Report of the Study Group on “ Fisheries and Ecosystem Response to Recent Regime Shifts”

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. DECADAL-SCALE CLIMATE EVENTS 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Basin-scale Patterns 1.3 Long Time Series in the North Pacific 1.4 Decadal Climate Variability in Ecological Regions of the North Pacific 1.5 Mechanisms 1.6 References 2. COHERENT REGIONAL RESPONSES 2.1 Introduction 2.2 Central North Pacific (CNP) 2.3 California Current System (CCS) 2.4 Gulf of Alaska (GOA) 2.5 Bering Sea and Aleutian Islands 2.6 Western North Pacific (WNP) 2.7 Coherence in Regional Responses to the 1998 Regime Shift 2.8 Climate Indicators for Detecting Regime Shifts 2.9 References 3. IMPLICATIONS FOR THE MANAGEMENT OF MARINE RESOURCES 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Response Time of Biota to Regime Shifts 3.3 Response Time of Management to Regime Shifts 3.4 Provision of Stock Assessment Advice 3.5 Decision Rules 3.6 References 4. SUGGESTED LITERATURE 4.1 Climate Regimes 4.2 Impacts on Lower Trophic Levels 4.3 Impacts on Fish and Higher Trophic Levels 4.4 Impacts on Ecosystems and Possible Mechanisms 4.5 Regimes and Fisheries Management APPENDIX 1: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC A1.1 Introduction A1.2 Physical Oceanography A1.3 Lower Trophic Levels A1.4 Invertebrates A1.5 Fishes A1.6 References APPENDIX 2: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE CALIFORNIA CURRENT SYSTEM A2.1 Introduction A2.2 Physical Oceanography A2.3 Lower Trophic Levels A2.4 Invertebrates A2.5 Fishes A2.6 References APPENDIX 3: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE GULF OF ALASKA A3.1 Introduction A3.2 Physical Oceanography A3.3 Lower Trophic Levels A3.4 Invertebrates A3.5 Fishes A3.6 Higher Trophic Levels A3.7 Coherence in Gulf of Alaska Fish A3.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Recruitment and Survival Rate A3.9 References APPENDIX 4: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE BERING SEA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS A4.1 Introduction A4.2 Bering Sea Environmental Variables and Physical Oceanography A4.3 Bering Sea Lower Trophic Levels A4.4 Bering Sea Invertebrates A4.5 Bering Sea Fishes A4.6 Bering Sea Higher Trophic Levels A4.7 Coherence in Bering Sea Fish Responses A4.8 Combined Standardized Indices of Bering Fish Recruitment and Survival Rate A4.9 Aleutian Islands A4.10 References APPENDIX 5: RECENT ECOSYSTEM CHANGES IN THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC A5.1 Introduction A5.2 Sea of Okhotsk A5.3 Tsushima Current Region and Kuroshio/Oyashio Current Region A5.4 Bohai Sea, Yellow Sea, and East China Sea A5.5 References (168 page document)

Effects of flow regime on the young stages of Salmonid fishes. Conclusions based on results for 1977-1981

Rivers in Teesdale and its fish population have been monitored for several years. This report briefly describes the life cycle of British salmonid fishes and indicates the main ways in which this life cycle is influenced by discharge and related effects. Some highlights of the research results for 1977 - 1981 are briefly stated and proposals for future research are listed. Some practical implications of the results are discussed. (PDF contains 34 pages)

Effects of flow regime on the young stages of salmonid fishes. Summary and conclusions based on results for 1981-1985

The main British salmonid species spawn in clean gravel in streams and rivers, many of them in the upland areas of Britain. The earliest stages of the life cycle (eggs and alevins) spend some months within the gravel of the river bed. During this period their survival rate can be strongly influenced by flow regime and by related phenomena such as movement of coarse river bed material, changes in water level and the deposition of silt. In recent years human influence upon the flow regimes of upland water courses and upon the sediment inputs to them has increased. In order to conserve and, if possible, enhance the populations of salmonid fishes a deeper understanding of the interrelationships between survival of young salmonids and flow-related phenomena is needed. The acquisition of appropriate information is the main aim of the present project, which included: Studies on silt movement and the infilling of gravel voids by fine sediments, together with initial studies on the relationship between intragravel oxygen supply rate and the survival of intragravel stages of salmonids; studies in the general field of egg washout. The latter investigated the physical background to gravel bed disruption, the examination of the physical characteristics of sites chosen for redds, dimensions of redds and burial depth of eggs relative to the size of the fish constructing the redd and a series of smaller studies on other aspects of egg washout.

