36 resultados para NATURAL-POPULATION ANALYSIS
em Aquatic Commons
Resumo:
Siren and Amphiuma are two poorly known genera of aquatic salamanders that occur in the Southeastern United States. A primarily bottom-dwelling existence makes these salamanders difficult to detect with conventional sampling methodologies. Therefore, the current status of their populations is unknown. I compared the capture success of modified crayfish traps and plastic minnow traps in capturing these salamanders. In addition, a mark-recapture study of S. lacertina (Greater siren) and A. means (Two-toed amphiuma) was conducted at Okefenokee National Wildlife Refuge (southern Georgia) and at Katharine Ordway Preserve (north-central Florida) from August 2001 until September 2002. Crayfish traps were much more successful than minnow traps in catching siren and amphiuma. Crayfish traps yielded 270 captures for an overall capture success of 16%, whereas minnow traps yielded only 13 captures for an overall success rate of 0.05%. In addition, several marking techniques were evaluated, and of these, only passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags were retained for the duration of the study. Therefore, I recommend this marking technique for long-term monitoring of S. lacertina and A. means. Several variables were found to have significant effects on capture rates of salamanders. A. means were most often captured in summer and the number of captures was positively correlated with water temperature, water level, and rainfall. S. lacertina were most often captured during winter and spring. Number of captures was negatively correlated with water temperature, while no relationship was found with water level or rainfall. Trap day and baiting had no significant effect on number of A. means or S. lacertina captured. Recapture probabilities of both species were low, 0.025-0.03 for S. lacertina and 0.08-0.11 for A. means. Monthly survival rates were high, 0.77-0.97 for A. means and 0.88-1.00 for S. lacertina. Density estimates of 1.3 salamanders/m2 (S. lacertina) and 0.28 salamanders/m2 (A. means) were obtained for Lake Suggs using Jolly-Seber models. Siren and amphiuma make up a substantial part of wetland biomass and can impact many other wetland species. Thus, more attention must be focused on evaluating and monitoring their populations.
Resumo:
Changes in the age structure and population size of white grunt, Haemulon plumieri, from North Carolina through the Florida Keys were examined using records of landings and size frequencies of fish from commercial, re~reational, and headboat fisheries from 1986-1998. Data were stratified into two geographical areas: North Carolina and South Carolina; and southeast Florida. Population size in numbers at age was estimated for each year and geographical area by applying an uncalibrated separable virtual population analysis (SVPA) to the landings in numbers at age. A calibrated virtual population analysis, FADAPT, was also run for data from North Carolina and South Carolina. SVPA and FADAPT were used to estimate annual, age-specific fishing mortality (F) for four levels of natural mortality (M = 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35). The best estimate of M for white grunt is 0.30. Landings of white grunt in the Carolinas for the three fisheries have generally decreased in recent years, but have held fairly steady for the species in southeast Florida. Age at entry and age at full recruitment were age-1 and age-4 for the Carolinas, and age-l and age-3 for southeast Florida. With M = 0.30, levels of fishing mortality (F) on the fully-recruited ages were 0.23 for the Carolinas and 0.33 for southeast Florida. Spawning potential ratio (SPR) at M = 0.30 was 57% for the Carolinas and 61% for southeast Florida, which indicates that the species, by definition, has not been over-exploited by fishing. The results of this assessment of the white grunt population off the Carolinas agree with the recent F/FMSY analysis of white grunt (Anonymous, 1999). (PDF contaons 72 pages)
Resumo:
Changes in the age structure and population size of vermilion snapper, Rhornboplites aurorubens, from North Carolina through the Florida Keys were examined using records of landings and size frequencies of fish from commercial, recreational, and headboat fisheries from 1986-1996. Population size in numbers at age was estimated for each year by applying separable virtual population analysis (SVPA) to the landings in numbers at age. SVPA was used to estimate annual, age-specific fishing mortality (F) for four levels of natural mortality (M = 0.20, 0.25, 0.30, and 0.35). Although landings of vermilion snapper for the three fisheries have declined, minimum fish size regulations have resulted in an increase in the mean size of fish landed. Age at entry and age at full recruitment were age-1 andage-3 fDr 1986-1991, compared with age-1 and age-4, respectively, for 1992-1996. Levels of mortality from fishing (F) ranged from 0.38 - 0.61 for the entire period. Current spawning potential ratio (SPR) is 21% or 27% depending on the natural mortality estimate. SPR could be raised to 30% or 40% with a reduction in F, or by increasing the age at entry to the fisheries. The latter could be enhanced now if fishermen, particularly recreational, comply with minimum size regulations. However, released fish mortality, modeled in the assessment at 27%, will continue to make the achievement of 30% and 40% SPR more difficult. (PDF contains 63 pages)
Resumo:
