Ecological forecasting: new tools for coastal and marine ecosystem management

Policy makers, natural resource managers, regulators, and the public often call on scientists to estimate the potential ecological changes caused by both natural and human-induced stresses, and to determine how those changes will impact people and the environment. To develop accurate forecasts of ecological changes we need to: 1) increase understanding of ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning, 2) expand ecosystem monitoring and apply advanced scientific information to make these complex data widely available, and 3) develop and improve forecast and interpretative tools that use a scientific basis to assess the results of management and science policy actions. (PDF contains 120 pages)

Ecological aspects of New Forest streams, draining one of Britain's unique areas

This article describes the streams of this unique area of Britain and reviews the published and some unpublished information that is currently available. None of the rivers in the New Forest are more than 30 km long. Many reaches have been artificially straightened, channelized and regraded since the 1840's. The stream waters are typically base-poor, with low nutrient concentrations. Primary productivity and standing crops of algae are predictably low when compared with other streams carrying higher concentrations of minerals and nutrients. The earliest records on the macroinvertebrate fauna go back to the late 19th Century. By 1940, over 20 species of Trichoptera and 10 species of Plecoptera had been recorded, but only four species of Ephemeroptera. Twenty species of fish occur in the streams of the New Forest of which the most common are brown trout, minnow, bullhead, stone loach, brook lamprey and eel.

An ecological analysis of rockfish (Sebastes spp.) assemblages in the North Pacific Ocean along broad-scale environmental gradients

Environmental variability affects the distributions of most marine fish species. In this analysis, assemblages of rockfish (Sebastes spp.) species were defined on the basis of similarities in their distributions along environmental gradients. Data from 14 bottom trawl surveys of the Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands (n=6767) were used. Five distinct assemblages of rockfish were defined by geographical position, depth, and temperature. The 180-m and 275-m depth contours were major divisions between assemblages inhabiting the shelf, shelf break, and lower continental slope. Another noticeable division was between species centered in southeastern Alaska and those found in the northern Gulf of Alaska and Aleutian Islands. The use of environmental variables to define the species composition of assemblages is different from the use of traditional methods based on clustering and nonparametric statistics and as such, environmentally based analyses should result in predictable assemblages of species that are useful for ecosystem-based management.

A new observation on large scale disintegration of eggs of Indian major carps during development

While carp themselves may destroy carp eggs by sucking from outside the happa, destruction in the absence of carp also occurs. During observations of the effect of electrical field on developing carp eggs it was seen that the egg membrane ruptured prematurely under certain potential differences. In natural waters and mud potential differences occur in the presence of high concentrations of certain salts compared with the internal concentration. Temperature and pH fluctuations following strong sun or heavy rain accelerates the diffusion of ions along side water through the egg membrane. The egg cells expand rapidly and the embryos were rapidly dropped.

WFF-WFFP-ICSF-CIC: national workshop on capacity-building for the implementation of the voluntary guidelines for securing sustainable small-scale fisheries (SSF guidelines) - report, 21 and 22 March 2016 Multi-Purpose Hall, India International Centre, New Delhi, India

The report of the proceedings of the New Delhi workshop on the SSF Guidelines (Voluntary Guidelines for Securing Sustainable Small-scale Fisheries in the Context of Food Security and Poverty Eradication). The workshop brought together 95 participants from 13 states representing civil society organizations. governments, FAO, and fishworker organizations from both the marine and inland fisheries sectors. This report will be found useful for fishworker organizations, researchers, policy makers, members of civil society and anyone interested in small-scale fisheries, tenure rights, social development, livelihoods, post harvest and trade and disasters and climate change.

Status and management of the sea cucumber fishery of La Grande Terre, New Caledonia

From October 2006 to May 2008, The WorldFish Center coordinated a ZoNéCo project to provide support to the Southern and Northern Provinces for decisions about how best to manage the sea cucumber fishery around La Grande Terre. We collected data during underwater population surveys, questionnaire-based interviews with fishers and processors, and landing catch surveys. A core aim was to furnish the Provinces with ‘ballpark’ estimates of the abundance and density of commercially important sea cucumbers on 50 lagoon and barrier reefs. Analysis and synthesis of the ecological and sociological data provide the basis for informed recommendations for fisheries management. Counts of trochus and giant clams on the reefs allow us to also describe the general status of those resources. We propose 13 recommendations for management actions and fishery regulations and advocate an adaptive management approach. This multidisciplinary study should serve as a useful template for assessing other fisheries, and we provide a series of generic ‘lessons learnt’ to aid future programmes. (PDF has 140 pages.)

