Centennial oscillation of the climatic crescendo during the last glacial maximum: evidence from Lake Estancia, central New Mexico

Sediments deposited in late Pleistocene Lake Estancia, central New Mexico, contain a paleoclimatic record that includes the last glacial maximum and deglacial episode. Stratigraphic reconstruction of an interval representing the highstand of the lake that occurred during the last glacial maximum reveals ~2000-, ~600-, and ~200-year oscillations in lake level and climate. Shifting position of the polar jetstream in response to expansion and contraction of the North American ice sheet may be partly responsible for the millenial-scale changes in Lake Estancia but probably does not explain the centennial-scale oscillations.

Multiple-proxy lacustrine record of moisture transport over western North America from 24,000 to 12,000 YBP, Lake Estancia, New Mexico [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pluvial Lake Estancia in central New Mexico experienced large and rapid fluctuations in surface area and elevation during the build-up to and termination of the last glacial maximum (LGM). Due to continuous groundwater discharge, a minimum pool covering about 400 square kilometers was maintained in the central basin until about 12,000 years ago, ensuring a continuous depositional sequence even during low stands of the lake. ... The sensitive response to fluctuations in climate by several independent proxies at Estancia show that transport of Pacific moisture over western North America changed dramatically during the last Ice Age, perhaps comparable to the large and rapid changes in climate documented from high-latitude ice and North Atlantic marine sediments for the LCM and its transitions.

A rock-magnetic and geomagnetic secular variation record from late-Pleistocene Lake Estancia, New Mexico [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Exposed sediments of Late Pleistocene Lake Estancia contain a high resolution record of regional climate variability for the period about 12,000 to 32,000 years. A detailed rock-magnetic study is being performed on this well-dated, well-preserved sedimentary sequence to determine how the magnetic signature of sediments responded to regional climate change.

Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States: a state of knowledge report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program

Executive Summary: Observations show that warming of the climate is unequivocal. The global warming observed over the past 50 years is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases. These emissions come mainly from the burning of fossil fuels (coal, oil, and gas), with important contributions from the clearing of forests, agricultural practices, and other activities. Warming over this century is projected to be considerably greater than over the last century. The global average temperature since 1900 has risen by about 1.5ºF. By 2100, it is projected to rise another 2 to 11.5ºF. The U.S. average temperature has risen by a comparable amount and is very likely to rise more than the global average over this century, with some variation from place to place. Several factors will determine future temperature increases. Increases at the lower end of this range are more likely if global heat-trapping gas emissions are cut substantially. If emissions continue to rise at or near current rates, temperature increases are more likely to be near the upper end of the range. Volcanic eruptions or other natural variations could temporarily counteract some of the human-induced warming, slowing the rise in global temperature, but these effects would only last a few years. Reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would lessen warming over this century and beyond. Sizable early cuts in emissions would significantly reduce the pace and the overall amount of climate change. Earlier cuts in emissions would have a greater effect in reducing climate change than comparable reductions made later. In addition, reducing emissions of some shorter-lived heat-trapping gases, such as methane, and some types of particles, such as soot, would begin to reduce warming within weeks to decades. Climate-related changes have already been observed globally and in the United States. These include increases in air and water temperatures, reduced frost days, increased frequency and intensity of heavy downpours, a rise in sea level, and reduced snow cover, glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. A longer ice-free period on lakes and rivers, lengthening of the growing season, and increased water vapor in the atmosphere have also been observed. Over the past 30 years, temperatures have risen faster in winter than in any other season, with average winter temperatures in the Midwest and northern Great Plains increasing more than 7ºF. Some of the changes have been faster than previous assessments had suggested. These climate-related changes are expected to continue while new ones develop. Likely future changes for the United States and surrounding coastal waters include more intense hurricanes with related increases in wind, rain, and storm surges (but not necessarily an increase in the number of these storms that make landfall), as well as drier conditions in the Southwest and Caribbean. These changes will affect human health, water supply, agriculture, coastal areas, and many other aspects of society and the natural environment. This report synthesizes information from a wide variety of scientific assessments (see page 7) and recently published research to summarize what is known about the observed and projected consequences of climate change on the United States. It combines analysis of impacts on various sectors such as energy, water, and transportation at the national level with an assessment of key impacts on specific regions of the United States. For example, sea-level rise will increase risks of erosion, storm surge damage, and flooding for coastal communities, especially in the Southeast and parts of Alaska. Reduced snowpack and earlier snow melt will alter the timing and amount of water supplies, posing significant challenges for water resource management in the West. (PDF contains 196 pages)

A tree-ring perspective on the extreme wetness of the early 1900’s in the western United States [abstract]

Ring-width indices from 136 sites in the area from northern Montana to southern New Mexico between latitudes 103°W and 111°W were examined to infer periods of anomalous wetness for the years 1700-1964. Sites were grouped into north, central and south regions, and the gross regional tree-ring fluctuations were compared. The results indicate that the period 1905-1917 was unique in the 265-year record for the combined magnitude, duration, and north/south coherence of the growth anomaly of much lesser magnitude occurred in the 1830's-1840's [sic]. Both this and the 1905-1917 anomaly appear from time-series plots to be manifestations of low-frequency growth variations at wave lengths between about 20 and 60 years.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomena and forest fires in the southwestern United States

Fire statistics (area burned) and fire-scar chronologies from tree rings show reduced fire activity during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in forests of Arizona and New Mexico. This relationship probably stems from increased fuel moisture after a wet winter and spring, but also could involve climatic controls on lightning activity at the onset of the monsoon season.

The near-AD 1600 multi-proxy puzzle

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): A varve chronology with annual resolution (AD 1117-1992) has been developed recently for Santa Barbara Basin. Varve thickness and water content show an exponential trend consistent with expected patterns in the presence of sediment compaction over time. Annual varve thickness was decomposed into orthogonal components using singular spectrum analysis (SSA) to identify and retrieve inter-decadal oscillations. ... This suggests a connection with global-scale decadal cycles identified in the subtropical Pacific gyre circulation and, possibly, with solar-driven phenomena. The near-1600 AD event coincides with (a) a similarly sudden change of state in nearby Santa Monica Basin that triggered the onset of anoxic conditions and the preservation of laminated sediments, (b) an extreme drought over the American Southwest, (c) a transformation of the age structure in a number of forest populations throughout Arizona and New Mexico. Total organic carbon burial flux in Santa Barbara Basin varves also shows a marked change after AD 1600. A possible climatic link is proposed that involves pathways for moisture transport in the Southwest at decadal and longer time scales.