Parameterizing probabilities for estimating age-composition distributions for mixture models

When estimating parameters that constitute a discrete probability distribution {pj}, it is difficult to determine how constraints should be made to guarantee that the estimated parameters { pˆj} constitute a probability distribution (i.e., pˆj>0, Σ pˆj =1). For age distributions estimated from mixtures of length-at-age distributions, the EM (expectationmaximization) algorithm (Hasselblad, 1966; Hoenig and Heisey, 1987; Kimura and Chikuni, 1987), restricted least squares (Clark, 1981), and weak quasisolutions (Troynikov, 2004) have all been used. Each of these methods appears to guarantee that the estimated distribution will be a true probability distribution with all categories greater than or equal to zero and with individual probabilities that sum to one. In addition, all these methods appear to provide a theoretical basis for solutions that will be either maximum-likelihood estimates or at least convergent to a probability distribut

Estimates of survival probabilities for oceanic-stage loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) in the North Atlantic

Estimates of instantaneous mortality rates (Z) and annual apparent survival probabilities (Φ) were generated from catch-curve analyses for oceanic-stage juvenile loggerheads (Caretta caretta) in the waters of the Azores. Two age distributions were analyzed: the “total sample” of 1600 loggerheads primarily captured by sighting and dipnetting from a variety of vessels in the Azores between 1984 and 1995 and the “tuna sample” of 733 loggerheads (a subset of the total sample) captured by sighting and dipnetting from vessels in the commercial tuna fleet in the Azores between 1990 and 1992. Because loggerhead sea turtles begin to emigrate from oceanic to neritic habitats at age 7, the best estimates of instantaneous mortality rate (0.094) and annual survival probability (0.911) not confounded with permanent emigration were generated for age classes 2 through 6. These estimates must be interpreted with caution because of the assumptions upon which catch-curve analyses are based. However, these are the first directly derived estimates of mortality and survival probabilities for oceanic-stage sea turtles. Estimation of survival probabilities was identified as “an immediate and critical requirement” in 2000 by the Turtle Expert Working Group of the U.S. National Marine Fisheries Service.

Simulating the Lateral Transport of lchthyoplankton in the Potomac Estuary

Previous simulations of potential ichthyoplankton entrainment by power generating stations on the Potomac estuary have not included the influence of lateral transport in distributing eggs and larvae over the nursery area. Therefore, two-dimensional, vertically-averaged hydrodynamic and kinematic models of passive organism transport were developed to represent advective and dispersive processes near the proposed Douglas Point Nuclear Generating Station. Although the more refined model did not substantially alter the estimate of ichthyoplankton entrainment, it did reveal that lateral inhomogeneities in hydrodynamics could engender several fold differences in entrainment probabilities on opposite sides of the estuary. Models of higher resolution and greater biological detail did not project greater total entrainment by the Douglas Point plant, because the volume of nontidal flow past the site was large in comparison to the proposed rate of cooling water withdrawal.

Herpetofaunal Inventories of the National Parks of South Florida and the Caribbean: Volume II. Virgin Islands National Park

Amphibian declines and extinctions have been documented around the world, often in protected natural areas. Concern for this alarming trend has focused attention on the need to document all species of amphibians that occur within U.S. National Parks and to search for any signs that amphibians may be declining. This study, an inventory of amphibian species in Virgin Islands National Park, was conducted from 2001 to 2003. The goals of the project were to create a georeferenced inventory of amphibian species, use new analytical techniques to estimate proportion of sites occupied by each species, look for any signs of amphibian decline (missing species, disease, die-offs, etc.), and to establish a protocol that could be used for future monitoring efforts. Several sampling methods were used to accomplish these goals. Visual encounter surveys and anuran vocalization surveys were conducted in all habitats throughout the park to estimate the proportion of sites or proportion of area occupied (PAO) by amphibian species in each habitat. Line transect methods were used to estimate density of some amphibian species and double observer analysis was used to refine counts based on detection probabilities. Opportunistic collections were used to augment the visual encounter methods for rare species. Data were collected during four sampling periods and every major trail system throughout the park was surveyed. All of the amphibian species believed to occur on St. John were detected during these surveys. One species not previously reported, the Cuban treefrog (Osteopilus septentrionalis), was also added to the species list. That species and two others (Eleutherodactylus coqui and Eleutherodactylus lentus) bring the total number of introduced amphibians on St. John to three. We detected most of the reptile species thought to occur on St. John, but our methods were less suitable for reptiles compared to amphibians. No amphibian species appear to be in decline at this time. We found no evidence of disease or of malformations. Our surveys provide a snapshot picture of the status of the amphibian species, so continued monitoring would be necessary to determine long-term trends, but several potential threats to amphibians were identified. Invasive species, especially the Cuban treefrog, have the potential to decrease populations of native amphibians. Introduced mammalian predators are also a potential threat, especially to the reptiles of St. John, and mammalian grazers might have indirect effects on amphibians and reptiles through habitat modification. Finally, loss of habitat to development outside the park boundary could harm some important populations of amphibians and reptiles on the island.