The pink shrimp, Haliporoides triarthrus, is an important species in the deep-water shrimp fishery in Mozambique. Total catches are in the range of 1,500 to 2,700 tons, with the pink shrimp accounting for 70-90%. Estimates of growth parameters and of natural mortality are used for a preliminary assessment of the fishery, based on length-structured virtual population analysis and yield-per-recruit analyses. With an arbitrarily chosen terminal fishing mortality F, the results indicate a situation of overfishing, but realistic parameters must be acquired in order to diagnose the state of the stock
Resumo:
This assessment applies to cobia (Rachycentron canadum) located in the territorial waters of the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Separation of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean is defined by the seaward extension of the Dade/Monroe county line in south Florida. Mixing of fish between the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico occurs in the Florida Keys during winter months. Cobia annually migrate north in early spring in the Gulf to spawning grounds in the northern Gulf of Mexico, returning to the Florida Keys by winter. Catches of cobia in the Gulf of Mexico are dominated by recreational landings, accounting for nearly 90% of the total. Since 1980, the landings of cobia in the recreational fishery have remained fairly stable at around 400-600 mt with a slight peak of 1,014 mt in 1997. The recreational fishery was estimated to have landed 471 mt in 2000. The landings from the commercial fishery have shown a steady increase from 45 mt in 1980 to a peak of 120 mt in 1994, followed by a decline to 62 mt in 2000. The previous assessment of cobia occurred in 1996 using a virtual population analysis (VPA) model. For this analysis a surplus-production model (ASPIC) and a forward-projecting, age-structured population model programmed in the AD Model Builder (ADMB) software were applied to cobia data from the Gulf of Mexico. The primary data consisted of four catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) indices derived from the Marine Recreational Fisheries Statistics Survey (MRFSS) (1981-1999), Southeast region headboat survey (1986-1999), Texas creel survey (1983-1999), and shrimp bycatch estimates (1980-1999). Length samples were available from the commercial (1983-2000) and recreational (1981-2000) fisheries. The ASPIC model applied to the cobia data provided unsatisfactory results. The ADMB model fit described the observed length composition data and fishery landings fairly well based on graphical examination of model residuals. The CPUE indices indicated some disagreement for various years, but the model fit an overall increasing trend from 1992-1997 for the MRFSS, headboat, and Texas creel indices. The shrimp bycatch CPUE was treated as a recruitment index in the model. The fit to these data followed an upward trend in recruitment from 1988-1997, but did not fit the 1994-1997 data points very well. This was likely the result of conflicting information from other data sources. Natural mortality (M) for cobia is unknown. As a result, a range of values for M from 0.2-0.4, based on longevity and growth parameters, were selected for use in the age-structured model. The choice of natural mortality appears to greatly influence the perceived status of the population. Population status as measured by spawning stock biomass in the last year relative to the value at maximum sustainable yield (SSB2000/SSBMSY), spawning stock biomass in the last year relative to virgin spawning stock biomass (SSB2000/S0), and static spawning stock biomass per recruit (SSBR) all indicate the population is either depleted, near MSY, or well above MSY depending on the choice of M. The variance estimates for these benchmarks are very large and in most cases ranges from depleted to very healthy status. The only statement that can be made with any degree of certainty about cobia in the Gulf of Mexico is that the population has increased since the 1980s. (PDF contains 61 pages)
Resumo:
A stock assessment of the gulf menhaden. Brevoortia patronus, fishery was conducted with data on purse-seine landings from 1946 to 1985 and port sampling data from 1964 to 1985. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, yield-per-recruit, spawner-recruit relationships, and maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Virtual population analysis was used to estimate stock size, year-class size, and fishing mortality rates. During the period studied, an average of 27% of age-l fish and 55% of age-2 and age-3 fish were taken by the fishery, and 54% for age-I and 38% for age-2 and -3 fish were lost annually to natural causes. Annual yield-per-recruit estimates ranged from 6.9 to 19.3 g, with recent mean conditions averaging 12.2 g since 1978. Surplus production models produced estimates of MSY from 620 to 700 kilometric tons. Recruits to age-I ranged from 8.3 to 41.8 billion fish for 1964-82. Although there was substantial scatter about the fitted curves, Ricker·type spawner-recruit relationships were found suitable for use in a population simulation model. Estimates of MSY from population simulation model runs ranged from 705 to 825 kilometric tons with F -multiples of the mean rate of fishing ranging from 1.0 to 1.5. Recent harvests in excess of the historical MSY may not be detrimental to the gulf menhaden stock. However, one should not expect long-term harvesting above the historical MSY because of the short life span of gulf menhaden and possible changes from currently favorable environmental conditions supporting high recruitment.(PDF file contains 24 pages.)
