Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

Lessons from the breeding program on common carp in Hungary

Common carp is one of the most important cultured freshwater fish species in the world. Its production in freshwater areas is the second largest in Europe after rainbow trout. Common carp production in Europe was 146,845 t in 2004 (FAO Fishstat Plus 2006). Common carp production is concentrated mainly in Central and Eastern Europe. In Hungary, common carp has been traditionally cultured in earthen ponds since the late 19th century, following the sharp drop in catches from natural waters, due to the regulation of main river systems. Different production technologies and unintentional selection methods resulted in a wide variety of this species. Just before the intensification of rearing technology and the exchange of stocking materials among fish farms (early sixties), “landraces” of carp were collected from practically all Hungarian fish farms into a live gene bank at the Research Institute for Fisheries, Aquaculture and Irrigation (HAKI) at Szarvas (Bakos and Gorda 1995; Bakos and Gorda 2001). In order to provide highly productive hybrids for production purposes starting from 1964, different strains and crosses between Hungarian landraces were created and tested. During the last 40 years, approximately 150 two-, three-, and four-line hybrids were produced. While developing parental lines, methods of individual selection, inbreeding, backcrossing of lines, gynogenesis and sex reversal were used. This breeding program resulted in three outstanding hybrids: “Szarvas 215 mirror” and “Szarvas P31 scaly” for pond production, and “Szarvas P34 scaly” for angling waters. Besides satisfying the needs of industry, the live gene bank helped to conserve the biological diversity of Hungarian carp landraces. Fifteen Hungarian carp landraces are still maintained today in the gene bank. Through exchange programs fifteen foreign carp strains were added to the collection from Central and Eastern Europe, as well as Southeast Asia (Bakos and Gorda 2001). Besides developing the methodology to maintain live specimens in the gene bank, the National Carp Breeding Program has been initiated in cooperation with all the key stakeholders in Hungary, namely the National Association of Fish Producers (HOSZ), the National Institute for Agricultural Quality Control (OMMI), and the Research Institute for Fisheries, Aquaculture and Irrigation (HAKI). In addition, methodologies or technologies for broodstock management and carp performance testing have been developed. This National Carp Breeding Program is being implemented successfully since the mid-1990s.

Commercial Whaling, Especially for Gray Whales, Eschrichtius robustus, and Humpback Whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, at California and Baja California Shore Stations in the 19th Century (1854–1899)

Shore whaling along North America’s California and Baja California coasts during 1854–99 was ancillary to the offshore and alongshore American whale fishery, which had begun in the North Pacific in the early 1800’s and was flourishing by the 1840’s. From its inception at Monterey, Calif., in the mid 1850’s, the shore fishery, involving open boats deployed from land to catch and tow whales for processing, eventually spread from Monterey south to San Diego and Baja California and north to Crescent City near the California–Oregon border. It had declined to a relict industry by the 1880’s, although sporadic efforts continued into the early 20th century. The main target species were gray whales, Eschrichtius robustus, and humpback whales, Megaptera novaeangliae, with the valuable North Pacific right whale, Eubalaena japonica, also pursued opportunistically. Catch data are grossly incomplete for most stations; no logbooks were kept for these operations as they were for high-seas whaling voyages. Even when good information is available on catch levels, usually as number of whales landed or quantity of oil produced, it is rarely broken down by species. Therefore, we devised methods for extrapolation, interpolation, pro rationing, correction, and informed judgment to produce time series of catches. The resulting estimates of landings from 1854 to 1899 are 3,150 (SE = 112) gray whales and 1,637 (SE = 62) humpback whales. The numbers landed should be multiplied by 1.2 to account for hunting loss (i.e. whales harpooned or shot but not recovered and processed).

The history of contamination in sediments from the Mersey Estuary. Development of a chronology for the contamination of the Mersey Estuary by heavy metals and organochlorines

This is the history of contamination in sediments from the Mersey Estuary: Development of a chronology for the contamination of the Mersey Estuary by heavy metals and organochlorines Report produced by the Environment Agency in 1998. This report looks at the history of industrial contamination of the Mersey and Ribble Estuaries back to the early part of the last century, many decades before the start of monitoring programmes providing a remarkably detailed picture of very complex changes. There is a clear record in the sediment of the contamination by each heavy metal (including: Cu, Cr, Hg, Pb, Zn) and organochlorine chemical (including DDT isomers and PCB congeners) studied. The results of the study clearly show the increases in levels of contamination as industry expanded early last century followed by various improvements as this century progressed. Each pollutant has its own idiosyncratic pattern of change with some improvements predating modern environmental concerns whilst other changes seem to relate directly to recent improvements in legislative control. Overall, for the pollutants studied, the results clearly demonstrate the magnitude of improvement that has been achieved in what was a very polluted area. The only major reservation to this story is that despite the wide range of substances covered, many other potentially important pollutants remain to be studied in a similar manner.

Strong, low frequency (decadal) environmental fluctuations during the 20th century in the North Pacific Ocean, on the Washington coast, and in Puget Sound

At decadal period (10-20 years), dynamic linkage was evident between atmospheric low pressure systems over the North Pacific Ocean and circulation in a Pacific Northwest fjord (Puget Sound). As the Aleutian low pressure center shifts, storms arriving from the North Pacific Ocean deposit varying amounts of precipitation in the mountains draining into the estuarine system; in turn, the fluctuating addition of fresh water changes the density distribution near the fjord basin entrance sill, thereby constraining the fjord's vertical velocity structure. This linkage was examined using time series of 21 environmental parameters from 1899 to 1987. Covariation in the time series was evident because of the strong decadal cycles compared with long-term averages, interannual variability, and seasonal cycles.

The top ten California floods of the 20th century

The purpose of this paper is to summarize the biggest northern California floods of the 20th century. Flooding in California can occur from different causes. At least three types of floods occur: 1. Winter general floods, which cover a large area. 2. Spring and early summer snowmelt floods unique to the higher-elevation central and southern Sierra Nevada, which occur about once in 10 years on the average. 3. Local floods from strong thunderstorms, with intense rain over a relatively small area. These originate in moist tropical or subtropical air and include the flash floods of the desert and other areas of southern California when remnants of eastern Pacific hurricanes get carried into the state.