Periodic autoregressive moving average models for the analysis of streamflow [abstract]

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Streamflow values show definite seasonal patterns in their month-to-month correlation structure. The structure also seems to vary as a function of the type of stream (coastal versus mountain or humid versus arid region). The standard autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series model is incapable of reproducing this correlation structure. ... A periodic ARMA time series model is one in which an ARMA model is fitted to each month or season but the parameters of the model are constrained to be periodic according to a Fourier series. This constraint greatly reduces the number of parameters but still leaves the flexibility for matching the seasonally varying correlograms.

Semi-intensive shrimp farming system of Kerala, India: a production function analysis

An analysis of the factor-product relationship in the semi-intensive shrimp farming system of Kerala, farm basis and hectare basis, we are attempted and the results reported in this paper. The Cobb-Douglas model, in which the physical relationship between input and output is estimated, and the marginal analysis then employed to evaluate the producer behaviour, was used for the analysis. The study was based on empirical data collected during November 1994 to May 1996, covering three seasons, from 21 farms spread over Alappuzha, Ernakulam and Kasaragod districts of the state. The sample covered a total area of 61.06 ha. Of the 11 explanatory variables considered in the model, the size of the farm, casual labour and chemical fertilizers were found statistically significant. It was also observed that the factors such as age of pond, experience of the farmer, feed, miscellaneous costs, number of seed stocked and skilled labour contributed positively to the output. The estimated industry production function exhibited unitary economies of scale. The estimated mean output was 3937 kg/ha. The test of multi-co-linearity showed that there is no problem of dominant variable. On the basis of the marginal product and the given input-output prices, the optimum amounts of seed, feed and casual labour were estimated. They were about 97139 seed, 959 kg of feed and 585 man-days of casual labour per farm. This indicated the need for reducing the stocking density and amount of feed from the present levels, in order to maximise profit. Based on the finding of the study, suggestions for improving the industry production function are proposed.