Resumo:
The role of life-history theory in population and evolutionary analyses is outlined. In both cases general life histories can be analysed, but simpler life histories need fewer parameters for their description. The simplest case, of semelparous (breed-once-then-die) organisms, needs only three parameters: somatic growth rate, mortality rate and fecundity. This case is analysed in detail. If fecundity is fixed, population growth rate can be calculated direct from mortality rate and somatic growth rate, and isoclines on which population growth rate is constant can be drawn in a ”state space” with axes for mortality rate and somatic growth rate. In this space density-dependence is likely to result in a population trajectory from low density, when mortality rate is low and somatic growth rate is high and the population increases (positive population growth rate) to high density, after which the process reverses to return to low density. Possible effects of pollution on this system are discussed. The state-space approach allows direct population analysis of the twin effects of pollution and density on population growth rate. Evolutionary analysis uses related methods to identify likely evolutionary outcomes when an organism's genetic options are subject to trade-offs. The trade-off considered here is between somatic growth rate and mortality rate. Such a trade-off could arise because of an energy allocation trade-off if resources spent on personal defence (reducing mortality rate) are not available for somatic growth rate. The evolutionary implications of pollution acting on such a trade-off are outlined.
Resumo:
Length-frequency data of Metapenaeus affinis collected from the trawl catches of R/V Bahith in Kuwaiti waters from 1985 to 1989 were combined with estimates of monthly total catch by the commercial and small-scale fleets operating in Kuwait, and analyzed using the Compleat ELEFAN software package. A major recruitment pulse of M. affinis occurs in spring and a minor one in autumn. Optimum relative yield per recruit (Y'/R) is obtained with the length-at-first capture (L sub(c)) of 24.4 cm CL for females and < 17.6 m CL for males. Virtual population analysis results indicated that the biomasses have decreased during the last three-year period for which data were available.
Resumo:
Status of the southeastern U.S. stock of red porgy (Pagrus pagrus) was estimated from fishery-dependent and fishery-independent data, 1972–97. Annual population numbers and fishing mortality rates at age were estimated from virtual population analysis (VPA) calibrated with fishery-independent data. For the VPA, a primary matrix of catch at age was based on age-length keys from fishery-independent samples; an alternate matrix was based on fishery-dependent keys. Additional estimates of stock status were obtained from a surplus-production model, also calibrated with fishery-independent indices of abundance. Results describe a dramatic increase in exploitation of this stock and concomitant decline in abundance. Estimated fully recruited fishing mortality rate (F) from the primary catch matrix increased from 0.10/yr in 1975 to 0.88/yr in 1997, and estimated static spawning potential ratio (SPR) declined from about 67% to about 18%. Estimated recruitment to age 1 declined from a peak of 3.0 million fish in 1973–74 to 94,000 fish in 1997, a decline of 96.9%. Estimated spawning-stock biomass declined from a peak of 3530 t in 1979 to 397 t in 1997, a decline of 88.8%. Results from the alternate catch matrix were similar. Retrospective patterns in the VPA suggest that the future estimates of this population decline will be severe, but may be less than present estimates. Long-term and marked declines in recruitment, spawning stock, and catch per unit of effort (both fishery-derived and fishery-independent)are consistent with severe overexploitation during a period of reduced recruitment. Although F prior to 1995 has generally been estimated at or below the current management criterion for overfishing (F equivalent to SPR=35%), the recent spawning-stock biomass is well below the biomass that could support maximum sustainable yield. Significant reductions in fishing mortality will be needed for rebuilding the southeastern U.S. stock.
