A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.

Integration of fisheries acoustics surveys and bathymetric mapping to characterize midwater-seafloor habitats of US Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico (2008-2010)

NOAA’s Coral Reef Conservation program (CRCP) develops coral reef management priorities by bringing together various partners to better understand threats to coral reef ecosystems with the goal of conserving, protecting and restoring these resources. Place-based and ecosystem-based management approaches employed by CRCP require that spatially explicit information about benthic habitats and fish utilization are available to characterize coral reef ecosystems and set conservation priorities. To accomplish this, seafloor habitat mapping of coral reefs around the U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) and Puerto Rico has been ongoing since 2004. In 2008, fishery acoustics surveys were added to NOAA survey missions in the USVI and Puerto Rico to assess fish distribution and abundance in relation to benthic habitats in high priority conservation areas. NOAA’s National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS) have developed fisheries acoustics survey capabilities onboard the NOAA ship Nancy Foster to complement the CRCP seafloor habitat mapping effort spearheaded by the Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment Biogeography Branch (CCMA-BB). The integration of these activities has evolved on the Nancy Foster over the three years summarized in this report. A strategy for improved operations and products has emerged over that time. Not only has the concurrent operation of multibeam and fisheries acoustics surveys been beneficial in terms of optimizing ship time and resources, this joint effort has advanced an integrated approach to characterizing bottom and mid-water habitats and the fishes associated with them. CCMA conducts multibeam surveys to systematically map and characterize coral reef ecosystems, resulting in products such as high resolution bathymetric maps, backscatter information, and benthic habitat classification maps. These products focus on benthic features and live bottom habitats associated with them. NCCOS Centers (the Center for Coastal Fisheries and Habitat Research and the Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research) characterize coral reef ecosystems by using fisheries acoustics methods to capture biological information through the entire water column. Spatially-explicit information on marine resources derived from fisheries acoustics surveys, such as maps of fish density, supports marine spatial planning strategies and decision making by providing a biological metric for evaluating coral reef ecosystems and assessing impacts from pollution, fishing pressure, and climate change. Data from fisheries acoustics surveys address management needs by providing a measure of biomass in management areas, detecting spatial and temporal responses in distribution relative to natural and anthropogenic impacts, and identifying hotspots that support high fish abundance or fish aggregations. Fisheries acoustics surveys conducted alongside multibeam mapping efforts inherently couple water column data with information on benthic habitats and provide information on the heterogeneity of both benthic habitats and biota in the water column. Building on this information serves to inform resource managers regarding how fishes are organized around habitat structure and the scale at which these relationships are important. Where resource managers require place-based assessments regarding the location of critical habitats along with high abundances of fish, concurrent multibeam and fisheries acoustics surveys serve as an important tool for characterizing and prioritizing coral reef ecosystems. This report summarizes the evolution of fisheries acoustics surveys onboard the NOAA ship Nancy Foster from 2008 to 2010, in conjunction with multibeam data collection, aimed at characterizing benthic and mid-water habitats in high priority conservation areas around the USVI and Puerto Rico. It also serves as a resource for the continued development of consistent data products derived from acoustic surveys. By focusing on the activities of 2010, this report highlights the progress made to date and illustrates the potential application of fisheries data derived from acoustic surveys to the management of coral reef ecosystems.

Integration of data for nowcasting of harmful algal blooms

Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are a significant and potentially expanding problem around the world. Resource management and public health protection require sufficient information to reduce the impacts of HABs by response strategies and through warnings and advisories. To be effective, these programs can best be served by an integration of improved detection methods with both evolving monitoring systems and new communications capabilities. Data sets are typically collected from a variety of sources, these can be considered as several types: point data, such as water samples; transects, such as from shipboard continuous sampling; and synoptic, such as from satellite imagery. Generation of a field of the HAB distribution requires all of these sampling approaches. This means that the data sets need to be interpreted and analyzed with each other to create the field or distribution of the HAB. The HAB field is also a necessary input into models that forecast blooms. Several systems have developed strategies that demonstrate these approaches. These range from data sets collected at key sites, such as swimming beaches, to automated collection systems, to integration of interpreted satellite data. Improved data collection, particularly in speed and cost, will be one of the advances of the next few years. Methods to improve creation of the HAB field from the variety of data types will be necessary for routine nowcasting and forecasting of HABs.

