12 resultados para Mixed-effect models
em Aquatic Commons
Resumo:
Body-size measurement errors are usually ignored in stock assessments, but may be important when body-size data (e.g., from visual sur veys) are imprecise. We used experiments and models to quantify measurement errors and their effects on assessment models for sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus). Errors in size data obscured modes from strong year classes and increased frequency and size of the largest and smallest sizes, potentially biasing growth, mortality, and biomass estimates. Modeling techniques for errors in age data proved useful for errors in size data. In terms of a goodness of model fit to the assessment data, it was more important to accommodate variance than bias. Models that accommodated size errors fitted size data substantially better. We recommend experimental quantification of errors along with a modeling approach that accommodates measurement errors because a direct algebraic approach was not robust and because error parameters were diff icult to estimate in our assessment model. The importance of measurement errors depends on many factors and should be evaluated on a case by case basis.
Resumo:
Studies on nutrient utilisation and growth of rohu (Labeo rohita) fingerlings (3.13-4.09 g) raised on seven feeding schedules under laboratory conditions (26.3-33.5°C) showed that two days regular feeding on Diet B (high protein, 38.90%) resulted in maximum growth and protein retention efficiency. While regular feeding on low protein diet (Diet A) resulted in poor nutrient utilisation and growth of fish, high protein diet (Diet B) did not show any significant difference in growth from the mixed 2A-3B schedules but exhibited comparatively low protein retention efficiency. The other feeding schedules were 1A-2B, 1A-3B, 2A-2B and 2A-4B, where the numerical value refers to the number of days for continuous feeding of a particular diet. The diets A and B served as the controls which contained 3.40 and 3.67 kcal/g gross energy respectively. The 2A-3B feeding schedule was also found to be highly economic as an expenditure of Rs.11/- only was required for raising the body weight by one kilo as against Rs.17/- with high protein diet (Diet B) as calculated
Resumo:
An assessment of the status of the Atlantic stock of red drum is conducted using recreational and commercial data from 1986 through 1998. This assessment updates data and analyses from the 1989, 1991, 1992 and 1995 stock assessments on Atlantic coast red drum (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996). Since 1981, coastwide recreational catches ranged between 762,300 pounds in 1980 and 2,623,900 pounds in 1984, while commercial landings ranged between 60,900 pounds in 1997 and 422,500 pounds in 1984. In weight of fish caught, Atlantic red drum constitute predominantly a recreational fishery (ranging between 85 and 95% during the 1990s). Commercially, red drum continue to be harvested as part of mixed species fisheries. Using available length-frequency distributions and age-length keys, recreational and commercial catches are converted to catch in numbers at age. Separable and tuned virtual population analyses are conducted on the catch in numbers at age to obtain estimates of fishing mortality rates and population size (including recruitment to age 1). In tum, these estimates of fishing mortality rates combined with estimates of growth (length and weight), sex ratios, sexual maturity and fecundity are used to estimate yield per recruit, escapement to age 4, and static (or equilibrium) spawning potential ratio (static SPR, based on both female biomass and egg production). Three virtual analysis approaches (separable, spreadsheet, and FADAPT) were applied to catch matrices for two time periods (early: 1986-1991, and late: 1992-1998) and two regions (Northern: North Carolina and north, and Southern: South Carolina through east coast of Florida). Additional catch matrices were developed based on different treatments for the catch-and-release recreationally-caught red drum (B2-type). These approaches included assuming 0% mortality (BASEO) versus 10% mortality for B2 fish. For the 10% mortality on B2 fish, sizes were assumed the same as caught fish (BASEl), or positive difference in size distribution between the early period and the later period (DELTA), or intermediate (PROP). Hence, a total of 8 catch matrices were developed (2 regions, and 4 B2 assumptions for 1986-1998) to which the three VPA approaches were applied. The question of when offshore emigration or reduced availability begins (during or after age 3) continues to be a source of bias that tends to result in overestimates of fishing mortality. Additionally, the continued assumption (Vaughan and Helser, 1990; Vaughan 1992; 1993; 1996) of no fishing mortality on adults (ages 6 and older), causes a bias that results in underestimates of fishing mortality for adult ages (0 versus some positive value). Because of emigration and the effect of the slot limit for the later period, a range in relative exploitations of age 3 to age 2 red drum was considered. Tuning indices were developed from the MRFSS, and state indices for use in the spreadsheet and FADAPT VPAs. The SAFMC Red Drum Assessment Group (Appendix A) favored the FADAPT approach with catch matrix based on DELTA and a selectivity for age 3 relative to age 2 of 0.70 for the northern region and 0.87 for the southern region. In the northern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 1.3% for the period 1987-1991 to approximately 18% (15% and 20%) for the period 1992-1998. For the southern region, estimates of static SPR increased from about 0.5% for the period 1988-1991 to approximately 15% for the period 1992-1998. Population models used in this assessment (specifically yield per recruit and static spawning potential ratio) are based on equilibrium assumptions: because no direct estimates are available as to the current status of the adult stock, model results imply potential longer term, equilibrium effects. Because current status of the adult stock is unknown, a specific rebuilding schedule cannot be determined. However, the duration of a rebuilding schedule should reflect, in part, a measure of the generation time of the fish species under consideration. For a long-lived, but relatively early spawning, species as red drum, mean generation time would be on the order of 15 to 20 years based on age-specific egg production. Maximum age is 50 to 60 years for the northern region, and about 40 years for the southern region. The ASMFC Red Drum Board's first phase recovery goal of increasing %SPR to at least 10% appears to have been met. (PDF contains 79 pages)
