The role of direct observation in predicting climatic change

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Ocean Analysis and Prediction (COAP) in Monterey, California, has assembled information to suggest how NOAA's facilities for observing the ocean and atmosphere might be applied to studies of paleoclimate. This effort resulted, indirectly, in several projects that combine direct observations of the ocean/atmosphere system with studies of past climate of the Pacific region. This article considers concepts that link the two kinds of investigations. It defines the thesis that direct observation of systems that generate paleoclimatic information is the nexus upon which understanding of climatic variability begins and upon which prediction of climate and global change depends.

Snow accumulation time series and their climatic interpretation

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Several snow accumulation time series derived from ice cores and extending over 3 to 5 centuries are examined for spatial and temporal climatic information. ... A significant observation is the widespread depression of net snow accumulation during the latter part of the "Little Ice Age". This initially suggests sea surface temperatures were significantly depressed during the same period. However, prior to this, the available core records indicate generally higher than average precipitation rates. This also implies that influences such as shifted storm tracks or a dustier atmosphere may have been involved. Without additional spatial data coverage, these observations should properly be studied using a coupled (global) ocean/atmosphere GCM.

Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: dynamics and predictability [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The dynamics and predictability of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America are investigated by analyzing various observational datasets and the output of a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which was integrated for 120 years.

Recent trends in the climate of the tropical Pacific region

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Observations of climate variables in the tropical Pacific region are examined for the period 1970-1994. We look at a variety of climate variables, including upper ocean temperatures, surface wind stress, precipitation, and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and find evidence for two distinct decadal-scale warmings in the tropical Pacific ocean-atmosphere climate system during this period.

Oxygen isotope analysis of corals from the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Panama: application and implications for coral-based paleoclimate reconstructions [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Coral-based reconstruction of past variability of sea surface conditions is improving our understanding of the tropical ocean-atmosphere system. We present oxygen isotope records from corals collected near the tip of Baja California (Baja) and the Gulf of Panama (Saboga).

Regulation of primary production in the Gulf of California through interaction of large-scale and local ocean processes [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The suppression of primary productivity observed in eastern boundary ecosystems of the Pacific during El Nino episodes does not occur throughout the Gulf of California. On the contrary, analysis of the modern siliceous phytoplankton record from annually layered sediments and compilation of available primary productivity measurements indicate that production is significantly increased in the central Gulf during El Nino years compared to anti-El Nino years. Integrated observations of biological and physical variability during the spring of 1983, under the influence of the strong El Nino, show that very high primary productivity occurred along the eastern margin of the central Gulf. This resulted from the upwelling of a nutrient rich source provided by the locally formed Gulf water mass originating in the northern Gulf. Lower productivity and phytoplankton biomass were associated with the anomalous penetration of Tropical Surface Water along the western side of the Gulf.

Tree-ring records as indicators of air-sea interaction in the northeast Pacific sector

Climate conditions in land areas of the Pacific Northwest are strongly influenced by atmosphere/ocean variability, including fluctuations in the Aleutian Low, Pacific-North American (PNA) atmospheric circulation modes, and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It thus seems likely that climatically sensitive tree-ring data from these coastal land areas would likewise reflect such climatic parameters. In this paper, tree-ring width and maximum lakewood density chronologies from northwestern Washington State and near Vancouver Island, British Columbia, are compared to surface air temperature and precipitation from nearby coastal and near-coastal land stations and to monthly sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) data from the northeast Pacific sector. Results show much promise for eventual reconstruction of these parameters, potentially extending available instrumental records for the northeastern Pacific by several hundred years or more.

Report of the 2005 Workshop on Ocean Ecodynamics Comparison in the Subarctic Pacific