Integration of submersible transect data and high-resolution multibeam sonar imagery for a habitat-based groundfish assessment of Heceta Bank, Oregon

In the face of dramatic declines in groundfish populations and a lack of sufficient stock assessment information, a need has arisen for new methods of assessing groundfish populations. We describe the integration of seafloor transect data gathered by a manned submersible with high-resolution sonar imagery to produce a habitat-based stock assessment system for groundfish. The data sets used in this study were collected from Heceta Bank, Oregon, and were derived from 42 submersible dives (1988–90) and a multibeam sonar survey (1998). The submersible habitat survey investigated seafloor topography and groundfish abundance along 30-minute transects over six predetermined stations and found a statistical relationship between habitat variability and groundfish distribution and abundance. These transects were analyzed in a geographic information system (GIS) by using dynamic segmentation to display changes in habitat along the transects. We used the submersible data to extrapolate fish abundance within uniform habitat patches over broad areas of the bank by means of a habitat classification based on the sonar imagery. After applying a navigation correction to the submersible-based habitat segments, a good correlation with major boundaries on the backscatter and topographic boundaries on the imagery were apparent. Extrapolation of the extent of uniform habitats was made in the vicinity of the dive stations and a preliminary stock assessment of several species of demersal fish was calculated. Such a habitat-based approach will allow researchers to characterize marine communities over large areas of the seafloor.

On the use of combined compact scheme for numerical solution of the two-layer oceanic shallow water equations

Many types of oceanic physical phenomena have a wide range in both space and time. In general, simplified models, such as shallow water model, are used to describe these oceanic motions. The shallow water equations are widely applied in various oceanic and atmospheric extents. By using the two-layer shallow water equations, the stratification effects can be considered too. In this research, the sixth-order combined compact method is investigated and numerically implemented as a high-order method to solve the two-layer shallow water equations. The second-order centered, fourth-order compact and sixth-order super compact finite difference methods are also used to spatial differencing of the equations. The first part of the present work is devoted to accuracy assessment of the sixth-order super compact finite difference method (SCFDM) and the sixth-order combined compact finite difference method (CCFDM) for spatial differencing of the linearized two-layer shallow water equations on the Arakawa's A-E and Randall's Z numerical grids. Two general discrete dispersion relations on different numerical grids, for inertia-gravity and Rossby waves, are derived. These general relations can be used for evaluation of the performance of any desired numerical scheme. For both inertia-gravity and Rossby waves, minimum error generally occurs on Z grid using either the sixth-order SCFDM or CCFDM methods. For the Randall's Z grid, the sixth-order CCFDM exhibits a substantial improvement , for the frequency of the barotropic and baroclinic modes of the linear inertia-gravity waves of the two layer shallow water model, over the sixth-order SCFDM. For the Rossby waves, the sixth-order SCFDM shows improvement, for the barotropic and baroclinic modes, over the sixth-order CCFDM method except on Arakawa's C grid. In the second part of the present work, the sixth-order CCFDM method is used to solve the one-layer and two-layer shallow water equations in their nonlinear form. In one-layer model with periodic boundaries, the performance of the methods for mass conservation is compared. The results show high accuracy of the sixth-order CCFDM method to simulate a complex flow field. Furthermore, to evaluate the performance of the method in a non-periodic domain the sixth-order CCFDM is applied to spatial differencing of vorticity-divergence-mass representation of one-layer shallow water equations to solve a wind-driven current problem with no-slip boundary conditions. The results show good agreement with published works. Finally, the performance of different schemes for spatial differencing of two-layer shallow water equations on Z grid with periodic boundaries is investigated. Results illustrate the high accuracy of combined compact method.