TUNPOP, a computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and the surface tuna fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Mathematical documentation of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the yellowfin tuna population and surface tuna fishery of the eastern Pacific Ocean, is described. Example runs of the model are presented and discussed, and the sensitivity of the model output to changes in various parameters is examined. SPANISH: Se describe la documentación matemática de TUNP0P, un modelo computador de simulación basado en la edad de la población del atún aleta amarilla y de la pesca atunera epipelágíca del Océano Pacífico oriental. Se presentan y se discuten ejemplos de las pasadas del modelo, y se examina la sensibilidad de los resultados de salida con relación a los cambios de varios parámetros. (PDF contains 47 pages.)

A model of the pelagic ecossystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean

English: Recent calls for a more holistic approach to fisheries management have motivated development of trophic mass-balance models of ecosystems that underlie fisheries production. We developed a model hypothesis of the pelagic ecosystem in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean (ETP) to gain insight into the relationships among the various species in the system and to explore the ecological implications of alternative methods of harvesting tunas. We represented the biomasses of and fluxes between the principal elements in the ecosystem with Ecopath, and examined the ecosystem's dynamic, time-series behavior with Ecosim. We parameterized the model for 38 species or groups of species, and described the sources, justifications, assumptions, and revisions of our estimates of the various parameters, diet relations, fisheries landings, and fisheries discards in the model. We conducted sensitivity analyses with an intermediate version of the model, for both the Ecopath mass-balance and the dynamic trajectories predicted by Ecosim. The analysis showed that changes in the basic parameters for two components at middle trophic levels, Cephalopods and Auxis spp., exert the greatest influence on the system. When the Cephalopod Q/B and Auxis spp. P/B were altered from their initial values and the model was rebalanced, the trends of the biomass trajectories predicted by Ecosim were not sensitive, but the scaling was sensitive for several components. We described the review process the model was subjected to, which included reviews by the IATTC Purse-seine Bycatch Working Group and by a working group supported by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis. We fitted the model to historical time series of catches per unit of effort and mortality rates for yellowfin and bigeye tunas in simulations that incorporated historical fishing effort and a climate driver to represent the effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation-scale variation on the system. The model was designed to evaluate the possible ecological implications of fishing for tunas in various ways. We recognize that a model cannot possibly represent all the complexity of a pelagic ocean ecosystem, but we believe that the ETP model provides insight into the structure and function of the pelagic ETP. Spanish: Llamamientos recientes hacia un enfoque más holístico al ordenamiento de la pesca han motivado el desarrollo de modelos tróficos de balance de masas de los ecosistemas que sostienen la producción pesquera. Desarrollamos una hipótesis modelo del ecosistema pelágico en el Océano Pacífico oriental tropical (POT) con miras a mejorar los conocimientos de las relaciones entre las distintas especies en el sistema y explorar las implicaciones ecológicas de métodos alternativos de capturar atunes. Con Ecopath representamos las biomasas de los elementos principales en el ecosistema, y los flujos entre los mismos, y con Ecosim examinamos el comportamiento dinámico del ecosistema con el tiempo. Parametrizamos el modelo para 38 especies o grupos de especies (denominados “componentes” del modelo), y describimos las fuentes, justificaciones, supuestos, y revisiones de nuestras estimaciones de los distintos parámetros, relaciones basadas en dieta, capturas retenidas de las pesquerías, y descartes de las mismas en el modelo. Realizamos análisis de sensibilidad con una versión intermedia del modelo, para el balance de masas de Ecopath y las trayectorias dinámicas predichas por Ecosim también. El análisis demostró que cambios en los parámetros básicos para dos componentes en niveles tróficos medianos, Cefalópodos y Auxis spp., ejercieron la mayor influencia sobre el sistema. Cuando se alteraron el Q/B de los Cefalópodos y el P/B de los Auxis spp. de sus valores iniciales y se balanceó el modelo de nuevo, las tendencias de las trayectorias de la biomasa predichas por Ecosim no fueron sensibles, pero la escala fue sensible para varios componentes. Describimos el proceso de revisión al que fue sujeto el modelo, inclusive revisiones por el Grupo de Trabajo sobre Captura Incidental de la CIAT y un grupo de trabajo apoyado por el Centro Nacional para Síntesis y Análisis Ecológicos. Ajustamos el modelo a series de tiempo históricas de capturas por unidad de esfuerzo y tasas de mortalidad de atunes aleta amarilla y patudo en simulaciones que incorporaron esfuerzo de pesca histórico e impulsos climáticos para representar el efecto de variaciones a escala de El Niño-Oscilación del Sur sobre el sistema. El modelo fue diseñado para evaluar las posibles implicaciones ecológicas de la pesca atunera de varias formas. Reconocemos la imposibilidad de que el modelo represente toda la complejidad de un ecosistema oceánico pelágico, pero creemos que el modelo del POT mejora los conocimientos de la estructura y función del POT pelágico.

