Removing observational noise from fisheries-independent time series data using ARIMA models

Abundance indices derived from fishery-independent surveys typically exhibit much higher interannual variability than is consistent with the within-survey variance or the life history of a species. This extra variability is essentially observation noise (i.e. measurement error); it probably reflects environmentally driven factors that affect catchability over time. Unfortunately, high observation noise reduces the ability to detect important changes in the underlying population abundance. In our study, a noise-reduction technique for uncorrelated observation noise that is based on autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series modeling is investigated. The approach is applied to 18 time series of finfish abundance, which were derived from trawl survey data from the U.S. northeast continental shelf. Although the a priori assumption of a random-walk-plus-uncorrelated-noise model generally yielded a smoothed result that is pleasing to the eye, we recommend that the most appropriate ARIMA model be identified for the observed time series if the smoothed time series will be used for further analysis of the population dynamics of a species.

Hydrographic observations in Elkhorn Slough and Moss Landing Harbor, California, October 1970 to November 1971. Annual report, Part 3, July 1972

In October 1970, Moss Landing Marine Laboratories began an observational program to determine/the seasonal changes in the water chemistry of Elkhorn Slough and Moss Landing Harbor. This data report contains the first year of data (October 1970 - November 1971). These data are of immediate interest in determining the flushing and mixing mechanisms of the slough and in establishing the effect that local domestic and industrial effluents have on the distribution of these chemical parameters. (Document contains 78 Pages)

An oceanographic atlas of the Eastern Tropical Pacific Ocean, based on data from EASTROPIC Expedition, October-December 1955.

ENGLISH: EASTROPIC Expedition was a cooperative oceanographic study of the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean conducted during the period 2 October through 16 December 1955. The five participating agencies and the ships they operated were: Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), Spencer F. Baird and Horizon; Pacific Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (POFI) of the U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, now Honolulu Biological Laboratory (HBL) of the U. S. Bureau of Commercial Fisheries, Hugh M. Smith; California Department of Fish and Game, N. B. Scofield; the Peruvian Navy, Bondu; and the Inter-American Tropical Tuna Commission which operated no vessels but supplied equipment and personnel. In addition to these planned participations in EASTROPIC Expedition, valuable information was provided by CCOFI Cruise 5512 of the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations, conducted during the period 29 November -16 December 1955 with the two vessels Stranger and Black Douglas. While the observational programs of most of the agencies involved, in part, special hydrographic-biological studies of known features and processes in the region (see reports listed under Data Sources) the deployment of ships and therefore of observations was sufficient that EASTROPIC Expedition could be considered a survey of the eastern tropical Pacific. This report is concerned with that aspect of the Expedition and is a presentation in atlas form of most of the hydrographic data collected. For reasons given below, emphasis has been placed on the upper 300 m of the water column. SPANISH: La Expedición EASTROPIC es un estudio oceanográfico cooperativo del Océano Pacífico Oriental Tropical llevado a cabo durante el período del 2 de octubre al 16 de dícíembre de 1955. Las cinco agencias participantes y los barcos operados por ellas son los siguientes: Scrípps Instítutíon of Oceanography (SIO) , Spencer F. Baird y Horizon; Pacific Oceanic Fisheries Investigatíons (PO'FI) del U. S. Fish and Wildlife Service, ahora Honolulu Biological Laboratory (BHL) del U. S. Bureau of Commercial Fisheries, Hugh M. Smith; California Department of Fish and Game, N. B. Scofield; la Marina Peruana, Bondu; y la Comisión Interamericana del Atún Tropical que no dirigió ningún barco pero proporcionó equipo y personal. Además de estas participaciones planeadas en la Expedición EASTROPIC, fué suministrada información de valor por el Crucero CCOFI 5512 del California Cooperative Fisheries Investigatíons, llevado a cabo durante el período del 29 de noviembre al 16 de diciembre de 1955 con los barcos Stranger y Black Douglas. Aunque los programas de observación de la mayoría de las agencias, comprendieron en parte estudios especiales hidrográficos y biológicos de las características y de los procesos conocidos de la región (véase los informes indicados bajo Fuente de Datos), el despliegue de los barcos, y por lo tanto, de las observaciones, fué suficiente para que la Expedición EASTROPIC pudiera ser considerada como una encuesta del Pacífico Oriental Tropical. Este informe se refiere a este aspecto de la Expedición y es una presentación, en forma de un atlas, de la mayoría de los datos hidrográficos recolectados. Por las razones que se dan a continuación, se le dió énfasis a los 300 m., superiores de la columna de agua. (PDF contains 136 pages.)

