Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish

Foreword [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Acknowledgements PHASE 1 [pdf, 0.2 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (July 19–20, 2007, Seattle, U.S.A.) Background Links to Other Programs Workshop Format Session I. Status of climate change scenarios in the PICES region Session II. What are the expected impacts of climate change on regional oceanography and what are some scenarios for these drivers for the next 10 years? Session III. Recruitment forecasting Session IV. What models are out there? How is climate linked to the model? Session V. Assumptions regarding future fishing scenarios and enhancement activities Session VI Where do we go from here? References Appendix 1.1 List of Participants PHASE 2 [pdf, 0.7 MB] Summary of the PICES/NPRB Workshop on Forecasting Climate Impacts on Future Production of Commercially Exploited Fish and Shellfish (October 30, 2007, Victoria, Canada) Background Workshop Agenda Forecast Feasibility Format of Information Modeling Approaches Coupled bio-physical models Stock assessment projection models Comparative approaches Similarities in Data Requests Opportunities for Coordination with Other PICES Groups and International Efforts BACKGROUND REPORTS PREPARED FOR THE PHASE 2 WORKSHOP Northern California Current (U.S.) groundfish production by Melissa Haltuch Changes in sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) recruitment in relation to oceanographic conditions by Michael J. Schirripa Northern California Current (British Columbia) Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) production by Caihong Fu and Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) sablefish (Anoplopoma fimbria) production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) pink (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) and chum (O. keta) salmon production by Richard Beamish Northern California Current (British Columbia) ocean shrimp (Pandalus jordani) production by Caihong Fu Alaska salmon production by Anne Hollowed U.S. walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma) production in the eastern Bering Sea and Gulf of Alaska by Kevin Bailey and Anne Hollowed U.S. groundfish production in the eastern Bering Sea by Tom Wilderbuer U.S. crab production in the eastern Bering Sea by Gordon H. Kruse Forecasting Japanese commercially exploited species by Shin-ichi Ito, Kazuaki Tadokoro and Yasuhiro Yamanka Russian fish production in the Japan/East Sea by Yury Zuenko, Vladimir Nuzhdin and Natalia Dolganova Chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) production in Korea by Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim and Hyunju Seo Jack mackerel (Trachurus japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee and Chang-Ik Zhang Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) production in Korea by Jae Bong Lee, Sukyung Kang, Suam Kim, Chang-Ik Zhang and Jin Yeong Kim References Appendix 2.1 List of Participants PHASE 3 [pdf, < 0.1 MB] Summary of the PICES Workshop on Linking Global Climate Model Output to (a) Trends in Commercial Species Productivity and (b) Changes in Broader Biological Communities in the World’s Oceans (May 18, 2008, Gijón, Spain) Appendix 3.1 List of Participants Appendix 3.2 Workshop Agenda (Document contains 101 pages)

Identification of larval sea basses (Centropristis spp.) using ribosomal DNA-specific molecular assays

The identification of sea bass (Centropristis) larvae to species is difficult because of similar morphological characters, spawning times, and overlapping species ranges. Black sea bass (Centropristis striata) is an important fishery species and is currently considered to be overfished south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. We describe methods for identifying three species of sea bass larvae using polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) assays based on species-specific amplification of rDNA internal transcribed spacer regions. The assays were tested against DNA of ten other co-occurring reef fish species to ensure the assay's specificity. Centropristis larvae were collected on three cruises during cross-shelf transects and were used to validate the assays. Seventy-six Centropristis larva were assayed and 69 (91%) were identified successfully. DNA was not amplified from 5% of the larvae and identification was inconclusive for 3% of the larvae. Those assays can be used to identify sea bass eggs and larvae and will help to assess spawning locations, spawning times, and larval dispersal.

