6 resultados para Modeling and simulation

em Aquatic Commons


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This panel will discuss the research being conducted, and the models being used in three current coastal EPA studies being conducted on ecosystem services in Tampa Bay, the Chesapeake Bay and the Coastal Carolinas. These studies are intended to provide a broader and more comprehensive approach to policy and decision-making affecting coastal ecosystems as well as provide an account of valued services that have heretofore been largely unrecognized. Interim research products, including updated and integrated spatial data, models and model frameworks, and interactive decision support systems will be demonstrated to engage potential users and to elicit feedback. It is anticipated that the near-term impact of the projects will be to increase the awareness by coastal communities and coastal managers of the implications of their actions and to foster partnerships for ecosystem services research and applications. (PDF contains 4 pages)

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Sustainability of benefits from capture fisheries has been a concern of fisheries scientists for a long time. The development of fisheries management models reflects the historical debate (from maximum sustainable yield to maximum economic yield, and so on) of what benefits are valued and need to be sustained. Social and anthropological research needs an increased emphasis on bio-socioeconomic models to effectively determine directions for fisheries management.

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Age estimates for striped trumpeter (Latris lineata) from Tasmanian waters were produced by counting annuli on the transverse section of sagittal otoliths and were validated by comparison of growth with known-age individuals and modal progression of a strong recruitment pulse. Estimated ages ranged from one to 43 years; fast growth rates were observed for the first five years. Minimal sexual dimorphism was shown to exist between length, weight, and growth characteristics of striped trumpeter. Seasonal growth variability was strong in individuals up to at least age four, and growth rates peaked approximately one month after the observed peak in sea surface temperature. A modified two-phase von Bertalanffy growth function was fitted to the length-at-age data, and the transition between growth phases was linked to apparent changes in physiological and life history traits, including offshore movement as fish approach maturity. The two-phase curve was found to represent the mean length at age in the data better than the standard von Bertalanffy growth function. Total mortality was estimated by using catch curve analysis based on the standard and two-phase von Bertalanffy growth functions, and estimates of natural mortality were calculated by using two empirical models, one based on longevity and the other based on the parameters L∞ and k from both growth functions. The interactions between an inshore gillnet fishery targeting predominately juveniles and an offshore hook fishery targeting predominately adults highlight the need to use a precautionary approach when developing harvest strategies.

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The life history and population dynamics of the finetooth shark (Carcharhinus isodon) in the north-eastern Gulf of Mexico were studied by determining age, growth, size-at-maturity, natural mortality, productivity, and elasticity of vital rates of the population. The von Bertalanffy growth model was estimated as Lt=1559 mm TL (1–e–0.24 (t+2.07)) for females and Lt = 1337 mm TL (1–e–0.41 (t+1.39)) for males. For comparison, the Fabens growth equation was also fitted separately to observed size-at-age data, and the fits to the data were found to be similar. The oldest aged specimens were 8.0 and 8.1 yr, and theoretical longevity estimates were 14.4 and 8.5 yr for females and males, respectively. Median length at maturity was 1187 and 1230 mm TL, equivalent to 3.9 and 4.3 yr for males and females, respectively. Two scenarios, based on the results of the two equations used to describe growth, were considered for population modeling and the results were similar. Annual rates of survivorship estimated through five methods ranged from 0.850/yr to 0.607/yr for scenario 1 and from 0.840/yr to 0.590/yr for scenario 2. Productivities were 0.041/yr for scenario 1 and 0.038/yr for scenario 2 when the population level that produces maximum sustain-able yield is assumed to occur at an instantaneous total mortality rate (Z) equaling 1.5 M, and were 0.071/yr and 0.067/yr, when Z=2 M for scenario 1 and 2, respectively. Mean generation time was 6.96 yr and 6.34 yr for scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Elasticities calculated through simulation of Leslie matrices averaged 12.6% (12.1% for scenario 2) for fertility, 47.7% (46.2% for scenario 2) for juvenile survival, and 39.7% (41.6% for scenario 2) for adult survival. In all, the finetooth shark exhibits life-history and population characteristics intermediate to those of sharks in the small coastal complex and those from some large coastal species, such as the blacktip shark (Carcharhinus limbatus).