A simulation model of the dynamics of Peruvian anchoveta (Engraulis ringens)

The article describes the key elements of a model simulating the dynamics of the anchoveta (Engraulis ringens) in the Peruvian upwelling system (4 degrees to 14 degrees South). This model, based on coupled differential equations, is parametrized mainly using empirical data and functional relationships presented in two volumes issued by ICLARM in 1987 and 1989, and may thus be viewed as test of the hypotheses presented therein. Results to date suggest that present knowledge of mechanisms controlling the anchoveta stock is essentially consistent, and sufficient to build a model reflecting essential features of the stock biomass and recruitment dynamics.

Comparisons of open boundary conditions in a barotropic model of the northern Arabian Sea

These simulations are focused on the sensitivity of the barotropic ocean non-linear model to the various open boundary conditions (OBCs). Different OBCs from gradient to radiation condition are examined to determine the best result and help to choose the most appropriate OBCs. Since the interior points are changing with time both implicit and explicit forms are applied. The simulations showed that the interior flow is sensitive to changes in the OBCs and the results are highly dependent on the bathymetry of the area. When a constant depth (100m) is used, the circulation pattern with all OBCs is same. The best boundary conditions are Orlanski Radiation and its modified form. These boundary conditions produce identical adjustment in velocity and are determined to be satisfactory for both constant depth and actual bathymetry.

An exploratory ecosystem model of the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem

The study's aim was to develop and ecosystem model of the Bay of Bengal built with Ecopath and Ecoism software.The Ecopath model was built to represent 1978 and synthesise available population dynamics and fisheries data. A preliminary Ecoism was set up to explore interactions between functional groups and the impact of fishing.

An exploratory ecosystem model of the Bay of Bengal Large Marine Ecosystem

The study's aim was to develop and ecosystem model of the Bay of Bengal built with Ecopath and Ecoism software.The Ecopath model was built to represent 1978 and synthesise available population dynamics and fisheries data. A preliminary Ecoism was set up to explore interactions between functional groups and the impact of fishing.

PICES-GLOBEC International Program On Climate Change And Carrying Capacity: Report of the 2000 BASS, MODEL, MONITOR and REX workshops, and the 2001 BASS/MODEL workshop

Table of Contents [pdf, 0.07 Mb] Executive Summary [pdf, 0.05 Mb] Report of the 2000 BASS Workshop on The Development of a conceptual model of the Subarctic Pacific basin ecosystems [pdf, 0.71 Mb] Report of the 2000 MODEL Workshop on Strategies for coupling higher and lower trophic level marine ecosystem models [pdf, 3.62 Mb] Report of the 2000 MONITOR Workshop on Progress in monitoring the North Pacific [pdf, 1.21 Mb] Report of the 2000 REX Workshop on Trends in herring populations and trophodynamics [pdf, 4.22 Mb] Report of the 2001 BASS/MODEL Workshop on Higher trophic level modeling [pdf, 0.29 Mb] (Document pdf contains 119 pages)

Report of the 2004 Workshop on In Situ Iron Enrichment Experiments in the Eastern and Western Subarctic Pacific

