30 meters) which do not have a high incidence of dangerous rock pinnacles, a towed multi-beam side scan sonar could provide a better option for obtaining seafloor imagery due to the high rate of acquisition speed and high image quality, however the high probability of losing or damaging such a costly system when deployed as a towed configuration in the extremely rugose nearshore zones within OCNMS is a financially risky proposition. The development of newer technologies such as intereferometric multibeam systems and bathymetric side scan systems could also provide great potential for mapping these nearshore rocky areas as they allow for high speed data acquisition, produce precisely geo-referenced side scan imagery to bathymetry, and do not experience the angular depth dependency associated with multibeam echosounders allowing larger range scales to be used in shallower water. As such, further investigation of these systems is needed to assess their efficiency and utility in these environments compared to traditional side scan sonar and multibeam bathymetry. (PDF contains 43 pages.)

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Current information is reviewed that provides clues to the intraspecific structure of dolphin species incidently killed in the yellowfin tuna purse-seine fishery of the eastern tropical Pacific (ETP). Current law requires that management efforts are focused on the intraspecific level, attempting to preserve local and presumably locally adapted populations. Four species are reviewed: pantropical spotted, Stenella attenuata; spinner, S. longirostTis; striped, S. coeruleoalba; and common, Delphinus delphis, dolphins. For each species, distributional, demographic, phenotypic, and genotypic data are summarized, and the putative stocks are categorized based on four hierarchal phylogeographic criteria relative to their probability of being evolutionarily significant units. For spotted dolphins, the morphological similarity of animals from the south and the west argues that stock designations (and boundaries) be changed from the current northern offshore and southern offshore to northeastern offshore and a combined western and southern offshore. For the striped dolphin, we find little reason to continue the present division into geographical stocks. For common dolphins, we reiterate an earlier recommendation that the long-beaked form (Baja neritic) and the northern short-beaked form be managed separately; recent morphological and genetic work provides evidence that they are probably separate species. Finally, we note that the stock structure of ETP spinner dolphins is complex, with the whitebelly form exhibiting characteristics of a hybrid swarm between the eastern and pantropical subspecies. There is little morphological basis at present for division of the whitebelly spinner dolphin into northern and southern stocks. However, we recommend continued separate management of the pooled whitebelly forms, despite their hybrid/intergrade status. Steps should be taken to ensure that management practices do not reduce the abundance of eastern relative to whitebelly spinner dolphins. To do so may lead to increased invasion of the eastern's stock range and possible replacement of the eastern spinner dolphin genome.(PDF file contains 24 pages.)

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Restoration of water-bodies from eutrophication has proved to be extremely difficult. Mathematical models have been used extensively to provide guidance for management decisions. The aim of this paper is to elucidate important problems of using models for predicting environmental changes. First, the necessity for a proper uncertainty assessment of the model, upon calibration, has not been widely recognized. Predictions must not be a single time trajectory; they should be a band, expressing system uncertainty and natural variability. Availability of this information may alter the decision to be taken. Second, even with well-calibrated models, there is no guarantee they will give correct projections in situations where the model is used to predict the effects of measures designed to bring the system into an entirely different ”operating point”, as is typically the case in eutrophication abatement. The concept of educated speculation is introduced to partially overcome this difficulty. Lake Veluwe is used as a case to illustrate the point. Third, as questions become more detailed, such as ”what about expected algal composition”, there is a greater probability of running into fundamental problems that are associated with predicting the behaviour of complex non-linear systems. Some of these systems show extreme initial condition sensitivity and even, perhaps, chaotic behaviour, and are therefore fundamentally unpredictable.

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Hatchling American Alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) produced from artificially incubated wild eggs were returned to their natal areas (repatriated). We compared artificially incubated and repatriated hatchlings released within and outside the maternal alligator’s home range with naturally incubated hatchlings captured and released within the maternal alligator’s home range on Lake Apopka, Lake Griffin, and Orange Lake in Florida. We used probability of recapture and total length at approximately nine months after hatching as indices of survival and growth rates. Artificially incubated hatchlings released outside of the maternal alligator’s home range had lower recapture probabilities than either naturally incubated hatchlings or artificially incubated hatchlings released near the original nest site. Recapture probabilities of other treatments did not differ significantly. Artificially incubated hatchlings were approximately 6% shorter than naturally incubated hatchlings at approximately nine months after hatching. We concluded that repatriation of hatchlings probably would not have long-term effects on populations because of the resiliency of alligator populations to alterations of early age-class survival and growth rates of the magnitude that we observed. Repatriation of hatchlings may be an economical alternative to repatriation of older juveniles for population restoration. However, the location of release may affect subsequent survival and growth.

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The angling season for non-migratory brown trout, in the Environment Agency (EA) North West Region, runs from March 15th to September 30th. Each year, large numbers of farm reared brown trout are stocked into the rivers of the North West Region's Central Area. In 1994, approximately 20,000 brown trout were introduced into the River systems of the Lune, Wyre and Ribble by local angling clubs and fishery owners. Most of these fish were stocked at a length greater than that defined by local byelaws as the takeable size (200mm). Introductions are made to supplement the existing wild brown trout populations within the river and increase the probability of an angler catching a fish. Stocking with fish of a sufficient length allows the successful angler to remove the catch for their own use. In this way, stretches of the rivers are effectively managed as "put and take" fisheries for brown trout. A number of brown trout fingerlings are also introduced each year by angling clubs and fishery owners. These are stocked with the expectation that the fish will survive in the river to grow, over-winter, and eventually attain a takable size with an increased degree of "wildness". The lower cost of fingerlings, as opposed to trout of a takable length, makes their introduction more attractive to angling clubs since a greater number can be stocked for a given cost. Although the practise of stocking brown trout has occurred for many years in the Central Area, there is little information of its success in terms of increasing anglers catches, or the survival offish introduced. This study was initiated to determine the recapture rates by angling of brown trout following their introduction into a river fishery. The information gained from this study can then be used to give guidance to angling clubs and fishery owners on the optimal strategies for stocking fish.