Daily rainfall along the United States Pacific Coast appears to conform to a square-root normal probability distribution

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): As part of a study of climatic influences on landslide initiation, a statistical analysis of long-term (>40 years) records of daily rainfall from 24 Pacific coastal stations, from San Diego to Cape Flattery, disclosed an unexpected result - the square root of the daily rainfall closely approximates a normal distribution function. ... This paper illustrates the use of the square-root-normal distribution to analyze variations in precipitation along the mainland United States Pacific Coast with examples of orographic enhancement, rain shadows, and increase in precipitation frequency with geographic latitude.

An environmentally based growth model that uses finite difference calculus with maximum likelihood method: its application to the brackish water bivalve Corbicula japonica in Lake Abashiri, Japan

We present a growth analysis model that combines large amounts of environmental data with limited amounts of biological data and apply it to Corbicula japonica. The model uses the maximum-likelihood method with the Akaike information criterion, which provides an objective criterion for model selection. An adequate distribution for describing a single cohort is selected from available probability density functions, which are expressed by location and scale parameters. Daily relative increase rates of the location parameter are expressed by a multivariate logistic function with environmental factors for each day and categorical variables indicating animal ages as independent variables. Daily relative increase rates of the scale parameter are expressed by an equation describing the relationship with the daily relative increase rate of the location parameter. Corbicula japonica grows to a modal shell length of 0.7 mm during the first year in Lake Abashiri. Compared with the attain-able maximum size of about 30 mm, the growth of juveniles is extremely slow because their growth is less susceptible to environmental factors until the second winter. The extremely slow growth in Lake Abashiri could be a geographical genetic variation within C. japonica.

Parameterizing probabilities for estimating age-composition distributions for mixture models

When estimating parameters that constitute a discrete probability distribution {pj}, it is difficult to determine how constraints should be made to guarantee that the estimated parameters { pˆj} constitute a probability distribution (i.e., pˆj>0, Σ pˆj =1). For age distributions estimated from mixtures of length-at-age distributions, the EM (expectationmaximization) algorithm (Hasselblad, 1966; Hoenig and Heisey, 1987; Kimura and Chikuni, 1987), restricted least squares (Clark, 1981), and weak quasisolutions (Troynikov, 2004) have all been used. Each of these methods appears to guarantee that the estimated distribution will be a true probability distribution with all categories greater than or equal to zero and with individual probabilities that sum to one. In addition, all these methods appear to provide a theoretical basis for solutions that will be either maximum-likelihood estimates or at least convergent to a probability distribut

In search of climate effects on Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) stock off the U.S. Atlantic coast with Bayesian state-space biomass dynamic models

Atlantic Croaker (Micropogonias undulatus) production dynamics along the U.S. Atlantic coast are regulated by fishing and winter water temperature. Stakeholders for this resource have recommended investigating the effects of climate covariates in assessment models. This study used state-space biomass dynamic models without (model 1) and with (model 2) the minimum winter estuarine temperature (MWET) to examine MWET effects on Atlantic Croaker population dynamics during 1972–2008. In model 2, MWET was introduced into the intrinsic rate of population increase (r). For both models, a prior probability distribution (prior) was constructed for r or a scaling parameter (r0); imputs were the fishery removals, and fall biomass indices developed by using data from the Multispecies Bottom Trawl Survey of the Northeast Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, and the Coastal Trawl Survey of the Southeast Area Monitoring and Assessment Program. Model sensitivity runs incorporated a uniform (0.01,1.5) prior for r or r0 and bycatch data from the shrimp-trawl fishery. All model variants produced similar results and therefore supported the conclusion of low risk of overfishing for the Atlantic Croaker stock in the 2000s. However, the data statistically supported only model 1 and its configuration that included the shrimp-trawl fishery bycatch. The process errors of these models showed slightly positive and significant correlations with MWET, indicating that warmer winters would enhance Atlantic Croaker biomass production. Inconclusive, somewhat conflicting results indicate that biomass dynamic models should not integrate MWET, pending, perhaps, accumulation of longer time series of the variables controlling the production dynamics of Atlantic Croaker, preferably including winter-induced estimates of Atlantic Croaker kills.

A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

Effect of environmental conditions on the distribution of Pacific mackerel (Scomber japonicus) larvae in the California Current system

We modeled the probability of capturing Pacif ic mackerel (Scomber japonicus) larvae as a function of environmental variables for the Southern California Bight (SCB) most years from 1951 through 2008 and Mexican waters offshore of Baja California from 1951 through 1984. The model exhibited acceptable fit, as indicated by the area under a receiver-operating-characteristic curve of 0.80 but was inconsistent with the zero catches that occurred frequently in the 2000s. Two types of spawners overlapped spatially within the survey area: those that exhibited peak spawning during April in the SCB at about 15.5°C and a smaller group that exhibited peak spawning in August near Punta Eugenia, Mexico, at 20°C or greater. The SCB generally had greater zooplankton than Mexican waters but less appropriate (lower) geostrophic f lows. Mexican waters generally exhibited greater predicted habitat quality than the SCB in cold years. Predicted quality of the habitat in the SCB was greater from the 1980s to 2008 than in the earlier years of the survey primarily because temperatures and geostrophic flows were more appropriate for larvae. However, stock size the previous year had a larger effect on predictions than any environmental variable, indicating that larval Pacific mackerel did not fully occupy the suitable habitat during most years.