Foreword 1. BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 2. 2004 WORKSHOP SUMMARY (pdf, < 0.1 Mb) 2.1. What have we learned from the enrichment experiments? 2.2 What are the outstanding questions? 2.3 Recommendations for SEEDS-II 3. EXTENDED ABSTRACTS OF THE 2004 WORKSHOP 3.1 Synthesis of the Iron Enrichment Experiments: SEEDS and SERIES (pdf, 0.5 Mb) Iron fertilization experiment in the western subarctic Pacific (SEEDS) by Atsushi Tsuda The response of N and Si to iron enrichment in the Northeast Pacific Ocean: Results from SERIES by David Timothy, C.S. Wong, Yukihiro Nojiri, Frank A. Whitney, W. Keith Johnson and Janet Barwell-Clarke 3.2 Biological and Physiological Responses (pdf, 0.2 Mb) Zooplankton responses during SEEDS by Hiroaki Saito Phytoplankton community response to iron and temperature gradient in the NW and NE subarctic Pacific Ocean by Isao Kudo, Yoshifumi Noiri, Jun Nishioka, Hiroshi Kiyosawa and Atsushi Tsuda SERIES: Copepod grazing on diatoms by Frank A. Whitney, Moira Galbraith, Janet Barwell-Clarke and Akash Sastri The Southern Ocean Iron Enrichment Experiment: The nitrogen uptake response by William P. Cochlan and Raphael M. Kudela 3.3 Biogeochemical Responses (pdf, 0.5 Mb) What have we learned regarding iron biogeochemistry from iron enrichment experiments? by Jun Nishioka, Shigenobu Takeda and W. Keith Johnson Iron dynamics and temporal changes of iron speciation in SERIES by W. Keith Johnson, C.S. Wong, Nes Sutherland and Jun Nishioka Dissolved organic matter dynamics during SEEDS and SERIES experiments by Takeshi Yoshimura and Hiroshi Ogawa Formation of transparent exopolymer particles during the in-situ iron enrichment experiment in the western subarctic Pacific (SEEDS) by Shigenobu Takeda, Neelam Ramaiah, Ken Furuya and Takeshi Yoshimura Atmospheric measurement by Mitsuo Uematsu 3.4 Prediction from Models (pdf, 0.3 Mb) Modelling iron limitation in the North Pacific by Kenneth L. Denman and M. Angelica Peña A proposed model of the SERIES iron fertilization patch by Debby Ianson, Christoph Voelker and Kenneth L. Denman 4. LIST OF PARTICIPANTS FOR THE 2004 WORKSHOP (pdf, < 0.1 Mb) APPENDIX 1 Report of the 2000 Planning Workshop on Designing the Iron Fertilization Experiment in the Subarctic Pacific (pdf, 1 Mb) APPENDIX 2 Terms of Reference for the Advisory Panel on Iron fertilization experiment in the subarctic Pacific Ocean (pdf, < 0.1 Mb) APPENDIX 3 Historical List of Advisory Panel Members on Iron fertilization experiment in the subarctic Pacific Ocean (pdf, < 0.1 Mb) APPENDIX 4 IFEP-AP Annual Reports (pdf, 0.1 Mb) APPENDIX 5 PICES Press Articles (pdf, 0.6 Mb) (194 page document)

Proceedings of the Workshop on the Okhotsk Sea and Adjacent Areas [Vladivostok, June 1995]