Phytoplankton periodicity: its motivation, mechanisms and manipulation

This review summarizes some recent work to find a generalized explanation of phytoplankton periodicity in lakes. Much of the observational and experimental evidence is drawn from work centred on the large enclosures (Lund Tubes) installed in Blelham Tarn, English Lake District. Observations on the phytoplankton in the tubes are related to the periodic changes that occur in natural lakes and it is suggested that such changes have common patterns, that they are due to common causes, that they are affected by similar processes and that they are therefore predictable and, potentially, manipulable.

Year-to-year changes of vertical temperature distribution in the California Current region: 1954 to 1986

Studies by Enfield and Allen (1980), McLain et al (1985), and others have shown that anomalously warm years in the northern coastal California Current correspond to El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Ocean model studies suggest a mechanical link between the northern coastal California Current and the equatorial ocean through long waves that propagate cyclonically along the ocean boundary (McCreary 1976; Clarke 1983; Shriver et al 1991). However, distinct observational evidence of such an oceanic connection is not extensive. Much of the supposed El Niño variation in temperature and sea level data from the coastal California Current region can be associated with the effects of anomalously intense north Pacific atmospheric cyclogenesis, which is frequently augmented during El Niño years (Wallace and Gutzler 1981; Simpson 1983; Emery and Hamilton 1984). This study uses time series of ocean temperature data to distinguish between locally forced effects, initiated by north Pacific atmospheric changes, and remotely forced effects, initiated by equatorial Pacific atmospheric changes related to El Niño events.

A numerical simulation of cool/wet and warm/wet episodes in the western United States

Wintertime precipitation in the mountains of the western United States during a warm or cool period has a pronounced influence on streamflow. During a warm year, streamflow at intermediate elevations responds more immediately to precipitation events; during a cold year, much of the discharge is delayed until the snow melts in spring and summer. Previous efforts at studying these extremes have been hampered by a limited number and length of observational analyses. In this study, we augment this limited observational record by analyzing a simplified general circulation model.

Decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America: dynamics and predictability [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The dynamics and predictability of decadal climate variability over the North Pacific and North America are investigated by analyzing various observational datasets and the output of a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, which was integrated for 120 years.

On farm trial of freshwater pearl culture

On farm preliminary trial of freshwater pearl culture was done through 20 entrepreneurs in Boilor and Sutiakhali villages of Mymensingh district during 2004. A group of 20 enthusiastic women were selected and trained on the art of mantle tissue dissection, operation for mantle tissue implantation and preparation of ponds for pearl culture. A total of 200 juvenile freshwater mussel, Lamellidens marginalis, were collected from the wild and were used for mantle issue operation. The operated mussels were then transferred to farmer's pond and were subjected to observational trial. Length and weight of each of the test mussels were recorded before hanging them at a depth of 40 cm in net bags (3 mussels/net bag) in ponds at the rate of 24,700 mussels/ha of pond area. Ponds were routinely fertilized with organic and inorganic fertilizers thorough out the mussel rearing period. Water temperature, pH, plankton density and soil organic matter were monitored fortnightly. Growth of pearl is yet to be monitored through sacrifice of the mussels but X-ray photography of a few mussels indicated the initiation of pearl formation in most of them.