Prediction, Chaos and Ecological Perspective.

As defined, the modeling procedure is quite broad. For example, the chosen compartments may contain a single organism, a population of organisms, or an ensemble of populations. A population compartment, in turn, could be homogeneous or possess structure in size or age. Likewise, the mathematical statements may be deterministic or probabilistic in nature, linear or nonlinear, autonomous or able to possess memory. Examples of all types appear in the literature. In practice, however, ecosystem modelers have focused upon particular types of model constructions. Most analyses seem to treat compartments which are nonsegregated (populations or trophic levels) and homogeneous. The accompanying mathematics is, for the most part, deterministic and autonomous. Despite the enormous effort which has gone into such ecosystem modeling, there remains a paucity of models which meets the rigorous &! validation criteria which might be applied to a model of a mechanical system. Most ecosystem models are short on prediction ability. Even some classical examples, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey scheme, have not spawned validated examples.

An Integrated Assessment of the Introduction of Lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles complex) to the Western Atlantic Ocean.

Lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles complex) are venomous coral reef fishes from the Indian and western Pacific oceans that are now found in the western Atlantic Ocean. Adult lionfish have been observed from Miami, Florida to Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, and juvenile lionfish have been observed off North Carolina, New York, and Bermuda. The large number of adults observed and the occurrence of juveniles indicate that lionfish are established and reproducing along the southeast United States coast. Introductions of marine species occur in many ways. Ballast water discharge, a very common method of introduction for marine invertebrates, is responsible for many freshwater fish introductions. In contrast, most marine fish introductions result from intentional stocking for fishery purposes. Lionfish, however, likely were introduced via unintentional or intentional aquarium releases, and the introduction of lionfish into United States waters should lead to an assessment of the threat posed by the aquarium trade as a vector for fish introductions. Currently, no management actions are being taken to limit the effect of lionfish on the southeast United States continental shelf ecosystem. Further, only limited funds have been made available for research. Nevertheless, the extent of the introduction has been documented and a forecast of the maximum potential spread of lionfish is being developed. Under a scenario of no management actions and limited research, three predictions are made: ● With no action, the lionfish population will continue to grow along the southeast United States shelf. ● Effects on the marine ecosystem of the southeast United States will become more noticeable as the lionfish population grows. ● There will be incidents of lionfish envenomations of divers and/or fishers along the east coast of the United States. Removing lionfish from the southeast United States continental shelf ecosystem would be expensive and likely impossible. A bounty could be established that would encourage the removal of fish and provide specimens for research. However, the bounty would need to be lower than the price of fish in the aquarium trade (~$25-$50 each) to ensure that captured specimens were from the wild. Such a low bounty may not provide enough incentive for capturing lionfish in the wild. Further, such action would only increase the interaction between the public and lionfish, increasing the risk of lionfish envenomations. As the introduction of lionfish is very likely irreversible, future actions should focus on five areas. 1) The population of lionfish should be tracked. 2) Research should be conducted so that scientists can make better predictions regarding the status of the invasion and the effects on native species, ecosystem function, and ecosystem services. 3) Outreach and education efforts must be increased, both specifically toward lionfish and more generally toward the aquarium trade as a method of fish introductions. 4) Additional regulation should be considered to reduce the frequency of marine fish introduction into U.S. waters. However, the issue is more complicated than simply limiting the import of non-native species, and these complexities need to be considered simultaneously. 5) Health care providers along the east coast of the United States need to be notified that a venomous fish is now resident along the southeast United States. The introduction and spread of lionfish illustrates the difficulty inherent in managing introduced species in marine systems. Introduced species often spread via natural mechanisms after the initial introduction. Efforts to control the introduction of marine fish will fail if managers do not consider the natural dispersal of a species following an introduction. Thus, management strategies limiting marine fish introductions need to be applied over the scale of natural ecological dispersal to be effective, pointing to the need for a regional management approach defined by natural processes not by political boundaries. The introduction and success of lionfish along the east coast should change the long-held perception that marine fish invasions are a minimal threat to marine ecosystems. Research is needed to determine the effects of specific invasive fish species in specific ecosystems. More broadly, a cohesive plan is needed to manage, mitigate and minimize the effects of marine invasive fish species on ecosystems that are already compromised by other human activities. Presently, the magnitude of marine fish introductions as a stressor on marine ecosystems cannot be quantified, but can no longer be dismissed as negligible. (PDF contains 31 pages)

