A prior for steepness in stock-recruitment relationships, based on an evolutionary persistence principle

Priors are existing information or beliefs that are needed in Bayesian analysis. Informative priors are important in obtaining the Bayesian posterior distributions for estimated parameters in stock assessment. In the case of the steepness parameter (h), the need for an informative prior is particularly important because it determines the stock-recruitment relationships in the model. However, specifications of the priors for the h parameter are often subjective. We used a simple population model to derive h priors based on life history considerations. The model was based on the evolutionary principle that persistence of any species, given its life history (i.e., natural mortality rate) and its exposure to recruitment variability, requires a minimum recruitment compensation that enables the species to rebound consistently from low critical abundances (Nc). Using the model, we derived the prior probability distributions of the h parameter for fish species that have a range of natural mortality, recruitment variabilities, and Nt values.

Report of the Study Group on “Ecosystem-Based Management Science and its application to the North Pacific”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION OVERVIEW OF INTERNATIONAL EBM HISTORY References CANADA Overview Activities to date Integrated Management implementation in Canada Objectives, indicators and reference points Assessment approaches Research directions for the future Management directions for the future References JAPAN Overview Conservation and sustainable use of marine living resources Harvest control by TAC system Stock Recovery Plan and effort regulation system Stock enhancement by hatchery-produced juvenile release Conservation and sustainable develop-ment on coastal waters The implementation of ecosystem-based management PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF CHINA Overview Current actions Output control Input control Summer fishing ban Enhance ecosystem health REPUBLIC OF KOREA Initiatives and actions of ecosystem-based management in Korea Current ecosystem-based management initiatives in Korea Precautionary TAC-based fishery management Closed fishing season/areas Fish size- and sex-controls Fishing gear design restrictions Marine protected areas (MPA) RUSSIA Existing and anticipated ecosystem-based management initiatives Issues related to the implementation of ecosystem-based management UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Definitions and approaches to ecosystem-based fishery management in the United States Present U.S. legislative mandates relating to ecosystem-based fishery management Target species Bycatch species Threatened or endangered species Habitats Food webs Ecosystems Integration of legislative mandates into an ecosystem approach Scientific issues in implementing ecosystem-based approaches References DISCUSSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS APPENDICES Appendix 10.1 Study group membership and participants Appendix 10.2 Terminology definitions Appendix 10.3 Present state of implementing ecosystem-based fishery management in Alaska: Alaska groundfish fisheries Appendix 10.4 Present state of implementing ecosystem-based fishery management off the West Coast of the United States: Pacific Coast groundfish fisheries Appendix 10.5 Descriptions of multi-species and ecosystem models developed or under development in the U.S. North Pacific region that might be used to predict effects of fishing on ecosystems Appendix 10.6 A potential standard reporting format (developed by Australia, and currently being used by the U.S.A in their contribution to this report) (83 page document)