Trapping success and population analysis of Siren lacertina and Amphiuma means

Siren and Amphiuma are two poorly known genera of aquatic salamanders that occur in the Southeastern United States. A primarily bottom-dwelling existence makes these salamanders difficult to detect with conventional sampling methodologies. Therefore, the current status of their populations is unknown. I compared the capture success of modified crayfish traps and plastic minnow traps in capturing these salamanders. In addition, a mark-recapture study of S. lacertina (Greater siren) and A. means (Two-toed amphiuma) was conducted at Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (southern Georgia) and at Katharine Ordway Preserve (north-central Florida) from August 2001 until September 2002. Crayfish traps were much more successful than minnow traps in catching siren and amphiuma. Crayfish traps yielded 270 captures for an overall capture success of 16%, whereas minnow traps yielded only 13 captures for an overall success rate of 0.05%. In addition, several marking techniques were evaluated, and of these, only passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags were retained for the duration of the study. Therefore, I recommend this marking technique for long-term monitoring of S. lacertina and A. means. Several variables were found to have significant effects on capture rates of salamanders. A. means were most often captured in summer and the number of captures was positively correlated with water temperature, water level, and rainfall. S. lacertina were most often captured during winter and spring. Number of captures was negatively correlated with water temperature, while no relationship was found with water level or rainfall. Trap day and baiting had no significant effect on number of A. means or S. lacertina captured. Recapture probabilities of both species were low, 0.025-0.03 for S. lacertina and 0.08-0.11 for A. means. Monthly survival rates were high, 0.77-0.97 for A. means and 0.88-1.00 for S. lacertina. Density estimates of 1.3 salamanders/m2 (S. lacertina) and 0.28 salamanders/m2 (A. means) were obtained for Lake Suggs using Jolly-Seber models. Siren and amphiuma make up a substantial part of wetland biomass and can impact many other wetland species. Thus, more attention must be focused on evaluating and monitoring their populations.

Survival and Growth of American Alligator (Alligator mississippiensis) hatchlings after artificial incubation and repatriation

Hatchling American Alligators (Alligator mississippiensis) produced from artificially incubated wild eggs were returned to their natal areas (repatriated). We compared artificially incubated and repatriated hatchlings released within and outside the maternal alligator’s home range with naturally incubated hatchlings captured and released within the maternal alligator’s home range on Lake Apopka, Lake Griffin, and Orange Lake in Florida. We used probability of recapture and total length at approximately nine months after hatching as indices of survival and growth rates. Artificially incubated hatchlings released outside of the maternal alligator’s home range had lower recapture probabilities than either naturally incubated hatchlings or artificially incubated hatchlings released near the original nest site. Recapture probabilities of other treatments did not differ significantly. Artificially incubated hatchlings were approximately 6% shorter than naturally incubated hatchlings at approximately nine months after hatching. We concluded that repatriation of hatchlings probably would not have long-term effects on populations because of the resiliency of alligator populations to alterations of early age-class survival and growth rates of the magnitude that we observed. Repatriation of hatchlings may be an economical alternative to repatriation of older juveniles for population restoration. However, the location of release may affect subsequent survival and growth.

Evidence of hook competition in longline surveys

Catch rates from surveys are used as indices of abundance for many fish species. Relative abundance estimates from surveys with longline gear do not usually account for possible effects of gear saturation, which potentially creates competition among fish for baited hooks and misrepresentations of abundance trends. We examined correlations between catch rates of sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) and giant grenadier (Albatrossia pectoralis) and between sablefish and shortraker (Sebastes borealis) and rougheye rockfish (Sebastes aleutianus) from 25 years of longline surveys in Alaska waters for evidence of competition for hooks. Sablefish catch rates were negatively correlated with giant grenadier catch rates in all management areas in Alaskan waters, and sablefish and rockfish were negatively correlated in five of the six areas, indicating that there is likely competition for hooks during longline surveys. Comparative analyses were done for trawl survey catch rates, and no negative correlations were observed, indicating that the negative correlations on the longline surveys are not due to differing habitat preferences or direct competition. Available adjustments for gear saturation may be biased if the probability of capture does not decrease linearly with baited hooks. A better understanding of each fish species’ catch probabilities on longline gear are needed before adjustments for hook competition can be made.

Effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean off Java

The effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation events on catches of Bigeye Tuna (Thunnus obesus) in the eastern Indian Ocean (EIO) off Java were evaluated through the use of remotely sensed environmental data (sea-surface-height anomaly [SSHA], sea-surface temperature [SST], and chlorophyll a concentration), and Bigeye Tuna catch data. Analyses were conducted for the period of 1997–2000, which included the 1997–98 El Niño and 1999–2000 La Niña events. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) was applied to examine oceanographic parameters quantitatively. The relationship of those parameters to variations in catch distribution of Bigeye Tuna was explored with a generalized additive model (GAM). The mean hook rate was 0.67 during El Niño and 0.44 during La Niña, and catches were high where SSHA ranged from –21 to 5 cm, SST ranged from 24°C to 27.5°C, and chlorophyll-a concentrations ranged from 0.04 to 0.16 mg m–3. The EOF analysis confirmed that the 1997–98 El Niño affected oceanographic conditions in the EIO off Java. The GAM results indicated that SST was better than the other environmental factors (SSHA and chlorophyll-a concentration) as an oceanographic predictor of Bigeye Tuna catches in the region. According to the GAM predictions, the highest probabilities (70–80%) for Bigeye Tuna catch in 1997–2000 occurred during oceanographic conditions during the 1997–98 El Niño event.

Modeling the effect of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) on the population viability of Sacramento River winter-run chinook salmon (Onchorhynchus tshawytscha)

We estimated the impact of striped bass (Morone saxatilis) predation on winter-run chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) with a Bayesian population dynamics model using striped bass and winter-run chinook salmon population abundance data. Winter-run chinook salmon extinction and recovery probabilities under different future striped bass abundance levels were estimated by simulating from the posterior distribution of model parameters. The model predicts that if the striped bass population declines to 512,000 adults as expected in the absence of stocking, winter-run chinook salmon will have about a 28% chance of quasi-extinction (defined as three consecutive spawning runs of fewer than 200 adults) within 50 years. If stocking stabilizes the striped bass population at 700,000 adults, the predicted quasi-extinction probability is 30%. A more ambitious stocking program that maintains a population of 3 million adult striped bass would increase the predicted quasi-extinction probability to 55%. Extinction probability, but not recovery probability, was fairly insensitive to assumptions about density dependence. We conclude that winter-run chinook salmon face a serious extinction risk without augmentation of the striped bass population and that substantial increases in striped bass abundance could significantly increase the threat to winter-run chi-nook salmon if not mitigated by increasing winter chinook salmon survival in some other way.

Reproductive biology of the blue swimmer crab (Portunus pelagicus, Decapoda: Portunidae) in five bodies of water on the west coast of Australia

Portunus pelagicus was collected at regular intervals from two marine embayments and two estuaries on the lower west coast of Australia and from a large embayment located approximately 800 km farther north. The samples were used to obtain data on the reproductive biology of this species in three very different environments. Unlike females, the males show a loosening of the attachment of the abdominal flap to the cephalothorax at a prepubertal rather than a pubertal molt. Males become gonadally mature (spermatophores and seminal fluid present in the medial region of the vas deferentia) at a very similar carapace width (CW) to that at which they achieve morphometric maturity, as reflected by a change in the relative size of the largest cheliped. Logistic curves, derived from the prevalence of mature male P. pelagicus, generally had wider confidence limits with morphometric than with gonadal data. This presumably reflects the fact that the morphometric (allometric) method of classifying a male P. pelagicus as mature employs probabilities and is thus indirect, whereas gonadal structure allows a mature male to be readily identified. However, the very close correspondence between the CW50’s derived for P. pelagicus by the two methods implies that either method can be used for management purposes. Portunus pelagicus attained maturity at a significantly greater size in the large embayment than in the four more southern bodies of water, where water temperatures were lower and the densities of crabs and fishing pressure were greater. As a result of the emigration of mature female P. pelagicus from estuaries, the CW50’s derived by using the prevalence of mature females in estuaries represent overestimates for those populations as a whole. Estimates of the number of egg batches produced in a spawning season ranged from one in small crabs to three in large crabs. These data, together with the batch fecundities of different size crabs, indicate that the estimated number of eggs produced by P. pelagicus during the spawning season ranges from about 78,000 in small crabs (CW=80 mm) to about 1,000,000 in large crabs (CW=180 mm).

Population dynamics of the ribbon fish, Lepturacanthus savala (Cuvier 1829) from the north-eastern part of the Bay of Bengal

Population parameters of Lepturacanthus savala from the trawl catches in the north-eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, Bangladesh were investigated based on length frequency data, using complete ELEFAN computer program. The asymptotic length (Lα) and growth constant (K) were estimated to be 106.50 cm (total length) and 0.80/year respectively. Based on these growth parameters, the total mortality (Z) was estimated to be 1.89. The estimated values for natural mortality (M) and fishing mortality (F) were 1.08 and 0.81 respectively. The estimated value for the exploitation rate (E) using the length converted catch curve was 0.43. The recruitment pattern showed two peaks per year. The estimated sizes of L. savala at 25, 50 and 75% probabilities of capture were 57.49, 60.39 and 63.28 cm respectively. The estimated length weight relationship for combined sex was W=0.00093 TL(super)2.97