Pollution and water quality control of the River Tejo. Report on a visit to Portugal, Sep 27th - October 10th, 1987

Fundamental changes in the management of water resources in Portugal are now evolving. Five regional organisations termed Administracaos de Regiao Hidrographic (ARH), will be created to manage water resources within their respective geographical areas. These areas will be catchment based. As a fore-runner to the implementation of the five ARH's a foundation project has been established within the Direcao-Geral do Recursos Naturais to examine the practical implications of the new system. This project has been divided into a number of sub-projects and complementary projects to include the Tejo complementary project. The Tejo complementary project is the focus of this report. The report is to advise on the role of biology in the proposed ARH, to establish priorities for biological studies within the present Projecto de Gestao Integrada dos Recursos Hidricos da Bacia Hidrografica do Rio Tejo (PGIRH/T) and to assist with the planning of laboratory facilities for biology at the new PGIRH/T laboratory at Alges, Lisboa.

Witcherwell hatchery husbandry regime

Witcherwell like most new hatcheries has gone through a honeymoon period during which no major fish health problems have occurred. However, in 1994, there was an outbreak of Bacterial Gill Disease which caused high mortalities. This has emphasised the importance of developing and maintaining optimum husbandry practices for Witcherwell. These may also be applicable to other fish culture units in Central Area and the NW. To avoid the reoccurence of bacterial gill disease or other health problems and to ensure that stock of good health and quality are produced good husbandry practices must be followed. This report inculdes information on stock, disinfection, cross-contamination, cleaning, feed rates, flow rates, screening, treatments and possible problems.

Comparative feeding ecology of two elasmobranch species, Squalus blainville and Scyliorhinus canicula, off the coast of Portugal

The small-spotted catshark (Scyliorhinus canicula) (Linnaeus, 1758) and the longnose spurdog (Squalus blainville) (Risso, 1826) are two species occurring in the European and western African continental shelves with a wide geographical distribution. In this study, the diet of S. blainville and S. canicula off the Portuguese western Atlantic coast was investigated in 2006 by collecting monthly samples of these two species from local fishing vessels. In the stomachs of both species, crustaceans and teleosts were the dominant prey items, and molluscs, polychaetes, echinoderms, and sipunculids were found in lower abundance. In S. canicula, urochordate and chondrichthyan species were also observed in stomachs and were classified as accidental prey items. Scyliorhinus canicula consumed a broader group of prey items than did S. blainville. A significant diet overlap was observed, despite both species occupying different depth ranges over the continental shelf. Scyliorhinus canicula exhibited a consistency in diet composition among seasons, sexes, and maturity stages. Nonetheless, for both adults and juveniles, an increase in relative abundance of teleosts in the diet was observed in the spring and summer. This study provides evidence of the importance of S. canicula and S. blainville as benthic and pelagic predators along the western Atlantic coast.

Use of SARIMA models to assess data-poor fisheries: a case study with a sciaenid fishery off Portugal

Research on assessment and monitoring methods has primarily focused on fisheries with long multivariate data sets. Less research exists on methods applicable to data-poor fisheries with univariate data sets with a small sample size. In this study, we examine the capabilities of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) models to fit, forecast, and monitor the landings of such data-poor fisheries. We use a European fishery on meagre (Sciaenidae: Argyrosomus regius), where only a short time series of landings was available to model (n=60 months), as our case-study. We show that despite the limited sample size, a SARIMA model could be found that adequately fitted and forecasted the time series of meagre landings (12-month forecasts; mean error: 3.5 tons (t); annual absolute percentage error: 15.4%). We derive model-based prediction intervals and show how they can be used to detect problematic situations in the fishery. Our results indicate that over the course of one year the meagre landings remained within the prediction limits of the model and therefore indicated no need for urgent management intervention. We discuss the information that SARIMA model structure conveys on the meagre lifecycle and fishery, the methodological requirements of SARIMA forecasting of data-poor fisheries landings, and the capabilities SARIMA models present within current efforts to monitor the world’s data-poorest resources.

A 4500-year time series of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) size and abundance: archaeology, oceanic regime shifts, and sustainable fisheries

A 4500-year archaeological record of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) bones from Sanak Island, Alaska, was used to assess the sustainability of the modern fishery and the effects of this fishery on the size of fish caught. Allometric reconstructions of Pacific cod length for eight prehistoric time periods indicated that the current size of the nearshore, commercially fished Pacific cod stocks is statistically unchanged from that of fish caught during 4500 years of subsistence harvesting. This finding indicates that the current Pacific cod fishery that uses selective harvesting technolog ies is a sustainable commercial fishery. Variation in relative Pacific cod abundances provides further insights into the response of this species to punctuated changes in ocean climate (regime shifts) and indicates that Pacific cod stocks can recover from major environmental perturbations. Such palaeofisheries data can extend the short time-series of fisheries data (<50 yr) that form the basis for fisheries management in the Gulf of Alaska and place current trends within the context of centennial- or millennial-scale patterns.