Extreme events and ecological forecasting

Almost all extreme events lasting less than several weeks that significantly impact ecosystems are weather related. This review examines the response of estuarine systems to intense short-term perturbations caused by major weather events such as hurricanes. Current knowledge concerning these effects is limited to relatively few studies where hurricanes and storms impacted estuaries with established environmental monitoring programs. Freshwater inputs associated with these storms were found to initially result in increased primary productivity. When hydrographic conditions are favorable, bacterial consumption of organic matter produced by the phytoplankton blooms and deposited during the initial runoff event can contribute to significant oxygen deficits during subsequent warmer periods. Salinity stress and habitat destruction associated with freshwater inputs, as well as anoxia, adversely affect benthic populations and fish. In contrast, mobile invertebrate species such as shrimp, which have a short life cycle and the ability to migrate during the runoff event, initially benefit from the increased primary productivity and decreased abundance of fish predators. Events studied so far indicate that estuaries rebound in one to three years following major short-term perturbations. However, repeated storm events without sufficient recovery time may cause a fundamental shift in ecosystem structure (Scavia et al. 2002). This is a scenario consistent with the predicted increase in hurricanes for the east coast of the United States. More work on the response of individual species to these stresses is needed so management of commercial resources can be adjusted to allow sufficient recovery time for affected populations.

Cruise Report: Summer 2008 Ecological Assessment of Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER NF-08-09-CCEHBR (June 14-June 21, 2008)

Summary: This cruise report is a summary of a field survey conducted within the Stellwagen Bank National Marine Sanctuary (SBNMS), located between Cape Cod and Cape Ann at the mouth of Massachusetts Bay. The survey was conducted June 14 – June 21, 2008 on NOAA Ship NANCY FOSTER Cruise NF-08-09-CCEHBR. Multiple indicators of ecological condition and human dimensions were sampled synoptically at each of 30 stations throughout SBNMS using a random probabilistic sampling design. Samples were collected for the analysis of benthic community structure and composition; concentrations of chemical contaminants (metals, pesticides, PAHs, PCBs, PBDEs) in sediments and target demersal biota; nutrient and chlorophyll levels in the water column; and other basic habitat characteristics such as depth, salinity, temperature, dissolved oxygen, turbidity, pH, sediment grain size, and organic carbon content. In addition to the fish samples that were collected for analysis of chemical contaminants relative to human-health consumption limits, other human-dimension indicators were sampled as well including presence or absence of fishing gear, vessels, surface trash, marine mammals, and noxious sediment odors. The overall purpose of the survey was to collect data to assess the status of ecosystem condition and potential stressor impacts throughout SBNMS, based on these various indicators and corresponding management thresholds, and to provide this information as a baseline for determining how such conditions may be changing with time. While sample analysis is still ongoing a few preliminary results and observations are reported here. A final report will be completed once all data have been processed. The results are anticipated to be of value in supporting goals of the SBNMS and National Marine Sanctuary Program aimed at the characterization, protection, and management of sanctuary resources (pursuant to the National Marine Sanctuary Reauthorization Act) as well as a new priority of NCCOS and NOAA to apply Ecosystem Based approaches to the Management of coastal resources (EBM) through Integrated Ecosystem Assessments (IEAs) conducted in various coastal regions of the U.S. including the Northeast Atlantic continental shelf. This was a multi-disciplinary partnership effort made possible by scientists from the following organizations:  NOAA, National Ocean Service (NOS), National Centers for Coastal Ocean Science (NCCOS), Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR), Charleston, SC.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Atlantic Ecology Division (GED), Narragansett, RI.  U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), Gulf Ecology Division (GED), Gulf Breeze, FL.  U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), National Wetlands Research Center, Gulf Breeze Project Office, Gulf Breeze, FL.  NOAA, Office of Marine and Aviation Operations (OMAO), NOAA ship Nancy Foster. (31pp) (PDF contains 58 pages)

Biogeographic analysis of the Tortugas Ecological Reserve: Examining the refuge effect following reserve establishment

