Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

Coastal erosion as a natural resource management problem: An economic perspective

Unremitting waves and occasional storms bring dynamic forces to bear on the coast. Sediment flux results in various patterns of erosion and accretion, with an overwhelming majority (80 to 90 percent) of coastline in the eastern U.S. exhibiting net erosion in recent decades. Climate change threatens to increase the intensity of storms and raise sea level 18 to 59 centimeters over the next century. Following a lengthy tradition of economic models for natural resource management, this paper provides a dynamic optimization model for managing coastal erosion and explores the types of data necessary to employ the model for normative policy analysis. The model conceptualizes benefits of beach and dune sediments as service flows accruing to nearby residential property owners, local businesses, recreational beach users, and perhaps others. Benefits can also include improvements in habitat for beach- and dune-dependent plant and animal species. The costs of maintaining beach sediment in the presence of coastal erosion include expenditures on dredging, pumping, and placing sand on the beach to maintain width and height. Other costs can include negative impacts on the nearshore environment. Employing these constructs, an optimal control model is specified that provides a framework for identifying the conditions under which beach replenishment enhances economic welfare and an optimal schedule for replenishment can be derived under a constant sea level and erosion rate (short term) as well as an increasing sea level and erosion rate (long term). Under some simplifying assumptions, the conceptual framework can examine the time horizon of management responses under sea level rise, identifying the timing of shift to passive management (shoreline retreat) and exploring factors that influence this potential shift. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Poverty alleviation and rural development in Nigeria: a gender perspective

The paper examines the concept of the feminization of poverty and reviews the limited evidence on the extent of poverty among women. It then examines the arguments that poor women can be highly effective change agents for the eradication of poverty. However, all the women may be considered as instruments for eliminating poverty, lack of understanding an appreciation of the impact of their sex roles and of gender roles and stereotypes continue to prevent the realization of this potential. Therefore, the paper moves on to summarize the differences between sex and gender and examines how both women's sexes roles and the imp gender roles and stereotypes lead to the feminization of poverty and exclude women from the participation in development and programmes to eliminate poverty. The paper reviews the major approaches: women in development or WID, gender and development or GAD and extension of GAD known as mainstreaming. Finally, it considers the issue of poverty, women and gender in Nigeria. It also advances a number of recommendations on women and gender poverty and rural development for the consideration of policy-makers in Nigeria

Toxic blue-green algae: The "problem" in perspective

The incidence of blue-green algal blooms and surface scum-formation are certainly not new phenomena. Many British and European authors have been faithfully describing the unmistakable symptoms of blue-green algal scums for over 800 years. There is no disputing that blue-green algal toxins are extremely harmful. Three quite separate categories of compound have been separated: neurotoxins; hepatotoxins and lipopolysaccharides. There is a popular association between blue-green algae and eutrophication. Certainly the main nuisance species - of Microcystis, Anabaena and Aphanizomenon are rare in oligotrophic lakes and reservoirs. Several approaches have been proposed for the control of blue-green algae. Distinction is made between methods for discharging algae already present (eg algicides; straw bales; viruses; parasitic fungi and herbivorous ciliates), and methods for averting an anticipated abundance in the future (phosphorous control, artificial circulation etc).

A review of current biological and recent environmental research on Lake Baikal from a British perspective

In 1990, "BICER" or the Baikal International Centre for Ecological Research was created to foster collaborative research on Lake Baikal. The British effort in BICER was initiated and is administered by the Royal Society, London. Much of the on-going research effort is now focussed on environmental change, as there is increasing concern about recent changes in the lake's unique ecosystem that could be linked with the effects of water pollution from catchment effluents. Monitoring studies of the phytoplankton in Lake Baikal's southern basin indicate that several species have increased in abundance since the mid-70's. Diatoms in Lake Baikal sediments are also being studied.

The role of specially designated wildlife sites in freshwater conservation - an English perspective

The value of specially designated sites in conserving biodiversity has been a hotly debated issue for many years. The debate has recently been given fresh impetus by the creation of Natural England, the new Government Agency responsible for the protection and enhancement of the natural environment in England, and the challenges facing the management of designated sites resulting from the increasingly tangible effects of climate change. In the freshwater environment, the role of designated sites is very much under the spotlight because of the implementation of the European 'Water Framework' Directive, which aspires to holistic, ecologically-based management of aquatic habitats.This paper explores the underlying premises of, and rationale for, special site designations for wildlife, and provides a frank account of the inevitable clash of management philosophies that designated sites create in the freshwater environment, drawing on experiences of managing designated freshwater sites in England over the past decade. A positive role is outlined for designated sites in freshwater conservation, which addresses these management conflicts in a way that not only meets Government obligations towards these sites but also paves the way for enlightened, progressive management of the wider freshwater resource. As part of this account, attempts are made to clarify the relationship between key biodiversity-related policy drivers in the freshwater environment, and to explain how the spectre of climate change can be addressed within designated site management. The importance of strategic freshwater science, collaboratively designed and funded, in maximising the value of the designated freshwater site network to the wider freshwater habitat resource, is stressed.