Stock assessment of loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles and An assessment of the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on the loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic

On September 7, 2000 the National Marine Fisheries Service announced that it was reinitiating consultation under Section 7 of the Endangered Species Act on pelagic fisheries for swordfish, sharks, tunas, and billfish. 1 Bycatch of a protected sea turtle species is considered a take under the Endangered Species Act (PL93-205). On June 30, 2000 NMFS completed a Biological Opinion on an amendment to the Highly Migratory Pelagic Fisheries Management Plan that concluded that the continued operation of the pelagic longline fishery was likely to jeopardize the continued existence of loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles.2 Since that Biological Opinion was issued NMFS concluded that further analyses of observer data and additional population modeling of loggerhead sea turtles was needed to determine more precisely the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on turtles. 3,4 Hence, the reinitiation of consultation. The documents that follow constitute the scientific review and synthesis of information pertaining to the narrowly defined reinitiation of consultation: the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles The document is in 3 parts, plus 5 appendices. Part I is a stock assessment of loggerhead sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic. Part II is a stock assessment of leatherback sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic. Part III is an assessment of the impact of the pelagic longline fishery on loggerhead and leatherback sea turtles of the Western North Atlantic. These documents were prepared by the NMFS Southeast Fisheries Science Center staff and academic colleagues at Duke University and Dalhousie University. Personnel involved from the SEFSC include Joanne Braun-McNeill, Lisa Csuzdi, Craig Brown, Jean Cramer, Sheryan Epperly, Steve Turner, Wendy Teas, Nancy Thompson, Wayne Witzell, Cynthia Yeung, and also Jeff Schmid under contract from the University or Miami. Our academic colleagues, Ransom Myers, Keith Bowen, and Leah Gerber from Dalhousie University and Larry Crowder and Melissa Snover from Duke University, also recipients of a Pew Charitable Trust Grant for a Comprehensive Study of the Ecological Impacts of the Worldwide Pelagic Longline Industry, made significant contributions to the quantitative analyses and we are very grateful for their collaboration. We appreciate the reviews of the stock definition sections on loggerheads and leatherbacks by Brian Bowen, University of Florida, and Peter Dutton, National Marine Fisheries Service Southwest Fisheries Science Center, respectively, and the comments of the NMFS Center of Independent Experts reviewers Robert Mohn, Ian Poiner, and YouGan Wang on the entire document. We also wish to acknowledge all the unpublished data used herein which were contributed by many researchers, especially the coordinators and volunteers of the nesting beach surveys and the sea turtle stranding and salvage network and the contributors to the Cooperative Marine Turtle Tagging Program. (PDF contains 349 pages)

Residential Docks and Piers: Inventory of laws, regulations, and policies for the Southeastern United States

While the homes threatened by erosion and the developer illegally filling in marshlands are the projects that make the headlines, for many state regulatory programs, it’s the residential docks and piers that take up the most time. When is a dock too long? What about crossing extended property lines? And at what point does a creek have too many docks? There are no easy answers to any of the dock and pier related questions. Each state has to craft the laws and policies that are best for its natural resources and its political and legal environment. At the same time, mistakes in judgment can be costly for the organization, the homeowner, and the natural resources. At the request of the Georgia Coastal Management Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Coastal Services Center compiled an inventory of dock information for four states—Georgia, Florida, North Carolina, and South Carolina. Federal laws, state laws and regulations, permitting policies, and contact information are included in a tabular format that is easy to use. (PDF contaions 18 pages)

Measurement errors in body size of sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus) and their effect on stock assessment models

Body-size measurement errors are usually ignored in stock assessments, but may be important when body-size data (e.g., from visual sur veys) are imprecise. We used experiments and models to quantify measurement errors and their effects on assessment models for sea scallops (Placopecten magellanicus). Errors in size data obscured modes from strong year classes and increased frequency and size of the largest and smallest sizes, potentially biasing growth, mortality, and biomass estimates. Modeling techniques for errors in age data proved useful for errors in size data. In terms of a goodness of model fit to the assessment data, it was more important to accommodate variance than bias. Models that accommodated size errors fitted size data substantially better. We recommend experimental quantification of errors along with a modeling approach that accommodates measurement errors because a direct algebraic approach was not robust and because error parameters were diff icult to estimate in our assessment model. The importance of measurement errors depends on many factors and should be evaluated on a case by case basis.

