10 resultados para Modelo de risco proporcional de cox.

em Aquatic Commons


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English: We describe an age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis (A-SCALA) based on the MULTIFAN-CL model of Fournier et al. (1998). The analysis is applied independently to both the yellowfin and the bigeye tuna populations of the eastern Pacific Ocean (EPO). We model the populations from 1975 to 1999, based on quarterly time steps. Only a single stock for each species is assumed for each analysis, but multiple fisheries that are spatially separate are modeled to allow for spatial differences in catchability and selectivity. The analysis allows for error in the effort-fishing mortality relationship, temporal trends in catchability, temporal variation in recruitment, relationships between the environment and recruitment and between the environment and catchability, and differences in selectivity and catchability among fisheries. The model is fit to total catch data and proportional catch-at-length data conditioned on effort. The A-SCALA method is a statistical approach, and therefore recognizes that the data collected from the fishery do not perfectly represent the population. Also, there is uncertainty in our knowledge about the dynamics of the system and uncertainty about how the observed data relate to the real population. The use of likelihood functions allow us to model the uncertainty in the data collected from the population, and the inclusion of estimable process error allows us to model the uncertainties in the dynamics of the system. The statistical approach allows for the calculation of confidence intervals and the testing of hypotheses. We use a Bayesian version of the maximum likelihood framework that includes distributional constraints on temporal variation in recruitment, the effort-fishing mortality relationship, and catchability. Curvature penalties for selectivity parameters and penalties on extreme fishing mortality rates are also included in the objective function. The mode of the joint posterior distribution is used as an estimate of the model parameters. Confidence intervals are calculated using the normal approximation method. It should be noted that the estimation method includes constraints and priors and therefore the confidence intervals are different from traditionally calculated confidence intervals. Management reference points are calculated, and forward projections are carried out to provide advice for making management decisions for the yellowfin and bigeye populations. Spanish: Describimos un análisis estadístico de captura a talla estructurado por edad, A-SCALA (del inglés age-structured statistical catch-at-length analysis), basado en el modelo MULTIFAN- CL de Fournier et al. (1998). Se aplica el análisis independientemente a las poblaciones de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo del Océano Pacífico oriental (OPO). Modelamos las poblaciones de 1975 a 1999, en pasos trimestrales. Se supone solamente una sola población para cada especie para cada análisis, pero se modelan pesquerías múltiples espacialmente separadas para tomar en cuenta diferencias espaciales en la capturabilidad y selectividad. El análisis toma en cuenta error en la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, tendencias temporales en la capturabilidad, variación temporal en el reclutamiento, relaciones entre el medio ambiente y el reclutamiento y entre el medio ambiente y la capturabilidad, y diferencias en selectividad y capturabilidad entre pesquerías. Se ajusta el modelo a datos de captura total y a datos de captura a talla proporcional condicionados sobre esfuerzo. El método A-SCALA es un enfoque estadístico, y reconoce por lo tanto que los datos obtenidos de la pesca no representan la población perfectamente. Además, hay incertidumbre en nuestros conocimientos de la dinámica del sistema e incertidumbre sobre la relación entre los datos observados y la población real. El uso de funciones de verosimilitud nos permite modelar la incertidumbre en los datos obtenidos de la población, y la inclusión de un error de proceso estimable nos permite modelar las incertidumbres en la dinámica del sistema. El enfoque estadístico permite calcular intervalos de confianza y comprobar hipótesis. Usamos una versión bayesiana del marco de verosimilitud máxima que incluye constreñimientos distribucionales sobre la variación temporal en el reclutamiento, la relación esfuerzo-mortalidad por pesca, y la capturabilidad. Se incluyen también en la función objetivo penalidades por curvatura para los parámetros de selectividad y penalidades por tasas extremas de mortalidad por pesca. Se usa la moda de la distribución posterior conjunta como estimación de los parámetros del modelo. Se calculan los intervalos de confianza usando el método de aproximación normal. Cabe destacar que el método de estimación incluye constreñimientos y distribuciones previas y por lo tanto los intervalos de confianza son diferentes de los intervalos de confianza calculados de forma tradicional. Se calculan puntos de referencia para el ordenamiento, y se realizan proyecciones a futuro para asesorar la toma de decisiones para el ordenamiento de las poblaciones de aleta amarilla y patudo.

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This study examines the harvest and mean production in relation to the stocking of P. monodon fry during the period between March 1992 and October 1994, at the farm owned by M/s Monugung Sea Food Ltd., Cox's Bazar. The analysis shows that production figures were initially up to expectation, but after harvesting 4 crops within 16 months, production sharply decreased. The unexpected high mortality of the growing stock was due to outbreak of an uncontrollabe disease (Vibriosis). Significantly higher variations in production, survival and growth were also noted among the different treatments.

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In total 68 phytoplankton species were identified at the mouth of the Maheshkhali channel with the Bay of Bengal, among them 41 belong to Bacillariophyceae, 17 Dinophyceae, 7 Cyanophyceae and 3 to Chlorophyceae. The highest phytoplankton production was observed in November (578.0 x 105 cells/L) and the lowest in June (37.5 x 105 cells/L). Some hydrographic parameters e.g., surface water temperature, salinity and nutrients (N03-N and P04-P) were recorded and their relationship with the occurrence and abundance of phytoplankton population were also studied. Nutrient concentration was higher during the autumn months, when rain water provided the maximum outflow of rivers discharging into the channel. During the nutrient peak period, the total phytoplankton production was maximum. Bacillariophyceae was the dominant group of phytoplankton throughout the study period except in June and September, when Dinophyceae was dominant. Cyanophyceae was abundant in spring months when temperature began to rise.

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Recommendations form the workshop included:establishment of "Pilot Sites"; trans-boundary ecosystem resource sharing;establishment of Marine Protected Areas(MPAs); joint research;promotion of co-management principles; preparation of a regional "coastal atlas" and development of a communications strategy

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Penaeus monodon (Fabricius, 1798) is a popular cultivable species and valuable foreign exchange earning item among all the fishery commodities in Bangladesh. At present with semi-intensive and intensive shrimp culture practices, disease is a problem. Protozoan infection, caused by the Zoothamnium sp. is one of the causes of damage in the total production by growth retardation and mortality. No work has yet been done on shrimp disease in Bangladesh. The present account therefore, constitutes the first report on it from the shrimp culture ponds of Cox's Bazar. The present work includes the occurrence and prevalence of protozoan disease, its seasonal variations and level of infestation in different length groups in Penaeus monodon.