Resumo:
Blood meal and full fat soyabean meal were mixed in different proportions to give 0%, 10%, 25%, 50%, 75%, 90% and 100% meal in the protein fraction of the diet and fed to Claria anguillaris fingerlings in floating hapas. The growth performance of the fingerlings were monitored for 84 days. At the end of the experiment the mean weight of the fingerlings increased in the level of blood meal up to 50% blood meal in the diet after which there was a decline in the mean weight of the fish. This same level of blood meal gave the best specific growth rate, feed conversion efficiency and protein efficiency ratio. Thus the nutritive value of blood meal was enhanced by the addition of an equal level of full fat soyabean meal in the diet
Resumo:
The natural mortality rate (M) of fish varies with size and age, although it is often assumed to be constant in stock assessments. Misspecification of M may bias important assessment quantities. We simulated fishery data, using an age-based population model, and then conducted stock assessments on the simulated data. Results were compared to known values. Misspecification of M had a negligible effect on the estimation of relative stock depletion; however, misspecification of M had a large effect on the estimation of parameters describing the stock recruitment relationship, age-specific selectivity, and catchability. If high M occurs in juvenile and old fish, but is misspecified in the assessment model, virgin biomass and catchability are often poorly estimated. In addition, stock recruitment relationships are often very difficult to estimate, and steepness values are commonly estimated at the upper bound (1.0) and overfishing limits tend to be biased low. Natural mortality can be estimated in assessment models if M is constant across ages or if selectivity is asymptotic. However if M is higher in old fish and selectivity is dome-shaped, M and the selectivity cannot both be adequately estimated because of strong interactions between M and selectivity.
Resumo:
King mackerel (Scomberomorus cavalla) are ecologically and economically important scombrids that inhabit U.S. waters of the Gulf of Mexico (GOM) and Atlantic Ocean (Atlantic). Separate migratory groups, or stocks, migrate from eastern GOM and southeastern U.S. Atlantic to south Florida waters where the stocks mix during winter. Currently, all winter landings from a management-defined south Florida mixing zone are attributed to the GOM stock. In this study, the stock composition of winter landings across three south Florida sampling zones was estimated by using stock-specific otolith morphological variables and Fourier harmonics. The mean accuracies of the jackknifed classifications from stepwise linear discriminant function analysis of otolith shape variables ranged from 66−76% for sex-specific models. Estimates of the contribution of the Atlantic stock to winter landings, derived from maximum likelihood stock mixing models, indicated the contribution was highest off southeastern Florida (as high as 82.8% for females in winter 2001−02) and lowest off southwestern Florida (as low as 14.5% for females in winter 2002−03). Overall, results provided evidence that the Atlantic stock contributes a certain, and perhaps a significant (i.e., ≥50%), percentage of landings taken in the management-defined winter mixing zone off south Florida, and the practice of assigning all winter mixing zone landings to the GOM stock should
Resumo:
Humpback whales (Megaptera novaeangliae) are significant marine consumers. To examine the potential effect of predation by humpback whales, consumption (kg of prey daily) and prey removal (kg of prey annually) were modeled for a current and historic feeding aggregation of humpback whales off northeastern Kodiak Island, Alaska. A current prey biomass removal rate was modeled by using an estimate of the 2002 humpback whale abundance. A historic rate of removal was modeled from a prewhaling abundance estimate (population size prior to 1926). Two provisional humpback whale diets were simulated in order to model consumption rate. One diet was based on the stomach contents of whales that were commercially harvested from Port Hobron whaling station in Kodiak, Alaska, between 1926 and 1937, and the second diet, based on local prey availability as determined by fish surveys conducted within the study area, was used to model consumption rate by the historic population. The latter diet was also used to model consumption by the current population and to project a consumption rate if the current population were to grow to reach the historic population size. Models of these simulated diets showed that the current population likely removes nearly 8.83
Resumo:
There is an unusual relationship between catch per unit effort and effort in the Lake Kariba sardine (Limnothrissa miodon) fishery. This is apparently a results of ecological changes in the lake following the decline of the Salvinia mats that existed there until 1973. Predictive models based on the entire data set (1974-89) are of limited value because they are influenced by the rapid decline in catch per unit effort that took place from 1974 to 1978. A model based on the 1980-89 data indicates that the current catch could be increased substantially. Some empirical models and features of the sardine's biology suggest that it is a realistic model.