Catches in ghost-fishing octopus and fish traps in the northeastern Atlantic Ocean (Algarve, Portugal)

Ghost fishing is the term used to describe the continued capture of fish and other living organisms after a fisherman has lost all control over the gear. Traps may be lost for a variety of reasons including theft, vandalism, abandonment, interactions with other gear, fouling on the bottom (i.e., traps and ropes are caught on rocky substrate), bad weather, and human error (Laist, 1995). Annual trap loss can be as high as 20% to 50% of fished traps in some fisheries (Al-Masroori et al., 2004). Because lost traps can continue to fish for long periods, albeit with decreasing efficiency over time (e.g., Smolowitz, 1978; Breen, 1987, 1990; Guillory, 1993), ghost fishing is a concern in fisheries worldwide.

Biodiversity as an index of regime shift in the eastern Bering Sea

Data collected from an annual groundf ish survey of the eastern Bering Sea shelf from 1975 to 2002 were used to estimate biomass and biodiversity indexes for two fish guilds: f latfish and roundfish. Biomass estimates indicated that several species of f latfish (particularly rock sole, arrowtooth flounder, and f lathead sole), several large sculpins (Myoxocephalus spp.), bigmouth (Hemitripterus bolini), and skates (Bathyraja spp.) had increased. Declining species included several f latfish species and many smaller roundfish species of sculpins, eelpouts (Lycodes spp.), and sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria). Biodiversity indexes were calculated by using biomass estimates for both guilds from 1975 through 2002 within three physical domains on the eastern Bering Sea shelf. Biodiversity trends were found to be generally declining within the roundfish guild and generally increasing within the f latfish guild and varied between inner, middle, and outer shelf domains. The trends in biodiversity indexes from this study correlated strongly with the regime shift reported for the late 1970s and 1980s.

Fish for the poor under a rising global demand and changing fishery regime

In the past, agricultural researchers tended to ignore the fisheries factor in global food and nutritional security. However, the role of fish is becoming critical as a result of changes in fisheries regimes, income distribution, demand and increasing international trade. Fish has become the fastest growing food commodity in international trade and this is raising concern for the supply of fish for poorer people. As a result, the impact of international trade regimes on fish supply and demand, and the consequences on the availability of fish for developing countries need to be studied. Policies aimed at increasing export earnings are in conflict with those aimed at increasing food security in third world countries. Fisheries policy research will need to focus on three primary areas which have an impact on the marginal and poorer communities of developing countries: increased international demand for low-value fish on the supply of poorer countries; improved aquaculture technologies and productivity on poorer and marginal farmers; and land and water allocation policy on productivity, food security and sustainability across farm, fishery and related sectors. The key to local food security is in the integration of agriculture, aquaculture and natural resources but an important focus on fisheries policy research will be to look at the linkages between societal, economic and natural systems in order to develop adequate and flexible solutions to achieve sustainable use of aquatic resources systems.

A comparison of monofilament gillnet and small hook longline selectivity in a multispecies artisanal fishery in the Algarve, southern Portugal

As part of the ongoing studies concerned with the small-scale fisheries of the South of Portugal, experimental fishing was carried out with monofilament gillnets and small hook longlines within the same area. Sixty-two species were caught, of which 20 were common to both gears. Pronounced differences in terms of the relative importance of different species in the catches were observed. Size selection patterns also differed, with highly overlapped hook catch distributions and few species showing evidence for size selectivity. In contrast, strong selectivity was characteristic of species which tend to be wedged in gillnets. Whereas smaller stretched mesh sizes (particularly 40 and 50 mm) caught significant numbers of illegal sized fish, this was mininmal in the longlines. Some implications for management are discussed.

A preliminary study on the feeding regime of European pilchard (Sardina pilchardus Walbaum 1792) in Izmir Bay, Turkey, Eastern Aegean Sea

The gut contents of Sardina pilchardus specimens captured in Izmir Bay were examined in order to determine their feeding regimes. Of the 365 stomachs examined, 321 (87.95%) contained food and 44 (12.05%) were empty. Analysis of gut contents verified that S. pilchardus feeds on zooplankton. The most important group in the diet of S. pilchardus was copepods (79.79%). Decapod crustacean larvae (8.17%) and bivalves (3.18%) were second and third, respectively, in order of importance. The application of analysis of variance to monthly data of numerical percentage, weight percentage, frequency of occurrence and index of relative importance indicated that there was no significant difference between months. Oncaea media was the most dominant species for six months of the year. Euterpina acutifrons, Centropages typicus, Calanoida, Oncaea sp. and Corycaeus sp. were the most dominant for March, April, May, September, October and December.