Resumo:
Assessments of the Atlantic red drum for the northern (North Carolina and north) and southern (South Carolina through east coast of Florida) regions along the U. S. Atlantic coast were recently completed. The joint Red Drum Technical Committee (SAFMC/ASMFC) selected the most appropriate catch matrix (incorporating an assumption on size of recreationally-released fish), selectivity of age 3 relative to age 2, and virtual population analysis (FADAPT). Given gear- and age-specific estimates of fishing mortality (F) for the 1992-1998 period, analyses were made of potential gains in escapement through age 4 and static spawning potential ratio (SPR) from further reductions in fishing mortality due to changes in slot and bag limits. Savings from bag limits were calculated given a particular slot size for the recreational fishery, with no savings for the commercial fisheries in the northern region due to their being managed primarily through a quota. Relative changes in catch-at-age estimates were used to adjust age-specific F and hence calculated escapement through age 4 and static SPR. Adjustment was made with the recreational savings to account for release mortality (10%, as in the stock assessment). Alternate runs for the northern region commercial fishery considered 25% release mortality for lengths outside the slot (instead of 0% for the base run), and 0% vs. 10% gain or loss across legal sizes in F. These results are summarized for ranges of bag limits with increasing minimum size limit (for fixed maximum size), and with decreasing maximum size limit (for fixed minimum size limit). For the southern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip would be required to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR if the current slot limit were not changed. However, for the northern region, a bag limit of one-fish per angler trip appears to be insufficient to attain the stated target of 40% static SPR while maintaining the current slot limit. (PDF contains 41 pages)
Resumo:
A stock assessment of the Atlantic menhaden, Brevoortia tyrannus, fishery was conducted with purse-seine landings data from 1940 to 1984 and port sampling data from 1955 to 1984. These data were analyzed to determine growth rates, maximum sustainable yield (MSY), spawner-recruit relationships, and yield per recruit. Virtual population analysis was used to estimate stock size, year class size, and fishing mortality rates. Surplus production models produced estimates of MSY from 450 to 490 kmt compared with yields of 416to 436 kmt based roughly on maximum recruitment from a weak spawner-recruit relationship. Recruitment to age-I ranged from 1.2 to 14.8 billion fish for year classes 1955-81. Recent mean recruitment to age-I for the 1975-81 year classes averaged 5.7 billion fish and compared favorably with the mean of 7.7 billion age-I fish recruited during the late 1950's. Mean recruitment from recent years suggests possible coastwide yields of 416 to 481 kmt. Continued dominance of late age-2 spawners among the spawning stock is of concern, since the stock is at greater risk through poor recruitment if recent favorable environmental conditions change. Yield-per-recruit estimates ranged from 46 g to 59 g since 1970. The high dependency of the modern fishery on prespawners has increased concerns about fluctuations in year-to-year availability and catches. To increase yield and enhance the stability of the resource, the number of age classes contributing significantly to the fishery should be increased, creating a butTer against future poor recruitment years and lessening the year-to-year fluctuations in landings. (PDF file contains 24 pages.)