Almost 120 days at sea aboard three NOAA research vessels and one fishing vessel over the past three years have supported biogeographic characterization of Tortugas Ecological Reserve (TER). This work initiated measurement of post-implementation effects of TER as a refuge for exploited species. In Tortugas South, seafloor transect surveys were conducted using divers, towed operated vehicles (TOV), remotely operated vehicles (ROV), various sonar platforms, and the Deepworker manned submersible. ARGOS drifter releases, satellite imagery, ichthyoplankton surveys, sea surface temperature, and diver census were combined to elucidate potential dispersal of fish spawning in this environment. Surveys are being compiled into a GIS to allow resource managers to gauge benthic resource status and distribution. Drifter studies have determined that within the ~ 30 days of larval life stage for fishes spawning at Tortugas South, larvae could reach as far downstream as Tampa Bay on the west Florida coast and Cape Canaveral on the east coast. Together with actual fish surveys and water mass delineation, this work demonstrates that the refuge status of this area endows it with tremendous downstream spillover and larval export potential for Florida reef habitats and promotes the maintenance of their fish communities. In Tortugas North, 30 randomly selected, permanent stations were established. Five stations were assigned to each of the following six areas: within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling north of the prevailing currents (Park North); within Dry Tortugas National Park, falling south of the prevailing currents (Park South); within the Ecological Reserve falling north of the prevailing currents (Reserve North); within the Ecological Reserve falling south of the prevailing currents (Reserve South); within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling north of the prevailing currents (Out North); and within areas immediately adjacent to these two strata, falling south of the prevailing currents (Out South). Intensive characterization of these sites was conducted using multiple sonar techniques, TOV, ROV, diver-based digital video collection, diver-based fish census, towed fish capture, sediment particle-size, benthic chlorophyll analyses, and stable isotope analyses of primary producers, fish, and, shellfish. In order to complement and extend information from studies focused on the coral reef, we have targeted the ecotone between the reef and adjacent, non-reef habitats as these areas are well-known in ecology for indicating changes in trophic relationships at the ecosystem scale. Such trophic changes are hypothesized to occur as top-down control of the system grows with protection of piscivorous fishes. Preliminary isotope data, in conjunction with our prior results from the west Florida shelf, suggest that the shallow water benthic habitats surrounding the coral reefs of TER will prove to be the source of a significant amount of the primary production ultimately fueling fish production throughout TER and downstream throughout the range of larval fish dispersal. Therefore, the status and influence of the previously neglected, non-reef habitat within the refuge (comprising ~70% of TER) appears to be intimately tied to the health of the coral reef community proper. These data, collected in a biogeographic context, employing an integrated Before-After Control Impact design at multiple spatial scales, leave us poised to document and quantify the postimplementation effects of TER. Combined with the work at Tortugas South, this project represents a multi-disciplinary effort of sometimes disparate disciplines (fishery oceanography, benthic ecology, food web analysis, remote sensing/geography/landscape ecology, and resource management) and approaches (physical, biological, ecological). We expect the continuation of this effort to yield critical information for the management of TER and the evaluation of protected areas as a refuge for exploited species. (PDF contains 32 pages.)

Approaches and frameworks for management and research in small-scale fisheries in the developing world

Commonly adopted approaches to managing small-scale fisheries (SSFs) in developing countries do not ensure sustainability. Progress is impeded by a gap between innovative SSF research and slower-moving SSF management. The paper aims to bridge the gap by showing that the three primary bases of SSF management--ecosystem, stakeholders’ rights and resilience--are mutually consistent and complementary. It nominates the ecosystem approach as an appropriate starting point because it is established in national and international law and policy. Within this approach, the emerging resilience perspective and associated concepts of adaptive management and institutional learning can move management beyond traditional control and resource-use optimization, which largely ignore the different expectations of stakeholders; the complexity of ecosystem dynamics; and how ecological, social, political and economic subsystems are linked. Integrating a rights-based perspective helps balance the ecological bias of ecosystem-based and resilience approaches. The paper introduces three management implementation frameworks that can lend structure and order to research and management regardless of the management approach chosen. Finally, it outlines possible research approaches to overcome the heretofore limited capacity of fishery research to integrate across ecological, social and economic dimensions and so better serve the management objective of avoiding fishery failure by nurturing and preserving the ecological, social and institutional attributes that enable it to renew and reorganize itself. (PDF contains 29 pages)