Resumo:
This is the report on the Effect of Abstraction on Fish and Fisheries presented at the 24th IFM Annual Study Course, The Changing Face of Fisheries September 1993 at Cardiff. Water is abstracted from rivers for a wide variety of uses and causing potential for conflicts between abstracters, fisheries and conservation interests, especially during natural low flows. It looks at the potential effects that flow reduction has over various stages of salmonids at various stages of their life history. The flow at the time of smolt migration has been found to be positively correlated with the number of returning adults, and flow is considered to be one of the most important environmental factors inducing salmonids to enter fresh water and ascend rivers. The importance of time series data on fish stocks and angling success together with models which ultimately relate discharge to standing stock are discussed in relation to the setting up of Minimum Acceptable Flows.
Resumo:
Otolith thermal marking is an efficient method for mass marking hatchery-reared salmon and can be used to estimate the proportion of hatchery fish captured in a mixed-stock fishery. Accuracy of the thermal pattern classification depends on the prominence of the pattern, the methods used to prepare and view the patterns, and the training and experience of the personnel who determine the presence or absence of a particular pattern. Estimating accuracy rates is problematic when no secondary marking is available and no error-free standards exist. Agreement measures, such as kappa (κ), provide a relative measure of the reliability of the determinations when independent readings by two readers are available, but the magnitude of κ can be influenced by the proportion of marked fish. If a third reader is used or if two or more groups of paired readings are examined, latent class models can provide estimates of the error rates of each reader. Applications of κ and latent class models are illustrated by a program providing contribution estimates of hatchery-reared chum and sockeye salmon in Southeast Alaska.
Resumo:
In order to evolve suitable electrical fishing gear for inland waters, preliminary experiments have been conducted to observe effect of a. c. currents on Catla catla at voltages of 30, 90 and 120, pH 7.3 and 8.4, temperature 48°F, 78°F and 105°F, distance between electrodes 25 cm, 50 cm and 75 cm, size range of fish 100 mm, to 235 mm. Apparatus used was a 5 kw; a. c. 60 cycles generator with resistance control. Larger sizes of fish were more prone to electric shock. Higher temperature increases the intensity of the shock, while variation of pH between 7.3 to 8.4 did not materially affect the intensity of the shock. Fishing with a mixed population of Catla catla and Ophicephalus punctatus gave a greater percentage of mortality for the latter.
Resumo:
Temperature profile of fish chikuwa was taken during microwave cooking at 100 power level for different durations and subjected to organoleptic evaluation. Moisture content and organoleptic quality of fish chikuwa paste mixed with different levels of moisture and cooked at 100 power levels for 6 minutes were analysed. Microwave cooked fish chikuwa with standardized recipe was heated in microwave oven with hot air at different temperature for different durations. Fish chikuwa microwave cooked at 100 power level for 6 minutes had higher scores for all attributes as compared to those cooked for different durations and also fulfill the condition of pasteurisation of fish chikuwa. Fish chikuwa prepared with 35% moisture had better scores for all attributes unlike those of other levels. Heating of microwave pasteurised fish chikuwa at different temperatures for different durations could not achieve the desired brown colour.