Resumo:
Accurate and precise estimates of age and growth rates are essential parameters in understanding the population dynamics of fishes. Some of the more sophisticated stock assessment models, such as virtual population analysis, require age and growth information to partition catch data by age. Stock assessment efforts by regulatory agencies are usually directed at specific fisheries which are being heavily exploited and are suspected of being overfished. Interest in stock assessment of some of the oceanic pelagic fishes (tunas, billfishes, and sharks) has developed only over the last decade, during which exploitation has increased steadily in response to increases in worldwide demand for these resources. Traditionally, estimating the age of fishes has been done by enumerating growth bands on skeletal hardparts, through length frequency analysis, tag and recapture studies, and raising fish in enclosures. However, problems related to determining the age of some of the oceanic pelagic fishes are unique compared with other species. For example, sampling is difficult for these large, highly mobile fishes because of their size, extensive distributions throughout the world's oceans, and for some, such as the marlins, infrequent catches. In addition, movements of oceanic pelagic fishes often transect temperate as well as tropical oceans, making interpretation of growth bands on skeletal hardparts more difficult than with more sedentary temperate species. Many oceanic pelagics are also long-lived, attaining ages in excess of 30 yr, and more often than not, their life cycles do not lend themselves easily to artificial propagation and culture. These factors contribute to the difficulty of determining ages and are generally characteristic of this group-the tunas, billfishes, and sharks. Accordingly, the rapidly growing international concern in managing oceanic pelagic fishes, as well as unique difficulties in ageing these species, prompted us to hold this workshop. Our two major objectives for this workshop are to: I) Encourage the interchange of ideas on this subject, and 2) establish the "state of the art." A total of 65 scientists from 10 states in the continental United States and Hawaii, three provinces in Canada, France, Republic of Senegal, Spain, Mexico, Ivory Coast, and New South Wales (Australia) attended the workshop held at the Southeast Fisheries Center, Miami, Fla., 15-18 February 1982. Our first objective, encouraging the interchange of ideas, is well illustrated in the summaries of the Round Table Discussions and in the Glossary, which defines terms used in this volume. The majority of the workshop participants agreed that the lack of validation of age estimates and the means to accomplish the same are serious problems preventing advancements in assessing the age and growth of fishes, particularly oceanic pelagics. The alternatives relating to the validation problem were exhaustively reviewed during the Round Table Discussions and are a major highlight of this workshop. How well we accomplished our second objective, to establish the "state of the art" on age determination of oceanic pelagic fishes, will probably best be judged on the basis of these proceedings and whether future research efforts are directed at the problem areas we have identified. In order to produce high-quality papers, workshop participants served as referees for the manuscripts published in this volume. Several papers given orally at the workshop, and included in these proceedings, were summarized from full-length manuscripts, which have been submitted to or published in other scientific outlets-these papers are designated as SUMMARY PAPERS. In addition, the SUMMARY PAPER designation was also assigned to workshop papers that represented very preliminary or initial stages of research, cursory progress reports, papers that were data shy, or provide only brief reviews on general topics. Bilingual abstracts were included for all papers that required translation. We gratefully acknowledge the support of everyone involved in this workshop. Funding was provided by the Southeast Fisheries Center, and Jack C. Javech did the scientific illustrations appearing on the cover, between major sections, and in the Glossary. (PDF file contains 228 pages.)
Resumo:
Since years the International Herring Larvae Survey Program (IHLS) is an important and internationally established survey program in the North Sea. The IHLS serves the calibration of stock abundance estimates based on information from the commercial fishery and the method of Integrated Catch Analysis (ICA) which is a specific derivate of the Virtual Population Analysis (VPA). Meanwhile the IHLS database has been transferred from Aberdeen to Kiel and it has been agreed that the Institut für Meereskunde Kiel should continue to maintain this database and provide the abundance indices to be utilized by the ICES Herring Assessment Working Group as one of the means for assessing the state of the herring stock in the North Sea. For establishing the calculation procedure at Kiel, it was necessary to optimize both, the survey design and the index calculation. This article gives an overview over the survey’s history, it’s geography, the sampling design, the information content of the IHLS data base and the various methods of calculating the different indices necessary for the calibration.
Resumo:
Vom 24. August bis 02. September 1993 trafen sich in Kopenhagen Wissenschaftler aus Norwegen, Russland, Spanien, Kanada, Grönland und Deutschland, um Bestandsberechnungen (Assessments) für das Jahr 1993 an den Nordost-atlantischen Beständen des Kabeljau, Schellfisch, Seelachs, Rotbarsch und Schwarzen Heilbutt durchzuführen. Für die Bestandberechnungen standen der Arbeitsgruppe Daten des Jahres 1992 aus der kommerziellen Fischerei verschiedener Länder sowie Ergebnisse und Indices norwegischer und russischer Forschungsschiffe zur Verfügung. Die Assessments wurden mit der V.P.A. (Virtual Population Analysis), mit XSA (Extended Survivors Analysis) und der ADAPT-Methode gerechnet. Die wichtigsten Ergebnisse dieser Bestandberechnungen sowie die im November veröffentlichte Stellungnahme des ACFM (Advisory Committee on Fishery Management) sollen im nachfolgenden dargestellt werden.