I REPORT OF THE PICES WORKSHOP ON THE OKHOTSK SEA AND ADJACENT AREAS (pdf, 0.1 Mb) 1. Outline of the workshop 2. Summary reports from sessions 3. Recommendations of the workshop 4. Acknowledgments II SCIENTIFIC PAPERS SUBMITTED FROM SESSIONS 1. Physical Oceanography Sessions (pdf, 4 Mb) A. Circulation and water mass structure of the Okhotsk Sea and Northwestern Pacific Valentina D. Budaeva & Vyacheslav G. Makarov Seasonal variability of the pycnocline in La Perouse Strait and Aniva Gulf Valentina D. Budaeva & Vyacheslav G. Makarov Modeling of the typical water circulations in the La Perouse Strait and Aniva Gulf region Nina A. Dashko, Sergey M. Varlamov, Young-Ho Han & Young-Seup Kim Anticyclogenesis over the Okhotsk Sea and its influence on weather Boris S. Dyakov, Alexander A. Nikitin & Vadim P. Pavlychev Research of water structure and dynamics in the Okhotsk Sea and adjacent Pacific Howard J. Freeland, Alexander S. Bychkov, C.S. Wong, Frank A. Whitney & Gennady I. Yurasov The Ohkotsk Sea component of Pacific Intermediate Water Emil E. Herbeck, Anatoly I. Alexanin, Igor A. Gontcharenko, Igor I. Gorin, Yury V. Naumkin & Yury G. Proshjants Some experience of the satellite environmental support of marine expeditions at the Far East Seas Alexander A. Karnaukhov The tidal influence on the Sakhalin shelf hydrology Yasuhiro Kawasaki On the formation process of the subsurface mixed water around the Central Kuril Islands Lloyd D. Keigwin Northwest Pacific paleohydrography Talgat R. Kilmatov Physical mechanisms for the North Pacific Intermediate Water formation Vladimir A. Luchin Water masses in the Okhotsk Sea Andrey V. Martynov, Elena N. Golubeva & Victor I. Kuzin Numerical experiments with finite element model of the Okhotsk Sea circulation Nikolay A. Maximenko, Anatoly I. Kharlamov & Raissa I. Gouskina Structure of Intermediate Water layer in the Northwest Pacific Nikolay A. Maximenko & Andrey Yu. Shcherbina Fine-structure of the North Pacific Intermediate Water layer Renat D. Medjitov & Boris I. Reznikov An experimental study of water transport through the Straits of Okhotsk Sea by electromagnetic method Valentina V. Moroz Oceanological zoning of the Kuril Islands area in the spring-summer period Yutaka Nagata Note on the salinity balance in the Okhotsk Sea Alexander D. Nelezin Variability of the Kuroshio Front in 1965-1991 Vladimir I. Ponomarev, Evgeny P. Varlaty & Mikhail Yu. Cheranyev An experimental study of currents in the near-Kuril region of the Pacific Ocean and in the Okhotsk Sea Stephen C. Riser, Gennady I. Yurasov & Mark J. Warner Hydrographic and tracer measurements of the water mass structure and transport in the Okhotsk Sea in early spring Konstantin A. Rogachev & Andrey V. Verkhunov Circulation and water mass structure in the southern Okhotsk Sea, as observed in summer, 1994 Lynne D. Talley North Pacific Intermediate Water formation and the role of the Okhotsk Sea Anatoly S. Vasiliev & Fedor F. Khrapchenkov Seasonal variability of integral water circulation in the Okhotsk Sea B. Sea ice and its relation to circulation and climate V.P. Gavrilo, G.A. Lebedev & A.P. Polyakov Acoustic methods in sea ice dynamics studies Nina M. Pestereva & Larisa A. Starodubtseva The role of the Far-East atmospheric circulation in the formation of the ice cover in the Okhotsk Sea Yoshihiko Sekine Anomalous Oyashio intrusion and its teleconnection with Subarctic North Pacific circulation, sea ice of the Okhotsk Sea and air temperature of the northern Asian continent C. Waves and tides Vladimir A. Luchin Characteristics of the tidal motions in the Kuril Straits George V. Shevtchenko On seasonal variability of tidal constants in the northwestern part of the Okhotsk Sea D. Physical oceanography of the Japan Sea/East Sea Mikhail A. Danchenkov, Kuh Kim, Igor A. Goncharenko & Young-Gyu Kim A “chimney” of cold salt waters near Vladivostok Christopher N.K. Mooers & Hee Sook Kang Preliminary results from a numerical circulation model of the Japan Sea Lev P. Yakunin Influence of ice production on the deep water formation in the Japan Sea 2. Fisheries and Biology Sessions (pdf, 2.8 Mb) A. Communities of the Okhotsk Sea and adjacent waters: composition, structure and dynamics Lubov A. Balkonskaya Exogenous succession of the southwestern Sakhalin algal communities Tatyana A. Belan, Yelena V. Oleynik, Alexander V. Tkalin & Tat’yana S. Lishavskaya Characteristics of pelagic and benthic communities on the North Sakhalin Island shelf Lev N. Bocharov & Vladimir K. Ozyorin Fishery and oceanographic database of