Distribution and biology of prowfish (Zaprora silenus) in the northeast Pacific

The prowfish (Zaprora silenus) is an infrequent component of bottom trawl catches collected on stock assessment surveys. Based on presence or absence in over 40,000 trawl catches taken throughout Alaskan waters southward to southern California, prowfish are most frequently encountered in the Gulf of Alaska and the Aleutian Islands at the edge of the continental shelf. Based on data from two trawl surveys, relative abundance indicated by catch per swept area reaches a maximum between 100 m and 200 m depth and is much higher in the Aleutian Islands than in the Gulf of Alaska. Females weigh 3.7% more than males of the same length. Weight-length functions are W (g) = 0.0164 L2.92 (males) and W = 0.0170 L2.92 (females). Length at age does not differ between sexes and is described by L = 89.3(1 – e–0.181(t+0.554)), where L is total length in cm and t is age in years. Females reached 50% maturity at a length of 57.0 cm and an age of 5.1 years. Prowfish diet is almost entirely composed of gelatinous zooplankton, primarily scyphozoa and salps.

Impacts of environmental conditions on macrobenthic distribution along the Suez Gulf, Egypt

Increases in coastal development and human activities leading to sedimentation degrade the quality of water; disturb the natural structure and functions of aquatic communities. The Suez Gulf is a large semi-closed area (~625 km long coastline).The assemblages of bottom fauna were studied qualitatively and quantitatively in the shallow intertidal waters along the western coast of the Suez Gulf. The quality of seawater and sediment structures were analyzed. The distribution of macro-benthos included a total of 38 species of Gastropoda and 9 Bivalvia; and 25 species from the other invertebrates included 7 groups namely, Rhizostoma, Polychaeta, Cirripedia, Amphipoda, Isopoda, Decapoda and Echinodermata. The most dominant group among invertebrate groups was the Polychaeta which included 4 species: Hydroides elegans, Perinereis cultilifera, Perinereis nuntia and Ophelina acuminata. The Cirripedia were represented by 3 species namely, Balanus amphitrite, Chithamalus challengeri and Tetraclita squamosa. The variations in the numerical abundance and biomass of bottom fauna studied between the observation periods and at sampling sites. There was a marked increase in benthos biomass at St. IV (Ras Gharib) yielding an average of 318.8 g/m² in which the gastropod community represented the dominant species in collected samples reaching 270.28 g/m² (84.4% of the total biomass) and numerically numbered 116 ind./m². Veliger larvae of bivalves and gastropods appeared to be present in the plankton for long periods and their production seems to be continuous throughout the year. In the intertidal zone of the Suez Gulf, the values of pH varied within narrow limits. Water temperature and salinity seemed to be important in the distribution and abundance of the macro-benthos communities in the study areas. The organic content in shallow intertidal waters and sediments indicated high values in the central part of the Gulf of Suez.

Study of density, distribution and yield on benthic fauna and brown trout (Salmo trutta fario) feeding in Laar reservoirs

Lar lake, with the international UTM specification of 39S 579680 3976567 & 39S 589930 3976184 is Situated in Lar national Park with an aerial distance of 55 Km of Tehran along Haraz road. The present research is carried out as part of a comprehensives Plan for assessment of bioresearches of Lar lake & the rivers flowing into it. This research includes examination of there benthic Samplings performed in Lar lake and each of the related rivers including Delichaee, Ab-e-sefid , Alarm & Lar (Kamardasht).Tubifex and Chironomus genus were found to have the highest frequencies of occurrence in the lake with %77.117 & %21.823 respectively followed by Chironomidae and Simulidae from the Diptera order which accounted for %72.328 and %13.812 occurrences in four rivers examined in the Study. The benthic biomass at various examined Sites and the average wet weight of the benthic biomass in station No one in the lake Was 17.397g and the figure for the examined site in Alarm was 20.242 g which were the highest level among Other examination stations the index for the abundance of species in Alarm river was greater than the rest of the examined rivers with 12.57. A sum of 354 Pieces of brown trouts was caught in the course of sampling which were closely investigated in terms of their digestive tract Content. It was identified that Daphniidae and Chironomus constituted the bulk of eaten items from the lake with %17.985 and %63.973 respectively. Meanwhile, Chironomidae and Simuladae were the most frequently eanten benthos by the fish with %81.47 and %7.93 respectively.The index for the relative length of gut was recorded at 0.49± 0.08 which is well indicative of the carnivorous diet of the fish.The index for the feeding intensity amounted to 138  83 showing that the one year old fish were of more feeding intensity.The coefficient of condition (K) was estimated at 1.02  0.142 for all the caught fish. The average wet weight of the benthos was 10.348 g per square meter which if extended to 700ha surface area of the lake, the total macrobenthic production in the lake would amount to 72730Kg of wet weight or 6510 Kg of dry weight. Since the Secondary Production of macrobenthos have always been double that of their biomass, it is reasonable to assume that the Secondary Production of macrobenthos amount to 145640 Kg by their wet weight and Since the energy transfer in the food chain of the lake from benthos to fish is 10 percent, the fish production Capacity Coming from benthic resources of the lake (Lar) would be 14.5 MT, half of which (7000-8000MT) could annually be harvested. Further more, the actual fish Production Capacity might exceed the projected level Since Daphnia, Rotifers and Ostracoda which belong to Zooplanktons, play a part in the natural diet of trout. Meanwhile, rivers Play a major role in fish nutrition and the annual fish production in Delichaee river is about 4481.8Kg while the figures for Ab-e-sefid, Alerm and Lar rivers are 2370.7 4848.7 and 2586.2 Kg respectively, that further increase fish Production in the area and every year half of these resources can be exploitable from the river & the lake.Nevertheless, due to ecological & biological importance of rivers and the probability of environmental Pollution, devastation of natural fish habitats & their nursery grounds, Sport fishing is not recommended at all.