Effects of a large fishing closure on benthic communities in the western Gulf of Maine: recovery from the effects of gillnets and otter trawls

The recovery of benthic communities inside the western Gulf of Maine fishing closure area was evaluated by comparing invertebrate assemblages at sites inside and outside of the closure four to six years after the closure was established. The major restriction imposed by the closure was a year-round prohibition of bottom gillnets and otter trawls. A total of 163 seafloor sites (~half inside and half outside the closure) within a 515-km2 study area were sampled with some combination of Shipek grab, Wildco box corer, or underwater video. Bottom types ranged from mud (silt and clay) to boulders, and the effects of the closure on univariate measures (total density, biomass, taxonomic richness) of benthos varied widely among sediment types. For sites with predominantly mud sediments, there were mixed effects on inside and outside infauna and no effect on epifauna. For sites with mainly sand sediments, there were higher density, biomass, and taxonomic richness for infauna inside the closure, but no significant effects on epifauna. For sites dominated by gravel (which included boulders in some areas), there were no effects on infauna but strong effects on epifaunal density and taxonomic richness. For fishing gear, the data indicated that infauna recovered in sand from the impacts of otter trawls operated inside the closure but that they did not recover in mud, and that epifauna recovered on gravel bottoms from the impact of gillnets used inside the closure. The magnitudes of impact and recovery, however, cannot be inferred directly from our data because of a confounding factor of different fishing intensities outside the closure for a direct comparison of preclosure and postclosure data. The overall negative impact of trawls is likely underestimated by our data, whereas the negative impact of gillnets is likely overestimated.

The use of multibeam sonar mapping techniques to refine population estimates of the endangered white abalone (Haliotis sorenseni)

Multibeam sonar mapping techniques provide detailed benthic habitat information that can be combined with the data on species-specific habitat preferences to provide highly accurate calculations of populations in a particular area. The amount of suitable habitat available for the endangered white abalone (Haliotis sorenseni) was quantified to aid in obtaining an accurate estimate of the number of remaining individuals at two offshore banks and one island site off the coast of southern California. Habitat was mapped by using multibeam sonar survey techniques and categorized by using rugosity and topographic position analysis. Abalone densities were evaluated by using a remotely operated vehicle and video transect methods. The total amount of suitable habitat at these three sites was far greater than that previously estimated. Therefore, although present estimates of white abalone densities are several orders of magnitude lower than historic estimates, the total population is likely larger than previously reported because of the additional amount of habitat surveyed in this study.

Preliminary use of oxygen stable isotopes and the 1983 El Niño to assess the accuracy of aging black rockfish (Sebastes melanops)

Black rockfish (Sebastes melanops) range from California to Alaska and are found in both nearshore and shallow continental shelf waters (Love et al., 2002). Juveniles and subadults inhabit shallow water, moving deeper as they grow. Generally, adults are found at depths shallower than 55 meters and reportedly live up to 50 years. The species is currently managed by using information from an age-structured stock assessment model (Ralston and Dick, 2003).

A Preliminary Study of the Marine Biota at Navassa Island, Caribbean Sea

A preliminary study of reef fish and sharks was conducted at Navassa Island in the Caribbean Sea during a 24-h period beginning 9 September 1998. Conducting a study at Navassa Island was of particular interest because exploitation of Navassa Island’s fishery resources has been considered minimal due to its remote location (southwest of the Windward Passage, Caribbean Sea) and lack of human habitation. Reef fish (and associated habitats) were assessed with stationary underwater video cameras at 3 survey sites; sharks were assessed by bottom longlining at 5 survey sites. Fifty-seven reef fish identifications to lowest possible taxon were made from video footage. Longline catches produced 3 shark species and 3 incidental catch species. When results from the 1998 National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) project are combined with a previous 1977 NMFS survey of Navassa Island, 27 fish families, 79 fish identifications to lowest possible taxon, 4 invertebrate orders or families, 3 coraline families, and 2 macroalgae phyla are reported.