I. Scientific Issues Posed by OECOS II. Participant Contributions to the OECOS Workshop A. ASPECTS OF PHYTOPLANKTON ECOLOGY IN THE SUBARCTIC PACIFIC Microbial community compositions by Karen E. Selph Subarctic Pacific lower trophic interactions: Production-based grazing rates and grazing-corrected production rates by Nicholas Welschmeyer Phytoplankton bloom dynamics and their physiological status in the western subarctic Pacific by Ken Furuya Temporal and spatial variability of phytoplankton biomass and productivity in the northwestern Pacific by Sei-ichi Saitoh, Suguru Okamoto, Hiroki Takemura and Kosei Sasaoka The use of molecular indicators of phytoplankton iron limitation by Deana Erdner B. IRON CONCENTRATION AND CHEMICAL SPECIATION Iron measurements during OECOS by Zanna Chase and Jay Cullen 25 The measurement of iron, nutrients and other chemical components in the northwestern North Pacific Ocean by Kenshi Kuma The measurement of iron, nutrients and other chemical components in the northwestern North Pacific Ocean by Kenshi Kuma C. PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY, FINE-SCALE DISTRIBUTION PATTERNS AND AUTONOMOUS DRIFTERS The use of drifters in Lagrangian experiments: Positives, negatives and what can really be measured by Peter Strutton The interaction between plankton distribution patterns and vertical and horizontal physical processes in the eastern subarctic North Pacific by Timothy J. Cowles D. MICROZOOPLANKTON Microzooplankton processes in oceanic waters of the eastern subarctic Pacific: Project OECOS by Suzanne Strom Functional role of microzooplankton in the pelagic marine ecosystem during phytoplankton blooms in the western subarctic Pacific by Takashi Ota and Akiyoshi Shinada E. MESOZOOPLANKTON Vertical zonation of mesozooplankton, and its variability in response to food availability, density stratification, and turbulence by David L. Mackas and Moira Galbraith Marine ecosystem characteristics and seasonal abundance of dominant calanoid copepods in the Oyashio region by Atsushi Yamaguchi, Tsutomu Ikeda and Naonobu Shiga OECOS: Proposed mesozooplankton research in the Oyashio region, western subarctic Pacific by Tsutomu Ikeda Some background on Neocalanus feeding by Michael Dagg Size and growth of interzonally migrating copepods by Charles B. Miller Growth of large interzonal migrating copepods by Toru Kobari F. MODELING Ecosystem and population dynamics modeling by Harold P. Batchelder III. Reports from Workshop Breakout Groups A. PHYSICAL AND CHEMICAL ASPECTS WITH EMPHASIS ON IRON AND IRON SPECIATION B. PHYTOPLANKTON/MICROZOOPLANKTON STUDIES C. MESOZOOPLANKTON STUDIES IV. Issues arising during the workshop A. PHYTOPLANKTON STOCK VARIATIONS IN HNLC SYSTEMS AND TROPHIC CASCADES IN THE NANO AND MICRO REGIMES B. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN EAST AND WEST IN SITE SELECTION FOR OECOS TIME SERIES C. TIMING OF OECOS EXPEDITIONS D. CHARACTERIZATION OF PHYSICAL OCEANOGRAPHY V. Concluding Remarks VI. References (109 page document)

An Integrated Assessment of the Introduction of Lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles complex) to the Western Atlantic Ocean.

Lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles complex) are venomous coral reef fishes from the Indian and western Pacific oceans that are now found in the western Atlantic Ocean. Adult lionfish have been observed from Miami, Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and juvenile lionfish have been observed off North Carolina, New York, and Bermuda. The large number of adults observed and the occurrence of juveniles indicate that lionfish are established and reproducing along the southeast United States coast. Introductions of marine species occur in many ways. Ballast water discharge, a very common method of introduction for marine invertebrates, is responsible for many freshwater fish introductions. In contrast, most marine fish introductions result from intentional stocking for fishery purposes. Lionfish, however, likely were introduced via unintentional or intentional aquarium releases, and the introduction of lionfish into United States waters should lead to an assessment of the threat posed by the aquarium trade as a vector for fish introductions. Currently, no management actions are being taken to limit the effect of lionfish on the southeast United States continental shelf ecosystem. Further, only limited funds have been made available for research. Nevertheless, the extent of the introduction has been documented and a forecast of the maximum potential spread of lionfish is being developed. Under a scenario of no management actions and limited research, three predictions are made: ● With no action, the lionfish population will continue to grow along the southeast United States shelf. ● Effects on the marine ecosystem of the southeast United States will become more noticeable as the lionfish population grows. ● There will be incidents of lionfish envenomations of divers and/or fishers along the east coast of the United States. Removing lionfish from the southeast United States continental shelf ecosystem would be expensive and likely impossible. A bounty could be established that would encourage the removal of fish and provide specimens for research. However, the bounty would need to be lower than the price of fish in the aquarium trade (~$25-$50 each) to ensure that captured specimens were from the wild. Such a low bounty may not provide enough incentive for capturing lionfish in the wild. Further, such action would only increase the interaction between the public and lionfish, increasing the risk of lionfish envenomations. As the introduction of lionfish is very likely irreversible, future actions should focus on five areas. 1) The population of lionfish should be tracked. 2) Research should be conducted so that scientists can make better predictions regarding the status of the invasion and the effects on native species, ecosystem function, and ecosystem services. 3) Outreach and education efforts must be increased, both specifically toward lionfish and more generally toward the aquarium trade as a method of fish introductions. 4) Additional regulation should be considered to reduce the frequency of marine fish introduction into U.S. waters. However, the issue is more complicated than simply limiting the import of non-native species, and these complexities need to be considered simultaneously. 5) Health care providers along the east coast of the United States need to be notified that a venomous fish is now resident along the southeast United States. The introduction and spread of lionfish illustrates the difficulty inherent in managing introduced species in marine systems. Introduced species often spread via natural mechanisms after the initial introduction. Efforts to control the introduction of marine fish will fail if managers do not consider the natural dispersal of a species following an introduction. Thus, management strategies limiting marine fish introductions need to be applied over the scale of natural ecological dispersal to be effective, pointing to the need for a regional management approach defined by natural processes not by political boundaries. The introduction and success of lionfish along the east coast should change the long-held perception that marine fish invasions are a minimal threat to marine ecosystems. Research is needed to determine the effects of specific invasive fish species in specific ecosystems. More broadly, a cohesive plan is needed to manage, mitigate and minimize the effects of marine invasive fish species on ecosystems that are already compromised by other human activities. Presently, the magnitude of marine fish introductions as a stressor on marine ecosystems cannot be quantified, but can no longer be dismissed as negligible. (PDF contains 31 pages)