Okhotsk Sea Victor V. Lapko Interannual dynamics of the epipelagic ichthyocen structure in the Okhotsk Sea Valentina I. Lapshina Quantitative seasonal and year-to-year changes of phytoplankton in the Okhotsk Sea and off Kuril area of the Pacific Lyudmila N. Luchsheva Biological productivity in anomalous mercury conditions (northern part of Okhotsk Sea) Inna A. Nemirovskaya Origin of hydrocarbons in the ecosystems of coastal region of the Okhotsk Sea Tatyana A. Shatilina Elements of the Pacific South Kuril area ecosystem Vyacheslav P. Shuntov & Yelena P. Dulepova Biota of the Okhotsk Sea: Structure of communities, the interannual dynamics and current status B. Abundance, distribution, dynamics of the common fishes of the Okhotsk Sea Yuri P. Diakov Influence of some abiotic factors on spatial population dynamics of the West Kamchatka flounders (Pleuronectidae) Gordon A. McFarlane, Richard J. Beamish & Larisa M. Zverkova An examination of age estimates of walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) from the Sea of Okhotsk using the burnt otolith method and implications for stock assessment and management Larisa P. Nikolenko Migration of Greenland turbot (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) in the Okhotsk Sea Galina M. Pushnikova Fisheries impact on the Sakhalin-Hokkaido herring population Vidar G. Wespestad Is pollock overfished? C. Salmon of the Okhotsk Sea: biology, abundance and stock identification Vladimir A. Belyaev, Alexander Yu. Zhigalin Epipelagic Far Eastern sardine of the Okhotsk Sea Yuri E. Bregman, Victor V. Pushnikov, Lyudmila G. Sedova & Vladimir Ph. Ivanov A preliminary report on stock status and productive capacity of horsehair crab Erimacrus isenbeckii (Brandt) in the South Kuril Strait Natalia T. Dolganova Mezoplankton distribution in the West Japan Sea Vladimir V. Efremov, Richard L. Wilmot, Christine M. Kondzela, Natalia V. Varnavskaya, Sharon L. Hawkins & Maria E. Malinina Application of pink and chum salmon genetic baseline to fishery management Vyacheslav N. Ivankov & Valentina V. Andreyeva Strategy for culture, breeding and numerous dynamics of Sakhalin salmon populations Alla M. Kovalevskaya, Natalia I. Savelyeva & Dmitry M. Polyakov Primary production in Sakhalin shelf waters Tatyana N. Krupnova Some reasons for resource reduction of Laminaria japonica (Primorye region) Lyudmila N. Luchsheva & Anatoliy I. Botsul Mercury in bottom sediments of the northeastern Okhotsk Sea Pavel A. Luk’yanov, Natalia I. Belogortseva, Alexander A. Bulgakov, Alexander A. Kurika & Olga D. Novikova Lectins and glycosidases from marine macro and micro-organisms of Japan and Okhotsk Seas Boris A. Malyarchuk, Olga A. Radchenko, Miroslava V. Derenko, Andrey G. Lapinski & Leonid L. Solovenchuk PCR-fingerprinting of mitochondrial genome of chum salmon, Oncorhynchus keta Alexander A. Mikheev Chaos and relaxation in dynamics of the pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) returns for two regions Yuri A. Mitrofanov & Larisa N. Lesnikova Fish-culture of Pacific Salmons increases the number of heredity defects Larisa P. Nikolenko Abundance of young halibut along the West Kamchatka shelf in 1982-1992 Sergey A. Nizyaev Living conditions of golden king crab Lithodes aequispina in the Okhotsk Sea and near the Kuril Islands Ludmila A. Pozdnyakova & Alla V. Silina Settlements of Japanese scallop in Reid Pallada Bay (Sea of Japan) Galina M. Pushnikova Features of the Southwest Okhotsk Sea herring Vladimir I. Radchenko & Igor I. Glebov Present state of the Okhotsk herring stock and fisheries outlook Alla V. Silina & Ida I. Ovsyannikova Distribution of the barnacle Balanus rostratus eurostratus near the coasts of Primorye (Sea of Japan) Galina I. Victorovskaya Dependence of urchin Strongylocentrotus intermedius reproduction on water temperature Anatoly F. Volkov, Alexander Y. Efimkin & Valery I. Chuchukalo Feeding habits of Pacific salmon in the Sea of Okhotsk and in the Pacific waters of Kuril Islands in summer 1993 Larisa M. Zverkova & Georgy A. Oktyabrsky Okhotsk Sea walleye pollock stock status Tatyana N. Zvyagintseva, Elena V. Sundukova, Natalia M. Shevchenko & Ludmila A. Elyakova Water soluble polysaccharides of some Far-Eastern seaweeds 3. Biodiversity Program (pdf, 0.2 Mb) A. Biodiversity of island ecosystems and seasides of the North Pacific Larissa A. Gayko Productivity of Japanese scallop Patinopecten yessoensis (IAY) culture in Posieta Bay (Sea of Japan) III APPENDICES 1. List of acronyms 2. List of participants (Document pdf contains 431 pages)