Combining stable isotopes and skeletal growth marks to detect habitat shifts in juvenile loggerhead sea turtles Caretta caretta

Understanding the phase and timing of ontogenetic habitat shifts underlies the study of a species’ life history and population dynamics. This information is especially critical to the conservation and management of threatened and endangered species, such as the loggerhead sea turtle Caretta caretta. The early life of loggerheads consists of a terrestrial egg and hatchling stage, a posthatchling and juvenile oceanic, pelagic feeding stage, and a juvenile neritic, primarily benthic feeding stage. In the present study, novel approaches were applied to explore the timing of the loggerhead ontogenetic shift from pelagic to benthic habitats. The most recent years of somatic growth are recorded as annual marks in humerus cross sections. A consistent growth mark pattern in benthic juvenile loggerheads was identified, with narrow growth marks in the interior of the bone transitioning to wider growth marks at the exterior, indicative of a sharp increase in growth rates at the transitional growth mark. This increase in annual growth is hypothesized to correlate with the ontogenetic shift from pelagic to benthic habitats. Stable isotopes of carbon and nitrogen just interior and exterior to the transitional growth mark, as well as stable isotopes from pelagic and benthic flora, fauna and loggerhead stomach contents, were analyzed to determine whether this transition related to a diet shift. The results clearly indicate that a dietary shift from oceanic/pelagic to neritic/benthic feeding corresponds to a transitional growth mark. The combination of stable isotope analysis with skeletochronology can elucidate the ecology of cryptic life history stages during loggerhead ontogeny.

Ciguatera Fish Poisoning: treatment, prevention and management

Ciguatera Fish Poisoning (CFP) is the most frequently reported seafood-toxin illness in the world, and it causes substantial physical and functional impact. It produces a myriad of gastrointestinal, neurologic and/or cardiovascular symptoms which last days to weeks, or even months. Although there are reports of symptom amelioration with some interventions (e.g. IV mannitol), the appropriate treatment for CFP remains unclear to many physicians. We review the literature on the treatments for CFP, including randomized controlled studies and anecdotal reports. The article is intended to clarify treatment options, and provide information about management and prevention of CFP, for emergency room physicians, poison control information providers, other health care providers, and patients.

Validation and interpretation of annual skeletal marks in loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) sea turtles

Numerous studies have applied skeletochronology to sea turtle species. Because many of the studies have lacked validation, the application of this technique to sea turtle age estimation has been called into question. To address this concern, we obtained humeri from 13 known-age Kemp’s ridley (Lepidochelys kempii) and two loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtles for the purposes of examining the growth marks and comparing growth mark counts to actual age. We found evidence for annual deposition of growth marks in both these species. Corroborative results were found in Kemp’s ridley sea turtles from a comparison of death date and amount of bone growth following the completion of the last growth mark (n=76). Formation of the lines of arrested growth in Kemp’s ridley sea turtles consistently occurred in the spring for animals that strand dead along the mid- and south U.S. Atlantic coast. For both Kemp’s ridley and loggerhead sea turtles, we also found a proportional allometry between bone growth (humerus dimensions) and somatic growth (straight carapace length), indicating that size-at-age and growth rates can be estimated from dimensions of early growth marks. These results validate skeletochronology as a method for estimating age in Kemp’s ridley and loggerhead sea turtles from the southeast United States.

Radiometric validation of age, growth, and longevity for the blackgill rockfish (Sebastes melanostomus)

As nearshore fish populations decline, many commercial fishermen have shifted fishing effort to deeper continental slope habitats to target fishes for which biological information is limited. One such fishery that developed in the northeastern Pacific Ocean in the early 1980s was for the blackgill rockfish (Sebastes melanostomus), a deep-dwelling (300−800 m) species that congregates over rocky pinnacles, mainly from southern California to southern Oregon. Growth zone-derived age estimates from otolith thin sections were compared to ages obtained from the radioactive disequilibria of 210Pb, in relation to its parent, 226Ra, in otolith cores of blackgill rockfish. Age estimates were validated up to 41 years, and a strong pattern of agreement supported a longevity exceeding 90 years. Age and length data fitted to the von Bertalanffy growth function indicated that blackgill rockfish are slow-growing (k= 0.040 females, 0.068 males) and that females grow slower than males, but reach a greater length. Age at 50% maturity, derived from previously published length-at-maturity estimates, was 17 years for males and 21 years for females. The results of this study agree with general life history traits already recognized for many Sebastes species, such as long life, slow growth, and late age at maturation. These traits may undermine the sustainability of blackgill rockfish populations when heavy fishing pressure, such as that which occurred in the 1980s, is applied.