First Biennial Ocean Climate Summit: Finding Solutions for San Francisco Bay Area’s Coast and Ocean. Proceedings of the Summit: April 29, 2008, Golden Gate Club, The Presidio San Francisco, California

Executive Summary: The marine environment plays a critical role in the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) that remains within Earth’s atmosphere, but has not received as much attention as the terrestrial environment when it comes to climate change discussions, programs, and plans for action. It is now apparent that the oceans have begun to reach a state of CO2 saturation, no longer maintaining the “steady-state” carbon cycle that existed prior to the Industrial Revolution. The increasing amount of CO2 present within the oceans and the atmosphere has an effect on climate and a cascading effect on the marine environment. Potential physical effects of climate change within the marine environment, including ocean acidification, changes in wind and upwelling regimes, increasing global sea surface temperatures, and sea level rise, can lead to dramatic, fundamental changes within marine and coastal ecosystems. Altered ecosystems can result in changing coastal economies through a reduction in marine ecosystem services such as commercial fish stocks and coastal tourism. Local impacts from climate change should be a front line issue for natural resource managers, but they often feel too overwhelmed by the magnitude of this issue to begin to take action. They may not feel they have the time, funding, or staff to take on a challenge as large as climate change and continue to not act as a result. Already, natural resource managers work to balance the needs of humans and the economy with ecosystem biodiversity and resilience. Responsible decisions are made each day that consider a wide variety of stakeholders, including community members, agencies, non-profit organizations, and business/industry. The issue of climate change must be approached as a collaborative effort, one that natural resource managers can facilitate by balancing human demands with healthy ecosystem function through research and monitoring, education and outreach, and policy reform. The Scientific Expert Group on Climate Change in their 2007 report titled, “Confronting Climate Change: Avoiding the Unmanageable and Managing the Unavoidable” charged governments around the world with developing strategies to “adapt to ongoing and future changes in climate change by integrating the implications of climate change into resource management and infrastructure development”. Resource managers must make future management decisions within an uncertain and changing climate based on both physical and biological ecosystem response to climate change and human perception of and response to the issue. Climate change is the biggest threat facing any protected area today and resource managers must lead the charge in addressing this threat. (PDF has 59 pages.)

“El Niño” study based on analysis of ocean surface temperatures 1935-57

ENGLISH: The following report describes the findings of an "El Niño" project carried out at the Department of Meteorology of the University of California, Los Angeles, at the request of, and with funds provided from, the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission. The project was, in its early stages, supervised by Professor M. Neiburger, but was in June 1959 transferred to Professor J. Bjerknes, who thereby became the sole author of this final report. Readers who may be interested in the general background of knowledge of the maritime meteorology of the Eastern Pacific are herewith referred to Professor Neiburger's final report of the "Subtropical Pacific Meteorology Project." That report, submitted in September 1958 to the Office of Naval Research, summarizes the results of all the meteorological soundings released at sea since 1949 from California in the north to Peru in the south. The soundings off Ecuador and Peru were all taken by the "Shellback" expedition during July 1952. Important as this first exploration of the atmosphere over the Eastern Equatorial Pacific was, it did not even begin to explore " El Niño " itself, which is confined to the southern summer season and, moreover, only reaches catastrophic proportions in a few exceptional years. SPANISH: Este estudio da a conocer los resultados de una investigación que, bajo el nombre de Proyecto "El Niño", ha sido efectuada en el Departamento de Meteorología de la Universidad de California, Los Angeles, a solicitud de la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical y con fondos provistos por ésta. En sus primeras etapas, el proyecto fué supervisado por el Profesor M. Neiburger, pero en junio de 1959 fué transferido al Profesor J. Bjerknes, quien de este modo vino a ser el solo autor de este informe final. A los lectores interesados en los conocimientos de fondo de la meteorología marítima del Pacífico Oriental se les recomienda consultar el informe final del Profesor Neiburger intitulado "Subtropical Pacific Meteorology Project". Este informe, sometido a la "Office of Naval Research" en septiembre de 1958 sumariza los resultados de todos los sondeos meteorológicos efectuados en el mar desde 1949 en el área entre California en el norte y Perú en el sur. Todos los sondeos frente al Ecuador y el Perú fueron hechos por la Expedición "Shellback" durante el mes de julio de 1952. Importante como fué esta primera exploración de la atmósfera sobre el Pacífico Ecuatorial del Este, ni siquiera comenzó a explorar "El Niño" en sí, que se confina a la estación de verano en el sur y, más aún, sólo alcanza proporciones catastróficas en unos pocos años excepcionales.