TUNPOP: A simulation of the dynamics and structure of the yellowfin tuna stock and surface fishery of the Eastern Pacific Ocean

ENGLISH: Three distinct versions of TUNP0P, an age-structured computer simulation model of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna, Thunnus albacores, stock and surface tuna fishery, are used to reveal mechanisms which appear to have a significant effect on the fishery dynamics. Real data on this fishery are used to make deductions on the distribution of the fish and to show how that distribution might influence events in the fishery. The most important result of the paper is that the concept of the eastern Pacific yellowfin tuna stock as a homogeneous unit is inadequate to represent the recent history of the fishery. Inferences are made on the size and distribution of the underlying stock as well as its potential yield to the surface fishery as a result of alterations in the level and distribution of the effort. SPANISH: Se han empleado tres versiones diferentes de TUNP0P, un modelo de simulación de la computadora (basado en la estructura de la edad) de la población y la pesca epipelágica del atún aleta amarilla, Tbunnus albacares, del Pacífico oriental, para revelar los mecanismos que parecen tener un efecto importante en la dinámica pesquera. Se emplean los datos verdaderos de esta pesca para hacer deducciones sobre la distribución de los peces y para mostrar cómo puede influir esta distribución en los eventos de pesca. La conclusión más importante de este estudio es que el concepto de que la población del aleta amarilla del Pacífico oriental es una unidad homogénea, es inadecuado para representar la historia reciente de pesca. Se teoriza sobre la talla y distribución de la población subyacente como también sobre su producción potencial en la pesca epipelágica al cambiar el nivel y distribución del esfuerzo.

Assessment of the hydrogeological impacts of aggregate extraction in the Delamere area, Cheshire

This is a technical report on the assessment of the hydrogeological impacts of aggregate extraction activities in the Delamere Area, Cheshire. The first aim of the study was to carry out Stage 3-appropriate assessment, under the EU Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), of the possible hydrogeological impacts of aggregate extraction activities authorised by the Cheshire CC on candidate Special Areas of Conservation (cSAC) on the Delamere sandsheet, Cheshire. Identifying possible impacts if these activities on the hydrogeological environment, construction of a numerical groundwater flow model of the groundwater system to investigate and quantify impacts and to produce a report as required under Stage 3 of the Habitats Regulations. Secondly, to identify the future potential impacts of the continued extraction of sand and gravel reserves from above and below the water tables from within the Delamere sandsheet, thus releasing reserves identified within the Area of Search of the Cheshire Replacement Minerals Local Plan 1999. This aspect of the study should assist in identifying the implications of further working within Delamere for North West sub-regional apportionment.

A hydrological assessment of the Delamere Sandsheets and environs

This is the technical report of a hydrogeological assessment of the Delamere sandsheet and environments by the Environment Agency. The overall objective of the study is to carry out Stage 3-appropriate assessment, under the EU Habitats Directive (92/43/EEC), of the influence of activities permitted by the Agency relating to groundwater on candidate Special Areas of Conservation (cSAC). The geology of Delamere area, based on published and collected information is described in Section2. Groundwater flow and water quality are described in Section 3, including sections on groundwater levels, aquifer properties, groundwater discharge and hydrogeochemisty. A water balance for the sandsheet for the period 2001-2002 is presented in Section 4, and the hydrogeological conceptual model of the area is described in Section 5. The assessment of the possible impacts of Agency-permitted groundwater abstractions on Oakmere and Abbots Moss is presented in Section 6 whilst conclusions and recommendations are given in Section 7.

A stochastic model of temporal variations in monthly temperature, precipitation, snowfall, and resulting snowpack

We report a Monte Carlo representation of the long-term inter-annual variability of monthly snowfall on a detailed (1 km) grid of points throughout the southwest. An extension of the local climate model of the southwestern United States (Stamm and Craig 1992) provides spatially based estimates of mean and variance of monthly temperature and precipitation. The mean is the expected value from a canonical regression using independent variables that represent controls on climate in this area, including orography. Variance is computed as the standard error of the prediction and provides site-specific measures of (1) natural sources of variation and (2) errors due to limitations of the data and poor distribution of climate stations. Simulation of monthly temperature and precipitation over a sequence of years is achieved by drawing from a bivariate normal distribution. The conditional expectation of precipitation. given temperature in each month, is the basis of a numerical integration of the normal probability distribution of log precipitation below a threshold temperature (3°C) to determine snowfall as a percent of total precipitation. Snowfall predictions are tested at stations for which long-term records are available. At Donner Memorial State Park (elevation 1811 meters) a 34-year simulation - matching the length of instrumental record - is within 15 percent of observed for mean annual snowfall. We also compute resulting snowpack using a variation of the model of Martinec et al. (1983). This allows additional tests by examining spatial patterns of predicted snowfall and snowpack and their hydrologic implications.