A review of the Japanese longline fishery for tunas and billfishes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, 1971-1980

ENGLISH: This report reviews the Japanese longline fishery for tunas and billfishes in the eastern Pacific Ocean during 1971-1980, extending the studies made by other investigators, which covered the 1956-1970 period. The spatial and temporal distributions of fishing effort, catch, apparent abundance, sexual maturity, and size composition are examined for each species. The deep longlining method is described and the hook rates for this gear and for conventional longline gear are compared. Some observations on the interaction of surface and longline gear are reported. SPANISH: Se examina en este informe la pesca palangrera japonesa de atunes y peces espada en el Océano Pacífico oriental durante 1971-1980, ampliando los estudios hechos por otros investigadores que incluían el período de 1956-1970. Para cada especie se examinan las distribuciones temporales y espaciales del esfuerzo de pesca, captura, abundancia aparente, madurez sexual y composición de talla. Se describe el método de los palangres profundos y se comparan los índices de captura por anzuelo de este arte y del arte convencional palangrero. Se presentan algunas observaciones sobre la interacción de las artes espipelágicas y las palangreras. (PDF contains 163 pages.)

A review of the Japanese longline fishery for tunas and billfishes in the Eastern Pacific Ocean, 1981-1987

ENGLISH: This report reviews the activity of the Japanese longline fishery in the eastern Pacific Ocean during the 1981-1987 period, extending the studies for the 1956-1980 period made by other investigators. The spatial and temporal distributions of fishing effort, catch, apparent abundance, sexual maturity, and size composition are examined for the principal species of tunas and billfishes taken by that fishery. The interaction between the surface and longline fisheries is discussed. SPANISH: En este informe se presenta un repaso de la actividad pesquera de barcos palangreros japoneses en el Océano Pacifico oriental durante el periodo de 1981-1987, extendiendo los estudios del periodo de 1956-1980 realizados por otros investigadores. Se examinan las distribuciones especial y temporal de les fuerzo de pesca, la captura, la abundancia aparente, la madurez sexual, y la composición por talla de las principales especies de atunes y picudos capturadas por dicha pesquería. Se comenta la nteracción entre las pesquerías de superficie y palangrera. (PDF contains 171 pages.)

Interactions between marine mammals and pelagic longline fishing gear in the U.S. Atlantic Ocean between 1992 and 2004

The U.S. East Coast pelagic longline fishery has a history of interactions with marine mammals, where animals are hooked and entangled in longline gear. Pilot whales (Globicephala spp.) and Risso’s dolphin (Grampus griseus) are the primary species that interact with longline gear. Logistic regression was used to assess the environmental and gear characteristics that influence interaction rates. Pilot whale inter-actions were correlated with warm water temperatures, proximity to the shelf break, mainline lengths greater than 20 nautical miles, and damage to swordfish catch. Similarly, Risso’s dolphin interactions were correlated with geographic location, proximity the shelf break, the length of the mainline, and bait type. The incidental bycatch of marine mammals is likely associated with depredation of the commercial catch and is increased by the overlap between marine mammal and target species habitats. Altering gear characteristics and fishery practices may mitigate incidental bycatch and reduce economic losses due to depredation.

Atmospheric chlorofluoromethanes as tracers of ocean circulation and mixing: measurement and calibration techniques and studies in the Greenland and Norwegian seas

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): An analytical system was designed and constructed for the rapid and accurate shipboard measurement of anthropogenic chlorofluoromethanes in seawater and in air, using electron capture gas chrometography. The distribution of these compounds in the marine atmosphere and the water column in the Greenland and Norwegian seas were studied during February and March, 1982. The compounds, dissolved in the ocean from the atmosphere, can be used as tracers of subsurface ocean circulation and mixing processes.